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David Banks (comp)
Winner yesterday Boston ml
No write up
UNDER San Francisco Giants / Philadelphia Phillies
Winner yesterday Boston ml
No write up
UNDER San Francisco Giants / Philadelphia Phillies
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KEVIN ROGERS
Royals at Red Sox
Pick: Red Sox -1½
The Red Sox offense blew up last night in a 13-9 victory over the Royals, as the two teams meet up again tonight at Fenway Park. John Lackey hasn't been great this season, but all five of Boston's home wins with him starting have come by two runs or more. Bruce Chen has seen his ups and downs this season for the Royals, as three of the four losses suffered on his watch have come by at least two runs. I'll take the Red Sox here to beat the Royals on the run-line.Comment
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Jason Storm
On 1* 100-59-1 Overall Record
Take 1* Washington Nationals -115
You always need to look at the starting pitchers. The line the oddsmakers set is based off the starting pitchers so that should be where you start handicapping. Sometimes its realizing pitchers strengths, and other times it's about realizing their weakness. Today is about which team exposes their opposing pitchers weaknesses more.
We have the Marlins at the Nationals today and the starting pitching match up is Florida's Javier Vazquez versus National's Livan Hernandez. Neither have had a great season. Combined their teams are 15-26 when take the mound. Hernandez has a better season of the two with an ERA at 4.04 compared to Vazquez's 5.35 ERA. Yet, Vazquez has a better ERA in the last 3 games with an ERA just under 4 compared to Hernandez ERA of over 6 in his last 3. So why did I pick this match up today?
It's easy if look at their weaknesses. Both pitchers struggle against left handed hitters. Livan Hernandez allows lefties to hit .299 and allowed more HRs against lefties than righties. Javier Vazquez also allows left handed hitters to hit .299 against him and has allowed 10 HRs against lefties compared to 5 against righties. So to me it's simple, the team with the most quality left handed hitters will win. That answer is clear: The Nationals. The Nationals will have 5 left handed batters in their line up today. Roger Bernadina, Danny Espinosa, Laynce Nix, Alex Cora, and Rick Ankiel. This is a good mix of hitters. You have power, speed and average hitters all in this list. Any of these guys can be the difference in this game. The Marlins only have 3 projected left handed hitters in the line up, Emilio Bonifacio, Greg Dobbs, and Logon Morrison. I see this being the difference and it favors the Nationals.
It's not the only difference however. Livan Hernandez is a much different pitcher at home. He has an ERA of just 3 at home, and hitters hit 50 points lower against him at Nationals Park. That's a huge difference. He is 4-2 at home compared to his 1-7 road record. He is a different pitcher at home, and I expect that to continue today. He has gone into the 7th inning in 5 of his last 10 starts. Here is something else I really like: Livan doesn't walk many hitters. In fact, in his 67 innings pitched at Nationals Park he has only allowed 8 walks. Marlins aren't going to get any free passes out of him today. On top of it all, he has already faced the Marlins once in his home ball park once. In that game, he went 7 innings and only allowed 1 run. He's proved he can dominate this Florida line up.
Javier Vazquez on the other hand hates Nationals Park. In his last start there, he only lasted 4 innings giving up 6 runs. It wasn't just one man beating him either, 6 of the 9 Nationals starters got a hit off of him. His ERA was over 13 for that game. It was not much better for him in his last start Vazquez when gave up 5 runs in just 4.1 innings pitched to the San Diego Padres. That's worst offensive team in the NL. You can't allow that to happen. In 10 of his 20 starts this season, he has failed to reach the 6th inning. Vazquez doesn't go deep into games and he gives up big runs and allows left handed hitters to beat him. This isn't a good match up for him.
This Nationals team has a lot of key pieces in place. They are rising quickly and today I don't think they will have much of problem getting this win.Comment
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Jimmy Boyd 7/27 Blowout GOM
5* Rays
3* Reds
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the Rays to come storming back tonight. The Rays are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 and 8-1 in their last 9 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. I love their chances against Oakland scheduled starter Trevor Cahill, who allowed 10 earned runs in 2 innings of a 17-7 loss to the Yankees his last time out. The A's are 0-5 in his last 5 starts and 2-12 in his last 14. The Athletics are also 0-7 in his last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Rays, meanwhile, are in great hands with James Shields taking the rubber. They've won 7 of his 10 road starts this season while he has posted an ERA of 2.61. The Rays are also 7-1 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 10-3 in his last 13 starts in the 3rd game of a series. Look for the Tampa offense to come alive against the struggling Cahill and for Shields to take care of the rest.Comment
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