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Reno Sports Advisors
4* Houston Texans -2.5
4* Houston Texans -2.5
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MLBPredictions
Kevin
New York Mets @ San Diego Padres – PADRES TO WIN (-105)
(Note: I’m risking 3.15 units to win 3 units)
The Mets come into tonight losers of 5 straight games, which included two losses to San Diego last week at home and then three straight losses to the Diamondbacks in Arizona. New York has R.A. Dickey on the mound, who is 5-11 on the season with a 3.75 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Batters are hitting .264 against Dickey. The Padres have Aaron Harang on the mound, who is 11-3 on the season with a 3.95 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Opponents are batting .281 against Harang. We saw this same pitching match up last week in New York, with Harang going just 5.2 innings, but only allowing 3 earned runs. Dickey went 6 innings and allowed 5 runs, but just 3 of them were earned runs. Harang likes pitching at home better, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last 6 home starts. Note that the Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 overall, 0-4 in their last 4 games as road underdogs, and 2-6 in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Also note that the Mets don’t play well after the weekend, going just 9-21 in their last 30 Monday games. The Mets are 2-8 in Dickey’s last 22 starts vs a team with a losing record, 1-7 in his last 8 starts vs NL West opponents, and 0-4 in his last 4 starts following a quality start in his previous start. The Padres are a decent 7-4 in their last 11 games, which included two wins against this Mets team. Note that the Padres are 4-1 in Harang’s lsat 5 starts overall, 6-2 in his last 8 vs a team with a losing record, and 5-0 in his last 5 vs NL East opponents. Also take note that the Padres are 8-3 in Harang’s last 11 starts with 4 days rest. San Diego has enjoyed some success at home against the Mets, going 20-8 in their last 28 meetings at Petco Park, and I look for that success to continue against the slumping Mets. We have value here on the Padres at a pick’em price behind Harang at home. Take the Padres moneyline with confidence tonight.Comment
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GC MLB System Play
Monday lead play is the 7* MLB GOY backed with a 100% system that wins by nearly 4 runs per game + 3 Perfect Angles. I also have a 21-1 NFLX Power Angle Play and a totals system in MLB that averages 13.4 runs per game. MLB Cashed with Texas on Sunday. MLB Free system play below.
On Monday the free MLB System Play is on the New York Yankees. Game 915 at 8:10 eastern. The Yankees apply to a nice system I use for road favorites off a home favored win, vs an opponent off a road loss with a total that was 8 or less. These road favorites cash over 80% of the time. The Yankees have the benefit of an extra day of rest as their home game against Tampa was rained out. New Yors is averaging 5 runs per game at night and 5 runs per game over the past week. The Royals have struggled at the plate of late and are averaging just 2.9 runs the past week. They have Paulino making the start. However they have lost 7 his last 8 starts. The Yankees counter with A.J. Burnett who is on the midst of another mediocre season. However,, if there is one thing he does well, its pitching vs the Royals. In his last 3 starts against them he has compiled 20 innings and has allowed just 2 runs. Look for Burnett to hold the Royals at bay, while the Yankees put up a few runs on a struggling Kansas City team. Take the Yankees tonight. For those looking for that special game I have the 7* MLB Game of the Year going tonight. This game is from a 100% system and 3 perfect Angles. Our team has a solid pitching edge as well. I also have a 21-1- Power Angle play in the NFL Game and a totals system in MLB that averages 13.4 runs per game. Don't miss any of these big plays. Start the week with a bang. For the free play take the New York Yankees. GCComment
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WUNDERDOG
NFLX
Game: New York Jets at Houston (Monday 8/15 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Jets +3 (-120) (risk 2 to win 1.7)
It has become fairly clear that with the labor dispute has affected offenses. With so many personnel changes, many have not found their rhythm yet. Nine games so far in week one featured at least one team scoring 7 or fewer points the entire game. If this holds, it gives a definite advantage to the Jets here. Houston is all about offense, with very little defense. The Jets have a better defense, and they have more depth on the defensive side. They also pride themselves as a team on defense. It's in their DNA. So, even though this is only a preseason game, you can bet the Jets defense will take pride in doing a good job. Taking what we have seen so far from week one, that side of the ball is controlling the line of scrimmage. When you factor in the numerous blitz schemes that Rex Ryan employs, it just adds to the edge that the Jets have in this one. There is also the factor of the Texans stripping down and rebuilding their entire defense, under Wade Phillips. This includes switching to a 3-4 front. That should be cause for some errors on which the Jets can capitalize. New York is 14-1 ATS in their last 15 preseason games with a total set at 35 or less. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 preseason games as a road dog of 3 or less. Meanwhile, Houston has dropped seven straight against the number as a home favorite of 3 points or less. I like the dog with a situational edge on both sides of the ball.
Play the J-E-T-S in this one.Comment
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Sports Wagers
PITTSBURGH +122 over St. Louis Pinnacle
It was an exciting run for the Pirates but it’s over and everyone knows it including the players. The Pirates are now 13 back and the only thing left to do is to make life miserable for contending teams and the Cardinals fit the bill. The Cardinals are five games out of a wildcard spot and the Pirates have a shot of virtually ending their season with a sweep and don’t think it can’t happen. Pittsburgh will be feeling no pressure anymore and they’re a lot more dangerous under those conditions. They’ll also face Jake (The Mistake) Westbrook and his lousy skills. Westbrook has a 4.74 ERA, his strikeout rate is awful and the fact that he’s taken just six losses in 24 starts is a miracle. Overall the Cards are 13-11 in his 24 starts but they could just as easily be about 8-16 because that’s how bad he’s pitched all season long. A guy like Westbrook is like playing against the house in blackjack or roulette. Eventually they’ll get you and that’s exactly the situation with Westbrook, as he’s been violating the laws of averages for too long to keep winning games. James McDonald remains a young pitcher with upside, as shown by his skills against RH bats. The reason he has not emerged is due to his struggles against LHers but let’s not forget that he was fantastic in July with a very high strikeout rate and a good groundball rate of 47%. MacDonald works with a 92-93 MPH fastball and a good curveball. Even though his aggregate surface stats don't give much reason for excitement, his elite skill flashes suggest we should keep him on our radar. Play: Pittsburgh +122 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +101 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
Interesting that the books made the Mets a favorite in this game when you consider that Aaron Harang is 11-3 and R.A. Dickey is 5-11. The money has been coming in on the Pads and now the Mets are the pooch and that’s the perfect time to step in. The books made the Mets the chalk because they know, as we do, that Harang’s numbers are an illusion. Harang’s fly-ball rate has risen every month. That’s a sign of a guy wearing out and the proof is in the pudding. Harang has allowed 23 hits over his past 10.2 innings and he’s walked five and hit one batter over that same stretch. That’s 29 base-runners over his last 10.2 frames. That’s like pitching with the bases loaded every inning and that also puts stress on the arm. Remarkably, he won both of those games because the Padres scored 24 times in the pair of games. Don’t count on the Padres bailing this guy out again. R.A. Dickey’s 5-11 record is just as misleading as Harang’s 11-3 record. Dickey has pitched very well all season. He has an elite GB rate of 57% and a xERA of 3.71. With a little run support he could easily be 11-5 instead of 5-11. If there’s any truth to things evening out over time than Dickey is in for a much-deserved win while Harang’s walking on water act will run out. Play: N.Y. Mets +101 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON +114 over Chicago Pinnacle
The Cubs are playing some decent ball, which is a surprise considering the Cubs are a mess, and things certainly bubbled over with this week's Carlos Zambrano fiasco. His move to the Disqualified List leaves the #3 starting slot in this series as a “to be decided”. Rodrigo Lopez was picked up off the scrap heap and he’s not to be trusted as a favorite at home or on the road. Furthermore, the Astros always give the Cubbies are a hard time. This season Chicago is 5-4 against the ‘Stros but six of those games were played at Wrigley. The Astros are a team of no-names right now but they feature a bunch of young and enthusiastic players getting a shot at this level. One of those guys is today’s starter, Henry Sosa. Sosa, once a promising prospect in the Giants organization, was acquired in mid-July '11. He has spent most of his career as a starter, though some scouts believe a full-time move to the bullpen would be ideal for his pure arm strength. Sosa is athletic and succeeds when he's able to command his plus 90-96 mph fastball to both sides of the plate. His second pitch is a hard curveball that serves as his strikeout offering. Sosa has effort in his high 3/4 delivery and often has significant command issues, especially when he overthrows his heater. However, his arm remains intriguing and there’s no denying he has talent. After a series in Atlanta in which Chicago took two of three in an important set for the Braves, there’s a great chance the Cubbies will show little interest in this series. Play: Houston +114 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Sports Wagers
PITTSBURGH +122 over St. Louis Pinnacle
It was an exciting run for the Pirates but it’s over and everyone knows it including the players. The Pirates are now 13 back and the only thing left to do is to make life miserable for contending teams and the Cardinals fit the bill. The Cardinals are five games out of a wildcard spot and the Pirates have a shot of virtually ending their season with a sweep and don’t think it can’t happen. Pittsburgh will be feeling no pressure anymore and they’re a lot more dangerous under those conditions. They’ll also face Jake (The Mistake) Westbrook and his lousy skills. Westbrook has a 4.74 ERA, his strikeout rate is awful and the fact that he’s taken just six losses in 24 starts is a miracle. Overall the Cards are 13-11 in his 24 starts but they could just as easily be about 8-16 because that’s how bad he’s pitched all season long. A guy like Westbrook is like playing against the house in blackjack or roulette. Eventually they’ll get you and that’s exactly the situation with Westbrook, as he’s been violating the laws of averages for too long to keep winning games. James McDonald remains a young pitcher with upside, as shown by his skills against RH bats. The reason he has not emerged is due to his struggles against LHers but let’s not forget that he was fantastic in July with a very high strikeout rate and a good groundball rate of 47%. MacDonald works with a 92-93 MPH fastball and a good curveball. Even though his aggregate surface stats don't give much reason for excitement, his elite skill flashes suggest we should keep him on our radar. Play: Pittsburgh +122 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Mets +101 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
Interesting that the books made the Mets a favorite in this game when you consider that Aaron Harang is 11-3 and R.A. Dickey is 5-11. The money has been coming in on the Pads and now the Mets are the pooch and that’s the perfect time to step in. The books made the Mets the chalk because they know, as we do, that Harang’s numbers are an illusion. Harang’s fly-ball rate has risen every month. That’s a sign of a guy wearing out and the proof is in the pudding. Harang has allowed 23 hits over his past 10.2 innings and he’s walked five and hit one batter over that same stretch. That’s 29 base-runners over his last 10.2 frames. That’s like pitching with the bases loaded every inning and that also puts stress on the arm. Remarkably, he won both of those games because the Padres scored 24 times in the pair of games. Don’t count on the Padres bailing this guy out again. R.A. Dickey’s 5-11 record is just as misleading as Harang’s 11-3 record. Dickey has pitched very well all season. He has an elite GB rate of 57% and a xERA of 3.71. With a little run support he could easily be 11-5 instead of 5-11. If there’s any truth to things evening out over time than Dickey is in for a much-deserved win while Harang’s walking on water act will run out. Play: N.Y. Mets +101 (Risking 2 units).
HOUSTON +114 over Chicago Pinnacle
The Cubs are playing some decent ball, which is a surprise considering the Cubs are a mess, and things certainly bubbled over with this week's Carlos Zambrano fiasco. His move to the Disqualified List leaves the #3 starting slot in this series as a “to be decided”. Rodrigo Lopez was picked up off the scrap heap and he’s not to be trusted as a favorite at home or on the road. Furthermore, the Astros always give the Cubbies are a hard time. This season Chicago is 5-4 against the ‘Stros but six of those games were played at Wrigley. The Astros are a team of no-names right now but they feature a bunch of young and enthusiastic players getting a shot at this level. One of those guys is today’s starter, Henry Sosa. Sosa, once a promising prospect in the Giants organization, was acquired in mid-July '11. He has spent most of his career as a starter, though some scouts believe a full-time move to the bullpen would be ideal for his pure arm strength. Sosa is athletic and succeeds when he's able to command his plus 90-96 mph fastball to both sides of the plate. His second pitch is a hard curveball that serves as his strikeout offering. Sosa has effort in his high 3/4 delivery and often has significant command issues, especially when he overthrows his heater. However, his arm remains intriguing and there’s no denying he has talent. After a series in Atlanta in which Chicago took two of three in an important set for the Braves, there’s a great chance the Cubbies will show little interest in this series. Play: Houston +114 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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WUNDERDOG (MLB)
MLB 34-29 last 63 picks +$730
I OF 5
Game: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Pittsburgh +115 (moneyline)
When Adam Wainwright went down with season-ending surgery before throwing a pitch in the regular season, the St. Louis Cardinals have looked to fill the void in their rotation all season long. It leaves them hanging on in the NL Central, trailing the brewers by five games down the stretch. Jake Westbrook had a few good years in Cleveland, but since winning 44 games from ‘04-‘06, he has won just 26 in the last five years. This year his ERA is at its highest point of his career. James McDonald has struggled on the road for the Pirates, but he has been highly effective at home with a 3-1 mark backed by a solid 3.08 ERA. The Cards are just 1-5 behind Westbrook in his last six division starts, and the Pirates are now 8-3 at home in their last 11 vs. a winning team.
Pittsburgh gets the call.Comment
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