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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK
under 9 runs Chicago White Sox and KC Royals
under 9 runs Chicago White Sox and KC Royals
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ROYAL FLUSH SPORTS PICKS
5 UNIT* MLB* Boston Red Sox -115 ML
5 UNIT* MLB* Cincinnati Reds -115 ML
5 UNIT* MLB* St. Louis Cardinals -105 ML
5 UNIT* MLB* Chicago White Sox -115 ML
5 UNIT* MLB* Atlanta Braves -110 MLComment
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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:
BlueJays -150 over MarinersComment
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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:
BlueJays -150 over MarinersComment
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WNBA Basketball Picks
Minnesota at Phoenix
The Mercury look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, JULY 20
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 601-602: Atlanta at Washington (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 110.421; Washington 108.694
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Under
Game 603-604: Minnesota at Phoenix (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 114.595; Phoenix 121.811
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 5; 185
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-5); OverComment
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Today's MLB Picks
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
The Pirates look to build on their 5-1 record in Jeff Karstens' last 6 home starts. Pittsburgh is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, JULY 20
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 14.578; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 15.416
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over
Game 903-904: Washington at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.778; Houston (Myers) 14.122
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Worley) 15.807; Cubs (Dempster) 14.744
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-110); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); N/A
Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.392; San Francisco (Lincecum) 16.102
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over
Game 909-910: San Diego at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Harang) 15.812; Florida (Nolasco) 15.446
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Under
Game 911-912: St. Louis at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (McClellan) 14.611; NY Mets (Dickey) 15.433
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-120); Over
Game 913-914: Atlanta at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.676; Colorado (Nicasio) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Under
Game 915-916: Milwaukee at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 13.968; Arizona (Saunders) 15.563
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Over
Game 917-918: Boston at Baltimore (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Miller) 16.229; Baltimore (Arrieta) 14.244
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over
Game 919-920: Cleveland at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Tomlin) 13.984; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.591
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); Under
Game 921-922: Oakland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (McCarthy) 15.069; Detroit (Below) 15.998
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under
Game 923-924: Seattle at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 14.953; Toronto (Morrow) 14.717
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Over
Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Garcia) 16.940; Tampa Bay (Price) 16.297
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+120); Over
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.191; Kansas City (Chen) 16.023
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+105); Under
Game 929-930: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.952; LA Angels (Haren) 15.670
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); OverComment
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Sports Wagers
Atlanta –103 over COLORADO Pinnacle
Juan Nicasio has surrendered seven jacks in 51 innings while Tim Hudson has surrendered eight in 120 innings. Nicasio’s HR/Fly-ball rate is 23% while Hudson’s is 8%. What’s even more interesting than all of that is Nicasio is 4-0 at Coors in five starts with an ERA of 1.64. Those are unsustainable numbers and a correction in his home stats is definitely forthcoming. The kid has a bright future but he does not have the repertoire yet for long term success. He’s a fastball pitcher with two average secondary pitches, the curve and change-up and he rarely uses the change. He’s basically a two-trick pony and that’s not sufficient firepower at this level and we’re seeing signs of that in three of his last six starts in which he was hit hard. Tim Hudson is an elite groundball pitcher and has the second highest GB rate in the league at 58%. His line-drive rate of 16% is one of the lowest in the league, suggesting that he’s avoiding hard hit balls. xERA shows how consistent Hudson has been. With fewer walks and more strikeouts this year, his command has improved, leading to the lower xERA. If you look solely at ERA, it looks like Hudson is doing worse this year than last, but xERA dispels that notion. Hudson’s 2010 ERA was aided by a 25% hit rate and 79% strand rate. The point is that Hudson is dealing it and despite his age (36) there are no signs of a second half regression. Play: Atlanta –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Los Angeles +125 over SAN FRANCISCO Pinnacle
3:45 PM EST start. Classic pitching matchup that has a posted total of 5½. Rarely do we see a number like that. In other words, this game is a complete toss-up and that’s why the Dodgers offer up value. There’s really not a lot more to say about this game, as both Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum are two of the best in the business. Kershaw is 10-4 while Lincecum is just 8-7 but both teams are an identical 12-8 with these two starting. Kershaw has a slightly better ERA (2.88 to 2.99). These two pitchers met in San Francisco to open the season this year and the posted total was 6½. The Dodgers won 2-1 and this one has that exact same feel. Win or lose, taking back +125 on a coin toss is the prudent choice. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. METS –105 over St. Louis Pinnacle
The Mets are undervalued here against a sinking Cardinal team that has just five wins in their past 13 games. St. Louis scored one run in Cincinnati on Sunday and two last night. They’re now batting .194 over the past four games. You might see that genius batting the pitcher eighth tonight or even seventh after a few shots of whisky and five beers. In any event, the Cardinals are reeling or should we say they overachieved in the first half and now we’re seeing the real Cards. This is an average club at best with the league’s worst batting coach (a career .233 hitter before he got juiced up) and the league’s worst manager that thinks he’s smarter than everyone else. Kyle McClennan is a Dave Duncan special in that he pitches to contact and relies on his defense to win him games. He has a decent groundball rate but that’s all he has. McClellan has a horrible BB/K ratio of 31/48 in 98 IP. His xERA has been trending the wrong way every month this season and last month it was 4.81. McClellan is beatable and if the Cards pick up a starter before the deadline he’s headed to the pen. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey has been surging, with six PQS’s (pure quality starts) in his last nine outings, spanning 61.2 IP. Dickey has pitched seven or more innings in seven of those nine starts. He has an outstanding groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 53%/15%/32%. He has a good strikeout rate and a low walk total of 37 BB in 122 innings. The Mets have scored either five or more, or two or fewer runs in 18 of its last 20 games and last night’s four runs is a flattering number to the Cards because the Mets should have scored twice that. Definite underlay. Play: St. Louis –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
TORONTO –1½ +134 over Seattle Pinnacle
The M’s scored five times last night and for them that’s like scoring 15 runs. The real story is that they scored five times in the first two innings and lost 6-5 in 14 innings. Last night’s loss ran their losing streak to 10 and avoiding 11 is going to be a daunting task. Brandon Morrow had a brilliant second half a year ago and he’s off to a brilliant second half this year. He shut down the Yanks in his last start, limiting them to four hits and one run in 6.2 frames. Morrow does not have the surface stats of an ace (4.37 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), but his skills are elite right across the board. He has 110 K’s in 95 innings and he should blow away these Mariners one by one. The Jays have won Morrow’s last seven starts. Jason Vargas is a finesse lefty who lives on the edge (pitching-wise, that is). Contact, high fly-ball mix is a potentially explosive one and that makes him a big candidate for a big second half regression. Vargas had thrown a whole bunch of good games in the first half including a recent streak in which he allowed just 12 ER in six consecutive starts. However, he’s allowed five runs or more in four of his last 10 starts and his skills do not support his numbers. His xERA over the past month is 5.74 and if he didn’t pitch at Safeco the gap between his ERA and xERA would be much closer. Jason Vargas is a half season wonder. Incidentally, this is the first time Morrow gets to face the team that traded him to Toronto (Morrow to the Blue Jays for reliever Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez) in what has to be considered one of the worst trades in the past decade. Play: Toronto –1½ +134 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Sports Wagers
Atlanta –103 over COLORADO Pinnacle
Juan Nicasio has surrendered seven jacks in 51 innings while Tim Hudson has surrendered eight in 120 innings. Nicasio’s HR/Fly-ball rate is 23% while Hudson’s is 8%. What’s even more interesting than all of that is Nicasio is 4-0 at Coors in five starts with an ERA of 1.64. Those are unsustainable numbers and a correction in his home stats is definitely forthcoming. The kid has a bright future but he does not have the repertoire yet for long term success. He’s a fastball pitcher with two average secondary pitches, the curve and change-up and he rarely uses the change. He’s basically a two-trick pony and that’s not sufficient firepower at this level and we’re seeing signs of that in three of his last six starts in which he was hit hard. Tim Hudson is an elite groundball pitcher and has the second highest GB rate in the league at 58%. His line-drive rate of 16% is one of the lowest in the league, suggesting that he’s avoiding hard hit balls. xERA shows how consistent Hudson has been. With fewer walks and more strikeouts this year, his command has improved, leading to the lower xERA. If you look solely at ERA, it looks like Hudson is doing worse this year than last, but xERA dispels that notion. Hudson’s 2010 ERA was aided by a 25% hit rate and 79% strand rate. The point is that Hudson is dealing it and despite his age (36) there are no signs of a second half regression. Play: Atlanta –103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Los Angeles +125 over SAN FRANCISCO Pinnacle
3:45 PM EST start. Classic pitching matchup that has a posted total of 5½. Rarely do we see a number like that. In other words, this game is a complete toss-up and that’s why the Dodgers offer up value. There’s really not a lot more to say about this game, as both Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum are two of the best in the business. Kershaw is 10-4 while Lincecum is just 8-7 but both teams are an identical 12-8 with these two starting. Kershaw has a slightly better ERA (2.88 to 2.99). These two pitchers met in San Francisco to open the season this year and the posted total was 6½. The Dodgers won 2-1 and this one has that exact same feel. Win or lose, taking back +125 on a coin toss is the prudent choice. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. METS –105 over St. Louis Pinnacle
The Mets are undervalued here against a sinking Cardinal team that has just five wins in their past 13 games. St. Louis scored one run in Cincinnati on Sunday and two last night. They’re now batting .194 over the past four games. You might see that genius batting the pitcher eighth tonight or even seventh after a few shots of whisky and five beers. In any event, the Cardinals are reeling or should we say they overachieved in the first half and now we’re seeing the real Cards. This is an average club at best with the league’s worst batting coach (a career .233 hitter before he got juiced up) and the league’s worst manager that thinks he’s smarter than everyone else. Kyle McClennan is a Dave Duncan special in that he pitches to contact and relies on his defense to win him games. He has a decent groundball rate but that’s all he has. McClellan has a horrible BB/K ratio of 31/48 in 98 IP. His xERA has been trending the wrong way every month this season and last month it was 4.81. McClellan is beatable and if the Cards pick up a starter before the deadline he’s headed to the pen. Meanwhile, R.A. Dickey has been surging, with six PQS’s (pure quality starts) in his last nine outings, spanning 61.2 IP. Dickey has pitched seven or more innings in seven of those nine starts. He has an outstanding groundball/line-drive/flyball profile of 53%/15%/32%. He has a good strikeout rate and a low walk total of 37 BB in 122 innings. The Mets have scored either five or more, or two or fewer runs in 18 of its last 20 games and last night’s four runs is a flattering number to the Cards because the Mets should have scored twice that. Definite underlay. Play: St. Louis –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
TORONTO –1½ +134 over Seattle Pinnacle
The M’s scored five times last night and for them that’s like scoring 15 runs. The real story is that they scored five times in the first two innings and lost 6-5 in 14 innings. Last night’s loss ran their losing streak to 10 and avoiding 11 is going to be a daunting task. Brandon Morrow had a brilliant second half a year ago and he’s off to a brilliant second half this year. He shut down the Yanks in his last start, limiting them to four hits and one run in 6.2 frames. Morrow does not have the surface stats of an ace (4.37 ERA, 1.26 WHIP), but his skills are elite right across the board. He has 110 K’s in 95 innings and he should blow away these Mariners one by one. The Jays have won Morrow’s last seven starts. Jason Vargas is a finesse lefty who lives on the edge (pitching-wise, that is). Contact, high fly-ball mix is a potentially explosive one and that makes him a big candidate for a big second half regression. Vargas had thrown a whole bunch of good games in the first half including a recent streak in which he allowed just 12 ER in six consecutive starts. However, he’s allowed five runs or more in four of his last 10 starts and his skills do not support his numbers. His xERA over the past month is 5.74 and if he didn’t pitch at Safeco the gap between his ERA and xERA would be much closer. Jason Vargas is a half season wonder. Incidentally, this is the first time Morrow gets to face the team that traded him to Toronto (Morrow to the Blue Jays for reliever Brandon League and minor league outfielder Johermyn Chavez) in what has to be considered one of the worst trades in the past decade. Play: Toronto –1½ +134 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Jeff Benton
Wednesday's Action
60 Dime baseball selection on the Rangers as a road undeedog at the Angels. At the time I release this winner, Texas is a +125 road pup across the board both here in Vegas and offshoore. Note that when placing your action, you must list Derek Holland as Texas’ starting pitoher. If Holland doesn’t start, this play is VOID!Comment
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Dom Chambers
Today's winners...
I am releaseng OVER San Francisco/Los Angeles, ARIZONA and TEXAS. I want you hammeriong these plays at the best possible number you can find. As I reloase these plays at 5:30 a.m. pacific, I see the lines being Over 5-1/2, Arizona -105 and Texas +125.Comment
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MLBPredictions
Kevin
1*Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates - UNDER 7 RUNS (+110) *12:35 PM EST START*
The Pirates look to sweep away the Reds to ensure they keep their spot a top the NL Central division (who would of thought?). The Reds have yet to score a run in the three game series, losing 2-0 and 1-0 in the first two meetings. Side note: Pittsburgh has taken 7 of these two teams 8 meetings on the year. Pitching for the Pirates is Jeff Karstens, who pitched a complete game shutout with only 83 pitches in his last time out. Karstens is 8-4 on the year with a 2.34 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and batters hitting just .235 against him. He had a rough time in Cincinnati earlier in the season, but has been on fire lately, which can be seen by his numbers on the season. Karstens will be in a pitching duel against Johnny Cueto for the Reds. Cueto is 5-3 on the season, but has some spectacular numbers. He has an ERA of 2.01 and WHIP of just 1.00, with batters hitting just .199 against him. Cueto has allowed no more than three runs in all 13 of his starts. He also has had a lot of success against the Pirates with a 9-3 career record against them and 2.79 ERA over 14 starts. Note that the UNDER is 5-1 in the Reds last 6 overall, and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games vs a starter with WHIP less than 1.15. The UNDER is also 4-1- in Cueto's last 6 road starts, and 3-1-1 in his last 5 road starts vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 30-13-5 in the Pirates last 48 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Also note that the UNDER is 8-1 in Karstens' last 9 starts overall, and a perfect 5-0 in his last 5 starts with 4 days of rest. The Pirates average just 3.54 runs per game at home, and are up against one of the NL's best pitchers. I expect a pitching duel in this afternoon game, and love the 7 RUN total at +110. I expect this line to move so jump on board with me now, as we ride the UNDER between the Reds and Pirates.Comment
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