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MLB WRITE UP
TUESDAY, AUGUST 9
HOT PITCHERS
-- Home team won all five Willis starts (0-0, 3.65 in two home starts). Rogers is 2-0, 3.27 in his last couple starts.
-- Beachy is 2-0, 2.92 in his last couple starts.
-- Garza is 1-1, 2.41 in his last five starts.
-- Marcum is 3-0, 4.50 in his last four starts.
-- Lee is 2-0, 2.16 in his last couple starts.
-- Bumgarner is 2-1, 2.28 in his last three home starts. McDonald is 2-1, 3.42 in his last four starts overall.
-- Masterson is 4-1, 2.49 in his last seven starts.
-- Haren is 1-0, 1.08 in his last couple starts.
-- Cecil is 2-0, 1.64 in his last three home starts.
-- Shields is 2-0, 1.20 in his last couple home starts.
-- Ogando is 4-2, 2.90 in his last six starts.
COLD PITCHERS
-- Capuano is 1-3, 5.23 in his last five starts. LeBlanc is 0-2, 4.98 in his four starts this season.
-- Wang is 0-2, 12.00 in his first two '11 starts.
-- Hensley is 0-2, 6.91 in his last three starts.
-- Jackson is 1-1, 7.07 as a Cardinal; he allowed 10 runs in seven IP at Milwaukee last week.
-- Lyles is 0-3, 6.00 in six road starts. Marquis is 1-4, 7.82 in his last five starts.
-- Lilly is 1-2, 5.56 in his last four starts.
-- Fister is 1-3, 4.81 in his last five starts.
-- Burnett is 0-3, 6.25 in his last six starts.
-- Harden, who is Canadian, is 1-2, 4.97 in his last five starts.
-- Francis is 1-5, 4.78 in his last nine starts.
-- Reyes is 2-3, 9.70 in his last six starts. Floyd has a 6.35 RA in his last five outings.
-- Pineda is 1-2, 8.59 in his last four starts.
-- Bedard is 0-4, 6.05 in his last four starts. Liriano is 1-2, 8.16 in his last three starts.
TOTALS
-- Under is 8-3 in Capuano's last eleven starts.
-- Five of last six Cincinnati home games went over the total.
-- Over is 11-4 in Garza's last fifteen starts.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-1-2 in Marcum's road starts this season.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Lyles starts this season.
-- Six of last nine Dodger home games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-5-1 in last fifteen McDonald starts.
-- Under is 8-3 in Masterson's last eleven starts.
-- Under is 9-4 in Kansas City's last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 5-1 in Burnett's last six home starts.
-- Last five Reyes starts went over the total.
-- Under is 9-3 in Shields home starts this season.
-- Pineda's last three road starts went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Boston road games stayed under the total.
HOT TEAMS
-- San Diego won four of its last five games, scoring 46 runs.
-- Braves won four of their last five games.
-- Cubs won seven of their last eight games.
-- Brewers won 11 of their last 12 games. Cardinals won their last four games, allowing 11 runs.
-- Phillies won 16 of their last 20 games, are 9-1 since the Pence trade. .
-- Detroit won five of its last seven games.
-- Bronx won eight of its last ten games. Angels won three of their last four games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their last five home games.
-- White Sox won their last four games, scoring 25 runs.
-- Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox won 16 of their last 23 games.
COLD TEAMS
-- Marlins lost their last five games, scoring 16 runs.
-- Mets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Colorado lost 10 of its last 16 games. Reds lost four of their last five games, allowing 37 runs.
-- Washington lost six of its last nine road games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last ten games. Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five home games.
-- Giants lost nine of their last 11 games. Pittsburgh lost 12 of last 14.
-- Indians lost 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Orioles lost 10 of their last 13 games.
-- Oakland lost 12 of its last 16 road games.
-- Tampa Bay is 10-13 in its last 23 games. Royals lost three of their last four games.
-- Seattle is 2-11 on the road since the All-Star break.
-- Minnesota lost nine of its last eleven games.
UMPIRES
-- SD-NY-- Underdogs are 5-4 in last nine BWelke games, with last three staying under the total.
-- Col-Cin-- Road team won last three Barksdale games.
-- Mil-Fla-- 10 of last 15 Knight games went over the total.
-- Hst-Az-- Home team is 11-2 in last 13 Bucknor games, with five of last six staying under the total.
-- Phil-LA-- Four of last five Barry games went over the total.
-- Pitt-SF-- Underdogs are 7-3 in last ten ONora games; over is 4-1-1 in his last six games behind the dish.
-- Chi-Balt-- Four of last five Hallion games went over the total.
-- KC-TB-- Four of last five Kulpa games went over the total.
-- Sea-Tex-- Last three Fairchild games went over the total.
-- Bos-Min-- Over is 16-6-2 in McClelland games this season.Comment
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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME
MLB Baseball Tuesday
Play Texas (-185) over Seattle (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST
Seattle has lost 20 of the last 26 games coming off six or more division games and they have also lost 59 of the last 77 games as a road underdog of +150 or higher. Michael Pineda is 0-2 vs. Texas over his career with an ERA of 4.85 and he has an ERA of 6.89 over his last three overall starts.
Play Tampa Bay (-190) over Kansas City (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Kansas City has lost 41 of the last 58 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have also lost 8 of the last 11 road games as an underdog of +175 to +200. Jeff Francis has lost 9 of the last 11 road games as an underdog of +100 or higher and he is 2-6 in road games this season with an ERA of 5.34.
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Play Arizona (-175) over Houston (Bonus)
Starts at 9:40 PM ESTComment
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Sports Wagers
Colorado +130 over CINCINNATI Pinnacle
Is there anything to like about the Reds as the chalk these days? Here’s a team that was supposed to at least challenge for a playoff spot and now they’re 10 games out after losing the opener 10-7. The Reds have dropped four of their last five games with only win over that stretch coming against Randy Wells. They’re coming off back-to-back series losses against the Astros and Cubs. Dontrelle Willis was written off for dead but instead he’s come back from the dead to post a 3.41 ERA in five starts. It’s a good story but the dream is about to turn into a nightmare. Willis has a BAA of .283 after facing Pittsburgh, Atlanta, San Fran and Houston, arguably the four worst offenses in the NL and maybe the entire league. His 1.41 WHIP is below average and he’s been helped immensely by a 80% strand rate. That’s a strand rate that isn’t surprising against that aforementioned quartet but is unsustainable against good hitting teams in any hitter’s park. Troy Tulowitzki (.409/.465/.682) and Chris Iannetta (.373/.476/.569) are two of the league's top hitters since the All-Star Break. Tulowitzki's 1.147 OPS is tops in the league since the break, among batters with at least 50 plate appearances. Tulowitzki, Ty Wigginton and Iannetta are all in the top 11 in the NL in OPS against lefties. Willis’s due bucket for an implosion is overflowing and this looks like the day. Esmil Rogers, who recently returned from the disabled list, has not been able to recapture the skills he showed in 2010, which led to him being tabbed a stealth preseason sleeper despite ugly surface stats. For what it's worth, Rogers pitched well (5 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4/1 K/BB) after Jimenez made his one-inning cameo in the Rockies' July 30 game and he followed that up with a solid start against the Nats in which he went 5.2 innings (at Coors) and allowed just one run. Still, this one is all about playing against the Reds and Willis more than it is about wagering on Rogers. This is true value here. Play: Colorado +130 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +166 over ARIZONA Pinnacle
Baseball’s a funny game. The D-Backs lone win over their last five games came against Clayton Kershaw. Last night as a big favorite, Daniel Hudson got whacked early and the Astros took a 5-0 lead before the D-Backs had their first AB. With four losses in five games and with Jason Marquis going, the D-Backs are a huge risk at this price and it’s for that reason we’re backing the pooch. The Astros are fielding a lot of Corpus Christi and Oklahoma City players as they plan for 2012 and they’re responding. These young guys with a ton of enthusiasm are playing well, they’re jacked right up and they’re playing to win. They’ve scored five runs or more in three of their past five games and now they’re also getting some confidence. Jason Marquis should never be this big a price over anyone, period. The San Francisco Giants wiped out Marquis in his Diamondback debut to the tune of 10 hits and eight runs in four frames. Marquis had some decent surface stats pitching for the Nationals before the trade to Arizona but let’s not forget that Marquis posted a 6.60 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP last season and this is no longer Nationals Park. Chase Field has inflated runs scored by 11% this year, whereas Nationals Park has deflated run scoring at a rate of 6%. Marquis remains a borderline player with this deal, although his numbers are likely to shift to the other side of the border by pitching in Arizona instead of Washington. Jordan Lyles is 1-6 but his base skills are really good and so is his xERA of 3.81. More on that another time but what we know for sure is that Marquis is overvalued and the Astros chances of winning again are really good too. Big overlay. Play: Houston +166 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +104 over N.Y. YANKEES Pinnacle
Only playing for New York or Boston would A.J. Burnett ever be favored over Dan Haren. The Yanks may win this game, as they’re capable of winning any game but nobody can argue that we’re going with the best of it by backing Haren and his outstanding skills against Burnett and his average and diminishing skills. Haren is a true ace: a proven and consistent high-skilled performer that has a 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 2.81 ERA. In 170 IP, Haren has walked 24 batters while whiffing 137. Haren has a BAA of .225 and 20 of his 24 starts have been pure quality. The guy can pitch. A.J. Burnett has a losing record pitching for a team that is 25 games above .500. That’s hard to do. He has a below average 4.54 ERA and over his last three starts he’s posted an ERA of 7.00. Burnett has a decent strikeout rate but he’s also walking more batters than ever before. Burnett could be feeling the effects of 12 years and close to 2000 career innings at this point of the season and at the age of 34 and after coming off a complete disaster (4.1 IP, 13H, 7ER) against the South Side, his multi-year trend of worsening skills continues to be discouraging. Play: L.A. Angels +104 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Sports Wagers
Colorado +130 over CINCINNATI Pinnacle
Is there anything to like about the Reds as the chalk these days? Here’s a team that was supposed to at least challenge for a playoff spot and now they’re 10 games out after losing the opener 10-7. The Reds have dropped four of their last five games with only win over that stretch coming against Randy Wells. They’re coming off back-to-back series losses against the Astros and Cubs. Dontrelle Willis was written off for dead but instead he’s come back from the dead to post a 3.41 ERA in five starts. It’s a good story but the dream is about to turn into a nightmare. Willis has a BAA of .283 after facing Pittsburgh, Atlanta, San Fran and Houston, arguably the four worst offenses in the NL and maybe the entire league. His 1.41 WHIP is below average and he’s been helped immensely by a 80% strand rate. That’s a strand rate that isn’t surprising against that aforementioned quartet but is unsustainable against good hitting teams in any hitter’s park. Troy Tulowitzki (.409/.465/.682) and Chris Iannetta (.373/.476/.569) are two of the league's top hitters since the All-Star Break. Tulowitzki's 1.147 OPS is tops in the league since the break, among batters with at least 50 plate appearances. Tulowitzki, Ty Wigginton and Iannetta are all in the top 11 in the NL in OPS against lefties. Willis’s due bucket for an implosion is overflowing and this looks like the day. Esmil Rogers, who recently returned from the disabled list, has not been able to recapture the skills he showed in 2010, which led to him being tabbed a stealth preseason sleeper despite ugly surface stats. For what it's worth, Rogers pitched well (5 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4/1 K/BB) after Jimenez made his one-inning cameo in the Rockies' July 30 game and he followed that up with a solid start against the Nats in which he went 5.2 innings (at Coors) and allowed just one run. Still, this one is all about playing against the Reds and Willis more than it is about wagering on Rogers. This is true value here. Play: Colorado +130 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +166 over ARIZONA Pinnacle
Baseball’s a funny game. The D-Backs lone win over their last five games came against Clayton Kershaw. Last night as a big favorite, Daniel Hudson got whacked early and the Astros took a 5-0 lead before the D-Backs had their first AB. With four losses in five games and with Jason Marquis going, the D-Backs are a huge risk at this price and it’s for that reason we’re backing the pooch. The Astros are fielding a lot of Corpus Christi and Oklahoma City players as they plan for 2012 and they’re responding. These young guys with a ton of enthusiasm are playing well, they’re jacked right up and they’re playing to win. They’ve scored five runs or more in three of their past five games and now they’re also getting some confidence. Jason Marquis should never be this big a price over anyone, period. The San Francisco Giants wiped out Marquis in his Diamondback debut to the tune of 10 hits and eight runs in four frames. Marquis had some decent surface stats pitching for the Nationals before the trade to Arizona but let’s not forget that Marquis posted a 6.60 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP last season and this is no longer Nationals Park. Chase Field has inflated runs scored by 11% this year, whereas Nationals Park has deflated run scoring at a rate of 6%. Marquis remains a borderline player with this deal, although his numbers are likely to shift to the other side of the border by pitching in Arizona instead of Washington. Jordan Lyles is 1-6 but his base skills are really good and so is his xERA of 3.81. More on that another time but what we know for sure is that Marquis is overvalued and the Astros chances of winning again are really good too. Big overlay. Play: Houston +166 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +104 over N.Y. YANKEES Pinnacle
Only playing for New York or Boston would A.J. Burnett ever be favored over Dan Haren. The Yanks may win this game, as they’re capable of winning any game but nobody can argue that we’re going with the best of it by backing Haren and his outstanding skills against Burnett and his average and diminishing skills. Haren is a true ace: a proven and consistent high-skilled performer that has a 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 2.81 ERA. In 170 IP, Haren has walked 24 batters while whiffing 137. Haren has a BAA of .225 and 20 of his 24 starts have been pure quality. The guy can pitch. A.J. Burnett has a losing record pitching for a team that is 25 games above .500. That’s hard to do. He has a below average 4.54 ERA and over his last three starts he’s posted an ERA of 7.00. Burnett has a decent strikeout rate but he’s also walking more batters than ever before. Burnett could be feeling the effects of 12 years and close to 2000 career innings at this point of the season and at the age of 34 and after coming off a complete disaster (4.1 IP, 13H, 7ER) against the South Side, his multi-year trend of worsening skills continues to be discouraging. Play: L.A. Angels +104 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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