8-24-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Boston Red Sox At Texas Rangers Betting Preview
By: Michael Robinson


Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (-105, 9)

The Boston Red Sox have a couple of key factors against them, injuries and history, as they visit the Texas Rangers on ESPN2’s Wednesday Night Baseball.

This third game of a 4-game set begins at 4:00 p.m. (PT) from Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Boston at least has the pitching edge with Josh Beckett against Matt Harrison.

The series began Monday night with Texas winning 4-0 behind lefty ace C.J. Wilson. Boston is 0-4 against the Rangers this year, all in the Lone Star State, and just 2-11 there since the start of 2009.

Game 2 on Tuesday night is still pending with Boston a 140 underdog on the Don Best odds screen. Texas native John Lackey pitched for the visitors against Colby Lewis.

Boston (77-50) is almost certainly playoff bound, but is just 5-7 in its last 12 games and injuries are a big reason why. Kevin Youkilis (back), David Ortiz (heel) and Jacoby Ellsbury (back) have all missed time, with the latter expected back Tuesday. Youkilis is definitely out Wednesday and Ortiz likely as well.

The ‘under’ is 8-1 in Boston’s last nine games, scoring 3.22 runs per game compared to 5.28 on the season (second best in MLB). It’s never good when Darnell McDonald (.639 OPS) is the No. 2 hitter like on Monday, but he’ll sit with Ellsbury’s return.

Beckett (10-5, 2.46 ERA) is another Boston starter from Texas (the Houston suburb of Spring). This is his first appearance against the Rangers this year, with his career ERA 5.53 against them in seven starts, 3.96 on the road (four starts).

The 31-year-old right-hander is having a fine season overall. Boston is 9-2 in his home starts (1.95 ERA). His road ERA is significantly higher (2.87), with the team 8-5.

The ‘under’ is 5-1 in Beckett’s last six road starts and 18-5-1 on the season. Texas is 13-3 in its last 16 home games against a right-handed starter.

Texas (74-55) is 4.5 games up on the Angels in the AL West standings, but Los Angeles is making a mini-run by winning four straight. The Rangers are 40-23 at home this year, although it’s only translated in +3.7 units.

Harrison (10-8, 3.28 ERA) is one of five Texas starters with at least 10 wins. He’s an unheralded guy who earned a rotation spot this season after spending most of last year in the pen.

The 25-year-old lefty has a 6.02 strikeout rate and a respectable .693 OPS. He got two no-decisions in his last two starts at Oakland and the White Sox, allowing seven earned runs over a combined 9 2/3 innings.

Texas still won both of those contests (7-4, 7-6) and is 8-1 in Harrison’s last nine overall (3.26 ERA). It’s 6-0 in his last six home starts (2.16 ERA).

This is Harrison’s second start against the Red Sox this year. He surrendered one earned run (five hits) over seven innings in a 5-1 home win in April, his first start of the year.

Boston is 11-5 in its last 16 road games against a lefty starter even after losing Monday to Wilson. The Red Sox are 39-26 on the road this year (+7.4 units), 12-8 in the second half.

Texas’ big injury is third baseman Adrian Beltre (hamstring), out since July 22. The offense hasn’t missed him much this month at 5.35 runs per game (the ‘over’ 12-7-1).

Dana DeMuth will call balls and strikes. The Red Sox are 13-3 in his last 16 games behind the plate. The ‘over’ is 20-6 in his last 26 games behind the dish.

Wednesday weather will be scorching hot with a high of 105 degrees. It should still be in the upper 90s come first pitch. That’s another factor in Texas’ favor.

Thursday’s finale has Andrew Miller moving ahead of Tim Wakefield, who is still looking for his 200th win. Alexi Ogando goes for the Rangers.

[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays (12-9, 2.73 ERA)

Romero is riding a career-high five-game winning streak and has a 0.89 ERA over that span. In his last trip to the hill, he fired a complete-game shutout against the Athletics, holding them to three hits while striking out six and walking two.

"I think the key for me every time I go deep into games is strike one. That's big with me, and when I do that, I feel like I'm in control," he told the Blue Jays' official website.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants (11-10, 2.53 ERA)

Lincecum hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his last eight starts, but thanks to some terrible run support, has picked up three losses along the way including a loss at Atlanta in his last outing.

He gave up a solo homer in seven innings of work while striking out seven and walking two. The Freak now has 182 strikeouts and with 18 more, will become the third pitcher in Giants history to reach 200 strikeouts in four straight seasons.


SLUMPING

Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics (9-12, 4.17 ERA)

Cahill has just one win on his resume since June 30 and is coming off one of the worst starts of the season. He gave up seven earned runs on nine hits over just 5 1/3 innings of work in a loss to the Blue Jays, marking the third time in six outings that he’s been on the hook for seven or more runs.

This year looks like a major step back since he went 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA last year.

Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles (5-16, 4.55 ERA)

Guthrie is listed as probable with shoulder stiffness and the Orioles have dropped each of his last three outings. During that span he has allowed 16 runs and four homers while striking out just five batters.

With 16 losses already, Guthrie has a shot at becoming Baltimore’s first 20-loss pitcher since 2003.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians (-105, 7)

It was an eventful afternoon at Progressive Field on Tuesday and another interesting day for Shin-Soo Choo.

First, an earthquake gave everyone a scare in the opening half of the doubleheader before Choo rocked the Mariners with a game-winning, three-run shot in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Choo was considered questionable for that game after the birth of his daughter on Monday.

"It's like a movie," the South Korean said. "It's the first walk-off homer of my baseball career and one of the biggest. That's the perfect present, right?"

It was a tough start to the season for Choo, who was drilled with a DUI that hampered his play on the field, but he had hits in nine of the 10 games he has played since coming back from injury that put him on the shelf in late June to go along with seven RBIs.

The Indians have a long way to go to catch Detroit at the top of the division, though they could be dangerous down the stretch.

PICK: Indians


Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (+120, 8)

While a lot of people seem to be waiting around for the Diamondbacks to falter as the San Francisco Giants come around and capture another NL West title, Arizona is doing all it can to book its postseason ticket.

On Tuesday, the Diamondbacks sent Kelly Johnson to the Blue Jays in exchange for second baseman Aaron Hill and infielder John McDonald. Arizona gave Johnson every opportunity to succeed, but it was time for him to go and both Hill and McDonald could be very valuable down the stretch.

"My opportunity to play for the Diamondbacks for the next five or six weeks, plus post-season, is a great opportunity, an opportunity that I wake up every morning thinking about,” McDonald told reporters. “It's kind of what every baseball player wants. You want to try and play in the postseason and I'm extremely excited about that opportunity.”

McDonald will provide some depth, while Hill may benefit from a change of scenery. He hit .286 with 36 homers and 108 RBIs in 2009, but hasn’t found his stroke at the dish since that All-Star season.

Some new blood is a good thing for the D-Backs.

PICK: Diamondbacks

[Mr. IWS]

Wednesday’s Betting Tips: MLB Favorites On A Roll

Who’s Hot

MLB: St. Louis is 8-3 in Jaime Garcia’s last 11 home starts.

MLB: The over was 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between the Reds and Marlins in Florida ahead of Monday’s action.

MLB: The Cubs have won 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog.

Who’s Not

MLB: Pittsburgh has won just five of its last 19 home games.

MLB: The New York Mets have won only five of their last 21 games overall.

MLB: Colorado is just 3-9 in Aaron Cook’s last 12 starts.

Key Stat

72.8 – MLB favorites had won 72.8 percent of their games over the last seven days heading into Tuesday night’s action.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies – Howard sat out Tuesday’s game with inflammation (bursitis) in his left foot/heel area. The injury isn’t overly serious, but the team has him listed as day-to-day and will likely give him a couple games off.

Game Of The Day

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers (-115, 9)

Notable Quotable

“Flying out to Nashville to meet with Joel and the GM in the morning to see which way (we’re) going. Could get better or (worse).” – Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson on meeting with his agent and the team Wednesday in an effort to come to a contract agreement. Johnson is holding out to become one of the highest paid playmakers in the league, while the Titans have offered to make him the NFL’s highest paid running back. Tennessee is set as a 3.5-point home favorite Sunday against the Chicago Bears.

Tips And Notes

After spending 10 days in the minors, Logan Morrison will reportedly return to the Florida Marlins Wednesday. There was a lot of speculation as to why Morrison was sent down to begin with – many figured it was a punishment for his outgoing personality. He was only hitting .167 in his stint with Triple-A New Orleans.

LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson and three teammates were questioned Tuesday about their alleged roles in a Baton Rouge bar fight and were released without any arrests being made. The four Tigers reportedly gave their side of the story and provided witnesses to back up their claims. Most books currently have LSU’s home game against Oregon on Sept. 3 off the board.

The San Francisco Giants activated outfielder Carlos Beltran from the 15-day disabled list prior to Tuesday's game against the San Diego Padres. Beltran, who has been sidelined since Aug. 7, tested his injured wrist with a batting session. However, Giants manager Bruce Bochy kept Beltran out of Tuesday's lineup in order to give him a bit more rest. Beltran is expected to start Wednesday's game with San Francisco set as an early -200 favorite against San Diego.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo, who has hit another wall, lost a pricey one last night with the Rangers, whose dismal failure against Lackey and the Sawx elevated the BURN (big ugly red number) to 2,335 shannons.

Today, Mr. Aitch will wrap things up early with some St. Looie day ball -- 20 units on the Cards to do the Hiroki-pokey against the Dodgers.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play WEDNESDAY

Orioles/Twins over 9

[Mr. IWS]

John Harrison

Houston Astros OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Rays Tuesday night.

Wednesday it's the Mariners. The deficit is 2616 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

702- 524 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one WED Tigers PK

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Giants -185 over Padres

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Giants -185 over Padres

[Mr. IWS]

Cappers Access

Cardinals(RL)
Red Sox

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 8 runs bet. Kansas City and Toronto.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Wednesday, August 24

Hot pitchers
-- Milwaukee won last three Marcum starts (1-0, 2.18).
-- Kendrick is 2-1, 2.73 in his last five starts.
-- Kuroda is 3-2, 1.95 in his last five starts.
-- WRodriguez is 2-1, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Bailey is 2-0, 3.91 in his last four starts.
-- Lowe is 2-1, 3.71 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 5-3, 1.17 in his last eight starts.

-- FHernandez is 3-2, 2.97 in his last five starts. Tomlin is 1-1, 3.15 in his last three outings.
-- Romero is 5-0, 0.89 in his last five starts.
-- Scherzer is 4-3, 3.08 in his last eight starts.
-- Angels won Weaver's last five home starts (3-0, 0.68). Stewart is 1-1, 2.13 in two starts for the White Sox.

Cold pitchers
-- Rookie Thompson was 4-7, 5.16 in AA Eastern League, where they hit .307 against him; he is 1-0, 0.77 in two AAA starts.
-- Pelfrey is 0-1, 5.91 in his last four starts.
-- JGarcia is 0-2, 7.24 in his last five starts.
-- Cook is 1-2, 5.63 in his last four starts.
-- DHudson is 1-2, 7.94 in his last three starts. LHernandez is 2-2, 7.03 in his last five starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-4, 5.86 in his last nine starts. Volstad is 0-2, 7.58 in his last four starts. Vazquez is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three outings.
-- Wells has a 5.68 RA in his last three starts.
-- Stauffer is 1-1, 7.41 in his last three starts.

-- Sabathia is 1-2, 6.86 in his last three starts. Cahill is 0-3, 8.34 in his last three starts.
-- Hochevar is 0-2, 6.75 in his last couple starts.
-- Davis is 1-1, 5.79 in his last six starts.
-- Beckett is 1-2, 4.35 in his last five starts. Harrison is 1-1, 6.26 in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-2, 7.88 in his last three starts. Slowey is 0-1, 8.22 in two starts this season.

Totals
-- Over is 15-4 in last nineteen games at PNC Park.
-- 10 of last 14 Washington games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Pelfrey starts went over the total.
-- Six of Arroyo's last eight road starts went over the total, as have five of last six Bailey starts.
-- Over is 11-2 in Lowe's last thirteen starts.
-- 10 of last 14 Dodger road games stayed under the total.
-- Four of Cook's last five starts stayed under the total.
-- Seven of last eight Lincecum starts stayed under the total.

-- Four of last five Tomlin starts stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Hochevar starts stayed under the total.
-- Last six Cahill starts went over the total.
-- Under is 9-2 in Beckett's last eleven starts.
-- Under is 7-2 in Guthrie's last nine road starts.
-- Under is 10-2 in Weaver's last dozen starts.

Hot Teams
-- Milwaukee won 24 of its last 27 games.
-- Cincinnati is 8-4 in its last twelve games.
-- Phillies won 18 of their last 23 games.
-- Washington won nine of its last thirteen home games.
-- Dodgers won their last two games, allowing three runs.
-- Braves won 15 of their last 19 games.
-- Rockies won five of last six games, scoring 49 runs.
-- Padres won their last five games, allowing 13 runs.

-- Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 14 games. Detroit won its last five games, scoring 29 runs.
-- Bronx won eight of its last twelve games. Oaland won five of seven.
-- Red Sox won nine of their last fourteen road games. Texas is 6-3 in its last nine home games.
-- White Sox won eight of their last ten road games. Angels won their last five games, scoring 31 runs.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost 16 of last 18 games, are 6-30 without Hanley Ramirez.
-- Mets lost 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Pirates lost 14 of their last 20 home games.
-- Arizona lost six of its last seven games.
-- Cubs lost their last three games, scoring six runs.
-- Cardinals lost six of their last eight games.
-- Astros lost 20 of their last 23 road games.
-- Giants lost six of their last eight games.

-- Seattle lost 21 of its last 26 road games. Indians lost five of their last six games.
-- Royals lost 11 of their last 15 games. Toronto lost three of four.
-- Baltimore lost 20 of its last 27 road games, but won last two. Twins lost 13 of their last 16 home games.

Umpires
-- Mil-Pitt-- Five of last seven Schreiber games went over total.
-- Az-Wsh-- Over is 8-3-1 in last dozen TBarrett games.
-- NY-Phil-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Fletcher games.
-- Cin-Fla-- Under is 12-1-1 in last fourteen Gibson games.
-- Atl-Chi-- Home side won ten of last eleven Reyburn games.
-- LA-StL-- Underdogs are 8-5 in Wegner games this season.
-- Hst-Col-- Over is 10-5-1 in last sixteen Kellogg games.
-- SF-SD-- Underdogs won last four Drake games.

-- Sea-Clev-- Last four Miller games went over the total.
-- A's-NY-- Six of last nine Blaser games went over the total.
-- KC-Tor-- Seven of last ten Diaz games went over the total.
-- Det-TB-- Underdogs are 11-7 in last 18 Marquez games.
-- Bos-Tex-- Eight of last nine Demuth games went over the total.
-- Blt-Min-- Home side won 12 of last 15 Layne games.
-- Chi-LAA-- Over is 12-2-2 in last sixteen Vanover games.