7-25-11

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[timbob]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
New York Mets At Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson



New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds (-150, 9)

The New York Mets have played some solid baseball on the road lately. They’ll try to keep it up Monday night when they start a 4-game series at the Cincinnati Reds.

Things will get underway at the Cincinnati Great American Ballpark around 4:10 p.m. (PT). The pitching matchup is R.A. Dickey against Mike Leake.

Both teams are hovering around .500 with New York likely to be sellers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Big names like Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes are prominently mentioned.

The Mets (50-50) have underachieved at home (22-26), but are 15-10 in their last 25 road games and 28-24 overall. That road record translates into +12.5 units, second-most in MLB.

New York split the first two games of its weekend series in Florida and was 105 underdogs in the pending Sunday afternoon finale.

Dickey (4-8, 3.80 ERA) is another potential trade candidate after the way he’s pitched lately. His ERA was 5.08 through May 14 with the team going 2-6 in his starts. The last 12 starts have been different (2.94 ERA) with New York 5-1 in his last six.

The 36-year-old knuckleballer last pitched at home against St. Louis last Wednesday, allowing four earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. He got another no-decision in the 6-5 win and should have a much better record overall.

Dickey has a lower ERA away (3.19) than home (4.24), although the ’over’ is 4-1 in his last five away. He’s making his first lifetime appearance against Cincinnati.

The Reds (49-51) are more of a playoff threat than the Mets by virtue of playing in the NL Central. They sit just four games out, albeit in fourth place.

Cincinnati started this 10-game homestand by splitting two with Atlanta. The Reds got an 11-2 win on Saturday after scoring 11 total runs in their previous six. The teams meet up Sunday night in a pending contest.

Leake (8-5, 4.11 ERA) doesn’t have a sterling ERA, but it looks great next to teammates Travis Wood (5.11), Bronson Arroyo (5.56) and Edinson Volquez (5.93), the latter recently sent to Triple-A. The starters overall have a 4.52 ERA, third-worst in the NL.

Leake has had a strange year with a shoplifting arrest in April, plus time spent in the pen and the minors. However, he’s a solid pitcher who has seven quality starts in 10 tries (3.22 ERA) since coming back into the rotation.

The 23-year-old right-hander has only one career appearance against the Mets. It came last May and he surrendered one earned run (four hits) over six innings in a 3-2 home win.

New York is 3-7 in its last 10 games against a right-handed starter.

The Reds are just 26-23 at home this year for an unprofitable -5.6 units. They’re just 4-11 in their last 15 games against the NL East, with the ‘over’ is 9-2-1 in their last 12 against that division.

This is the first meeting between the teams this year. The Reds went 4-2 last year, with New York reversing that number in 2009. They’ve split the last 10 games in Cincinnati over the last three years.

Cincinnati star outfielder Jay Bruce (inner ear infection) didn’t play Friday, but did get a pinch-hit double on Saturday. He was expected to start on Sunday, but the ailment could keep him out longer.

Monday’s scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon should give way to clear skies at night, but it will be in the upper 80s for first pitch. Tuesday’s second game will be a good pitching battle between Johnny Cueto and Jon Niese.

[timbob]

Monday’s Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

James McDonald (6-4, 4.15 ERA), Pittsburgh Pirates

Baseball bettors are like yard sale shoppers. They’re always looking for a good bargain. This Pirate hurler is the equivalent of an original Atari system with 50 games for $2.50 – a sweet deal any way you slice it.

The Pirates are 6-1 in McDonald’s last seven outings, and they were underdogs in five of those games.

Mark Buehrle (7-5, 3.38 ERA), Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are just 6-9 in their last 15 games, but three of those wins came on days Buehrle took the bump. Chicago would actually be in great shape if Buehrle started all its games. The club is 5-0 in his last five appearances and 13-6 in his 19 starts this season.

The veteran southpaw has been especially effective this month. He carries a 2.05 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP (walks + hits per inning) into Monday’s contest.


SLUMPING

Jason Vargas (6-8, 3.94 ERA), Seattle Mariners

Seattle can’t sweep bad starting pitching performances under the rug like the Red Sox or Rangers. The squad's lack of offense doesn't allow bailouts for starting hurlers.

Vargas has given up four or more runs in four of his last seven outings. Not surprisingly, the Mariners are 2-5 in his last seven starts and the under is 5-1 in his last six trips the hill.


RETURNING

Jon Lester (10-4, 3.31 ERA), Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox haven’t exactly been reeling since Lester went down with a strained lat muscle but they’ll be happy to see their big left-hander take the mound on Monday for the first time since July 5.

“We’re just trying to ramp [Lester] up and let him get strong, " Red Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters. "He feels nothing in that lat, which is great. That’s what we wanted. Now it’s just the idea of getting him back to where he can go out there and start a game and not be so limited to where he can only throw 50 pitches.”

Lester was pitching extremely well before going down with the injury. He went 3-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in the month of June.

[timbob]

HOT LINES

Monday's Best MLB Bets

Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics (+105, 7)

There were a couple things Tampa Bay management realized Saturday night. It’s clear the Rays, after losing to their second game in as many nights to the Royals, are not going to catch the Yankees or the Red Sox in the AL East. That means the playoffs are happening this year.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that Desmond Jennings is really good. Well, Jennings was the sixth best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America in 2010, so the Rays always knew Jennings was good – but maybe not this good.

The 24-year-old outfielder went 2-for-3 with a double, a triple, a stolen base, two runs scored and a run driven in. Even in a losing effort, that’s one hell of a season debut.

There are whispers that Jennings’ call-up means Tampa Bay is going to put a full-court press on trading its starting center fielder B.J. Upton. You never know, the Rays might be a better team with Jennings playing every day and manning center field.

Expect Jennings to give the slumping Rays a positive jolt of energy, which should be enough to get past the A’s on Monday.

PICK: Tampa Bay


Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers (-170, 10)

It doesn’t matter who they have in their batting order, the Texas Rangers always score runs. Maybe it’s because of the blistering Texas heat that helps carry more balls over the fence.

The Rangers are third the majors in runs scored and have finished inside the Top 10 in that offensive category for 10 straight seasons. It helps that Texas always seems to attract quality hitters.

Adrian Beltre was last offseason’s big catch and he’s been delivering the goods with 20 home runs and a team-high 76 RBIs. But the Gold Glove third baseman was put on the DL over the weekend because of a strained left hamstring.

Luckily, as mentioned, the Rangers have enough big bats in the lineup to fill the void. Chris Davis, who was hitting .368 with 24 homers and 66 RBIs in 193 at-bats in the Pacific Coast League, was called up to play third in place of Beltre.

''These guys just came of a huge winning streak and are playing really well,'' Davis told the Dallas Morning News. ''I'm just going to step in and play good defense and keep swinging the bat.''

Entering Sunday’s games, the Rangers had won 14 of their last 16 games.

PICK: Texas

[timbob]

Monday Betting Tips: Wind Blowing Out In Rays-A's Game

WEATHER

There’s between a 50 and 60 percent chance of rain in the following games: Pirates-Braves, Padres-Phillies, Mariners-Yankees and Royals-Red Sox.

The wind is going to be blowing out (12 mph) in tomorrow’s Rays-A’s game according to the early forecast. The total opened at 7 for this game at multiple Las Vegas sportsbooks Sunday night.

WHO’S HOT

The Los Angeles Angels are 18-8 in their last 26 games overall. They are -125 favorites Monday at Cleveland.

The Braves are 12-2 in their last 14 home games. They host the Pirates on Monday and are -188 chalk.

WHO’S NOT

The Seattle Mariners are on a 15-game winless streak and are +178 underdogs against the New York Yankees on Monday. Seattle was a dog or a pick in each of those 15 losses and averaged just 2.66 runs per game over the losing skid. The M’s have fallen to 25th on the money list at -14.25 units. That means that you’d be down $1425 if you placed $100 on them to win in every game this season.

GAME OF THE DAY

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves (-188, 7)

INJURY TO NOTE

Chipper Jones could be back in the lineup for the Braves on Monday. Atlanta’s third baseman went on the disabled list after he underwent surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee. The future Hall of Famer is batting .259 with eight homers and 46 RBIs this season.

KEY STAT

The under is 18-3 in the Phillies’ last 21 games when the total is set at 6.5 or lower. The over/under opened at 7 for the club’s Monday game against the Padres.

BETTING TIPS

As mentioned in today’s lead story, no team is better in playing in hot conditions than the Texas Rangers. Josh Hamilton and Co. are 18-8-1 in games with temperatures at 90 or higher. The temperature is expected to be over 100 in Monday’s game against the Twins.

Few teams see totals north of 8 as often as the Yankees do. The Bronx Bombers came into the season with a reputation for a club with lots of firepower but lacking big league arms. But the Yanks are one of the best under bets this season. The under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games and 5-1 in NY starting hurler Freddy Garcia’s last six trips to the hill.

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Colorado at LA Dodgers

The Rockies look to build on their 6-2 record in Juan Nicasio's last 8 starts. Colorado is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockies favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, JULY 25
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST Game 951-952: San Diego at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Harang) 16.924; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.815
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-240); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+200); Over Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.670; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.677
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Under Game 955-956: NY Mets at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 15.387; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.511
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+130); Over Game 957-958: Houston at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Happ) 13.745; St. Louis (McClellan) 15.676
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under Game 959-960: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Nicasio) 15.052; LA Dodgers (De La Rosa) 13.686
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+100); Over Game 961-962: Seattle at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 13.608; NY Yankees (Garcia) 16.837
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-200); Under Game 963-964: LA Angels at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 15.805; Cleveland (Carmona) 14.257
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Over Game 965-966: Kansas City at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.087; Boston (Lester) 16.520
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-280); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-280); Under Game 967-968: Minnesota at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 14.231; Texas (Holland) 16.656
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 10
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Over Game 969-970: Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Below) 16.463; White Sox (Buehrle) 15.443
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+130); Under Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.334; Oakland (Moscoso) 15.441
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Pirates Sunday.

Monday it's the Reds. The deficit is 2438 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

The Pirates rallied heroically for Hondo yesterday, but his sweep dream was denied by Scott "One And Done" Linebrink, who served up a sudden loss in Cincy that raised the number on the big red tote board to 1,815 blasses.

Today, Mr. Aitch will bother Harang for some help in Philadelphia -- 20 units on the Padres. Tonight, he'll stick with the Bucs -- 20 units on McDonald.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play MONDAY

WHITE SOX -150

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Top Play -
LA Angels

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

685- 512 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one 12-3 run MON Angels- 135

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

WhiteSox -150 over Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

WhiteSox -150 over Tigers

[Mr. IWS]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Philadelphia Phillies RL
Tampa Bay Rays ML

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 9 runs bet. Houston and St.Louis