7-20-11

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets MLB Betting Preview
By: Matty Simo



Saint Louis Cardinals at New York Mets (-107, 8.5)

The St. Louis Cardinals will look to stay in the hunt for the National League Central Division crown on Wednesday when they visit the New York Mets in the second game of a three-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. (PT) on ESPN.

St. Louis dropped two of three games at Cincinnati following the All-Star break and close out a nine-game road trip at Pittsburgh this weekend against the Pirates, one of the surprise contenders in the NL Central this year.

Meanwhile, the Mets are simply trying to stay out of the cellar in the NL East standings where Philadelphia holds a double-digit lead over three of the other four teams in the division. They have already unloaded closer Francisco Rodriguez to Milwaukee, and a fire sale may be coming if the team continues to slide.

There are a couple positives for New York, though. St. Louis could be flat with Pittsburgh on deck, playing the Mets in between a pair of divisional opponents. The Cardinals are also sending a struggling Kyle McClellan to the mound, as he looks to break a personal five-game losing streak. He has been favored in three of those games.

McClellan (6-6, 4.24 ERA) has not pitched well during his skid, but he also has not received much run support either. He is 0-5 in his past six starts with a 5.03 ERA, and St. Louis has scored more than two runs only once over that stretch.

Even worse, the Cardinals have totaled just four runs in his last five outings combined. The ‘under’ has cashed each of the last three times he has gone to the mound.

New York starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (4-8, 3.70) has seen his team win four of his last five starts – all as an underdog – although he has just a 1-1 record to show for it. Two of those wins came at home, where Dickey is only 1-6 in 10 starts this season with a 4.10 ERA.

The veteran knuckleballer is nine years older than McClellan and has had a difficult time for the most part vs. St. Louis during his career with a 7.36 ERA in four games. Dickey has seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 in his past four outings overall.

These teams had not faced each other this season before Tuesday’s series opener. They split six meetings last year, with Dickey and the Mets blanking the Cardinals 4-0 in the final matchup between them. He pitched 8 1/3 strong innings, allowing four hits with two walks and two strikeouts.

The ‘over’ had cashed in the previous three meetings between the two clubs.

Wednesday’s high temperature in Flushing is expected to reach 89 degrees with a 20 percent chance of rain under partly cloudy skies.

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Wednesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Jeff Karstens (8-4, 2.34 ERA), Pittsburgh Pirates

Karstens is burning up with a 3-0 record and a 1.17 ERA over his last three starts and was just named the NL’s Player of the Week. His last outing was a doozy as he went the distance in blanking the Houston Astros with just 83 pitches.

"They swung at a lot of early pitches, and that helped me out," Karstens told reporters. "It's just one of those things, going out and having fun, sticking with the game plan and letting the defense work behind me."

Brandon Morrow (6-4, 4.37), Toronto Blue Jays

The turning point in Brandon Morrow’s season may have come when he was hammered for nine earned runs against the Red Sox back on June 11. Since then, he has pitched the Jays to six straight victories.

He has allowed more than three earned runs only once during that stretch and is coming off a 7-1 over the Yankees. Morrow gave up one run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings while striking out six.


SLUMPING

Jake Arrieta (9-6, 5.10 ERA), Baltimore Orioles

Arrieta has just one win in his last five starts and was touched for five runs and two homers in taking a no-decision against Cleveland.

“When you only put up two zeroes and you only get through five, it’s kind of an indication things didn’t go very well,” Arrieta told reporters.

Arrieta has now served up two home runs in three of his last five starts and is working on 7.90 ERA and a 2.12 WHIP over his last three outings.

Brett Myers (3-10, 4.86 ERA), Houston Astros

Myers seems to find his way into the Slumping section every time he climbs the hill, which shouldn’t be overly surprising with a measly three wins on his resume.

However, while he owns a fat 6.61 ERA over his last three starts – all losses – Myers deserved better in his last outing. He struck out a season-high 11 batters in a solid six-inning performance against Pittsburgh. Myers picked up another loss despite allowing just three runs on five hits.

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HOT LINES

Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-140, 7.5)

Heading into Tuesday night’s action the Yankees and Rays had played over the total in 17 of their last 25 meetings. Wednesday’s game looks like it might continue that trend.

The Yankees send Freddy Garcia to the mound and he had some problems in his last start, allowing five runs on seven hits over five innings of work in a blowout loss to the Blue Jays. He struck out five batters, but also walked four.

What’s more troublesome than the numbers is the fact that his split-finger fastball didn’t have any bite at all and Garcia got out of his rhythm, which usually runs at break-neck speed.

“They hit the ball. There’s no excuse,” Garcia told reporters. “I don’t like excuses. I have to be ready, that’s all.”

David Price hasn’t been his normal self lately either. He gave up three homers in his last outing and owns a 5.82 ERA over his last three.

PICK: Over


Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (+115, 7)

Johnny Cueto has been pretty good recently, leading Cincinnati to wins in five of his last seven starts and maybe he’s putting it all together.

He hasn’t allowed a homer in three starts and gave up only six runs over that span.

Then again, he isn’t the shutdown, dominant pitcher he has shown flashes of in the past. Cueto has struck out just 52 batters so far this season and still has problems with control at times so it figures to reason that he still isn’t all the way back from his stint on the DL.

Cincinnati has played over in seven of the last nine times Cueto has taken on the Pittsburgh Pirates, but we see that trend coming to an end with Jeff Karstens taking the ball for the Bucs.

Karstens has allowed more than two runs just once since May 3.

PICK: Under

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LADY LUCK

Wednesday's Best WNBA Bets

Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics (-1.5, 155.5)

If you find yourself glued to the television Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. ET, you either really love the WNBA or are in desperate need of a new summer hobby.

Either way, this could turn out to be an ugly game. Atlanta has covered the number in just two of its 13 games this season while Washington has covered in only three of its last 10.

On the plus side, both clubs are coming off wins, but neither club plays much defense.

We’ll jump on the Mystics at home in this spot after they earned a huge 22-point comeback win against Los Angeles, downing the Sparks in overtime as a 12.5-point underdog.

“They have big hearts and have played through injuries, played through disappointment, played through a lot of things and have tremendous character and refused to give up. I'm very proud of them,” Mystics coach Trudi Lacey told reporters.

PICK: Washington


Minnesota Ly*x at Phoenix Mercury (-4.5, 184.5)

There’s a lot to like about the Minnesota Ly*x. They play great defense, are tough inside and have been a solid bet both at home and on the road.

But when the Ly*x are facing the Mercury, you can throw all that out the window.

Phoenix has won and covered each of the last four meetings between the two teams, including a 112-105 win over Minnesota.

We’re going to jump back on the Mercury, who have won 10 of their last 11 games and covered in nine of those. That said, we aren’t expected a shootout like the last time these teams hooked up and are also leaning a bit toward the under.

Both clubs have been pretty solid defensively lately.

PICK: Phoenix

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Wednesday’s Betting Tips: Tigers SP Makes MLB Debut

Who's Hot

MLB: Atlanta has won eight of its last 10 as an underdog and 18 of its last 24 overall.

MLB: The under is 7-1 in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ last eight games.

WNBA: Each of the last four meetings between Phoenix and Minnesota have played over the total.

Who’s Not

MLB: Oakland has dropped 23 of its last 28 road games.

MLB: San Diego is 1-8 in its last nine overall.

WNBA: Washington has covered just four of its last 15 games.

Key Stat

96 – The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 96 points per game during a six-game winning streak. They covered the number in four of those games and sit atop the Western Conference at 10-4 straight up and against the spread.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Ketia Swanier, Phoenix Mercury: Swanier’s nasty eye injury that she suffered on July 1 by taking an elbow from Minnesota’s Kristi Toliver has reportedly healed well enough for her to take part in the second meeting between the two teams Wednesday. Swanier is expected to start at the point with the Mercury set as a 4-point home favorite.

Game Of The Day

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (-135, 7)

Notable Quotable

"There's not much I can say other than he had the MRI, and it doesn't appear to be anything as serious as we might've feared. ... For now, there's no timetable. Hopefully, we can have him as soon as possible." – Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta on Grady Sizemore’s status following an MRI on his knee. Sizemore is on the 15-day DL, but there was some concern he had suffered a similar injury that put him on the shelf last season.

Tips And Notes

The Detroit Tigers will give the ball to Duane Below for his first career MLB start Wednesday against the Oakland Athletics. Below, who owns a 9-4 record with 3.13 ERA in 18 starts at Triple-A Toledo, grew up about an hour’s drive from Comerica Park. Detroit is set as a -125 home favorite.

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes didn’t waste any time getting back into the swing of things for the New York Mets to lead the team to a 4-2 victory over St. Louis Tuesday night. Reyes, who returned from a hamstring injury, picked up two hits, scored a run and turned a couple of difficult plays in the field. Beltran returned from the flu and reached base in all five at-bats he had.

[timbob]

Wednesday’s Betting Tips: Tigers SP Makes MLB Debut

Who's Hot

MLB: Atlanta has won eight of its last 10 as an underdog and 18 of its last 24 overall.

MLB: The under is 7-1 in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ last eight games.

WNBA: Each of the last four meetings between Phoenix and Minnesota have played over the total.

Who’s Not

MLB: Oakland has dropped 23 of its last 28 road games.

MLB: San Diego is 1-8 in its last nine overall.

WNBA: Washington has covered just four of its last 15 games.

Key Stat

96 – The Phoenix Mercury are averaging 96 points per game during a six-game winning streak. They covered the number in four of those games and sit atop the Western Conference at 10-4 straight up and against the spread.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Ketia Swanier, Phoenix Mercury: Swanier’s nasty eye injury that she suffered on July 1 by taking an elbow from Minnesota’s Kristi Toliver has reportedly healed well enough for her to take part in the second meeting between the two teams Wednesday. Swanier is expected to start at the point with the Mercury set as a 4-point home favorite.

Game Of The Day

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels (-135, 7)

Notable Quotable

"There's not much I can say other than he had the MRI, and it doesn't appear to be anything as serious as we might've feared. ... For now, there's no timetable. Hopefully, we can have him as soon as possible." – Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta on Grady Sizemore’s status following an MRI on his knee. Sizemore is on the 15-day DL, but there was some concern he had suffered a similar injury that put him on the shelf last season.

Tips And Notes

The Detroit Tigers will give the ball to Duane Below for his first career MLB start Wednesday against the Oakland Athletics. Below, who owns a 9-4 record with 3.13 ERA in 18 starts at Triple-A Toledo, grew up about an hour’s drive from Comerica Park. Detroit is set as a -125 home favorite.

Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes didn’t waste any time getting back into the swing of things for the New York Mets to lead the team to a 4-2 victory over St. Louis Tuesday night. Reyes, who returned from a hamstring injury, picked up two hits, scored a run and turned a couple of difficult plays in the field. Beltran returned from the flu and reached base in all five at-bats he had.

[timbob]

Fenimore The Great

5 Units Cinn -122
7 Units San Fran -131
3 Units Mets -109
3 Units Det -126
11 Units Tor -155

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Lines2win

2* Washington Nationals +100
3* Philadelphia Phillies -110

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Arthur Ralph Sports

681- 510 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Wed: Reds -120 8-1 run

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Hondo

Hondo dropped a couple of routine heartbreakers last night, swirling down the drain with the Indians in the ninth and the Mariners in the 14th as the NRN (nasty red number) ballooned to 1,915 jensens.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will bother Harang one more time for some assistance -- 10 units on the Padres.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Dbacks -115

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Wednesday
Play Toronto (-150) over Seattle (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Seattle has lost 104 of the last 157 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and they have also lost 58 of the last 83 road games after having lost eight or more of the last ten games. Jason Vargas has lost 11 of the last 13 games after walking one or less batters in his last outing and he has also lost 15 of the last 21 road games as an underdog of +100 to +150.

Play Washington (+110) over Houston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 2:00 PM EST
Houston has lost 50 of the last 67 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers and they have also lost 12 of the last 16 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150. Brett Myers has lost 4 consecutive games vs. NL East Division Opponents and he has also lost 7 of the last 8 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125.
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Play Pittsburgh (+115) over Cincinnati (Bonus)
Starts at 12:35 PM EST

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MLB
Write-Up


Wednesday, July 20

Hot pitchers
-- Karstens is 5-0, 1.57 in his last eight starts. Cueto is 3-1, 2.21 in his last eight starts.
-- Worley is 4-0, 0.89 in his last five starts. Cubs won last four Dempster starts (2-0, 2.67).
-- Kershaw is 4-1, 2.74 in his last six starts. Lincecum is 3-1, 1.74 in his last five starts.
-- Nolasco has a 1.13 RA in his last four starts. Harang is 2-0, 1.54 in his last eight starts.
-- Dickey has a 2.25 RA in his last four home starts.
-- Hudson is 4-0, 1.84 in his last five starts. Colorado is 5-0 at home if Nicasio (4-0, 1.91) starts.
-- Saunders is 3-1, 2.53 in his last five starts.

-- Tomlin is 4-0, 4.03 in his last six starts.
-- Vargas has a 2.61 RA in his last five starts, but Mariners got blanked in his last two outings.
-- Toronto won Morrow's last six starts (4-0, 2.90).
-- FGarcia is 3-2, 2.49 in his last six starts.
-- White Sox won Danks' last four starts (3-0, 1.90) before he went on the DL, after losing 10 of his first 11 starts.
-- Holland threw CG shutouts in his last two starts (allowed nine hits, three walks). Haren is 4-1, 2.17 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Astros lost Myers' last eight home starts (0-6, 5.80). Hernandez has a 6.59 RA in his last five starts.
-- Cardinals lost last six McClellan starts (0-5, 7.15).
-- Narveson is 2-2, 5.40 in his last five starts.

-- Arrieta is 1-3, 7.27 in his last five starts. Miller is 3-1, 6.04 in his five starts; Boston scored 44 runs in the five games.
-- Blackburn is 1-2, 7.52 in his last five starts.
-- McCarthy is 1-4, 5.40 in his last eight starts.
-- Below is 9-4, 3.13 in 18 AAA starts this year; this is his MLB debut.
-- Price is 1-1, 5.82 in his last three starts.
-- Chen is 1-2, 5.09 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Eight of last nine Karstens starts stayed under total. Over is 3-1-1 in Cueto's last five starts.
-- Four of last five Myers starts stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last nine Dempster starts stayed under the total.
-- Kershaw's last four road starts went over the total. Four of last five Lincecum starts stayed under the total.
-- Last five Nolasco starts stayed under the total.
-- Last three McClellan starts stayed under the total.
-- 10 of last 15 Hudson starts went over the total.
-- Four of Narveson's last five road starts went over the total.

-- Last four Arrieta starts went over the total.
-- Tomlin's last four starts all went over the total.
-- Three of last four Oakland road games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Vargas starts.
-- Four of last five Garcia starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of Danks' last seven starts stayed under the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Haren's last five home starts.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won nine of their last ten games.
-- Phillies won 11 of their last 17 games.
-- Braves won 13 of their last 17 games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Giants won eight of their last ten games.

-- Toronto won six of its last eight games.
-- Cleveland won seven of its last 11 road games. Twins won 13 of their last 19 games.
-- Bronx won three of its last four games.
-- Red Sox won 13 of their last 16 games.
-- Texas won its last 12 games, allowing two runs in their last six.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost ten of their last fifteen games.
-- San Diego lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Reds lost 10 of their last 15 games.
-- Mets lost six of their last nine games. Cardinals lost five of their last six road games.
-- Astros lost 18 of their last 22 games. Washington lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last twelve road games. Arizona is 4-6 in its last ten home games.
-- Colorado lost nine of its last fourteen games.
-- Dodgers lost their last four games, scoring six runs.

-- Seattle has been outscored 23-7 in losing its five games since All-Star break; they've lost ten games in a row overall.
-- Detroit lost six of its last ten home games. A's lost nine of their last ten road games.
-- Orioles lost 15 of their last 19 games.
-- Tampa Bay is just 6-9 in its last fifteen games.
-- Royals lost seven of their last ten games. White Sox are 4-7 in their last eleven games.
-- Angels lost four of their last five games.

Umpires
-- Cin-Pitt-- Favorites won six of last seven Bellino games.
-- Phil-Chi-- Road team won eight of last ten Dimuro games, with three of last four going over the total.
-- Wsh-Hst-- Underdogs won 12 of last 14 Carapazza games.
-- Atl-Col-- Six of last seven Campos games stayed under the total.
-- SD-Fla-- Underdogs won five of last seven Carlson games; in his last ten games, over is 6-3-1.
-- StL-NY-- Seven of last nine Tichenor games stayed under the total.
-- Mil-Az-- Five of last six Runge games went over the total.
-- LA-SF-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Cederstrom games.

-- Bos-Balt-- Favorites won last five Winters games.
-- A's-Det-- Over is 12-5-2 in Barry games this year, 3-1 in last four.
-- NY-TB-- Four of last five Iassogna games stayed under total.
-- Sea-Tor-- Total of 27 runs (6.75/game) scored in LBarrett's four tilts.
-- Cle-Min-- Road team won six of last eight Drake games.
-- Chi-KC-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Meals games.
-- Tex-LAA-- Eight of last nine Wolf games went over the total.

[timbob]

Silver Key Pick for Wednesday ML Baseball

MINNESOTA BLACKBURN -R -120 over Cleveland