8-11-11

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LADY LUCK

Thursday's Best WNBA Bets

San Antonio Silver Stars at Connecticut Sun (-6, 151)

All of a sudden, the San Antonio Silver Stars are in desperation mode.

After tearing up the league early this season, the Silver Stars have dropped four of their last five straight up, covering only twice during the slide.

On Tuesday, it got downright ugly. San Antonio was outscored 20-5 in the second quarter against Indiana en route to an 81-68 loss as a 6.5-point underdog.

"We didn't come out aggressive," Sophia Young, who had 13 points but hit just three of 10 on free throws, told reporters. "You can't expect to win when you don't come out hard. We have to get ready for Connecticut ... We have to get one of the (next) two on the road."

That’s going to be difficult unless the team’s offense comes around. The Silver Stars are averaging fewer than 72 points per game since starting the season 7-1, when they put up more than 90 points per contest.

The Sun have covered in five straight and should keep that run going against San Antonio.

PICK: Connecticut


Atlanta Dream at Phoenix Mercury (-6, 186)

The Dream have been on a nice run after opening the season with a bunch of injuries. They have won seven of their last nine games to pull within a game of .500 but Thursday’s date with the Mercury will be a major test.

Phoenix was mired in a rotten stretch that saw the club go 1-5 both straight up and against the spread before dropping the surging Minnesota Ly*x 85-80. Diana Taurasi stepped up with 26 points and had a key steal in the final minute to secure the victory.

"We usually like to fight (defensively)," Taurasi told reporters. "We have to get that fighting spirit back and I think tonight we gained that back."

That’s bad news for Atlanta visiting a rejuvenated Mercury club.

PICK: Phoenix

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WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA: Silver Stars - Sun Preview
By Associated Press


San Antonio Silver Stars at Connecticut Sun (-6, 151)

The Connecticut Sun weren't sharp at the offensive end their last time out, but they feel they're coming off a positive performance after putting together their best defensive game of the year.

Looking to follow up that dominant effort on defense, the Sun try to improve the WNBA's best home record in a matchup with the slumping San Antonio Silver Stars on Thursday night.

Connecticut (14-7) followed up an impressive three-game western road trip - its only loss came by two against Seattle on Friday - with a 69-58 victory over Chicago on Tuesday. The Sun limited the Sky to 27.5 percent from the field, allowing them to win despite making 36.2 percent of their shots.

"Can we call it a defensive clinic, not an offensive meltdown?" said coach Mike Thibault, whose team outscored Chicago 22-7 in the second quarter. "This was a game we had to grind out somehow. We didn't have our legs to shoot the ball. We had to win with defense."

Connecticut, which allowed its lowest point total of the season, is giving up 73.5 points per game at home and 80.2 on the road.

The win was the Sun's eighth in 10 games and improved them to 9-1 at home in the opener of a four-game stretch at Mohegan Sun Arena. They are one game behind first-place Indiana in the Eastern Conference.

Despite the poor performance at the offensive end, Connecticut continued to get steady production from center Tina Charles, who recorded her WNBA record-tying seventh straight double-double. Charles, who had 16 points and 11 rebounds, can break the mark set by Storm star Lauren Jackson in 2003.

"I'm honored to be mentioned with her,'' said Charles, who has grabbed 13 or more boards three times during the streak.

She should have an even better chance to set the record with Silver Stars rookie forward Danielle Adams sidelined. The 6-foot-1 Adams, out four to six weeks with a mid-foot sprain, is averaging 14.3 points and 4.6 rebounds.

Her absence hasn't helped the Silver Stars (12-9), losers or four of five. San Antonio is coming off an 81-68 defeat at Indiana on Tuesday, getting outscored 20-5 in the second quarter.

"We didn't come out aggressive," said forward Sophia Young, who had 13 points but went 3 of 10 on free throws. "You can't expect to win when you don't come out hard. We have to get ready for Connecticut ... We have to get one of the (next) two on the road."

San Antonio is finishing up a stretch of four of five away from home. They've lost all three of the road contests and have fallen four games behind West-leading Minnesota.

The Silver Stars have been held to fewer than 70 points in their last four losses. They averaged 92.1 points during their 7-1 start but have scored 71.8 per game since.

San Antonio has lost in its last two visits to Connecticut, averaging 63.0 points.

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HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (-135, 8)

Johnny Cueto had everything the Reds were looking for when he broke into the league – a great delivery, excellent movement on his pitches, and some swagger on the hill.

His problem was always consistency. He often spoiled solid outings with one bad inning.

This season Cueto’s shown maturity, keeping himself out of those big innings while posting a sparkling 2.06 ERA and three complete games to date. However, he had a rough outing in his last trip to the hill, getting drilled for seven hits and five earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in a blowout loss to the Cubs.

Cueto also hit a couple of batters and walked three others.

"He wasn't sharp early in the count," Reds manager Dusty Baker told reporters. "He was spinning off. We were hoping he'd get sharp. We didn't make a couple of defensive plays.”

In all, it was one of those games you just throw out the window. We’re betting Cueto will bounce back strong.

PICK: Reds


San Diego Padres at New York Mets (-120, 7.5)

With two lefties sharing the hill, many bettors begin their handicapping by taking a long look at the under. Thursday’s matchup between the Padres and Mets could be a major exception.

Despite and offense that’s producing only 3.72 runs per game (27th in MLB) and a .237 team batting average, the Padres are hammering the over.

They had the over on a 9-1-1 run heading into Wednesday’s action, moving the team’s season over/under record to 60-52-5. On Thursday they’ll start Cory Luebke, who has seen each of his last three outings play over as well.

Meanwhile, the Mets counter with Jon Niese who has been very good to over bettors as well. He has seen 14 of his last 19 home starts and 21 of his last 30 trips to the hill overall play above the posted total.

PICK: Over

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Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (16-5, 2.30 ERA)

Verlander pulled into a tie with CC Sabathia for the MLB win lead at 16 by picking up his fourth straight victory the last time he took the ball, downing the Royals 4-3.

"He was drained," Leyland said of Verlander after that win. "He was spent, I could see that. But I thought he pitched great.”

Verlander has thrown at least seven innings in each of those wins while striking out at least seven batters. The big righty sits just inside the top 20 in MLB’s money starters, earning just over six units for his supporters.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (13-7, 3.56)

Gallardo has allowed just four runs over his last four outings and has given up just eight hits during his last 15 innings on the mound.

Gallardo cruised past Houston as a -200 favorite in his last start, yielding a single run over eight innings while striking out six and walking one.


SLUMPING

Tyler Chatwood, Los Angeles Angels (6-8, 4.10 ERA)

Chatwood has just one win on his resume since Jun 24 and his last two outings weren’t pretty. He allowed 11 runs over 11 2/3 innings combined over those two starts.

Still, he has been pretty solid most of the time. The Angeles have failed to score a run while the rookie has been in the game in eight of his starts this season.

“Once we give him a little bit more support, he'll feel more comfortable on the mound,” teammate Bobby Abreu told reporters of Chatwood. “The more times he goes out there the better he'll be and his command is going to help him stay in the game longer."

Brett Myers, Houston Astros (3-12, 4.76 ERA)

These are tough days to be a starting pitcher for the Houston Astros. Myers leads the club with 14 quality starts, but is mired in a career-high six-game losing skid.

Myers allowed five earned runs on 11 hits over six innings of work during a 7-5 loss to Milwaukee his last time out.

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Cueto And Cincinnati Reds Tangle With Colorado Rockies
By: Willie Bee


Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds (-135, 8)

Thursday's MLB betting slate is heavy with getaway games, including the finale of a 4-game set in Cincinnati between the Reds and Colorado Rockies. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is 9:35 a.m. (PT).

Colorado took the first two games of the series, each time as the MLB odds underdog. The Rockies used a 14-hit, 4-HR barrage to win Monday's opener, 10-7, then nipped Cincinnati on Tuesday by a 3-2 count.

Beating the Reds has become the norm for Colorado who was 23-5 in the series heading into Wednesday's contest which was still pending. The Rockies have brought home the bacon in 11 of the last 14 played at Great American Ball Park.

Thursday's pitching matchup has the potential to be a good one with Jhoulys Chacin (11-12, 3.45) taking on Johnny Cueto (10-7, 2.06). Early baseball betting lines made Cincinnati a favorite in the 135-140 range with Thursday's total an even eight runs.

Chacin didn't have good stuff but still picked up the win in his most recent start to snap a 7-start span without a win for him or the Rockies. His last road win was June 21 in Cleveland with Colorado 0-4 in Chacin's latest four starts away from Coors Field.

The Rockies are 5-5 overall in his 10 road starts this campaign, Chacin posting a 3.71 ERA in those outings.

Cueto is coming off his worst effort of the season, failing to get past the fourth in Chicago last Saturday as a 130 MLB betting favorite. This will be his third career start vs. the Rockies, the last two in Denver and both losses for the Reds.

Cincinnati has failed to take advantage of Cueto's pitching at Great American Ball Park this season. The Reds are just 4-3 in his seven home starts despite some eye-popping stats like a 1.51 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and holding batters to a .176 average.

Both clubs have a few new injuries that play into this matchup. The Rockies could be without two key members of their bullpen as setup man Matt Lindstrom (sore arm) is expected to be placed on the disabled list while closer Huston Street (lat muscle) is experiencing some soreness.

Cincinnati recently sent outfielder Chris Heisey (oblique) to the DL and has veteran infielder Miguel Cairo also battling an oblique strain.

Adrian Johnson has the plate for Thursday's affair and enters with a 15-11 lean to the 'over' in his previous 2011 assignments. Home favorites are 10-8 on the year.

Weather shouldn't be a factor with clear skies and a very light NNE breeze. The afternoon high is expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s.

Cincinnati's homestand continues this weekend with the Padres coming to town. The Rockies move on from here to St. Louis to open a 3-game series Friday against the Cardinals.

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BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best NFL Bet

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 35.5)

Kickoff your NFL preseason betting action in style on Thursday night from Qualcomm Stadium, where the San Diego Chargers will duke it out with the Seattle Seahawks!

Things are going to look a lot different this year for the Seahawks than they did a season ago. Most importantly, QB Matt Hasselbeck walked via free agency, which really left Head Coach Pete Carroll a gaping hole at the quarterback position. The defending NFC West champs did pick up QB Tarvaris Jackson, which should help out quite a bit, but it has already been proven that he just doesn’t have the goods to lead the Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps playing in an easier division will help. After a short training camp for Jackson, we wouldn’t be surprised if he takes just a few reps in the first exhibition game of the year, while veteran backup, QB Charlie Whitehurst takes the majority of the snaps. Do look for QB Josh Portis to take some snaps as well late in the game. This will also be the Seattle debut for WR Sidney Rice, who is going to hope to bring the rapport that he had with Jackson over from Minnesota. Last year, Seattle was one of the three teams in the league that failed to cover a spread, going 0-3-1 ATS en route to a 1-3 SU mark.

This is just the first step for redemption for the Chargers after a season in which they missed the playoffs in very uncharacteristic fashion. The Bolts had the offense, and they had the defense to get the job done, but they were just not able to string enough things together to make it all happen. The offense will once again be headed up by QB Philip Rivers, who will probably see more reps than Jackson will this week. Backup QB Billy Volek has had a ton of reps in preseason games, especially early in the season, and he is sure to be a big part of this game, especially with rookie QB Scott Tolzien getting minimal reps in the first few days of this shortened preseason. WR Vincent Jackson should be in uniform this year, unlike last preseason when he was still holding out for a better contract. Perhaps that’s part of the reason that this team only scored 74 points in its 1-3 SU preseason.

We know that neither one of these teams are particularly interested in this game, but we also know that Seattle is going to be significantly outmatched early on with Jackson calling the shots against Rivers. Don’t be surprised if this one is 10-0 or 14-0 early, and if that’s the case, we have no choice but to take the Chargers.

PICK: Chargers -4.5

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Today's CFL Picks
Edmonton at Montreal

The Eskimos look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games. Edmonton is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Alouettes favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 11
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (8/10)

Game 491-492: Edmonton at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 112.450; Montreal 116.340
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 4; 51
Vegas Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+6 1/2); Under

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Cardinals -135 over Brewers

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Cardinals -135 over Brewers

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence Playbook

3* Best Bet Baltimore over Philly by 6

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Seattle +3 or 3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Giants Wednesday.

Today it's the Mets

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Seahawks +3-
Cardinals(NFL) +3-
Reds(RL) -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ FREE PICK

Under 32.5 Oakland/Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

OVER/UNDER HOTLINE

OPENING LOCK Cowboys/Broncos UNDER 34.5