8-4-11

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Texas at Detroit

The Tigers look to build on their 5-1 record in Brad Penny's last 6 starts in Game 3 of a series. Detroit is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115). Here are all of today's picks.
THURSDAY, AUGUST 4
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lopez) 14.215; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.810
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); Over Game 953-954: St. Louis at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 15.436; Florida (Hensley) 14.238
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under Game 955-956: Washington at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 14.924; Colorado (Rogers) 14.450
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+120); Over Game 957-958: Philadelphia at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.581; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.691
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Over Game 959-960: Toronto at Tampa Bay (12:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.538; Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.343
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Over Game 961-962: Texas at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 15.071; Detroit (Penny) 15.425
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Under Game 963-964: Cleveland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.082; Boston (Bedard) 16.009
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Under Game 965-966: NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 16.964; White Sox (Humber) 14.342
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Over Game 967-968: Baltimore at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Britton) 15.304; Kansas City (Francis) 14.211
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over Game 969-970: Minnesota at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.258; LA Angels (Haren) 16.108
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-120); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Royals -140 over Orioles

[Mr. IWS]

Soccer Crusher
Play of the Day:

SaoPaulo + Bahia OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Royals -140 over Orioles

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Yankees
Angels

[Mr. IWS]

BENNY REED

Tigers +1.5 RL
Blue Jays ML

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ FREE PICK

Under 10 Washington/Colorado

[Mr. IWS]

MLB WRITE UP

THURSDAY, AUGUST 4

HOT PITCHERS
-- McDonald is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three home starts.
-- Hensley is 1-1, 2.65 in three starts for the Marlins.
-- Detwiler won his first '11 start, allowing two runs in 5.1 IP in 3-2 win against the Cubs.
-- Bumgarner is 3-0, 3.14 in his last four home starts.

-- Toronto won Cecil's last four starts (3-0, 2.17).
-- Ogando is 2-0, 0.61 vs Detroit this year, 3-2, 2.83 in his last five starts overall.
-- Former Red Sox Masterson is 3-2, 2.10 in his last seven starts.
-- Nova is 3-0, 2.67 in his last four starts.
-- Francis is 1-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Liriano is 4-2, 2.86 in his last seven road starts.

COLD PITCHERS
-- Lopez is 1-1, 5.29 in his last three starts.
-- Lohse is 1-3, 6.89 in his last six starts.
-- Rogers has a 9.00 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lee is 1-2, 5.18 in his last five starts.

-- Davis is 1-1, 8.27 in his last three starts.
-- Penny is 2-2, 6.94 in his last four starts.
-- In his last two starts, Britton got three outs, allowed 17 runs.
-- Humber is 0-3, 9.00 in his last three starts.
-- Francis is 1-0, 2.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Chatwood is 1-3, 5.53 in his last five starts.

TOTALS
-- Under is 5-2 in last seven McDonald starts.
-- Over is 5-1-2 in last eight St Louis road games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Washington's last twelve games.
-- Over is 9-3 in Philly's last twelve road games.

-- Under is 9-3-2 in last fourteen Texas road games.
-- Five of last seven Boston games stayed under total.
-- Four of last six Toronto road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Kansas City home games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Bronx road games.
-- Under is 8-4 in Angels' last twelve home games.

HOT TEAMS
-- Washington won four of its last five games.
-- Marlins won eight of their last ten games.
-- Cubs won their last four games, scoring 23 runs.
-- Phillies won 12 of their last 15 games.

-- Detroit won four of its last five games.
-- Red Sox won 13 of their last 18 games.
-- Bronx won 14 of its last 19 games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven games.
-- Royals are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
-- Angels are 5-0 in the game following their last five losses.

COLD TEAMS
-- Pittsburgh lost eight of its last nine games.
-- Cardinals lost three of their last four games.
-- Colorado lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Giants lost five of their last six games.

-- Rangers lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Indians lost 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Rays are 3-5 in their last eight home games.
-- White Sox lost 11 of their last 15 home games.
-- Orioles lost six of their last eight games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Silver Key Pick for Thursday ML Baseball

DETROIT PENNY -R +1.5 Runs, -145 over Texas

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

TORONTO +4½ over Montreal

This one is as tempting as it gets in terms of laying the points but we know better. The Als have dropped two in a row and they’re bound to come out with purpose tonight. Offensively, they’re a whole lot better than the Argos and as always they should be able to move the chains. The problem with the Als is their defense that continues to give up big plays, big points and big yardage. Montreal is still considered the class of the East and laying small points with them on the road against the one-win Argos sure seems like a decent play. We’re not so sure. The Argos have just one win but gave the 5-0 Eskies a real scare last week in Edmonton. The Argos defense is a formidable one that always keeps them in games. These two met in Montreal on July 15 and the Alouettes buried the Argos by a score of 40-17. However, that score is certainly misleading, as the Als held a slim 23-17 edge going to the fourth quarter. Toronto gets Cleo Lemon back for this game and whether that’s a good thing or not remains to be seen. What we do know is that the Argos have been in every game. They beat the Stamps in Calgary, they had big leads on Winnipeg and Edmonton but they seem to fall just short. With a great defense and an improving offense the Argos could be on the verge of its second win and if it came here it would not surprise us one bit. Play: Toronto +4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +115

Wade Davis is 8-7 only because he’s the one pitcher on the Rays staff that gets decent run support otherwise his record would be in the 3W-12L range. Aside from decent control all of Davis’s other skills are below average. He has a big flyball bias profile (46%), which confirms his bombs allowed issues are legit. His strikeout rate is poor, his xERA is poor and his actual ERA isn’t much better. Davis has a 7.16 ERA over the past month and an overall ERA of 4.62 in 19 starts. His 1.46 WHIP is bordering on unacceptable and the league is hitting .284 off him. Over his past three starts against Oakland, Kansas City and Minnesota, Davis allowed 26 hits and 15 runs in 16.1 innings for an ERA of 7.76. Brett Cecil has thrown back-to-back gems against the Rangers in which he went 16 innings against them and allowed one earned run. Cecil has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts and has pitched seven frames or more in all four. In his lone poor start over that stretch he allowed four runs in the first two innings and then went the next five innings without allowing a run. The Jays have won his last four starts and no matter how you break this one down, Cecil taking back a tag is a much better play than laying juice with the Rays and Davis. Play: Toronto +115 (Risking 2 units).


Washington +132

The Nationals aren’t far off from being contenders and with a couple of good arms and Stephen Strasburg healthy next year they could certainly make a run. This team plays with heart and passion and they have some outstanding young talent too in Danny Espinosa, Michael Morse and Ian Desmond. Jason Werth has finally started to hit and the quiet acquisition of Jonny Gomes was a good one. This game features two pitchers that have had similar years in that both have been up and down from the minors and both have appeared in less than eight games in the majors for their respective teams. Ross Detwiler has appeared in only six and has started only once. However, he’s a starter all the way and he has the potential to be a good one. He’s always had outstanding minor-league numbers but has not been able to carry over those skills to the majors….yet. Detwiler is an elite groundball pitcher and that’s always a good thing at Coors. Detwiler has allowed just two runs in his last 10 innings out of the bullpen and over that same span he’s struck out nine batters for a solid strikeout rate. Emil Rogers went 2-3 with a 6.13 ERA in 72 IP for Colorado last year. In seven games this year that includes four starts, he’s walked 16 in 28 frames and has posted a 7.31 ERA and a dreadful 1.76 WHIP. The Rockies have lost four in a row and eight of their past 11 games and offer up nothing as the chalk with an unproven Rogers going. The Nationals state of mind is very good, as this team plays hard every game and they're sensing something good is happening in D.C. Play: Washington +132 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Thursday
Play Toronto (+110) over Tampa Bay (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 12:10 PM EST
Brett Cecil has won 16 of the last 23 road games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has also won 14 of the last 17 games when pitching with five or six days of rest. Brett Cecil has won 15 of the last 23 games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.35.

Play Cleveland (+150) over Boston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Justin Masterson has won 7 of the last 8 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is 2-0 vs. Boston over his career with an ERA of 1.25. Justin Masterson has an ERA of 2.42 in road games this season and he has an ERA of 1.19 over his last three overall starts.

Play Chicago White Sox (+105) over New York (Bonus)
Starts 8:10 PM EST

Canadian Football Thursday
100* Play Montreal (-4) over Toronto
Starts at 7:30 PM EST
Montreal has covered the spread in 8 of the last 10 games coming off a loss and they have also won and covered the spread in 3 of the last 4 dome games. Montreal has won 10 of the last 12 games vs. Toronto and they are averaging over 32 points a game on offense this season.

[Mr. IWS]

RAS
WNBA

651 Chicago Sky +6.5 (CRIS at 7)

Note: 9:05am PST start time

[Mr. IWS]

OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS

3 UNIT Toronto / Tampa Bay OVER 8

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Orioles +110

50* Over 8.5 Rays/Jays

[Mr. IWS]

Todays Picks

Florida Marlins ML

Kansas City Royals ML