7-30-11

[timbob]

New Guys!

Don’t be afraid to post services if you come across any. Anything you contribute will be appreciated, and your user reputation will grow (the green dots under your name.)

Note:

ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[timbob]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds MLB Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson


San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds (-118, 8.5)

The San Francisco Giants are buoyed by a recent acquisition, while the Cincinnati Reds are in an official freefall. The teams meet Saturday night in Ohio in the middle game of a weekend set.

The first pitch from Great American Ball Park will be at 4:10 p.m. (PT). It’s a mound battle of early 20-somethings in Madison Bumgarner and Mike Leake.

The Friday opener is still pending with San Fran and the surprising Ryan Vogelsong even odds against Cincy and reclamation project Dontrelle Willis.

San Francisco (61-44) made a huge move on Thursday, acquiring outfielder Carlos Beltran (.895 OPS) from the Mets for prized pitching prospect Zack Wheeler. Beltran went hitless in his debut at Philadelphia last night, but the team won 4-1 behind ace Tim Lincecum, also taking the series.

The Beltran move is a big boost to the NL’s 15th-ranked offense (3.59 runs per game). There were prior season-ending injuries to catcher Buster Posey and infielder Freddy Sanchez, so positive news was badly needed for team morale.

Bumgarner (6-9, 3.56 ERA) started slowly this year with a 7.79 ERA after four starts and some questioned whether last year’s rookie sensation was experiencing the dreaded sophomore jinx.

The 21-year-old lefty has quieted the talk and pitched very well since, having quality starts in 15 of his last 17 outings. He’s seen the low-scoring Giants go 6-0 in his last six starts after beginning 4-11. He even got a win the last two times out to boost his underserving poor record.

Bumgarner’s only two poor starts since late April were both at home. That includes an ERA-killing eight earned runs over 1/3 inning against Minnesota on June 21. His road ERA for the season is just 2.54.

Bumgarner allowed one run over seven innings at home against the Reds on June 9, but San Fran lost 3-0. He got racked (seven earned over 2 2/3 innings) at home against them last year. This is his first time pitching in Cincy.

Cincinnati (50-55) was rumored to be in the Beltran sweepstakes, but GM Walt Jocketty has been quiet heading into Sunday’s non-waiver trade deadline. A starter is the biggest need, but Reds’ players would like to see any big move just to know management is behind them.

Manager Dusty Baker’s guys are fading fast after just getting swept four home games by the Mets. The team is barely within striking distance in the NL Central (6 ½-games out), especially with Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and St. Louis all well ahead of them.

Leake (8-6, 4.04 ERA) pitched well in his last two starts at Pittsburgh and home to the Mets. He surrendered three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings, but lost both with just two total runs of support. Cincy is 2-5 in his last seven starts overall.

The 23-year-old right-hander does have eight quality starts in 11 tries (3.18 ERA) since coming back into the rotation in late May after a short minors stint.

Leake threw eight scoreless innings at San Fran last month, getting the win in a 10-2 blowout. He had a humungous 21.21 ERA in two appearances against the Giants last year.

These teams split four games out west in June, with the ‘under’ going 3-1. They split the four games in Cincy last year.

The Giants are just 29-26 on the road this year (+3.4 units), but are 7-3 in their last 10 away.

The ‘under’ is 6-1 in San Francisco’s last seven games overall, scoring just 2.29 runs per game. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in Cincinnati’s last three and 8-2 in its last 10 home games against a left-handed starter.

Weather should be clear and warm in the mid-80s. The Sunday afternoon finale will have Johnny Cueto against the Giants’ weak-link starter Barry Zito.

[timbob]

Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays (3-0, 2.57 ERA)

The Rays rookie righthander is stepping up in the home stretch of the season. Cobb has yet to taste defeat in seven starts this season, winning his most recent trip to the bump with a shutout effort versus the Royals on Sunday. He allowed only six hits over seven innings, improving his ERA to 1.40 over his last three appearances.

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants (6-9, 3.56 ERA)

The Giants young lefty is picking up steam after a bumpy start to the season. Bumgarner is undefeated since June 21, picking up wins in his last two outings. He limited the Dodgers to just three runs on four hits last Tuesday and held the Brewers to one run on eight hits over 7 2-3 innings Sunday.


SLUMPING

Zachary Britton, Baltimore Orioles (6-7, 4.05 ERA)

Britton gets the call from the big ball club after licking his wounds in the minors for most of the month. The southpaw, who is winless since June 8, was knocked around hard in his most recent trip to the bump. Britton allowed seven earned runs on eight hits, lasting less than an inning versus the Red Sox on July 8. That performance earned him a direct trip to Double-A. Orioles backers shouldn’t get used to having Britton around. He’ll be up against the big-hitting Yankees as part of the teams’ double-header Saturday.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals (8-7, 3.46 ERA)

The Cardinals are falling behind in the National League Central, and Lohse could be to blame. The righty hasn’t won a start since June 28 and is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in his last four outings. Lohse looked a bit sharper in his most recent effort, giving up only two earned runs on four hits, but last just five innings in a no-decision against the Pirates on Sunday.

[timbob]

HOT LINES

Saturday's Best MLB Bets

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (-114, 6.5)

In a battle of rookie starters headed in opposite direction, the Rays send right-hander Alex Cobb to the mound to counter Seattle’s fading righty Michael Pineda.

Cobb has been stellar in his last five starts, going 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

In contrast, Pineda has been shelled in his last three outings, allowing 19 runs in his last 15 innings. Now, there are reports that he’s been tipping his pitches; at least that was the excuse after the Red Sox pounded Pineda for seven runs in four innings Sunday.

Both teams are floundering to the finish, but Rays’ manager Joe Maddon has been good at getting his team to give a final push. There’s no better place than Seattle to jump-start an August surge.

PICK: Tampa Bay


New York Mets at Washington Nationals (-102, 8.5)

This is a good under-the-radar pitching matchup between New York knuckleballer R.A. Dickey and the Nats’ money machine Jason Marquis, who is top 5 in starter money this season.

Dickey, while not as profitable as Marquis, has baffled the Nationals in four career starts. He boasts a 2.10 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in Washington and has been pitching well of late.

Meanwhile, the Nationals have been atrocious at home, winning only once in their last seven games.

PICK: Mets

[timbob]

WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
Mercury - Liberty Preview
By Associated Press


Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty (-2.5, 179)

Diana Taurasi has taken over the WNBA scoring lead with three consecutive solid performances, though none were enough to lead the Phoenix Mercury to a win.

It may not get much easier Saturday night at Madison Square Garden against the New York Liberty, who have won six of their last seven home games.

Taurasi overtook Chicago's Sylvia Fowles as the league's top scorer, improving her average to 20.4 points after scoring 27 in a 102-91 loss to San Antonio on Thursday. The veteran guard had 26 points Tuesday against Seattle and 24 on July 20 versus Minnesota - both Mercury losses.

Phoenix (10-7) has fallen out of first place in the Western Conference during its skid, dropping behind Minnesota and San Antonio. The Mercury began the season with three straight losses, then won 10 of 11 before their current slump.

Taurasi was held to five points on 1-for-7 shooting in the most recent game against the Liberty, a 107-69 road loss Aug. 14. She averaged 25.0 points in the previous three meetings - all Phoenix wins.

New York's Cappie Pondexter scored a game-high 28 points in that August matchup and is among the league leaders this year with 17.4 per game.

Pondexter scored 19 in a 75-71 victory over Washington on Thursday, helping the Liberty (10-7) win for the sixth time in eight games overall.

Kia Vaughn, who added 14 points, put the Liberty ahead for good on a layup with 54 seconds remaining.

Pondexter, whose team has won two straight and five of six at home, said the Liberty have seemed to hit a groove as they are in a close battle with Indiana and Connecticut for the top spot in the East.

"We're starting to understand each other," she said. "That's the important thing going down the stretch in the second half. Believing in each other, staying focused will help us win for this organization."

New York likely will need a solid defensive effort Saturday against Phoenix, which leads the WNBA in scoring with 91.7 points per game.

The Mercury have four players who average in double figures - Taurasi, Penny Taylor (15.5 points), Candice Dupree (14.4) and Kara Braxton (10.8) - but so do the Liberty.

Pondexter has scored in double figures in 14 straight games, while Plenette Pierson averages 13.3 points, Essence Carson adds 13.0 and Vaughn 12.1.

New York averages just 79.9 points but gives up 77.7 per game, compared to a Phoenix team which allows a league-high 87.2

[timbob]

LADY LUCK

Saturday's Best WNBA Bets

Phoenix Mercury at New York Liberty (-2.5, 179)

The Mercury had a chance to make up some serious ground in the Western Conference with their recent schedule featuring San Antonio, Seattle and Minnesota. However, Phoenix let that opportunity slip away, going 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games.

"I think we did some good things and we did some things that didn't help us," guard Diana Taurasi told reporters following the 102-91 loss to the Silver Stars Thursday. "San Antonio played really well, they executed, and they made a lot of plays throughout the game."

The Mercury head to the Big Apple, looking for a break from their conference rivals when they face the Liberty Saturday. Phoenix is a stellar 5-1 SU and ATS against Eastern Conference opponents this season.

Despite the three-game skid, the Mercury have not lost their scoring punch. They’ve averaged more than 88 points per game during this slide, and scored an average of 96 points during a six-game winning run earlier this month. The Liberty average less than 80 points per game and will have a tough time matching the Mercury’s firepower Saturday.

PICK: Phoenix


Seattle Storm at Tulsa Shock (+9, 142.5)

The totals continue to dwindle for the Shock, who have averaged only 69 points this season and have played under the number in seven of their last 10 contests. Saturday’s total is a measly 142.5 points, which has a lot to do with Tulsa’s opponent.

Seattle, despite missing MVP Lauren Jackson, is still one of the best defensive squads in the WNBA. On the year, the Storm allow an average of just 70.4 points, which ranks tops in the league. Seattle has lost some scoring pop without Jackson, leading to a 3-8 over/under count, as of Friday, since the 6-foot-5 Aussie went under the knife to repair a bum hip.

The Storm will be coming off a grueling game against the Western Conference’s top team, the Minnesota Ly*x Friday night, and will be especially flat on the offensive end when they finally arrive in Tulsa.

PICK: Under

[timbob]

CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL: Stampeders-Roughriders Preview
By Adam Markowitz


Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (+2.5, 54)

Last week, the Saskatchewan Roughriders took out the team that they had lost to in two straight Grey Cups. Now, in Saturday night CFL betting action on the NFL Network, they’ll look to take care of the team that they beat in the last two West Division Finals, the Calgary Stampeders.

Calgary is coming off of a bad loss to the Edmonton Eskimos which dropped it two games back already in the West Division standings. A loss in this one will likely leave it three games out just five into the season, and it would definitely be faced with an uphill battle after that. The sad part about that loss to the Eskies last week at home was that both the offense and the defense really did their jobs. The ‘O’ accounted for over 400 yards of offense; heck, QB Henry Burris threw for over 370, and the rushing game had over 100 yards to boot between Burris, John Cornish, and Joffrey Reynolds. The defense really only gave up two big plays as well, both of which went for TDs to WR Fred Stamps. Still, two relatively short missed field goals and a number of other squandered opportunities kept the men in red off of the board. Those chances just cannot go awry this week on the road in Regina, or the Stamps will be below .500.

Has Saskatchewan really turned things around after its brutal 0-3 start to the season? We tend to think so. It’s not like there’s never been a Grey Cup champ lose three straight games at some point over the course of the long 18 game, 20 week schedule. The Riders are just continuing this treacherous schedule to start the year with this one against Calgary, and eventually, things will loosen up just a tad and teams like BC and Toronto will turn up on the slate. Last week’s win and season splitting triumph over the defending Grey Cup champs, the Montreal Alouettes was crucial, and it was especially important because both the offense and the defense played well balanced games. QB Darian Durant didn’t turn the ball over once. He had his shots to his wide outs and took advantage of them, especially on a 75 yard TD pass to WR Weston Dressler. The running game took it from there. Durant had 71 yards on the ground himself, and RBs Wes Cates and Hugh Charles combined for 19 carries and 104 yards. The question is whether the ‘D’ really played that well, or whether Montreal was just out of sorts, especially after losing QB Anthony Calvillo in the second quarter.

In a nutshell, we just don’t think that the Stampeders are as good as the Roughriders are this year. Saskatchewan is going to figure this out and still win somewhere between 10 and 12 games in all likelihood. Unfortunately, even though Calgary has a better record right now, we just aren’t so sure that we can say the same about it.

[timbob]

CANADIAN BACON

Saturday's Best CFL Bets

Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (+2.5, 54)

Don’t be fooled by the Roughriders’ win against the Alouettes in Montreal. It masked many weaknesses.

Even without Calvillo (injured halfway through the second quarter) and although they probably played their worst football game since Marc Trestman took over four years ago, the Alouettes came close to tying that game in the last minute.

The passing attack of the Riders isn’t as threatening without the likes of Fantusz (NFL) and Baggs (nine-game injury list). Durant can still rely on Dressler and Hugh Charles brings a one-two punch in the running game behind Wes Cates, but the lack of depth and discipline makes the Roughriders vulnerable.

The Saskatchewan defense has weaknesses that will be exposed by Henry Burris and the Stampeders, even in the hostile environment of Mosaic Field. Let’s not forget that missed field goals have been the cause of both losses on Calgary’s record.

PICK: Calgary

[timbob]

Saturday's Betting Tips: Adrian Gonzalez Injury Concerns

Weather Watch

A mild and calm summer day is forecast throughout baseball today, with temperatures not expected to reach triple digits at any ball park. Wind shouldn’t be much a factor either anywhere.

Who’s Hot

AL: The Rangers have won 16 of their last 21 and seven straight as a favorite of -110 to -150. Texas is a -118 favorite at Toronto today.

NL: The Braves are 13-6 against the Marlins with today’s starter Tim Hudson on the mound.

CFL: Calgary Stampeders are 9-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Who’s Not

NL: Phillies’ starter Cliff Lee got roughed up by the Padres in last outing, getting knocked around by the puny San Diego lineup for five runs on 10 hits in just four innings.

AL: Twins’ starter Nick Blackburn was absolutely tattooed in his last outing, surrendering nine runs, six earned, in a 2 2/3 innings to the Rangers in the infamous 20-6 loss Thursday.

WNBA: The Los Angeles Sparks are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games.

Key Injury

Red Sox slugger Adrian Gonzalez was scratched from Friday’s lineup with a stiff neck. Gonzalez leads the majors in average (.352), RBIs (87) and hits (148).

Betting Tips And Notes

Betting the Yankees in day games has been a huge moneymaker for bettors this year. Heading into today’s 1:05 p.m. tilt against the Orioles, the Yanks are 29-7 in afternoon games.

When the Los Angeles Sparks don’t have their legs, it really shows on the defensive side of the floor. They give up a ton of layups and easy buckets because of late rotations. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Sparks’ last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.

[timbob]

WNBA Basketball Picks
Seattle at Tulsa

The Storm look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games versus Western Conference teams. Seattle is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Storm favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 30
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Phoenix at New York (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.465; New York 116.220
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 4; 182
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 2; 178 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-2); Over

Game 653-654: Seattle at Tulsa (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 112.197; Tulsa 100.411
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 12; 137
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 8 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-8 1/2); Under

Game 655-656: Los Angeles at Chicago (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 105.249; Chicago 108.409
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 145
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 6; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+6); Under

[timbob]

Today's CFL Picks
Calgary at Saskatchewan

The Roughriders look to build on their 5-2 ATS record in the last 7 meetings between the two teams. Saskatchewan is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 30
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (7/27)

Game 497-498: Calgary at Saskatchewan (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 110.995; Saskatchewan 110.709
Dunkel Line: Even; 56
Vegas Line: Calgary by 2 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+2 1/2); Over

[timbob]

Today's MLB Picks
Texas at Toronto

The Rangers look to bounce back from their 3-2 loss last night and build on their 7-0 record in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. Texas is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, JULY 30
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lopez) 13.942; St. Louis (Lohse) 15.166
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Over

Game 903-904: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 15.697; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.169
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-250); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+210); Under

Game 905-906: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 14.741; Washington (Marquis) 14.825
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under

Game 907-908: Florida at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 15.181; Atlanta (Hudson) 14.882
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+130); Over

Game 909-910: Houston at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Happ) 14.377; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.574
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-250); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.732; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.699
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+105); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.714; San Diego (Harang) 15.205
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Over

Game 915-916: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Owings) 15.351; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.067
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+120); Under

Game 917-918: Texas at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 16.284; Toronto (Mills) 14.813
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-125); Under

Game 919-920: Baltimore at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.775; NY Yankees (Colon) 16.441
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.039; Seattle (Pineda) 15.205
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Over

Game 923-924: LA Angels at Detroit (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 16.447; Detroit (Below) 15.433
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-130); Under

Game 925-926: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Paulino) 14.754; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.996
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-155); Over

Game 927-928: Boston at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 16.958; White Sox (Humber) 15.988
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 929-930: Minnesota at Oakland (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.705; Oakland (Moscoso) 15.299
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Over

Game 931-932: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Britton) 14.543; NY Yankees (Nova) 15.702
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[timbob]

Arthur Ralph Sports

686- 515 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Sat Angels -140

[timbob]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Indians Friday night.

Saturday it's the Indians again. The deficit is 2,677 sirignanos.

[timbob]

Hondo

Hondo swung and misssed with the Bucs last night in Philadelphia, causing the deficit to expand to 1,545 laws.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will go all in with the Chisox, Bucs and Padres -- 20 units apiece.