8-10-11

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (MLB)
MLB 25-17 last 42 picks +$1550
1 OF 5
Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (3:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -125 (moneyline)

It is one thing to be playing on the best team in baseball on the road, but a whole other level when you are playing the best team in baseball on the road when they are scorching hot. The Phillies win over LA last night pushes them 36 games over .500 at 76-40. They are now 17-4 over their last 21 games and have also won 11 of their last 12. They have outscored their opponents by a 104-57 count in the last 21 games, winning by an average margin of 2.3 runs a contest. Since June 26th they have lost only three games to a team with a losing record and are 12-2 in their last 14 started by Worley. The Dodgers are pleading no contest as a dog of +110 to +150 at 15-37 in their last 52. Take Philly in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

OUTLAW SPORTS ADVISORS

2* Philadelphia Phillies ML -125

[Mr. IWS]

SHARP MOVES

UNDER - Detroit / Cleveland 8.5

OVER - Seattle / Texas 9

UNDER - Chicago White Sox / Baltimore 9

OVER - #275/#276 Buffalo / Chicago 33.5

[Mr. IWS]

Winning Points

Ultra Sharp

MLB TOTALS -- WEDNESDAY

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 10

7:10 pm
**PREFERRED
OVER 9.5
Colorado at Cincinnati
Millwood vs. Leake
The Rockies used four relievers last night, six relievers on Monday, and now they are sending out Kevin Millwood in his first MLB start of the season after he was released by the Red Sox Triple-A team. There once was a man from Pawtucket…Anyway, Millwood is known for being an innings-eater, but he is also known for being like a bad heavyweight fighter – staying upright in the ring while absorbing an ugly beating. His ERA for the Orioles last season was 5.12. In four career starts at Great American Ball Park, his ERA is 6.33.

9:40 pm
**PREFERRED
UNDER the Total
Houston at Arizona
Sosa vs. Collmenter
Josh Collmenter has been hammered in his last two starts, both Over winners for us, and both against the Dodgers, who had hit him hard with unlucky results in the first of his three exposures against them this season. Off these last two bad (good for us) outings in which he was drilled more than sheetrock in a McMansion, he gets to come home and face the NL’s worst-hitting team with a depleted lineup, Astros guys who only have a combined 12 at-bats against him in the majors. Collmenter’s weird delivery takes time to figure out, so he should get back on the track that had his WHIP at about 1.00 before the Dodgers were laying in wait for him. Arizona’s bullpen has made a major turnaround from last season but you already knew that. Meanwhile, Henry Sosa of the Astros makes his major league debut, so Arizona’s hitters have a slight mystery to solve in a youngster who had a 2.75 ERA in nine Double-A starts this season, then made one Triple-A start of 7 shutout innings, allowing only 5 hits.


Pick of the day
WASHINGTON (Detwiler) +110 over CHICAGO CUBS (R.Lopez)



The Nationals scored a victory for Chien-Ming Wang in last night's game, and they are well positioned
for another win here. Ross Detwiler (3.48 ERA in two starts) matches up well against this Chicago
team that is only 6-14 vs. lefthanders in night games (-$780). Washington has already taken
4 of 5 in head to head play (+$345) and they've turned a nice profit in night games vs. righties
(+$670). Rodrigio Lopez has been mediocre in seven starts (5.55 ERA) so we'll grab the short
underdog rice on the visitor here.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. METS –1½ +161 over San Diego

This one is risky for sure because we’re playing a NL team at home in a pitcher’s park laying 1½-runs. However, the total is eight, which suggests runs will be scored and the reward is worth the risk. Furthermore, Aaron Harang’s 10-3 record and 3.91 ERA is an illusion that even Chris Angel would have a hard time making work. Those innings are beginning to add up for the 33-year-old Harang and you can double that for a guy that pitched the past eight years in Cincinnati. Those Great American Ballpark innings are not like normal innings and will wear you completely out over time. Harang pitched just 111 innings last season and this year he’s already up to 115. Over his last four starts covering 22 frames, Harang has been tagged for 34 hits and 17 earned runs. Against the struggling Pirates in his last start, he gave up 13 hits in five innings. Three of those aforementioned four starts were on the road, where Harang is a misleading 5-0. He’s 5-0 with a 4.63 ERA and .313 BAA and that my friends just does not align correctly. The guy should be 0-5, not 5-0 away from Petco. Harang is whiffing fewer batters over the past month, he’s walking more and his fly-ball rate continues to increase. These are all signs that Harang is running on fumes. The Padres have never faced R.A. Dickey and one has to wonder if they’ve ever faced a knuckleballer. Dickey is an unjust 5-10 overall and an even more unjust 1-7 at Citi Field. Fact is, his 3.70 ERA matches up with his 3.72 xERA. Dickey is an elite groundball pitcher with 100 K’s and just 41 walks in 148 innings. Dickey deserves better and if all things are equal, he’ll get a long overdue win at home while Harang will get a long overdue loss and he’ll likely get lit up in the process. Aaron Harang’s numbers are not to be believed. Play: N.Y. Mets –1½ +161 (Risking 2 units).


Washington +104 over CHICAGO

This equation is a rather simple one that says when Rodrigo Lopez is favored to bet the pooch. Lopez has recorded an ERA under 5 just once in the past six years. Lopez has given up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in his last nine innings of work and his career has about seven weeks left in it if he makes it to the end of the season and that’s a big if. Lopez has five walks and two strikeouts over his last two starts. In other words, he’s not missing many bats and he’s nothing more than a fill-in for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Ross Detwiler probably isn’t capable of pitching deep into games right now but he’s a far better option taking back a tag than his counterpart laying one. Detwiler is coming off his first start of the year in Colorado of all places and all he did was go five full and allow five hits and two earned runs. He only struck out one while walking three but the good news is that he owns an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 54%/19%/26%. That profile is just in 20 IP this season but it’s not far off from his career profile that spans 126 innings. Detwiler has shown outstanding skills in the minors that include a good strikeout rate and elite groundball rate. He’s talented but he’s also been given numerous chances at this level and has not been able to stick. Is time running out for him? Perhaps it is and perhaps he knows he has to dig down deeper than ever. Regardless of what he thinks or knows, he’s still a much better play than laying a small tag with Lopez. Play: Washington +104 (Risking 2 units).


Oakland –106 over TORONTO

The A’s are playing good ball right now and have been since the break. Over its past 20 games, Oakland is batting .291 and they’ve scored 120 runs. Only the Yanks have scored more runs that the A’s since the all-star break. So, with an offense going as good as anyone right now and with their ace going, Gio Gonzalez, the A’s are a small tag against the Jays and a rookie pitcher and that’s what is known as an underlay. Gonzalez is an ace in every sense. He has an outstanding strikeout rate of 138 k’s in 136 IP. He has a strong groundball bias profile that’s just getting stronger and has gone from 52% on the year up to 56% over the past month. His ERA over the past month is 6.17 and that’s because of a low strand rate of 57%. That’s pure bad luck and nothing more, as his xERA over the past month is 2.98. Gonzalez has dominating stuff that will be on display against a Jays team that is hitting .231 since the break and that now features at least three rookies in the lineup. Jays are gearing up for next year and will give Henderson Alvarez a close look right now. Henderson makes his Major League debut here. He’s a short and athletic pitcher that owns a dazzling display of pitches but his stuff doesn't miss bats. He generally focuses on efficiency and pitching to contact with his solid 87-95 mph fastball that features outstanding late movement. He effectively repeats his arm speed and slot on a potential above average changeup, though his curveball lacks break. Alvarez consistently buries pitches low in the strike zone and keeps walks to a minimum. He sometimes overthrows his fastball, which curtails its movement and leaves him hittable. Due to his natural stuff, he has nice upside, but he likely won't be a dominant because of a low strikeout rate. He has a career 4.03 ERA in the minors and he’s nowhere near the same class as Gonzalez. This is really a strong play, as the A’s have a big edge on the mound, they have an edge at the plate and the Jays home record is exactly one game better than their road record. Play: Oakland –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. METS –1½ +161 over San Diego

This one is risky for sure because we’re playing a NL team at home in a pitcher’s park laying 1½-runs. However, the total is eight, which suggests runs will be scored and the reward is worth the risk. Furthermore, Aaron Harang’s 10-3 record and 3.91 ERA is an illusion that even Chris Angel would have a hard time making work. Those innings are beginning to add up for the 33-year-old Harang and you can double that for a guy that pitched the past eight years in Cincinnati. Those Great American Ballpark innings are not like normal innings and will wear you completely out over time. Harang pitched just 111 innings last season and this year he’s already up to 115. Over his last four starts covering 22 frames, Harang has been tagged for 34 hits and 17 earned runs. Against the struggling Pirates in his last start, he gave up 13 hits in five innings. Three of those aforementioned four starts were on the road, where Harang is a misleading 5-0. He’s 5-0 with a 4.63 ERA and .313 BAA and that my friends just does not align correctly. The guy should be 0-5, not 5-0 away from Petco. Harang is whiffing fewer batters over the past month, he’s walking more and his fly-ball rate continues to increase. These are all signs that Harang is running on fumes. The Padres have never faced R.A. Dickey and one has to wonder if they’ve ever faced a knuckleballer. Dickey is an unjust 5-10 overall and an even more unjust 1-7 at Citi Field. Fact is, his 3.70 ERA matches up with his 3.72 xERA. Dickey is an elite groundball pitcher with 100 K’s and just 41 walks in 148 innings. Dickey deserves better and if all things are equal, he’ll get a long overdue win at home while Harang will get a long overdue loss and he’ll likely get lit up in the process. Aaron Harang’s numbers are not to be believed. Play: N.Y. Mets –1½ +161 (Risking 2 units).


Washington +104 over CHICAGO

This equation is a rather simple one that says when Rodrigo Lopez is favored to bet the pooch. Lopez has recorded an ERA under 5 just once in the past six years. Lopez has given up 15 hits and 12 earned runs in his last nine innings of work and his career has about seven weeks left in it if he makes it to the end of the season and that’s a big if. Lopez has five walks and two strikeouts over his last two starts. In other words, he’s not missing many bats and he’s nothing more than a fill-in for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Ross Detwiler probably isn’t capable of pitching deep into games right now but he’s a far better option taking back a tag than his counterpart laying one. Detwiler is coming off his first start of the year in Colorado of all places and all he did was go five full and allow five hits and two earned runs. He only struck out one while walking three but the good news is that he owns an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 54%/19%/26%. That profile is just in 20 IP this season but it’s not far off from his career profile that spans 126 innings. Detwiler has shown outstanding skills in the minors that include a good strikeout rate and elite groundball rate. He’s talented but he’s also been given numerous chances at this level and has not been able to stick. Is time running out for him? Perhaps it is and perhaps he knows he has to dig down deeper than ever. Regardless of what he thinks or knows, he’s still a much better play than laying a small tag with Lopez. Play: Washington +104 (Risking 2 units).


Oakland –106 over TORONTO

The A’s are playing good ball right now and have been since the break. Over its past 20 games, Oakland is batting .291 and they’ve scored 120 runs. Only the Yanks have scored more runs that the A’s since the all-star break. So, with an offense going as good as anyone right now and with their ace going, Gio Gonzalez, the A’s are a small tag against the Jays and a rookie pitcher and that’s what is known as an underlay. Gonzalez is an ace in every sense. He has an outstanding strikeout rate of 138 k’s in 136 IP. He has a strong groundball bias profile that’s just getting stronger and has gone from 52% on the year up to 56% over the past month. His ERA over the past month is 6.17 and that’s because of a low strand rate of 57%. That’s pure bad luck and nothing more, as his xERA over the past month is 2.98. Gonzalez has dominating stuff that will be on display against a Jays team that is hitting .231 since the break and that now features at least three rookies in the lineup. Jays are gearing up for next year and will give Henderson Alvarez a close look right now. Henderson makes his Major League debut here. He’s a short and athletic pitcher that owns a dazzling display of pitches but his stuff doesn't miss bats. He generally focuses on efficiency and pitching to contact with his solid 87-95 mph fastball that features outstanding late movement. He effectively repeats his arm speed and slot on a potential above average changeup, though his curveball lacks break. Alvarez consistently buries pitches low in the strike zone and keeps walks to a minimum. He sometimes overthrows his fastball, which curtails its movement and leaves him hittable. Due to his natural stuff, he has nice upside, but he likely won't be a dominant because of a low strikeout rate. He has a career 4.03 ERA in the minors and he’s nowhere near the same class as Gonzalez. This is really a strong play, as the A’s have a big edge on the mound, they have an edge at the plate and the Jays home record is exactly one game better than their road record. Play: Oakland –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Vic Monte

2000* MAX OUT SPECIAL - BOSTON RED SOX -190

[Mr. IWS]

Reno Sports Advisors

4* St. Louis Cardinals ML -125

[Mr. IWS]

JACK HOWARD

MLB:
Pittsburgh/San Francisco Over 7.5(+100) 5 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

Chris jordan

200♦ matinee moneymaker

philadelphia phillies ml-125

[Mr. IWS]

Gambling Geeks

Wednesday, August 10th:

BIG: White Sox -130 ov Baltimore, 7:05pmET
MED: UNDER 8.5 Boston/Minnesota, 8:05pmET

[Mr. IWS]

LT Profits

Phillies/Dodgers OVER 7 -115

[Mr. IWS]

ROCKDEMANSPORTS

Atlanta Braves ML

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions
Kevin
3* Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays - RAYS TO WIN (-134)

Today we have Felipe Paulino (1-8) vs Wade Davis (8-7) on the mound for their respective teams. The Rays have taken the first two games of this 4 games series, and would love nothing more than a win here tonight and tomorrow before they head out to play the Yankees and Red Sox. Although the Rays are 8.5 games back in the AL East, a 4 game sweep against the Royals would give them a chance to head into the weekend with plans of making things very interesting a top their division. Note that the Royals are just 24-50 in their last 74 games as an underdog, 26-62 in their last 88 road games, and 1-4 in their last 5 games overall. The Royals are also 0-4 in Paulino's last 4 starts, and 1-4 in his last 5 starts as an underdog. Tampa Bay is 5-2 in their last 7 overall, 6-2 in their last 8 home games vs a team with a losing record, and 38-17 in their last 55 overall vs a team with a losing record. Also note that the Rays are 6-2 in Davis' last 8 starts, 10-2 in his last 12 starts following a quality start in his previous outing, and 11-4 in his last 15 starts vs American League Central opponents. Over their last 19 meetings in Tampa Bay the Royals are just 4-15, and have only scored more than 4 runs once in that span. Note that the Royals are just 16-37 in their last 53 meetings in Tampa Bay, and 2-5 in their last 7 meetings overall. I'm throwing it down on the Rays today with confidence.

[Mr. IWS]

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

2* Philadelphia/ LA Dodgers UNDER 7

The Phillies offense has been better of late, but they are still averaging just 4.5 rpg over their last 10 games, while they have allowed just 2.4 rpg over that same stretch. The Dodgers come in scoring 3.3 rpg and allowing 3.5 rpg in their last 10 games. Vance Worley has been amazing for the Phils as he brings a 2.35 ERA overall and a 2.52 ERA on the road into this contest. The Phills do give him good run support at 5.54 rpg overall and 6 rpg on the road, but they should have problems today vs Billingsley. Chad comes in with a 3.52 ERA in his last 7 games, while at home his ERA is a solid 2.88. In his home starts this year the Under is 6-3 and just 5.36 rpg have been scored. Vance hasn't faced LA but Chad has and he has a 3.19 ERA in his last 5 regular season starts vs them. Now for some trends. The Under is 13-2 when the Dodgers face an opponent that allowed 2 runs or less in their last game, while the Under is 9-3 in the Phils last 12 road games. We also have a low scoring Ump behind the plate in this one as in Lazaro Diaz' 23 games behind the plate this year the Under is 8-14-1 and there has been just 6.78 rpg being scored. I see another low scoring game in LA Today.