8-6-11

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Tulsa at San Antonio

The Silver Stars look to take advantage of a Tulsa team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing with 0 days rest. San Antonio is the pick (-14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Silver Stars favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-14 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 6
Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST
Game 651-652: New York at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.907; Washington 110.288
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2 1/2; 150
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Tulsa at San Antonio (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 96.300; San Antonio 115.350
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 19; 145
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 14 1/2; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-14 1/2); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Today's CFL Picks

Hamilton at Calgary

The Stampeders look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in the last 5 meetings between the two teams. Calgary is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-4). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 6
Time Posted: 6:00 p.m. EST (8/2)
Game 497-498: Hamilton at Calgary (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 110.592; Calgary 116.233
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 5 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Calgary by 4; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-4); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

Washington at Colorado

The Nationals look to take advantage of a Colorado team that is 0-7 in Jhoulys Chacin's last 7 starts. Washington is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+155). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, AUGUST 6
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 16.300; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.348
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); N/A
Game 953-954: Philadelphia at San Francisco (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.022; San Francisco (Cain) 15.249
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Under
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Houston (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Narveson) 16.436; Houston (Myers) 14.158
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Under
Game 957-958: San Diego at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Luebke) 14.343; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.412
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-120); Over
Game 959-960: St. Louis at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.129; Florida (Nolasco) 14.545
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Over
Game 961-962: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.081; NY Mets (Niese) 15.386
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over
Game 963-964: Washington at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.869; Colorado (Chacin) 14.504
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-175); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+155); Under
Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Eovaldi) 14.480; Arizona (Saunders) 16.058
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Boston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.141; Boston (Lackey) 15.442
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-150); Under
Game 969-970: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.456; Baltimore (Tillman) 14.957
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+125); Over
Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Stewart) 13.496; Minnesota (Pavano) 15.167
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-105); Over
Game 973-974: Detroit at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.159; Kansas City (Duffy) 15.328
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under
Game 975-976: Oakland at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (McCarthy) 15.533; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.304
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+135); Under
Game 977-978: Cleveland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.589; Texas (Wilson) 16.778
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-200); Over
Game 979-980: Seattle at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 15.363; LA Angels (Chatwood) 15.846
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Angels -150 over Mariners

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 7.5 runs bet. the Angels and Seattle

[Mr. IWS]

MLB WRITE UP
SATURDAY, AUGUST 6

HOT PITCHERS
-- Cueto is 5-2, 2.44 in his last ten starts. Zambrano is 3-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 6-4, 2.10 in his last thirteen starts.
-- Westbrook is 5-1, 2.82 in his last six road starts. Nolasco is 2-0, 2.03 in his last couple starts, but Florida lost nine of his last ten at home.
-- Narveson is 1-0, 2.41 in his last three starts.
-- Saunders is 2-0, 1.93 in his last three starts.

-- Sabathia is 7-1, 1.01 in his last eight starts. Lackey is 4-0, 4.11 in his last five starts.
-- Toronto won seven of Morrow's eight road starts.
-- Cobb is 3-1, 2.15 in his last six starts. McCarthy is 3-0, 3.70 in his last four starts.
-- Verlander is 3-0, 2.63 in his last three starts.
-- Carmona is 1-1, 2.79 in his last three starts.

COLD PITCHERS
-- Cain is 1-2, 4.74 in his last four starts.
-- Hanson has a 6.56 RA in his last four starts, but Atlanta won his last eight road starts. Niese has a 6.61 RA in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 0-2, 4.88 in his last four starts. Luebke is 0-3, 5.89 in his last three starts.
-- Myers is 0-5, 5.28 in his last seven starts.
-- Chacin is 0-4, 5.44 in his last seven starts. Hernandez is 1-2, 6.66 in his last five starts.
-- Rookie Eovaldi is 6-5, 2.62 in 19 AA starts this season; this is his first big league start.

-- Tillman is 1-2, 6.04 in his last six starts.
-- Pavano is 0-2, 9.41 in his last four starts. Stewart was 0-1, 4.86 in three starts for Toronto; this is his first start for the White Sox.
-- Duffy is 1-2, 6.23 in his last four starts.
-- Texas lost last three Wilson starts (0-2, 8.04).
-- Chatwood is 1-3, 5.53 in his last five starts. Beavan is 1-2, 4.05 in his last three outings.

TOTALS
-- Seven of Reds' last eight road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Padres' last seven road games.
-- Four of Mets' last five games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten St Louis road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in Milwaukee's last nine road games.
-- Seven of last ten Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-3 in Dodgers' last nine road games.
-- Under is 10-4 in Cain's last fourteen starts.

-- Three of last four Tillman starts went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-2 in last ten Bronx road games.
-- Nine of last eleven Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Carmona starts.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Minnesota's last twelve home games.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Kansas City home games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Seattle games.

HOT TEAMS
-- Marlins won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs won their last six games, scoring 34 runs.
-- Brewers won nine of their last ten games. Houston won four of its last six home games.
-- Atizona won four of its last six games. Dodgers won four of their last five road games.
-- Phillies won 14 of their last 17 games.

-- Rays won six of their last eight games.
-- Blue Jays won six of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox won 13 of their last 20 games. Bronx won 16 of its last 21 games, including last eight in a row.
-- Royals are 10-6 in their last sixteen games. Detroit won four of its last five games.
-- Mariners won four of their last six games. Angels won seven of ten.

COLD TEAMS
-- Cincinnati lost 10 of its last 14 road games.
-- Pittsburgh lost ten of its last eleven games. Padres lost seven of 11.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games.
-- Mets lost their last five games, outscored 21-9. Atlanta is 4-6 in its last ten road games.
-- Colorado lost nine of its last thirteen games. Washington lost five of its last seven road games.
-- Giants lost seven of their last eight games.

-- Oakland lost 15 of its last 18 road games.
-- Indians lost 11 of their last 15 games. Texas lost six of its last ten.
-- Orioles lost eight of their last ten games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last seven games. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.

UMPIRES
-- Cin-Chi-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Danley games.
-- Phil-SF-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Winters games.
-- Mil-Hst-- Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Cederstrom games, with dogs winning his last five games behind plate.
-- SD-Pitt-- Road team won five of last six TBarrett games.
-- StL-Fla-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Nelson games.
-- Atl-NY-- Six of last nine Bellino games stayed under the total.
-- Wsh-Col-- Six of last seven Miller games stayed under total.
-- LA-Az-- Last five Marquez games stayed under the total.

-- NY-Bos-- Road team won nine of last eleven Carlson games.
-- Tor-Blt-- Four of last five Layne games went over the total.
-- Chi-Min-- Three of last four Tichenor games went over the total.
-- Det-KC-- Home team won nine of last ten Porter games.
-- A's-TB-- Underdogs are 9-7 in last sixteen Reynolds games.
-- Cle-Tex-- Eight of last nine Cousins games stayed under total.
-- Sea-LA-- Road team won five of last six Scott games.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB WRITE UP
SATURDAY, AUGUST 6

HOT PITCHERS
-- Cueto is 5-2, 2.44 in his last ten starts. Zambrano is 3-1, 2.19 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 6-4, 2.10 in his last thirteen starts.
-- Westbrook is 5-1, 2.82 in his last six road starts. Nolasco is 2-0, 2.03 in his last couple starts, but Florida lost nine of his last ten at home.
-- Narveson is 1-0, 2.41 in his last three starts.
-- Saunders is 2-0, 1.93 in his last three starts.

-- Sabathia is 7-1, 1.01 in his last eight starts. Lackey is 4-0, 4.11 in his last five starts.
-- Toronto won seven of Morrow's eight road starts.
-- Cobb is 3-1, 2.15 in his last six starts. McCarthy is 3-0, 3.70 in his last four starts.
-- Verlander is 3-0, 2.63 in his last three starts.
-- Carmona is 1-1, 2.79 in his last three starts.

COLD PITCHERS
-- Cain is 1-2, 4.74 in his last four starts.
-- Hanson has a 6.56 RA in his last four starts, but Atlanta won his last eight road starts. Niese has a 6.61 RA in his last three starts.
-- Maholm is 0-2, 4.88 in his last four starts. Luebke is 0-3, 5.89 in his last three starts.
-- Myers is 0-5, 5.28 in his last seven starts.
-- Chacin is 0-4, 5.44 in his last seven starts. Hernandez is 1-2, 6.66 in his last five starts.
-- Rookie Eovaldi is 6-5, 2.62 in 19 AA starts this season; this is his first big league start.

-- Tillman is 1-2, 6.04 in his last six starts.
-- Pavano is 0-2, 9.41 in his last four starts. Stewart was 0-1, 4.86 in three starts for Toronto; this is his first start for the White Sox.
-- Duffy is 1-2, 6.23 in his last four starts.
-- Texas lost last three Wilson starts (0-2, 8.04).
-- Chatwood is 1-3, 5.53 in his last five starts. Beavan is 1-2, 4.05 in his last three outings.

TOTALS
-- Seven of Reds' last eight road games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Padres' last seven road games.
-- Four of Mets' last five games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten St Louis road games.
-- Under is 7-2 in Milwaukee's last nine road games.
-- Seven of last ten Colorado games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-3 in Dodgers' last nine road games.
-- Under is 10-4 in Cain's last fourteen starts.

-- Three of last four Tillman starts went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-2 in last ten Bronx road games.
-- Nine of last eleven Tampa Bay games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Carmona starts.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Minnesota's last twelve home games.
-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Kansas City home games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Seattle games.

HOT TEAMS
-- Marlins won eight of their last twelve games.
-- Cubs won their last six games, scoring 34 runs.
-- Brewers won nine of their last ten games. Houston won four of its last six home games.
-- Atizona won four of its last six games. Dodgers won four of their last five road games.
-- Phillies won 14 of their last 17 games.

-- Rays won six of their last eight games.
-- Blue Jays won six of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox won 13 of their last 20 games. Bronx won 16 of its last 21 games, including last eight in a row.
-- Royals are 10-6 in their last sixteen games. Detroit won four of its last five games.
-- Mariners won four of their last six games. Angels won seven of ten.

COLD TEAMS
-- Cincinnati lost 10 of its last 14 road games.
-- Pittsburgh lost ten of its last eleven games. Padres lost seven of 11.
-- Cardinals lost four of their last six games.
-- Mets lost their last five games, outscored 21-9. Atlanta is 4-6 in its last ten road games.
-- Colorado lost nine of its last thirteen games. Washington lost five of its last seven road games.
-- Giants lost seven of their last eight games.

-- Oakland lost 15 of its last 18 road games.
-- Indians lost 11 of their last 15 games. Texas lost six of its last ten.
-- Orioles lost eight of their last ten games.
-- White Sox lost six of their last seven games. Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.

UMPIRES
-- Cin-Chi-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Danley games.
-- Phil-SF-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Winters games.
-- Mil-Hst-- Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Cederstrom games, with dogs winning his last five games behind plate.
-- SD-Pitt-- Road team won five of last six TBarrett games.
-- StL-Fla-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Nelson games.
-- Atl-NY-- Six of last nine Bellino games stayed under the total.
-- Wsh-Col-- Six of last seven Miller games stayed under total.
-- LA-Az-- Last five Marquez games stayed under the total.

-- NY-Bos-- Road team won nine of last eleven Carlson games.
-- Tor-Blt-- Four of last five Layne games went over the total.
-- Chi-Min-- Three of last four Tichenor games went over the total.
-- Det-KC-- Home team won nine of last ten Porter games.
-- A's-TB-- Underdogs are 9-7 in last sixteen Reynolds games.
-- Cle-Tex-- Eight of last nine Cousins games stayed under total.
-- Sea-LA-- Road team won five of last six Scott games.

[Mr. IWS]

FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Saturday
Play St. Louis (-130) over Florida (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Ricky Nolasco has lost 6 of the last 8 home games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 8 of the last 11 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Ricky Nolasco is 0-3 vs. St. Louis over his career with an ERA of 7.67 and he has an ERA of 7.90 over his last three overall starts.

Play Colorado (-165) over Washington (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST
Livan Hernandez has lost 10 of the last 11 road games and he has also lost 16 of the last 19 games vs. NL West Division Opponents. Livan Hernandez has lost 5 consecutive games as an underdog of +150 or higher and he has also lost 7 of the last 10 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs.

Play Texas (-200) over Cleveland (Bonus)
Starts at 8:15 PM EST

Canadian Football Saturday
100* Play Hamilton (+3.5) over Calgary
Starts at 9:30 PM EST
Calgary has lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread coming off two or more UNDER the totals and they have also lost 10 of the last 13 games against the spread coming off a win by eight points or less. Calgary has lost 3 of the last 4 games as a favorite and they are only averaging 20 points a game on offense over the last three games.

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS SPORTS PLAYS

JOHNNY YANG
3* Braves -120 ML

CARTER WILLIAMS
10* Reds -135 ML

BROOKS RILEY
3* Phillies -125 ML

GLENN LONG
3* Cardinals -125 ML

[Mr. IWS]

MLB PREDICTIONS

4* Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs - REDS TO WIN (-135) *1:05 PM EST START
(Note: I'm risking 4.05 units to win 3)
The Cubs look to make is 7 straight wins on Saturday, but they will be in tough. The Reds send Johnny Cueto to the mound, who has been one of the National League's best starting pitchers. Cueto is 7-4 on the season with a stellar 1.72 ERA (lowest in the majors) and 0.98 WHIP. Batters are hitting just .197 against Cueto over his 16 starts. In his 11 starts vs the Cubs in his career Cueto is 4-5 with a 3.44 ERA. The Cubs send Carlos Zambrano to the mound this afternoon, who has been up and down all season long. Zambrano is 8-6 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Batters are hitting .273 against Carlos. In his only start vs the Reds this season (May 16th) Zambrano lasted just 5.1 innings while giving up 6 hits and 6 earned runs. Note that the Reds are 50-24 in their last 74 road games vs a team with a losing record, and 27-13 in their last 40 Saturday games. They are also 4-1 in Cueto's last 5 starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The Reds are 5-2 in Cueto's last 7 starts vs NL Central opponents. Take note that the Cubs are just 23-55 in their last 78 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, and 10-22 in their last 32 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 Saturday games, and 5-15 in their last 20 during game 2 of a series. Zambrano struggles coming off of a quality start, as the Cubs are 2-6 in his last 8 starts following a quality start. The Cubs are also just 2-7 in his last 9 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150, and 2-6 in his last 8 starts vs NL Central teams. The Reds have taken 6 of these two teams 8 meetings this season, and 19- of their last 26 meetings overall. Also note that the Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 at Wrigley Field. Chicago has put together an impressive 6 game winning streak, but face a very tough pitcher here this afternoon. Look for Cueto to keep the Cubbies off the scoreboard for the most part, and the Reds to spoil the win streak. I like the odds we're getting on one of the Major's best starters behind one of the NL's best offenses. Lets switch sides today and take the Reds at a generous price.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati -136 over CHICAGO: Ok we're gonna try again. Yesterday the Reds had plenty of chances vs the Cubs, but just couldn't get that clutch hit. Johnny Cueto gets the ball for the Reds as he will look to stop the Cubs winning ways. Johnny has had a fine season with a 7-4 mark and a league best 1.72 ERA, including a 4-2 mark with a 1.89 ERA on the road. He also comes in at 2-1 with an 0.45 ERA in his last 3 starts overall and in his last 3 starts vs the Cubs he is 2-0 with an 0.47 ERA. Johnny also has some strong WHIP numbers as it is 0.98 overall and 1.05 on the road. Carlos Zambrano has pitched better of late as he is 2-1 with a 2.41 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he has a high 1.50 WHIP in those 3 starts. Carlos is also just 2-3 with a 4.68 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP at home. He just allows too many men on base and the Reds, who come in averaging 4.9 rpg in their last 11 games should be able to get to Carlos in this one, while Johnny Cueto may be just the right guy at the just right time to shut down this Cubs team. The streak ends at 6 here.


2 UNIT PLAY

NY Yanks/ Boston Over 9: Yes John Lackey has been better of late, and Yes CC has been tough this year, but I see both offenses getting the better of it this afternoon. CC's road starts have averaged 9.25rpg on the year and he has a 4.83 ERA in his last 4 starts at Fenway. John Lackey's home starts have averaged 10.91 ERA and he has a 6.56 at Fenway this year, plus he has a 6.26 ERA in his last 3 starts vs the Yanks. I see double digits here.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

San Diego +106 over PITTSBURGH

The Pirates have now lost eight in a row and the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here. During its losing streak, Pittsburgh’s pitching has been torched and in fact, they surrendered five runs or more in all but one of those eight games. Overall, they’ve allowed 62 runs or an average of 7.75 RPG against over that eight-game stretch. The bullpen is running on fumes and the starters are trying to be too fine. While his 6-11 record doesn't show it, Paul Maholm has shaved nearly two full runs off his ERA since last year and is working his way back to relevance. What's behind this apparent revival? As it turns out, luck. Maholm's skills remain mediocre: Maholm's hit% is the lowest in four years and his strand rate is at the highest level. In other words, he's been fortunate. He's fanning marginally more hitters than he did a year ago, and walking the same number. Maholm's GB% is still good, but it's been declining slowly. Maholm may or may not end up with an ERA below 4.00, but if he does it'll be because he's lucky, not because he's morphed into a better pitcher at age 29. He remains an innings eater and bettors should think twice before being lured by the impressive but lucky ERA. Cory Luebke has a sub-3.25 ERA, and it's no fluke. He’s struck out 82 and walked just 22 in 81 IP and has a WHIP if 0.98. Luebke’s groundball rate is also trending the right way. There’s not a single warning sign about Luebke but there are plenty around Maholm. It’s also worth noting that the Padres are a decent hitting club versus lefties and they’re wrongfully being billed as the pooch today because of Maholm’s misleading numbers. Buy in. Play: San Diego +106 (Risking 2 units).


Los Angeles +125 over ARIZONA

No line on this game at the time of this writing but you can figure the D-Backs to be in the –135 price range. Joe Saunders continues to get bashed against righties and until that changes he’ll continue to struggle against right-handed lineups. The Dodgers will feature a heavily tilted right handed line-up to face Saunders because of his BAA of .273, OPB of .364, a .466 SLG% and an off the charts OPS of .810. Saunders is 2-4 at home with a 4.63 ERA and he’ll face this Dodger line-up for the second time in five days. He beat the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine on July 31 but allowed eight hits (2 ER) in seven innings and worked out of a few jams. Chase Field isn’t so friendly. The D-Backs have lost two in a row while the Dodgers have won three of four and this is the time of year that these spoilers become a lot more dangerous. They have nothing to play for other than making life miserable for contenders and that gives teams that are out of it great satisfaction. The Dodgers will recall Nate Eovaldi from Double-A to make his Major League debut. Eovaldi has seen his prospect status rise steadily throughout the year after a less than stellar '10 campaign. His control and command need attention, but he's been more dominant, as his fastball has increased a few ticks. He pitches off his 90-95 mph fastball early in the count and his secondary stuff more is also good, led by his curveball which could become a plus pitch with more time. His fastball exhibits plenty of late action down in the strike zone and he induces a large amount of groundballs. Because he's still raw, his changeup is not effective. An inconsistent release point and erratic mechanics have resulted in the command issues but his stuff is outstanding. He’s allowed just 76 hits in 103 innings and just for Chattanooga for a BAA of .203 and has 99 k’s to go along with it. Eovaldi has also allowed just three jacks all season in over 100 frames. If he throws strikes he has an outstanding chance of winning his ML debut because of his wicked stuff and it’s a chance worth taking because Saunders is capable of getting rocked. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).


N.Y. Yankees –1½ +106 over BOSTON

The total in this game is 9 and it’s not because of C.C. Sabathia. All Sabathia has done ever since he put on a Yanks uniform is go out there every fifth day and dominate about 95% of the time. Good pitching always gets the better of good hitting and when a good pitcher like Halladay or Sabathia gets hit, it’s because they’re having an off day. So, even if the Red Sox manage to score three or four, the Yanks may triple that against the dead arm of John Lackey. Lackey had won four straight before losing to the Indians in his last start but those four wins were the result of the Red Sox scoring 28 times and not because Lackey pitched well. Au contraire my friends, as Lackey was absolutely destroyed to the tune of 29 hits allowed in 17 innings against Tampa, Seattle and Kansas City. Now he’ll face a real offense that is seeing beach balls right now and if the Yanks don’t knock this guy out before the fifth it’ll be more surprising than Amy Winehouse being found dead in her London home. Lackey has a 1.55 WHIP, a 6.23 ERA and a BAA of .303 and .330 in August. John Lackey continues to get pounded every fifth day and you won’t see this guy anywhere near the pitching mound come playoff time. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +106 (Risking 2 units).


Calgary –3½ over HAMILTON

This has always been a tough place for the Tabbies to win at and after last week’s big emotional win at home against the hated Als, Hamilton could be in for a big letdown this week. After opening the year 2-0, the Ticats are now 3-2 but two of those wins were against B.C. and Saskatchewan, who are a combined 2-10. In their home win over the Als, the TiCats were outgained by 60 yards and again, it was at home and it was very intense, as the smack talk prefaced that game all week long. The Stamps have won three of four and that includes a win at the 5-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Calgary has not hit stride yet. They always seem to get off to slow starts and gradually turn up the heat as the season wears on. The Stamps are getting healthy and that means potentially dominating offensive and defensive lines. Hamilton was whacked in its first two starts of the year because of a lack of focus and a lot of smack talk. That’s not the CFL way but we saw that again after last week’s win over Montreal and the result this week is likely going to come at the price of all that other BS. Henry Burris is more than capable of a huge game and if he gets the time this week, something he has not yet had, he’ll move the chains all game long. With this game being sandwiched between its two biggest rivals (Montreal last week, Toronto next week), this one has trouble written all over it for the visitor. Play: Calgary –3½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

San Diego +106 over PITTSBURGH

The Pirates have now lost eight in a row and the bleeding isn’t likely to stop here. During its losing streak, Pittsburgh’s pitching has been torched and in fact, they surrendered five runs or more in all but one of those eight games. Overall, they’ve allowed 62 runs or an average of 7.75 RPG against over that eight-game stretch. The bullpen is running on fumes and the starters are trying to be too fine. While his 6-11 record doesn't show it, Paul Maholm has shaved nearly two full runs off his ERA since last year and is working his way back to relevance. What's behind this apparent revival? As it turns out, luck. Maholm's skills remain mediocre: Maholm's hit% is the lowest in four years and his strand rate is at the highest level. In other words, he's been fortunate. He's fanning marginally more hitters than he did a year ago, and walking the same number. Maholm's GB% is still good, but it's been declining slowly. Maholm may or may not end up with an ERA below 4.00, but if he does it'll be because he's lucky, not because he's morphed into a better pitcher at age 29. He remains an innings eater and bettors should think twice before being lured by the impressive but lucky ERA. Cory Luebke has a sub-3.25 ERA, and it's no fluke. He’s struck out 82 and walked just 22 in 81 IP and has a WHIP if 0.98. Luebke’s groundball rate is also trending the right way. There’s not a single warning sign about Luebke but there are plenty around Maholm. It’s also worth noting that the Padres are a decent hitting club versus lefties and they’re wrongfully being billed as the pooch today because of Maholm’s misleading numbers. Buy in. Play: San Diego +106 (Risking 2 units).


Los Angeles +125 over ARIZONA

No line on this game at the time of this writing but you can figure the D-Backs to be in the –135 price range. Joe Saunders continues to get bashed against righties and until that changes he’ll continue to struggle against right-handed lineups. The Dodgers will feature a heavily tilted right handed line-up to face Saunders because of his BAA of .273, OPB of .364, a .466 SLG% and an off the charts OPS of .810. Saunders is 2-4 at home with a 4.63 ERA and he’ll face this Dodger line-up for the second time in five days. He beat the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine on July 31 but allowed eight hits (2 ER) in seven innings and worked out of a few jams. Chase Field isn’t so friendly. The D-Backs have lost two in a row while the Dodgers have won three of four and this is the time of year that these spoilers become a lot more dangerous. They have nothing to play for other than making life miserable for contenders and that gives teams that are out of it great satisfaction. The Dodgers will recall Nate Eovaldi from Double-A to make his Major League debut. Eovaldi has seen his prospect status rise steadily throughout the year after a less than stellar '10 campaign. His control and command need attention, but he's been more dominant, as his fastball has increased a few ticks. He pitches off his 90-95 mph fastball early in the count and his secondary stuff more is also good, led by his curveball which could become a plus pitch with more time. His fastball exhibits plenty of late action down in the strike zone and he induces a large amount of groundballs. Because he's still raw, his changeup is not effective. An inconsistent release point and erratic mechanics have resulted in the command issues but his stuff is outstanding. He’s allowed just 76 hits in 103 innings and just for Chattanooga for a BAA of .203 and has 99 k’s to go along with it. Eovaldi has also allowed just three jacks all season in over 100 frames. If he throws strikes he has an outstanding chance of winning his ML debut because of his wicked stuff and it’s a chance worth taking because Saunders is capable of getting rocked. Play: Los Angeles +125 (Risking 2 units).


N.Y. Yankees –1½ +106 over BOSTON

The total in this game is 9 and it’s not because of C.C. Sabathia. All Sabathia has done ever since he put on a Yanks uniform is go out there every fifth day and dominate about 95% of the time. Good pitching always gets the better of good hitting and when a good pitcher like Halladay or Sabathia gets hit, it’s because they’re having an off day. So, even if the Red Sox manage to score three or four, the Yanks may triple that against the dead arm of John Lackey. Lackey had won four straight before losing to the Indians in his last start but those four wins were the result of the Red Sox scoring 28 times and not because Lackey pitched well. Au contraire my friends, as Lackey was absolutely destroyed to the tune of 29 hits allowed in 17 innings against Tampa, Seattle and Kansas City. Now he’ll face a real offense that is seeing beach balls right now and if the Yanks don’t knock this guy out before the fifth it’ll be more surprising than Amy Winehouse being found dead in her London home. Lackey has a 1.55 WHIP, a 6.23 ERA and a BAA of .303 and .330 in August. John Lackey continues to get pounded every fifth day and you won’t see this guy anywhere near the pitching mound come playoff time. Play: N.Y. Yankees –1½ +106 (Risking 2 units).


Calgary –3½ over HAMILTON

This has always been a tough place for the Tabbies to win at and after last week’s big emotional win at home against the hated Als, Hamilton could be in for a big letdown this week. After opening the year 2-0, the Ticats are now 3-2 but two of those wins were against B.C. and Saskatchewan, who are a combined 2-10. In their home win over the Als, the TiCats were outgained by 60 yards and again, it was at home and it was very intense, as the smack talk prefaced that game all week long. The Stamps have won three of four and that includes a win at the 5-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Calgary has not hit stride yet. They always seem to get off to slow starts and gradually turn up the heat as the season wears on. The Stamps are getting healthy and that means potentially dominating offensive and defensive lines. Hamilton was whacked in its first two starts of the year because of a lack of focus and a lot of smack talk. That’s not the CFL way but we saw that again after last week’s win over Montreal and the result this week is likely going to come at the price of all that other BS. Henry Burris is more than capable of a huge game and if he gets the time this week, something he has not yet had, he’ll move the chains all game long. With this game being sandwiched between its two biggest rivals (Montreal last week, Toronto next week), this one has trouble written all over it for the visitor. Play: Calgary –3½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[timbob]

SHARP MOVES

OVER - LA Dodgers / Arizona 9

UNDER - Detroit / Kansas City 8

974 - Kansas City +183 ML

[timbob]

RANDY BRUCE


MLB: *5 dimes each
Pirates -1.5 RL +175
Rays -1.5 RL +140