7-22-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Atlanta Braves At Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview
By: Adam Markowitz

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds (+105, 8.5)

Last season, the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds were both bounced early in the NL playoffs. This year, both think that they are contenders for the NL pennant once again, but both have a ton of work to do. The two will begin their weekend series on Friday night at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.

The first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 (PT), and there will be live TV coverage on Sports South, Fox Sports Ohio, and the MLB Network.

This is the start of a vital 10-game home stand for the Reds. They enter this series at just 48-50, but they are only 4 ½-games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central standings. A solid record at the start of this home stretch might make general manager Walt Jocketty a buyer at the deadline, whereas a questionable start might give him second thoughts.

There's no doubt that the Cincinnati offense is good enough to win it all this year. This is a unit that ranks No. 6 in baseball at 4.59 runs per game. Of late though, the unit has been down, scoring just a total of seven runs in its past five MLB betting battles.

What is clearly needed is better pitching. A 4.06 staff ERA is on No. 21 in the league, and one of the biggest culprits for this problem, Bronson Arroyo, is going to be on the mound on Friday.

Arroyo is 7-8 with a 5.57 ERA. Batters are teeing off on him to the tune of a .295 batting average, and his WHIP of 1.40 is his bordering on his worst mark since joining Cincinnati in 2006.

The Braves are in a heck of a lot better shape right now even though they are trailing the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East chase by 4 ½-games. There really aren't a heck of a lot of serious contenders for the NL Wild Card this season as long as this mess of teams in the NL Central keeps beating each other up, and as a result, Atlanta should be in the postseason one way or the other.

Whereas Cincinnati is going to be looking for arms at the deadline, the Braves need some bats to help out. Chipper Jones is still battling a knee injury and will be out of the lineup until at least Sunday, which isn't making matters any better for a team that is only batting .238.

However, that might not be a tremendous issue on Friday. Manager Fredi Gonzalez gets to deploy his Cy Young Award contender, Jair Jurrjens. For a man that didn't get his season started until April 16, Jurrjens has put up some simply awesome numbers. He is 12-3 with a 2.26 ERA.

Jurrjens is coming off of the worst start he has had all season long. He allowed six runs in five frames against the Washington Nationals at home, but the team bailed him out and managed a 9-8 victory. It was the fifth straight win for the Braves with Jurrjens on the bump.

Against the Reds this year, the righty already has a 'W' to his credit. He threw eight strong innings, allowing just one run for what was his seventh victory of the campaign.

The Reds are only 3-7 in Arroyo's last 10 starts at the Great American Ballpark. Meanwhile, the Braves are 18-8 in their last 26 games and have already taken two out of three against Cincinnati this year.

Early afternoon thunderstorms will hopefully give way to good conditions in the Queen City. Expect muggy conditions with temperatures in the high-80s and a heat index approaching triple digits while the sun is out.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday’s Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Cory Luebke (3-3, 2.57 ERA), San Diego Padres

This 26-year-old lefty is making the most of his chance in the Padres rotation. The second-year hurler started the season in San Diego’s bullpen but got bumped up to the five-man starting rotation at the end of June.

He’s 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.66 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) and opponents are hitting just .148 as a starter. Oh yeah, and he has 26 strikeouts against four walks in 24 innings of work since getting dropped in the rotation.

Brian Duensing (7-7, 4.14 ERA), Minnesota Twins

Here’s another southpaw helping his club win games recently. Duensing is 2-0 with a 2.01 ERA in July and the Twins are 3-1 his last four trips to the mound.

The 28-year-old hurler is never a high price, so you’re going to get a good deal backing him most of the time. The under is also 4-1 in Duensing last five outings.


SLUMPING

Bronson Arroyo (7-8, 5.57 ERA), Cincinnati Reds

Oh boy. It’s just a season to forget for Bronson. Maybe he should fall back on his music career. Nope, just remembered, he sucks at that too.

Don’t let Cincy’s recent record in Arroyo’s starts fool you (4-2 in last six); this guy is tossing beach balls at the plate. The veteran right-hander is carrying a 8.25 ERA over his last four appearances.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Friday’s Best MLB Bets

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-105, 8.5)

You think the Cleveland Indians are in search of some help in the outfield? With Grady Sizemore out more than a month following sports hernia surgery and Shin-Soo Choo on the shelf until September with a broken thumb, things are getting desperate in Cleveland.

To make matters worse, Michael Brantley and Travis Buck also missed time this week, leaving the Tribe with an outfield that consisted of Luis Valbuena, rookie Ezequiel Carrera and Austin Kearns on Wednesday. Yikes.

"How can you substitute the absence of Choo and Grady Sizemore? I don't think that's a secret,” Indians manager Manny Acta said about the team’s search for outfield help. “We know that from top to bottom and we're working on it. But people need to understand, too, that it takes two to tango.

"You can have all the Christmas lists and wishes and all that, but you need to have somebody that you can engage with."

Until then, they’re stuck with what they have – which isn’t much.

PICK: White Sox


Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals (-105, 8.5)

The Kansas City Royals were fun to watch early this season. They’re a team that’s really trying to build on a young nucleus and after being the AL Central’s perennial whipping boy for years, it was cool to see them get out to a 10-4 start.

Of course, that didn’t last and they’re right back where they belong – in last place of the division.

The clubhouse is probably a little tense these days too after Wilson Betemit was shipped to Detroit and more moves rumored to be on the way.

Luke Hochevar gets the call for the Royals Friday and though he was great in his last outing, allowing just one run over seven innings in a win over Minnesota, we’re not sold on him yet. Before that start he gave up 11 runs over eight combined innings in two starts.

Plus, Wade Davis just keeps getting it done for the Rays, leading the club to wins in three of his last four starts.

Love the Rays at this price.

PICK: Tampa Bay

[Mr. IWS]

CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL: Tiger Cats-Lions Betting Preview
By Josh Smith

Hamilton Tiger Cats at B.C. Lions (-3, 50)

Hamilton finally got the monkey off their back with their big win against Saskatchewan last week. That proverbial monkey, however, still sits on the ever-weakening back of the BC Lions.

Hamilton looked every bit the Grey Cup contender in their walloping of the Roughriders. The Offense looked to be getting into a nice rhythm as the game went on. Quarterback Kevin Glenn looked comfortable in the pocket, and the team stuck with the running game throughout, even when Avon Cobourne went out with a foot injury. The Offense wasn't at their best, but it was a vast improvement over the previous two weeks.

The Defense played one of the five-best games I've ever seen a Defense play. The stats for the game are mindboggling. You'd have thought the Cats were playing a middle school team with the way that the Defense smothered Saskatchewan's Offense.

Special Teams kicked in (no pun intended) with a great game as well. Hamilton played with a short field for most of the afternoon and capitalized on it by putting 33 points on the board.

If the Cats can repeat that type of performance, they will hang with anyone.

The Lions will enter this game a very desperate team. No one wants to go 0-4 to start the year. I can't quite comprehend why BC has yet to win. It seems every week it's something new that scuttles the Lions' plans for victory.

With this game being played in Vancouver, the Lions will need to establish themselves early to avoid the boo birds from coming out. If the Tabbies get a lead, it could be a long night for Travis Lulay and co.

This is a late start Friday night, with kickoff scheduled for 10PM EST. But if you're a nigh owl, you can catch the game on television on TSN or on the radio at AM900 CHML.

[Mr. IWS]

CANADIAN BACON

Friday's Best CFL Bets

Hamilton Tiger Cats at B.C. Lions (-3, 50)

For a second straight week, Hamilton meets a team looking for its first win of the season. The Tiger-Cats did dominate the Roughriders last week, winning 33-3, but that victory doesn’t convince me.

On the other end, the Lions are much better than their 0-3 straight up record indicates. They have played good football against the Alouettes and the Stampeders, two teams that could very well make it to the big show in November.

The Tiger-Cats will be ending a tough road trip in the west and could be worn out by the time they suit up in British Columbia. That said, Avon Cobourne, who still hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, could very well take advantage of the Lions' poor run defense but I doubt it will be enough.

The Lions will get rid of their demons after having a poor 1-4 record ATS in their last five home games in Vancouver.

PICK: B.C.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday’s Betting Tips: Rockies' CarGo Hurt Again

Who’s Hot

MLB: San Francisco has won seven of its last nine.

MLB: The over is 12-4 in Baltimore's last 16 games overall.

CFL: The over is 4-10 in the last 14 meetings between Hamilton and B.C.

Who’s Not

MLB: Cincinnati is 3-7 in Bronson Arroyo's last 10 home starts.

MLB: Oakland has won only three of its last 16 visits to Yankee Stadium.

CFL: Hamilton has covered in four of its last five games against B.C.

Key Stat

1.7 – The Pittsburgh Pirates headed into Thursday’s action atop the NL Central with a 51-45 record, but according to Accuscore.com, they have just a 1.7 percent chance to make the playoffs.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants - Sandoval was forced out of Wednesday's game with a sore right triceps, but after an off day on Thursday, the team hopes he will be ready to return to the lineup Friday in the series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Game Of The Day

Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants (-120, 6.5)

Notable Quotable

“I know the (Hamilton) defense inside out. I pretty much know the offensive scheme,” Dennis said. “I’ll leak all of that to my new team. I’ll let everybody know anything we need to do to win. I’ll sit down with the players and coaches and share my knowledge. Individually, I’ve already gone to Geroy (Simon) and told him how he can beat his man.” – B.C. Lions DB Jerome Dennis on giving his new team an advantage when they go up against his old team, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, on Friday. Dennis was released by Hamilton earlier this week. The Lions are set as a 3-point home favorite.

Tips And Notes

Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez left Thursday’s game in the middle of an at-bat in the fifth inning with an apparent wrist injury and was taken to hospital for X-rays. Now there is some concern that he could be headed for the disabled list. CarGo already missed a few games with a wrist injury, but he thought it had healed. Gonzalez is hitting .288 with 15 homers and 56 RBIs.

David Wright is expected to return to the New York Mets’ lineup Friday for the first time since he landed on the DL with a stress fracture in his back on May 16. Wright was hitting just .226 with six homers at the time of his injury but was hitting .476 at Class A St. Lucie during his rehab stint without any discomfort.

David Ortiz is eligible to play Friday against Seattle after serving his three-game suspension for his part in an altercation with Baltimore’s Kevin Gregg on July 8. Boston is set as a -135 favorite and about 68 percent of Covers.com Consensus bettors are backing the BoSox.

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Hamilton at BC

The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record. Hamilton is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
FRIDAY, JULY 22
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST (7/19) Game 491-492: Hamilton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 110.592; BC 112.765
Dunkel Line: BC by 2; 53
Vegas Line: BC by 3 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+3 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

LA Angels at Baltimore

The Angels are coming off a 1-0 win over Texas and look to build on their 5-1 record in Ervin Santana's last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. LA is the pick (-120) acccording to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, JULY 22
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST Game 901-902: Houston at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.343; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.306
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-150); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-150); N/A Game 903-904: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.403; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.943
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-130); Under Game 905-906: San Diego at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Luebke) 16.394; Philadelphia (Hamels) 17.245
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-185); Under Game 907-908: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.641; Florida (Volstad) 14.864
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Game 909-910: Atlanta at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 16.155; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.051
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under Game 911-912: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 14.393; Arizona (Hudson) 15.102
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-165); Over Game 913-914: Washington at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.557; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 13.844
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+125); Over Game 915-916: Milwaukee at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 14.429; San Francisco (Cain) 15.651
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under Game 917-918: LA Angels at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.428; Baltimore (Simon) 14.020
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Over Game 919-920: Oakland at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Cahill) 15.284; NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.994
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.035; Cleveland (Carrasco) 14.665
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); Under Game 923-924: Seattle at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 13.675; Boston (Lackey) 16.453
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Over Game 925-926: Toronto at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Reyes) 15.995; Texas (Lewis) 17.193
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Over Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.243; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.178
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under Game 929-930: Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 15.472; Minnesota (Duensing) 14.223
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

684- 510 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one 10-1 run, FRI D'Backs -165

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo, showing preliminary signs of breaking out of his 2½-year slump, swept with the Angels and Braves yesterday to push the winning streak to three and slash the URN (ugly red number) to 1,655 cimillos.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will let it ride on the Giants to Cain the Brew Crew -- 20 units.

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Chicago Cubs -150 over Astros

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Chicago Cubs -150 over Astros

[timbob]

Baseball Prophet

Rockies/Diamondbacks over 8.5

[timbob]

MLB
Write-Up


Friday, July 22

Hot pitchers
-- Pirates won Maholm's last five home starts (4-0, 1.41). Cardinals won last five Carpenter starts (4-0, 1.89).
-- Luebke is 2-1, 1.50 in four starts this season. Hamels is 6-2, 1.75 in his last ten home starts.
-- Braves won last five Jurrjens starts (4-0, 2.59).
-- Arizona won DHudson's last eight home starts.
-- Cain is 2-1, 2.03 in his last six starts.

-- Santana is 1-0, 2.79 in his last four starts.
-- Cahill has a 2.91 RA in his last three starts, but no wins.
-- Lackey is 2-0, 3.09 in his last couple starts. FHernandez has a 2.78 RA in his last three outings, but no wins.
-- Lewis is 4-0, 2.57 in his last six starts.
-- Davis is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts.
-- Duensing is 3-0, 2.96 in his last four starts. Scherzer has a 1.84 RA in his last couple starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Zambrano is 1-3, 7.16 in his last six starts. Norris is 1-1, 4.94 in his last four outings.
-- Pelfrey is 1-4, 4.88 in his last five starts. Volstad has a 9.69 RA in his last three starts; Marlins lost five of his last six home starts.
-- Arroyo is 1-2, 8.25 in his last four starts.
-- Colorado lost Cook's last six starts (0-5, 6.15).
-- Kuroda is 1-8, 4.89 in his last ten starts. Lannan is 1-1, 4.57 in his last four outings.
-- Marcum is 1-1, 5.40 in his last five starts.

-- Simon is 1-1, 3.86 in two starts (11.2 IP).
-- Hughes is 0-1, 10.80 in two home starts this season.
-- Carrasco is 0-3, 9.00 in his last three starts. Floyd is 1-4, 5.64 in his last six starts.
-- Reyes has an 8.52 RA in his last five starts.
-- Hochevar is 1-1, 6.51 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Last four Norris starts went over the total.
-- Last four Maholm starts went over the total.
-- Nine of last ten Philly home games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Volstad starts went over the total.
-- Five of Jurrjens' last six road starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven DHudson home starts stayed under the total. Four of Cook's last five starts went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Dodger home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Marcum's last six starts.

-- Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Santana starts.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Hughes starts this season.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Carrasco's last eight starts.
-- Over is 13-3-2 in last 18 games at Fenway Park.
-- Eight of nine Lewis home starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Davis starts went over the total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Scherzer's last six starts.

Hot Teams
-- Pirates are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.
-- Phillies won 13 of their last 16 home games. Padres won their last three games, outscoring Florida 23-6.
-- Braves won 14 of their last 19 games. Cincinnati won three of its last four home games.
-- Dodgers won last four home games, allowing one run.
-- Giants won nine of their last twelve games.

-- Bronx won 13 of its last 16 home games. A's won three of their last four games.
-- Red Sox won four of their last five games.
-- Texas won its last seven home games, scoring 53 runs. Toronto won eight of its last ten games.
-- Minnesota won 14 of its last 21 games. Tigers won three of four.

Cold Teams
-- Astros lost nine of their last eleven road games. Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Florida lost its last three games, outscored 23-6. Mets lost six of their last nine games.
-- Colorado is 6-10 in its last sixteen games. Arizona is 5-7 in its last twelve home games.
-- Nationals lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Brewers lost eight of their last thirteen road games.

-- Angels lost four of their last five road games. Baltimore lost seven of its last ten home games.
-- Cleveland lost its last three home games, allowing 23 runs. White Sox lost three of their last four games.
-- Seattle lost its last twelve games in a row, outscored 41-18 in its seven games since the All-Star break.
-- Kansas City is 7-14 in its last 21 home games. Tampa Bay is just 7-10 in its last seventeen games.