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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK
Under 7 runs Washington and L.A. DodgersComment
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FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball Friday
Play Philadelphia (-185) over San Diego (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST
Philadelphia has won 14 of the last 18 games vs. San Diego and they have also won 9 of the last 12 games coming off a win by six or more runs. Cole Hamels is 5-2 vs. San Diego over his career with an ERA of 2.42 and he is 11-5 in all games this season with an ERA of 2.71.
Play Texas (-170) over Toronto (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST
Texas has won 12 of the last 14 games and they have also won 6 consecutive games after batting .300 or better over the last twenty games. Texas has won 21 of the last 29 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher and pitcher, Colby Lewis is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.91.
Play New York Yankees (-160) over Oakland (Bonus)
Canadian Football Friday
100* Play Hamilton (+3) over British Columbia
Starts at 10:00 PM EST
British Columbia has lost 13 of the last 17 games against the spread when playing as a favorite and they have also lost 6 consecutive home games against the spread when the total posted is between 49.5 and 52 points. British Columbia has lost 2 consecutive games vs. Hamilton at home and they are allowing an average of 32 points a game on defense this season.Comment
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Sport System Specialists
Yesterday 2-2 +29.66
Overall since jun.17 +256.21
PHI -1.5 +115 risking 4.5
NYY -1.5 +130 risking 15.19
BOS -1.5 +155 risking 4.5
ATL -1.5 +140 risking 6.75
STL -1.5 +110 risking 22.8
TEX -1.5 +105 risking 10.13
TB -1.5 +150 risking 3Comment
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Sports Wagers aka Randall the Handle
Houston +146 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
2:20 PM EST start. Carlos Zambrano and Bud Norris have virtually pitched the same number of innings this season (117). Both pitchers have walked 46 batters but Norris has struck out 37 more batters than Zambrano has. Norris has allowed just 105 hits in his 117 innings while Zambrano has allowed 118 hits. Not much difference anywhere other than K’s and that’s significant. What’s also significant is the mileage on Zambrano’s arm over the years and that excessive workload has worn him down. Zambrano has been smoked in three of his last five starts. In those three starts he’s surrendered five jacks. His control is getting out of control. Zambrano has walked 20 batters and struck out 25 over his past 33 frames and the result has been an ERA of 7.11 over the past month. We’re seeing signs that Zambrano is once again running strictly on fumes. Norris has a 90+ BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for his development into one of the game's premium young pitchers and his sub-4.00 xERA confirms that his current 3.67 ERA is no fluke. Regardless of the outcome the Astros offer up tremendous value here. Play: Houston +146 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +173 over PHILADELPHIA Pinnacle
Cole Hamels needs no introduction. He was once the Phillies ace but now pitches in the shadows of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and that’s fine by him. Hamels is still one of the best lefties in the business and he’s always tough to beat. Cory Luebke and the Padres may not win this game but this is without doubt the best price on the board given to a pitcher of Luebke’s caliber. Luebke has a sub-3.00 ERA, and it's no fluke. He’s struck out 69 batters and walked 129 in 63 IP. He has posted a **PQS-4-5-5 (for explanation PQS see bottom of these write-ups) string since joining the Pads rotation and that’s about as near perfect as it gets. Luebke has allowed a sick 36 hits in 63 innings. The kid can pitch so buy the skills. It’s also worth noting that the Padres are very warm with four wins in five games and they’re coming off a sweep of the then red-hot Marlins in Florida. San Diego scored 34 runs in those four wins and they come in here swinging hot bats, with momentum and taking back a tag that is as sweet as it gets. If Heath Bell comes in to save it in the ninth, change the channel and read about it tomorrow. Big overlay. Play: San Diego +173 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +124 over Colorado Pinnacle
First off, Carlos Gonzales out of the Rockies lineup creates a huge hole and one that will have an impact. Secondly, Aaron Cook pitching at this hitter’s park is a whole lot of doubles and runs waiting to happen. In 39 IP, Cook has walked more batters (17) than he’s struck out (14). What makes that even more troublesome is that hitters are making contact with his pitches in the strike zone 96% of the time and you may want to read that last sentence again. Cook has a WHIP of 1.84, a BAA of .346, an ERA of 5.82 with a xERA on the road of 6.29. After facing Zack Geinke last night and scoring four times, the Snakes might score 14 tonight on this pure stiff with a skill set that just might be the worst in baseball. Why is he in the rotation? It’s because the Rocks are paying him 10M this season. He’s 0-5 thus far (the Rocks are 0-6 in his last six starts) and when you break that down they’re paying him two million for each loss so far. Daniel Hudson is 6-2 at home with an ERA of 2.80. He has 102 K’s and 30 walks in 134 innings. It's been almost a year since the Diamondbacks acquired Hudson in a trade with the White Sox. Since then, the talented right-hander has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a four games out of first place in the NL West. While he doesn't get the publicity that follows some other top young pitching prospects, Hudson has more than fulfilled the expectations that followed him from Chicago to Arizona last summer and has quietly established himself as one of the most solid starters in the NL West. Play: Arizona –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay Pinnacle
After 10 straight games against the Yanks and Red Sox the Rays are not any closer to either of them after losing six of 10 and now find themselves in a letdown series. The Rays batted .220 over that stretch, which was the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the entire league over the past 10 games. TB’s 93 punch-outs were also tops in the AL over that span. When David Price or James Shields is not pitching, the Rays are as beatable as the Cubbies or any other team in the majors. Wade Davis will return from the DL for this start. Davis will have missed the minimum with a right forearm strain. Prior to his DL stint, Davis had a 4.25 ERA with limited skills support. A low strikeout rate, a brutal BB/K ratio and a 5.08 ERA strongly suggest potential trouble down the line. Davis’s 4.25 ERA is a complete mirage. The Royals lose a lot of games not because they can’t hit but because they can’t pitch. Luke Hochevar’s 5.23 ERA is much higher than his xERA of 4.08. His groundball rate has been trending the right way all season and over the past month that GB rate is up to 55%. Hochevar has been hurt by the big inning but he’s more than capable of throwing a solid game against this anemic line-up. Royals will score tonight, we’re not sure about the Rays. Play: Kansas City -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
CFL
B.C. LIONS –3 over Hamilton Pinnacle
What we have here is a very undervalued Lions squad looking for its first win of the season. That 0-3 record has them underpriced and that sets up this sweet opportunity after the TiCats blew out the Riders last week in Hamilton. As it turns out, the Roughriders are that bad. Back to the Lions 0-3 record. B.C. has played the toughest schedule thus far and it’s not close. They lost in Montreal to open the year but were the better team in three of the four quarters. The Lions then lost to Calgary by a mere two points in a bizarre second half that saw the teams combine for 53 points. Finally, the Lions lost to the red-hot Eskies in Edmonton last week but Travis Lulay threw for 313 yards. Ultimately it was turnovers that did them in. The Lions have played the top three teams in the CFL and take a big step down in class here. Hamilton has just one aforementioned win and two awful games. They are the second best team here with the second best QB, second best defense and second best offense. The Tigercats are simply an average club that is walking into a difficult assignment of playing a desperate team at home. This is the best bet of the weekend and one that should not be missed. Lions are a strong team with zero wins. That changes here. Play: B.C. Lions –3 (Risking 3.09 units to win 3).Comment
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Sports Wagers aka Randall the Handle
Houston +146 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
2:20 PM EST start. Carlos Zambrano and Bud Norris have virtually pitched the same number of innings this season (117). Both pitchers have walked 46 batters but Norris has struck out 37 more batters than Zambrano has. Norris has allowed just 105 hits in his 117 innings while Zambrano has allowed 118 hits. Not much difference anywhere other than K’s and that’s significant. What’s also significant is the mileage on Zambrano’s arm over the years and that excessive workload has worn him down. Zambrano has been smoked in three of his last five starts. In those three starts he’s surrendered five jacks. His control is getting out of control. Zambrano has walked 20 batters and struck out 25 over his past 33 frames and the result has been an ERA of 7.11 over the past month. We’re seeing signs that Zambrano is once again running strictly on fumes. Norris has a 90+ BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of these write-ups) in the first, second, and third times he goes through lineups. This consistency bodes well for his development into one of the game's premium young pitchers and his sub-4.00 xERA confirms that his current 3.67 ERA is no fluke. Regardless of the outcome the Astros offer up tremendous value here. Play: Houston +146 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +173 over PHILADELPHIA Pinnacle
Cole Hamels needs no introduction. He was once the Phillies ace but now pitches in the shadows of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee and that’s fine by him. Hamels is still one of the best lefties in the business and he’s always tough to beat. Cory Luebke and the Padres may not win this game but this is without doubt the best price on the board given to a pitcher of Luebke’s caliber. Luebke has a sub-3.00 ERA, and it's no fluke. He’s struck out 69 batters and walked 129 in 63 IP. He has posted a **PQS-4-5-5 (for explanation PQS see bottom of these write-ups) string since joining the Pads rotation and that’s about as near perfect as it gets. Luebke has allowed a sick 36 hits in 63 innings. The kid can pitch so buy the skills. It’s also worth noting that the Padres are very warm with four wins in five games and they’re coming off a sweep of the then red-hot Marlins in Florida. San Diego scored 34 runs in those four wins and they come in here swinging hot bats, with momentum and taking back a tag that is as sweet as it gets. If Heath Bell comes in to save it in the ninth, change the channel and read about it tomorrow. Big overlay. Play: San Diego +173 (Risking 2 units).
ARIZONA –1½ +124 over Colorado Pinnacle
First off, Carlos Gonzales out of the Rockies lineup creates a huge hole and one that will have an impact. Secondly, Aaron Cook pitching at this hitter’s park is a whole lot of doubles and runs waiting to happen. In 39 IP, Cook has walked more batters (17) than he’s struck out (14). What makes that even more troublesome is that hitters are making contact with his pitches in the strike zone 96% of the time and you may want to read that last sentence again. Cook has a WHIP of 1.84, a BAA of .346, an ERA of 5.82 with a xERA on the road of 6.29. After facing Zack Geinke last night and scoring four times, the Snakes might score 14 tonight on this pure stiff with a skill set that just might be the worst in baseball. Why is he in the rotation? It’s because the Rocks are paying him 10M this season. He’s 0-5 thus far (the Rocks are 0-6 in his last six starts) and when you break that down they’re paying him two million for each loss so far. Daniel Hudson is 6-2 at home with an ERA of 2.80. He has 102 K’s and 30 walks in 134 innings. It's been almost a year since the Diamondbacks acquired Hudson in a trade with the White Sox. Since then, the talented right-hander has quickly ascended to become the club's ace and a big part of the reason they're just a four games out of first place in the NL West. While he doesn't get the publicity that follows some other top young pitching prospects, Hudson has more than fulfilled the expectations that followed him from Chicago to Arizona last summer and has quietly established himself as one of the most solid starters in the NL West. Play: Arizona –1½ +124 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY -104 over Tampa Bay Pinnacle
After 10 straight games against the Yanks and Red Sox the Rays are not any closer to either of them after losing six of 10 and now find themselves in a letdown series. The Rays batted .220 over that stretch, which was the worst mark in the AL and second worst in the entire league over the past 10 games. TB’s 93 punch-outs were also tops in the AL over that span. When David Price or James Shields is not pitching, the Rays are as beatable as the Cubbies or any other team in the majors. Wade Davis will return from the DL for this start. Davis will have missed the minimum with a right forearm strain. Prior to his DL stint, Davis had a 4.25 ERA with limited skills support. A low strikeout rate, a brutal BB/K ratio and a 5.08 ERA strongly suggest potential trouble down the line. Davis’s 4.25 ERA is a complete mirage. The Royals lose a lot of games not because they can’t hit but because they can’t pitch. Luke Hochevar’s 5.23 ERA is much higher than his xERA of 4.08. His groundball rate has been trending the right way all season and over the past month that GB rate is up to 55%. Hochevar has been hurt by the big inning but he’s more than capable of throwing a solid game against this anemic line-up. Royals will score tonight, we’re not sure about the Rays. Play: Kansas City -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
CFL
B.C. LIONS –3 over Hamilton Pinnacle
What we have here is a very undervalued Lions squad looking for its first win of the season. That 0-3 record has them underpriced and that sets up this sweet opportunity after the TiCats blew out the Riders last week in Hamilton. As it turns out, the Roughriders are that bad. Back to the Lions 0-3 record. B.C. has played the toughest schedule thus far and it’s not close. They lost in Montreal to open the year but were the better team in three of the four quarters. The Lions then lost to Calgary by a mere two points in a bizarre second half that saw the teams combine for 53 points. Finally, the Lions lost to the red-hot Eskies in Edmonton last week but Travis Lulay threw for 313 yards. Ultimately it was turnovers that did them in. The Lions have played the top three teams in the CFL and take a big step down in class here. Hamilton has just one aforementioned win and two awful games. They are the second best team here with the second best QB, second best defense and second best offense. The Tigercats are simply an average club that is walking into a difficult assignment of playing a desperate team at home. This is the best bet of the weekend and one that should not be missed. Lions are a strong team with zero wins. That changes here. Play: B.C. Lions –3 (Risking 3.09 units to win 3).Comment
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WUNDERDOG (MLB)
MLB 52-48 last 100 picks +$750
1 OF 5
Game: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh +120 (moneyline)
This is a long noted perception vs. reality and the line spells that out quite clearly. The Cardinals have been a factor in the NL Central on an annual basis, while the Pirates have been mired in the basement for almost two decades. Chris Carpenter is an aging quality pitcher and the numbers aren't what they used to be, while Paul Maholm has the typical Carpenter numbers with a 3.06 ERA. The Pirates are better at home than what the Cards have shown on the road this season, but the line recognizes the pre-conceived facts stated above. Aging Carpenter now has the Cards at 3-10 in his last 13 road starts as a favorite, while the Pirates continue to scoop the cash after a loss, now at 8-0 in their last eight. Play Pittsburgh in this one.Comment
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Benjamin lee Eckstein
"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB Regular Season
Week 17
Ben lee won on Wednesday with the Blue Jays -$150/Mariners and had Np on Thursday.
For Friday "Mr Chalk" likes the Rangers -$175/Blue Jays.
"Mr Chalk" is 62-44 -$818 for the 2011 MLB regular season.Comment
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