7-24-11

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sportshandicapperking

three small ones

MLB BASEBALL

Tampa Bay Rays

Atlanta Braves

CFL FOOTBALL

Saskatchewan Rough Riders +11.5

MLB FREEBIE

Los Angeles Angels

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tntsportspicks
Executive package

Atlanta

Boston

St. Louis

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Jim Feist

Sunday Night Bailout Atlanta Braves

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winsportsnow
Sunday MLB Parlay Report

Twins-135

OVER 7 Nationals

Red Sox-145

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SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +115 over MINNESOTA

Francisco Liriano is a huge risk because of his poor control that’s seen him walk far too many batters (51 in 97 IP). Given his second half slowdown history and a concerning innings pitched spike, especially when you throw in 49 IP in winter ball, and that risk increases. Liriano only has nine quality starts in 17 attempts and has a history of grief when he faces the Tigers including a start this year in which he didn’t make it to the fourth inning. Detroit has dominated this series this season by winning six of seven games thus far. Rick Porcello is a frustrating guy. The talent is there but so are the inconsistencies. Porcello still is stingy with walks but his strikeout rate, while inching forward a bit in 2011, still needs a boost. Porcello’s high groundball % can cover up a sub-strikeout rate but there are other problems. Porcello lacks both a strikeout pitch and an out pitch, which is tough to overcome. On the plus side, his xERA has improved in 2011, so there could be some ERA upside the rest of the way and this is a good venue to throw one of the many strong games he has left this year in that arm. This one is still more about playing against Liriano. Play: Detroit +115 (Risking 2 units).


KANSAS CITY –104 over Tampa Bay

The Royals have won the first two games of this series and now they’ll send out their best starter by far in Felipe Paulino. Paulino is pitching way under the radar and is probably the most undervalued pitcher in all of baseball. Paulino has an elite 162 BPV during the last 31 days, a period that covers 28 IP. Paulino has an outstanding strikeout rate, his groundball rate over the last month is also at an elite level of 57% and his xERA of 2.86 is also one of the best in the game. An unlucky 41% hit rate over the same period has kept his surface stats from matching his skills. In the end, these are skills you want to wager on, especially since his average fastball velocity of 95 MPH is one of the game's best among starting pitchers and because the Rays strike out more often than any team in the AL. Alex Cobb will get an extended look in the Rays rotation. Cobb has pitched well in six spot starts this season with a 3.09 ERA, however, we’re not buying it. He’s walked (16) nearly as many as he’s struck out (22). He also has an unsustainable 83% strand rate. That’s not to say he’s a fluke or a bad pitcher. He has good stuff and he has upside but his ERA at this point does not align with his skills and no way is he a better option than Felipe Paulino. Rays can’t produce offensively while the Royals offense remains one of the most consistent in the league. This is a definite underlay because if Paulino were pitching for 75% of the other teams in this league with an offense like K.C.’s at home no less, against the Rays and a rookie pitcher, that team would be at least –140 favorite and probably more. Play: Kansas City –104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).


Toronto +190 over TEXAS

This one is interesting in that Brett Cecil is a risk to be sure but with that risk comes a big take back and one worth playing. Cecil is hit or miss. He recently went into Boston and limited the Red Sox to two earned runs in eight innings. The next game out he dominated the Indians. He allowed five runs in the first two innings to the Mariners in his last start but then went on to completely dominate for the next five frames. He’s very capable of throwing a good game and the Jays are very capable of scoring a bunch. That brings us to the incredible year of Alexi Ogando. This really is uncharted territory for Ogando. After mowing down batters in a relief role as a rookie in 2010, Ogando has had similar success as a SP in 2011. A confluence of circumstances though raises some cautions about Ogando's balance of the season. First and foremost--workload. He pitched 72 innings total (minors and majors) in 2010, and has far exceeded that total already. There's been little if any deterioration in his monthly splits in 2011, but as the innings pile up and the heat rises in TEX, his stamina will be something to watch. Second, Ogando is out-pitching his 3.57 xERA. If his hit rate corrects over the last two months, his sub-3.00 ERA will be history. Third, the movement in his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball numbers are not good--less GB and more LD. On the other hand, his overall skills (xERA, BPV) are holding up well. As to be expected, he's striking out less batters as a starter, but walking less also. In that regard, perhaps Ogando's skills can soften the stats correction. With the reliever-to-starter switch and a limited minor-league history, Ogando's second half is far from certain and after that sweltering heat over the past few weeks in Texas this could be the perfect spot to wager against him. Play: Toronto +190 (Risking 2 units).


Saskatchewan +11½ over MONTREAL

Blowouts happen in every sport and this one is certainly not immune from that. The Als are rolling along with a 3-0 record and they’ve scored 109 points in those three games. One of those wins came in Regina, where Montreal won by 14 points. Meanwhile the Riders smallest margin of defeat has been 14 points. They’re 0-3 and have lost all three games by a combined 61 points. Are they this bad? Time will tell for sure but one thing we also know is that no team, no matter how bad they are will continue to bet blown out from week to week. We also know that the Als are not as good as advertised. They’re good but they’re not this good. They were actually very fortunate to beat the 0-4 Lions. They were also fortunate to cover against the Argos last week, despite the misleading 40-17 score. Toronto was down 33-17 with under 2½-minutes to go and fumbled the ball in the Als end zone that resulted in a 14-point turnaround. At some point, Montreal will take a breather and after establishing themselves as the beast in the East again, this could be the week. Montreal’s defense is a big liability and will get exposed and shredded completely any time now. Having said all that, the Als are very capable of scoring another 40 or more on this putrid defense and it’s for that reason we’re backing off the Riders. A good spot to bet against the Als is forthcoming and while this could be it, we’ll wait for a better one. Play: Saskatchewan +11½

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70% computer play

under baltimore

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NORM HITZGES

July 24, 2011
358-335 -20.85
·******** Milwaukee/SF Under 7
·******** Milwaukee +105 vs SF
·******** Colorado -130 vs Arizona
·******** Washington +125 vs Dodgers
·******** Cleveland/CWS Under 8
·******** Oakland +160 vs NYY
·******** Minnesota -125 vs Tigers

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JR Tips

braves ml 10*

angels ml 5*

angels OVER 5*

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Lines2Win

3 Units Angels +100

3 Units Pirates Under 8

2 Units Reds +105

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chris jordan:

300 METS +110

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Indian Cowboy
MLB: 3-2-1 This week

UNDER 9 Kansas City

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Sunday Comps.
Sebastian(now selling college football picks from some high rollers who went undefeated last year-yeah right!)-Mets
Winner Line-Arizona
OTM-OVER Toronto
Lockline-OVER Toronto
Kevin Kennedy-Dodgers

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DAQsports
Yesterday: (3-3-0) +5 units, July: (77-71-3) -21 units

Today's selections:

MONEYLINE:
Rockies -132,
Indians -130,
Rangers -200,
Dodgers -136,
Cubs -170,
Rays -106

RUNLINE:
Indians +160,
Rangers -103,
Dodgers +162,
Cubs +117

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MLBPredictions
Kevin
Fail yesterday Tampa Bay

San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies – PADRES RUN LINE +1.5 (-115)

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LT Profits

Athletics/Yankees UNDER 9 -115