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EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:
Padres (+115),
White Sox (-121),
Indians (+168).
Our systems say to go for:
Padres (+115),
White Sox (-121),
Indians (+168).
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DAVID MALINSKY
4* DALLAS / DENVER OVER 33.5
We are expecting to see a fair amount of game-day “Under” money in the early pre-season markets, and this one has gone true to form – an opener of 36 now shows the first 33.5 peeking their the clouds. Except that in this case we believe the money is wrong. That opens the door for excellent value in a game in which the defenses do not bring much at all to the table.
Both Denver and Dallas are making major over-hauls in their defensive playbooks, with John Fox converting Denver from a 3-4 to his preferred 4-3, and Rob Ryan revamping the Cowboy tactics significantly. But with only limited practice so far that means that they are in the early stages of their learning curve, and we saw just how far behind Dallas is when the defense was scorched in an intra-squad scrimmage last weekend, with Tony Romo going 14-20 for 150 yards and three TD’s. It will be difficult for the Cowboys to show much tonight, especially with starting CB’s Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins sidelined, along with LB Keith Brooking and DT Jay Ratliff. Meanwhile the Broncos will be without LB’s D. J. Williams and Nate Irving, CB Syd’Quan Thompson, and DT’s Mitch Unrein and Louis Leonard.
The flip side of this equation also works well. All six QB’s that will play tonight are holdovers that already have a decent chemistry with their offensive teammates, and the “bullpen” battles between Jon Kitna and Tim Tebow as the #2’s, and Stephen McGee vand Brady Quinn as the #3’s, may be the best that we will see on the entire Week #1 pre-season board. How often do we find six QB’s in one game that have all had at least one NFL start over the past two seasons? There is also decent depth at the skill positions, and we particularly like the strong camp Willis MacGahee has had in his new Denver uniforms, making him potentially one of the better #2 RB’s in the league.Comment
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Winning Points
Thursday, August 11, 2011
CINCINNATI (Cueto) -135 over COLORADO (J. Chacin)
The Reds bounced back from two losses to the Rockies with a 3-2 win last night, and they
have a good shot at salvaging a split with a victory today. Johnny Cueto has been sensational
since rejoining the rotation (2.07 ERA in his 17 starts) and Colorado has lost a fortune against
righthanders (-$2170). Jhoulys Chacin has had eight starts in the daytime, and the results have
not been impressive (4.82 ERA). Big pitching edge for the home team today at Great American.Comment
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WUNDERDOG (MLB)
MLB 28-19 last 47 picks +$1820
1 OF 2
Game: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (12:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Kansas City +170 (moneyline)
Despite getting shut out two nights ago, Kansas City has a good offense. They rank No. 13 in baseball in runs scored, No. 5 in batting and No. 9 in on-base percentage. We saw that yesterday as they bounced back with 7 runs last night in a wild game. They face Jeff Nieman here, who cooled off after a hot July, allowing 4 runs and 7 hits his last start against a weak Oakland lineup. Five of Kansas City's last seven games have been decided by one run, so they are still competitive, including a win as a dog over the Tigers. The Rays are a close to a .500 home team and have a weak offense, ranking No. 26 in batting average, No. 15 in on-base percentage, plus they have never faced KC starter Danny Duffy before. The Rays are 3-8 in their last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game and the visitors have outstanding value here. Play on the KC Royals.Comment
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OC DOOLEY
“1 UNIT” AFTERNOON BASEBALL SPECIAL (Rockies +120 at Reds in a 12:35 eastern start-------Chacin versus Cueto): Even though the offense amassed 13 hits last night, Colorado lost by a slim one-run margin on the scoreboard. This afternoon they will attempt to take 3 out of 4 games in this series by going up against National League ERA leader Johnny Cueto (2.06). The problem with Cueto is that he is coming off his worst performance of the season giving up 5 runs this past Saturday in what turned out to be an ugly 11-4 loss by Cincinnati. Both the Reds and Rockies have entertained fans this week hitting 6 homers, but today’s starting pitcher for Colorado has NOT given up a homerun in the past 3 trips to the mound spanning 18 innings. Jhoulys Chacin checks in with confidence as he is coming off his first victory in nearly 7 weeks and his career ERA against today’s opponent (2.79) is excellent. On the injury front Cincinnati offensive catalyst Brandon Phillips (elbow) is OUT of the lineup possibly for the remainder of the week. Cincinnati as a team is a horrible 1-7 this season versus a starting pitcher who struggles with control (average more than 2.75 walks per assignment). For the entire season to date Cincinnati is a sensational 13-3 when facing an opponent with a bad bullpen that has blown at least 38% of their save chancesComment
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Indian Cowboy
4* Take Connecticut -6 over San Antonio (Thursday @ 7:30pm est)
4* Take Atlanta Dream +6 over Phoenix Mercury (Thursday @ 10pm est)
4* Take Seattle -13 over Tulsa (Thursday @ 10pm est)
MLB
4* Take St. Louis Cardinals -125 over Milwaukee Brewers (Thursday @ 8:15pm est).Comment
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