8-4-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Philadelphia Phillies At SF Giants MLB Betting Preview
By: Adam Markowitz


Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco (+125, 6.5)

Last season, it was the San Francisco Giants who kept the Philadelphia Phillies from winning their third straight National League pennant. Now, these two potential postseason combatants square off once again at AT&T Park on Thursday night for the first game of a crucial 4-game weekend series.

The first pitch from AT&T Park in San Francisco is set for 7:15 (PT), and there will be live television coverage on Comcast Sports Network.

The Phillies are on a clip to win 104 games this season, and the threat is there for them to be one of the best teams in MLB history. They're clearly sailing through the rest of the regular season, as they have an 8-game lead that will almost certainly prove to be insurmountable in the NL East.

They haven't been beaten in a game since Hunter Pence came aboard from the Houston Astros. Pence is batting .294 with his new club, and he has hit safely in all four games. The offense has averaged 5.50 runs per game since his arrival.

We know if the Phils put up five or more runs on Thursday night, they're probably in safe hands with Cliff Lee on the mound. Lee hasn't lost a game in which he has gotten five runs of help all season long.

There is definitely some cause for concern right now for the southpaw though, as his 10-7 record and 3.14 ERA aren't anything to really write home about. Sure, Lee will end up with over 200 strikeouts this season, but he already has 32 walks in his 22 starts, almost double the total number of walks that he had in 2010.

Lee has allowed nine runs in 11 2/3-innings over his last two starts combined. A whopping 21 men have reached base in those two starts, which is an alarming number considering the fact that last season, he only allowed an average of 7.61 hits and walks allowed per game. It's not like these were offensive juggernauts he was facing either; they were only the Pittsburgh Pirates and the San Diego Padres.

The G-Men on the other hand, are going the wrong direction. They're coming off of a disastrous series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they now know that they are almost certainly going to be in a dogfight with their top NL West competitors for the rest of the season.

San Fran added Carlos Beltran just before the trade deadline, and he hasn't lent nearly the same helping hand that Pence has for the Phillies. Beltran is hitting just .200 with his new team, and the club hasn't won a game since July 28. The Giants are averaging just 1.60 runs per game on this losing streak, dropping the team's average offensive marks to 3.50 runs per game, No. 28 in baseball.

Madison Bumgarner has only gotten 3.0 runs of support per outing this year, which is why he has a 6-10 record. The southpaw hasn't pitched poorly though, as he has a solid 3.80 ERA, but that lack of run support has been killing him.

Bumgarner was rocked in his last start against the Cincinnati Reds, allowing seven runs, five of which were earned, in just four frames. It stopped a string of six straight victories for the Giants on the MLB betting lines in games that he started.

Dating back to the end of the regular season last year, the Giants have won seven of the last 10 meetings of these two NL behemoths, including taking two out of three in the city of Brotherly Love just a week and a half ago.

Temperatures should be cool and breezy at AT&T Park on Thursday night. Low temperatures are expected in the low-50s with westerly winds around 15 mph.

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Brett Cecil, Toronto Blue Jays (4-4, 4.34 ERA)

Cecil isn’t setting the world on fire with his recent performances, but for a Toronto staff that has struggled with consistency, the southpaw is exactly what the club needs to stay afloat in the American League East. Cecil is 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his last four starts. His most recent outing was seven-inning effort, in which Cecil allowed only one earned run on seven hits for a 3-2 victory over Texas.

Ivan Nova, New York Yankees (9-4, 4.01 ERA)

Nova seems to be singing for his supper with the big ball club after impressing Yankees faithful in his return from Triple-A. In his first start since July 1, the right hander allowed two runs on six hits over seven innings in a win against the Orioles Saturday. That victory improves Nova to 5-0 with a 3.25 ERA in his last six big-league appearances, dating back to June 10. However, his spot in the rotation is anything but guaranteed, giving the youngster extra motivation going against the ChiSox Thursday.


SLUMPING

Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles (6-8, 4.56 ERA)

If Britton wants to snap his current funk, he might want to take baby steps – like try getting out of the first inning - when he takes the mound Thursday. Baltimore’s lefty has been hit early into his last two starts. He was thumped for seven earned runs in 2-3 of an inning versus the Red Sox on July 8 and was knocked around for six earned runs, throwing 43 pitches, while just registering a single out in the first inning against the Yankees Saturday. He’s lost four of his last six starts and hasn’t picked up a “W” since June 8.

Erik Bedard, Boston Red Sox (4-7, 3.45 ERA)

Perhaps a change of scenery can snap Bedard’s slumping ways? The newest member of the BoSox, coming over in a trade with the Mariners, has lost three straight starts and lugs an ERA north of 5.00 in those 14 1-3 innings. But, this is Boston, where the Red Sox lead the majors in most statistical categories for hitting. A nice change of pace from Seattle, where the Mariners rank dead last at the plate.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco (+125, 6.5)

After stumbling through a couple of series against the Reds and Diamondbacks, it doesn’t get any easier for the Giants.

San Francisco had dropped five straight games heading into its series finale with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday, which saw the club’s lead in the NL West division shrink down to nothing. They fought off the sweep and remain in first place thanks to another gem from Ryan Vogelsong, but they need to pull it together quickly.

Now they have to host a Philadelphia club that just blew past the Pirates and Rockies after dropping two out of three to the Giants.

The only good news for Giants bettors is that Cliff Lee gets the ball Wednesday. As crazy as that sounds, Lee has struggled lately allowing 18 hits and nine earned runs over his last two starts. Then again, Lee struck out 11 Pirates in his last start – a 7 2/3-inning effort during a 7-4 win – so he hasn’t been awful either.

This four-game set clearly means more to the Giants than it does to the Phillies, but this is a bad spot for them. The Phillies are surging and Madison Bumgarner is coming off a terrible start against Cincinnati.

PICK: Philadelphia


Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies (-140, 10)

The Washington Nationals don’t have a lot to play for right now, so they might as well get some of their youngsters some experience in the bigs.

That’s exactly why 25-year-old Ross Detwiler will take Tom Gorzelanny’s spot in the rotation Thursday against the Rockies. Detwiler has 20 starts and 10 relief appearances in the Majors under his belt, but this will be his big shot as he moves from the team’s long reliever to its No. 5 starter.

“It’s not that I don’t like Gorzelanny,” Nationals manager Davey Johnson told reporters. “Gorzelanny doesn’t have anything to prove to me. But if we were fighting for a pennant, we’re not going to do. But because we’re where we’re at, we’re going to look at some young arms, give them an opportunity to kind of establish.”

He’ll have a good chance to make a good impression Thursday with his Nats heading into this series on a hot streak against a Rockies club that is sputtering offensively and struggles at home.

We’ll take a shot at this price with Detwiler and the Nationals.

PICK: Washington

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
Minnesota Ly*x Host San Antonio Silver Stars
By: Michael Robinson


San Antonio Silver Stars at Minnesota Ly*x (-9.5, 160)

The WNBA’s Minnesota Ly*x shoot for their eighth straight victory when they host the San Antonio Silver Stars on Thursday night.

NBA-TV will have the 5:00 p.m. (PT) broadcast from the Target Center in Minneapolis.

Minnesota is 14-4 straight up and 12-6 against the spread. It has the best record in the league and a 3-game lead over San Antonio for tops in the Western Conference. That’s impressive for a franchise that hasn’t finished above .500 or made the playoffs since 2004.

The Ly*x last played Tuesday, a 90-73 win over Phoenix as 6 ½-point home favorites. A 14-2 run in the fourth quarter broke open the game. Rookie Maya Moore led with 22 points and she’s brought her winning ways from UConn while averaging 13.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists.

Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games and 6-1 ATS during this winning streak.

The 163 combined points scored last game went way ‘under’ the big 188-point total. Phoenix leads the league in points scored (90.6 PPG), but shot just 39.7 percent and was held to its lowest output since the season opener.

The Ly*x’ defense also had something to do with Phoenix’s troubles. They’re third in the WNBA in scoring defense (74.6 PPG). The ‘under’ is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Moore was one of four team All-Stars along with guard Seimone Augustus (16.6 PPG), forward Rebekkah Brunson (11.8 PPG, 9.9 RPG) and point guard Lindsay Whalen (14.1 PPG, 5.8 APG). These players have complimentary skill sets and it’s showing on the court.

Minnesota’s current winning streak includes a 70-69 win at San Antonio last Sunday, the only meeting between the teams this year. Whalen had a season-high 23 points and also hit the game-winner with 1.5 seconds left.

The Ly*x did fail to ‘cover’ at San Antonio as 3-point favorites. That’s the only ATS failure in the last seven and second in 10 games.

San Antonio (11-7 SU and ATS) started out the season really strong (7-1 SU and ATS), but is just 4-6 SU and ATS in its last 10. The Minnesota loss at home was followed by a 78-64 Tuesday defeat at Seattle as five-point ‘dogs.

Rookie Danielle Adams (14.3 PPG) has missed the last three games with a foot injury and isn’t expected back until early September. She also seemed to be hitting the rookie wall before getting hurt.

Guard Becky Hammon leads the team in scoring (16.8 PPG) at age 34. However, she’s streaky and just as likely to be in single digits as put up 20-plus. Hammon is forced to carry more of the scoring burden with Adams out, the same for forward Sophia Young (13.9 PPG) and guard Jia Perkins (13.1 PPG).

Young is averaging just 9.7 PPG since Adams went out and shooting a paltry 28.2 percent (11-of-39) from the field. Adams is also the second-leading rebounder (4.6 per game) behind Young (6.3) and the team has been outrebounded 116-78 the last three games.

The rebounding margin in the Minnesota game was 43-28 and that must be shrunk on Thursday.

San Antonio’s offense was struggling even before Adams got hurt, averaging 74.3 PPG in its last 11 games overall, with the ‘under’ 9-1-1. That’s a far cry from the first seven games at 93.3 PPG (the ‘over’ 5-2).

The Silver Stars are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road this year. They 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five visits to Minnesota, but just 4-11 ATS in the last 15 trips there overall.

[Mr. IWS]

LADY LUCK

Thursday's Best WNBA Bets

Chicago Sky at New York Liberty (-6, 151.5)

The Big Apple is rotten for WNBA bettors trying to cash in on the New York Liberty at home.

The Liberty have covered just once in their last four home stands, dropping to 5-5 against the spread inside Madison Square Garden. Their most recent blown cover at home came against the Phoenix Mercury, losing 91-84 as 2.5-point chalk Saturday.

New York, which bounced back from that loss with an 85-75 road win over the Atlanta Dream Tuesday, has averaged 76.5 points over the last four home games – almost four points less than their season average of 80.4. That may not seem like a lot to the casual basketball fan, but to hoops bettors, those four points can mean the difference between hot dogs or steak.

A reason for that offensive slump could be the Liberty’s outside shooting, which has dropped below its season average as well. Over those four home contests, New York has gone 22 for 69 from beyond the arc (31.8 percent), including a 5-for-19 night versus Phoenix. The Liberty shoot just under 37 percent from 3-point range on the season, which is fourth best in the WNBA.

New York could find open looks on the perimeter tough to come by Thursday. It takes on the Chicago Sky, one of the best defensive squads in the league and the top team at defending the 3-pointer – allowing opponents to shoot only 30.6 from beyond the arc.

PICK: Chicago +6


San Antonio Silver Stars at Minnesota Ly*x (-9.5, 160)

The Minnesota Ly*x are running away with the Western Conference lead, winning seven straight contests and nine of their last 10 outings. However, the one team that came the closest to slowing down Minnesota’s momentum is one the schedule Thursday night.

The San Antonio Silver Stars blew a 12-point halftime lead and fell 70-69 to the Ly*x Sunday, covering as 3-point home underdogs and handing Minnesota backers their only blemish against the spread during this current winning streak.

"You don't know until you've been in that spot," Ly*x forward Taj McWilliams-Franklin told reporters after the narrow victory. "This is the first time we've been down and had to come back. The games we lost, we were up and let the other teams come back on us. It was our first real challenge on the season."

Despite that close call, oddsmakers are giving the Silver Stars nearly 10 points in Minnesota Thursday. San Antonio, which is second in the West at 11-7, is a profitable 6-3 ATS on the road this summer and has covered in four of its last six outings.

PICK: San Antonio +9.5

[Mr. IWS]

CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL: Alouettes-Argonauts Preview
By GamblersPalace


Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts (+4.5, 52.5)

The Toronto Argonauts and the Montreal Alouettes kick it off at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada on Thursday, August 4th at 7:30 ET, and we’re set to make our CFL predictions for this East Division clash! Television coverage is slated to be on TSN.

For the first time in years, the Alouettes start off Week 6 in unfamiliar territory. They’re not in first place in the East Division. The Als have essentially coasted to four straight regular season division crowns, but last week’s loss to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats took them out of the catbird’s seat and made CFL betting predictions for the rest of the year a tad more difficult.

Last week was an embarrassment for QB Anthony Calvillo. Sure, he threw for 356 yards, but he only had one TD pass and completed just 23-of-45 passing. Needless to say, this wasn’t nearly a day to be proud of by the future Hall of Famer’s standards.

Calvillo also had a full receiving corps for the first time all season long. SJ Green, Jamel Richardson, Brian Bratton, and Kerry Watkins all shared the field for the first time, and it is only a matter of time until Prechae Rodriguez, the dangerous former Tiger-Cat comes into the fold as well.

For Toronto, CFL sportsbook predictions have been rough this year. After an opening week victory over the Calgary Stampeders, the Boatmen have totally gone into the tank, losing four straight games.

It’s still a bit of a mystery as to whether QB Cleo Lemon will be back this week, or whether the Argonauts even want him to come back as the starter. Last week, QB Dalton Bell had some good moments, but his stats weren’t all that impressive in the loss against the Edmonton Eskimos. He went 17-of-29 for 156 yards with no TDs and two picks. However, he had Toronto, a nine point underdog, looking like it was ready to pull an upset until late in the fourth quarter.

The real hero of the past few games has been RB Chad Kackert. The rookie rumbled for 139 yards and two TDs against the Eskimos, and he is most likely unseating last year’s Rookie of the Year, RB Cory Boyd, who is out for at least the next two months via injury.

Montreal is 10-2 ATS over the last 12 meetings against Toronto, including winning a game 40-17 just three weeks ago at home. Over the last two clashes, the Alouettes have outscored the Argos 88-34.

CFL Odds Predictions – The Argonauts are in a lot of trouble right now, and at some point, Montreal really has to wake up. Don’t be shocked if that happens in a big way Thursday night.

[Mr. IWS]

CANADIAN BACON

Thursday's Best CFL Bets

Montreal Alouettes at Toronto Argonauts (+4.5, 52.5)

The Alouettes are coming to Toronto with a sense of urgency after losing two games in a row, something that hasn’t happened to them since 2008.

Montreal receiver Kerry Watkins, who was back in action in Hamilton, should find his timing by Thursday and you can expect Anthony Calvillo to take full advantage of it. Although the Argos have a defensive front that can put pressure on Calvillo, Toronto’s zone pass coverage will play right into the Alouettes’ passing game and give them a chance to control the ball.

Montreal will be without safety Etienne Boulay (concussion) again, but in his absence Jeff Hecht and Tad Crawford have shared duties with efficiency despite the loss to Hamilton. The injury to DT J.P. Bekasiak has forced a reshuffling on the defensive line, where Anwar Stewart will play tackle.

What the Alouettes lose in size, they gain in speed, allowing them to put pressure on Argos QB Cleo Lemon. Speaking of the Argos, Chad Owens hasn’t been as impressive as last summer. He only caught two passes last week and has been averaging a fumble a game.

If the Alouettes manage to finally play with discipline, which they haven’t done in the last few games, they should win.

PICK: Montreal

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Betting Tips: Giants Hammering The Over

Who’s Hot

MLB: The over is 7-2 in Tampa Bay’s last nine games.

MLB: Florida has won eight of its last 10.

CFL: Montreal has covered the number in 10 of its last 12 meetings with Toronto.

WNBA: New York is 9-4-1 against the spread in its last 14 games overall.

Who’s Not

MLB: Washington is 10-29 in its last 29 games against Colorado.

MLB: Philadelphia has dropped seven of its last 10 matchups with San Francisco.

CFL: Toronto has lost four straight, covering once over that span.

WNBA: The over is 1-9-1 in San Antonio’s last 11 games.

Key Stat

5 – The San Francisco Giants have lost five of their last six games, but have been money for over bettors recently. The Giants have played over the total in each of their last five, which is very uncharacteristic for them. San Francisco has actually played under the total 59 times this season - second in the bigs to only the White Sox, who have played under 60 times.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds – Rolen is expected to miss at least a month following arthroscopic shoulder surgery, leaving a void at the hot corner. Rolen is hitting just .242 this year, but now Cincy will have to lean on rookie Todd Frazier and Miguel Cairo at third base. “He played a huge role on this team,” Reds manager Dusty Bakern said of Rolen. “We’ve got to carry on. We’ve got games in the mean time.”

Game Of The Day

Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants (+125, 6.5)

Notable Quotable

“He’d played the best quarter of football he’s had since he got here, so why wouldn’t he start? When your tooth splits, there are head problems and through (last week) we weren’t going to take any chances. He was fuzzy during the week.” – Toronto Argonauts coach Jim Baker on quarterback Cleo Lemon’s status for Thursday's game against Montreal. Lemon has been out since taking a helmet-to-helmet hit against Winnipeg on July 23. In other news, Toronto running back Cory Boyd (knee) is still questionable even though he has been practicing most of the week. The Argos are set as 4.5-point home underdogs.

Tips And Notes

The Minnesota Ly*x head into Thursday’s date with San Antonio riding an impressive 21-8 run against the spread. They have covered in eight of their last 10, but San Antonio stole the cash in their last meeting. Minnesota came away with the 70-69 win, but couldn’t cover as a 3-point home favorite.

The Denver Broncos have reportedly told Kyle Orton that he will not be traded and will begin the season as the team’s starting quarterback. This news comes just days after the club nearly completed a deal to send the veteran QB to Miami, which would have left them with second-year signal caller Tim Tebow as their No. 1 quarterback.

Detroit Lions DT Nick Fairley will be out for a “significant portion” of training camp after going under the knife to fix his ailing foot Wednesday. Word has it he was suffering from a stress fracture and it doesn’t look like he’ll be lining up on the line with Ndamukong Suh in Week 1.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

690- 516 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Thurs: Texas -140

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Brewers Wednesday.

Thursday it's the Rays. The deficit is 2,774 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo opened with a loss yesterday afternoon with Mi Hermana in the third at Saratoga, but rallied last night by posting a positive split with the Twins and Pirates to put the debt at 2,215 woodlings.

Today, Mr. Aitch will go with Cecil by day and Nova by night -- 20 units apiece on the Blue Jays and Yankees.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play THURSDAY

Royals -140

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Montreal at Toronto

The Alouettes look to take advantage of a Toronto team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home. Montreal is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 4
Time Posted: 6:00 p.m. EST (8/2) Game 491-492: Montreal at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 119.316; Toronto 110.284
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 9; 50
Vegas Line: Montreal by 4 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-4 1/2); Under

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

San Antonio at Minnesota

The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 Thursday games. San Antonio is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+9). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 4
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST Game 651-652: Chicago at New York (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 107.215; New York 116.428
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 9; 146
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 6; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-6); Under Game 653-654: San Antonio at Minnesota (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 111.667; Minnesota 118.801
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 7; 160 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 9; 157
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+9); Over