8-25-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

SuperSportsGroup NFLX - 8/25
Cleveland v. Philadelphia 7:30pm
PICK: OVER 39.5 Game Best bet of the day

Washington v. Baltimore 8pm
PICK: UNDER 33.5 Game

[Mr. IWS]

NFL NEWS AND NOTES
NFL Thursday Preseason: What Bettors Need to Know
By Marc Lawrence


Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 34)
STARTER REPORT

PANTHERS: As expected, QB Cam Newton and the rest of Carolina's starters will play three quarters Thursday night against Cincinnati. The Panthers are game-planning for the Bengals as if this is a regular season game.

WR Steve Smith said he plans to play against Cincinnati. Smith hasn't played in the first two exhibition games due to a finger injury.

Meanwhile, QB Cam Newton continues to bone up on the playbook.

"Coming out here each and every day and going home each and every day and going over what we had in with the installations each day, it’s been a slow process,” said Newton. “I'm just trying to keep progressing up that hill.”

BENGALS: Coach Marvin Lewis said he expects the same number of reps for the first-team offense versus Carolina, as has been the case during the first two games when they played the entire first half.

New Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton, a 2nd round pick in this year’s NFL draft, has been ineffective this exhibition season. In eleven preseason drives led by Dalton, the Bengals first-team offense went without a first down six times. Five times they punted and three times Dalton tossed an interception.

Dalton refuses to use the weather as an excuse for his mediocre play or the team’s two losses. "We cannot make the weather an excuse," he said. "Both teams had to play in (the rain). We just were not quick to start off."

THINGS TO REMEMBER: The 61-10 margin of defeat (34-3 at Detroit, 27-7 at the Jets) through two preseason games is the worst in Cincinnati’s team history. The previous record was 31 points (20-0 at Kansas City, 28-17 at the Jets) in 1986.


Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 40)
STARTER REPORT

BROWNS: Head coach Pat Shurmur said the starters will play at least the first half against the Eagles. Look for them to play well into the third quarter.

Pro Bowl WR/KR Josh Cribs (hamstring) returned to the practice field this week. He is questionable for tonight’s contest.

LG Eric Steinbach (back) and RB Brandon Jackson (toe) are still out.

Left tackle Joe Thomas inked a huge seven-year, $84 million contract extension that will keep him in Cleveland for another decade. Thomas is excited about the extension and the Browns’ direction under Shurmur.

"We're already seeing great strides. We're going to throw the ball and attack defenses. I like having an offensive head coach (in Shurmur). He's another reason I wanted to stay."

EAGLES: Coach Andy Reid said QB Michael Vick and the rest of the starters will play the entire first half and at least the first series of the third quarter versus the Browns.

RB Ronnie Brown has just 47 yards on 15 carries in two preseason games, but the former Dolphins first-round pick said it's just a matter of getting adjusted to a new team and a different system. The Eagles are toying with the possibility of having Brown return kickoffs.

THINGS TO REMEMBER: The Eagles are 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS in final preseason home games since 2000. Reid has been a preseason favorite of more than five points three times in his NFL career. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS in those games.


Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 33.5)
STARTER REPORT

REDSKINS: Redskins coach Mike Shanahan would not reveal who will start at quarterback against Baltimore, but he said that both Rex Grossman and John Beck will work with the starters.

Grossman says he notices a difference now that he's entering a third year in this offensive system. Being able to start three games in 2010 helped, too.

"You have more ease about everything," he said. "That's what I'm feeling."

Facing an aggressive defense this week should be good for Beck. His longest pass against Indianapolis was only 16 yards in the air as the Colts played a lot of two-deep zone, forcing underneath throws.

Baltimore's aggressive style provides more time for downfield tosses.

RAVENS: Coach John Harbaugh said the plan tonight is to play the starters into the third quarter, possibly through three quarters. He added that veterans such as LB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed, OLB Terrell Suggs and DT Haloti Ngata will not play very long.

DC Chuck Pagano has blitzed and mixed coverages up this preseason, even after he told reporters he’d keep things vanilla.

“We kind of expected it, that’s Chuck’s personality,” OLB Jarret Johnson said. “I can’t believe he said he was going to be vanilla.”

THINGS TO REMEMBER: Baltimore is 4-1 SU and ATS the last five meetings in this series during the preseason since 2005. Shanahan has been a preseason dog of more than five points on six different occasions in his NFL career. His teams managed to win all six games straight-up.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best NFL Bets

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 33.5)

The Washington Redskins head up Interstate 95 this Thursday night to take on the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in this Week 3 NFL preseason clash. Game time is set for 8 p.m. and it will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

The Redskins moved to 2-0 this preseason with a 16-3 win over Indianapolis as five-point road favorites this past Friday night. This followed a solid 16-7 victory over Pittsburgh in their first game as 2.5-point home underdogs. Both games stayed well ‘under’ the total line.

The big debate in Washington these days is not on Capitol Hill rather it revolves around who will be the team’s starting quarterback on opening day against the New York Giants. John Beck got the start against the Colts and led the Redskins to scores in their first four possessions. He finished the night going 14-for-17 for 140 yards, but could not get his team into the end zone. Rex Grossman got the call against the Steelers and went 19-for-26 for 207 yards with one touchdown.

Baltimore looked flat in a 13-6 loss to Philadelphia as a three-point road underdog in its preseason opener, but bounced back last Friday night with a 31-13 come-from-behind victory over Kansas City as a 6.5-point home favorite. The total stayed ‘under’ the 34-point line in Game 1, but went ‘over’ the 32.5-point line against the Chiefs.

There is no quarterback controversy here but Joe Flacco did not look especially sharp in either outing, completing just 50 percent of his attempts so far. Ray Rice has run the ball 12 times for 51 yards in limited action while newly acquired wide receiver Lee Evans had three catches for 68 yards including a 43-yard reception in his debut against Kansas City.

This game will be the first true test for both teams as the starters are expected to play well into the second half. Defense will be the key as neither team has been able to find the end zone in the preseason so far.

PICK: Ravens -5.5 & UNDER 33.5


Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 34)

The Carolina Panthers were the worst team in the NFL last year, but the Cincinnati Bengals weren’t far behind. The Panthers selected Cam Newton in the NFL Draft, while the Bengals took A.J. Green. Neither team is expected to be good this year, but both teams are desperately looking for something to build off of. The Bengals have looked like the worst team in the NFL in the first two preseason games this year. Can the Bengals bounce back at home in this one or will the Panthers pick up their second preseason win?

Carolina won their first preseason game by a score of 20-10, and then lost their second game 20-10. Cam Newton started last game, and he will start again in this one. It is starting to look like the Panthers are going to go with Newton as their starting quarterback when the regular season gets underway. The Panthers still have an impressive duo in the backfield in the form of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers are dealing with a ton of injuries in the preseason, which has to be concerning for this team. In last week’s game against Miami, the Panthers had 16 players who sat out with injuries.

Carson Palmer has decided to “retire” since the Bengals didn’t trade him, and that means Andy Dalton has basically been handed the starting job for Cincinnati in his rookie season. Dalton has struggled quite a bit in the preseason thus far. He has already thrown three interceptions despite attempting only 34 passes in the first two games. It isn’t just Dalton that is struggling. The entire Bengals offense has looked awful in the first two preseason games. The Bengals have been able to muster a total of 10 points in two full games. Green is showing flashes of brilliance at the wide receiver spot, but this offense doesn’t have too much going for it at this point. The Bengals will rely on their defense to keep them in games this season.

Don’t expect a pretty game when these two teams get together. The players will be fighting hard for roster spots, but these teams are both going to be bad once again this season. The Panthers have looked a little more reliable than the Bengals. I like the underdog here.

PICK: Panthers +2.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Pittsburgh Pirates Open Set In St. Louis
By: Matty Simo


Pittsburgh Pirates at Saint Louis Cardinals (-160, 8)

The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals will meet for the fourth time in 11 days on Thursday when they square off in the series opener of a four-game set at Busch Stadium. The teams will face each other three more times in the middle of September at Pittsburgh, and both are considered long shots to catch the Milwaukee Brewers for the lead in the National League Central.

Thursday's series opener in St. Louis is scheduled to start at 5:15 p.m. (PT).

The Cardinals lost two of three at PNC Park early last week to start a negative trend of three consecutive series losses that pushed them 10 games behind the division-leading Brewers heading into Wednesday’s action.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh had dropped 14 of the previous 15 meetings with Milwaukee going into Wednesday’s series finale at home. The Bucs have won just two series over the past month, including the one against St. Louis.

Pittsburgh’s Charlie Morton (9-6, 3.42 ERA) has pitched great over his last four starts but does not have much to show for it. Morton has given up a combined three runs in 28 1/3 innings with the Pirates splitting those four games. They scored five runs in each of the wins and totaled one in the two losses.

Morton has been a much better pitcher on the road this season with a 6-2 mark and 3.07 ERA. He has been an underdog in five of his past six outings, cashing at +170 on the road against San Francisco on August 8 and +120 at home against the Cardinals on July 24.

The ‘under’ is 4-0 in his last four starts.

St. Louis will turn to Edwin Jackson (9-9, 4.03) in hopes of winning a series opener for the first time since August 12. The Cardinals have lost three of Jackson’s last four outings and are 2-3 since he joined the team after coming over in a trade from the Chicago White Sox.

Jackson has allowed three runs or less in his past three starts but has not received much run support in the two losses during that stretch. St. Louis was blanked 3-0 by the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field in his last outing on Saturday as a small -105 favorite.

He has been favored in all five of his starts with the Cardinals, facing just three teams, including the Cubs and Brewers twice apiece.

The ‘under’ is 2-0-1 in his last three outings.

The weather forecast for St. Louis on Thursday calls for a high temperature of 87 degrees under sunny skies after a heat wave featuring isolated thunderstorms rolls through the area on Wednesday.

The series will continue Friday with a matchup of right-handers, Jake Westbrook for the Cards and James McDonald for the Pirates.

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates (9-6, 3.42 ERA)

Charlie Morton has just one win on his record over the last four starts, despite the fact that he’s allowed only three runs over that span. He hasn’t allowed a homer and all four of those games played under during that. This season has been a huge improvement from last year when he went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA.

“The approach was pretty much to change my style of pitching to be just a power, four-seam guy with a good curveball and a decent change-up,” Morton told reporters.

Phil Hughes, New York Yankees (4-4, 5.75 ERA)

Hughes got off to a rocky start this season, but he’s making a big push down the stretch. The 25-year-old who won 18 games last year is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in his last four starts and looks to be gaining velocity on his fastball after his shoulder injury earlier this season.

"I can't look back at the beginning of the year," Hughes told reporters. "That's over and done with. I have to make the most of what I have left."


SLUMPING

Jeff Francis, Kansas City Royals (4-14, 4.89 ERA)

So far, August has been awfully tough on Jeff Francis. He’s 0-3 this month and has allowed at least four runs in each of those four starts. Francis now sits sixth from the basement in Covers.com’s starter money standings, having lost 9.64 units for his supporters.

Francis has allowed a homer in each of his last four starts and has served up 16 taters on the year, five more than last season.

Jo-Jo Reyes, Baltimore Orioles (6-10, 5.44 ERA)

A change of scenery hasn’t done much to help out Reyes, who came over from the Blue Jays late last month. In three starts with Baltimore, the lefty is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA and has served up five homers.

He allowed five runs on eight hits while walking three in an 8-3 loss to the Angels in his last outing.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees (-200, 9.5)

Heading into Wednesday’s matchup between these two teams, oddsmakers had the Yankees listed around -240 favorites. They were soon bet up to as high as -360 at one online shop and were north of -300 at a handful of others.

Thursday you’ll be able to put down a Yanks bet at a more reasonable price, but it’s still fat enough to give the underdog A’s a long look.

Oakland sends out Rich Harden against the resurgent Phil Hughes and you have to like what the Canadian kid has been up to lately on the hill. He has won two of his last three starts, striking out 23 batters along the way.

After loading the bases in the first, he blanked the Blue Jays over seven innings in his last outing, allowing just two hits while punching out 11 batters.

"This might have been the best feeling I've had (this year) as far as command," Harden said. "After that first inning, it came together. I had my command, and I located well. It was a good feeling."

The Yanks reportedly had interest in acquiring Harden earlier this year and we think he could give them a taste of what they missed out on.

PICK: Athletics


Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals (-135, 8.5)

The big leagues can often be very cruel to rookie pitchers in their first few outings. Arizona starter Wade Miley found that out in a hurry when he took the ball in his first MLB game last week.

Miley was drilled for five runs on seven hits in four innings during a 8-1 blowout loss at Atlanta.

"It went well other than the fact that a couple of pitches didn't go where I wanted, and guys don't miss mistakes up here," Miley told reporters. "I learned that very quick. I felt like I made some quality pitches, but they hit quality pitches, so you have to make great pitches to get these guys."

It certainly wasn’t all bad. He did strike out five batters and looks like he definitely has big-league stuff. Whether he can put it all together is another question, of course.

We’ll take a shot with the under.

PICK: Under

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA: Shock - Storm Preview
By Associated Press


Tulsa Shock at Seattle Storm (-14.5, 140.5)

The last time Lauren Jackson faced the Tulsa Shock, she left with a hip injury that cost her nearly two months of the season. In two games since returning, the three-time MVP has delivered late to help the Seattle Storm get back on track.

Jackson and the Storm look to continue their playoff push Thursday night when they host the Shock, who have lost a league-record 19 in a row and haven't won on the road in 13 months.

Jackson suffered a torn labrum during an 82-77 victory at Tulsa on June 21. Seattle (15-12) went 10-10 without the seven-time All-Star center, but has won two straight since her return - thanks in large part to Jackson.

She scored her team's first 10 fourth-quarter points and finished with 20 in a 63-62 victory over New York on Saturday. On Tuesday, Jackson shot 3 of 4 to score six of her 13 points in the final 10 minutes of a 63-55 home win over San Antonio.

The Storm had been 0-9 this season when trailing after three quarters prior to those contests. They had dropped four of five just before their star's return.

" ... Lauren made a couple of Lauren Jackson plays with turnaround jump shots and drop steps," coach Brian Agler said after the victory over the Silver Stars.

Seattle trails second-place Phoenix by 1 1/2 games in the Western Conference.

The Shock (1-24) will try to limit the Storm's opportunities in the paint, but they haven't had much success in slowing down point guard Sue Bird during their three losses to Seattle this season.

Bird, who scored 12 points Tuesday to become the 16th player in league history to reach 4,000, is averaging team highs of 19.7 points and 5.3 assists against the Shock in 2011. For the season, she's scoring 15.0 points per game with 4.9 assists.

While Seattle will try to post its fifth straight victory in this matchup and improve to 29-2 at home since the start of 2010, Tulsa hasn't won since June 18.

The Shock have lost 21 straight on the road since July 16, 2010. They have been outscored by an average of 25.3 points in three games at KeyArena since relocating from Detroit prior to last season, including a league-record 46-point defeat Aug. 7, 2010.

Tulsa came very close to ending its skid Tuesday before losing 78-72 to WNBA-leading Minnesota. Ivory Latta had a jumper in the lane blocked with 19.1 seconds left as the Ly*x held off a late rally.

"We thought tonight might be the night," said center Tina Jackson, who leads Tulsa with 16.7 points and 8.3 rebounds against Seattle this year. "We just came up short, but we're getting there.''

The Shock's Liz Cambage scored a career-best 24 points with 10 rebounds in a 77-63 loss at Seattle on Aug. 11.

[Mr. IWS]

LADY LUCK

Thursday's Best WNBA Bets

Tulsa Shock at Seattle Storm (-14.5, 140.5)

Up 15 points in the third quarter against the WNBA’s best team, the Tulsa Shock must have thought their moment had finally come on Tuesday.

However, after another final-frame collapse, the Shock set a league record with their 19th straight defeat – not that it mattered much to bettors.

"We thought tonight might be the night," Shock center Tina Jackson told reporters, “We just came up short, but we're getting there.''

They easily covered as 13-point unders in the 78-72 loss to Minnesota, marking the fourth time they’ve covered the spread in their last six.

However, Shock supporters have a tough call coming up with this line. Seattle looks like it is ready to make a major push up the Western Conference standings now that Lauren Jackson is back in the mix.

Jackson has been money in the fourth quarter since coming back in a pair of tough wins against New York and San Antonio. The Storm head into this one just 1 ½ games back of second-place Phoenix in the West and should be able to cut into the deficit with another win.

We’ll avoid the spread all together and jump on the under. These two teams have combined to play under 12 times in their last 13 games.

PICK: Under

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Betting Tips: ‘Skins Mum On Starting QB

Who’s Hot

MLB: The under is 11-4 in Washington’s last 15 games overall.

WNBA: The under is 6-1 in Seattle’s last seven games.

NFL: Baltimore is 4-1 against the spread in its last five preseason meetings with Washington.

Who’s Not

MLB: Pittsburgh is just 8-21 in its last 29 overall.

WNBA: Tulsa has lost a WNBA-record 19 straight games outright.

NFL: Philadelphia is 1-10 against the spread in its last 11 final preseason home games since 2000.

Key Stat

65 – Home underdogs have covered in 65 percent (13-7-2) of WNBA games over the last month.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Vladimir Guerrero, Baltimore Orioles – Guerrero is banged up again and sat out Wednesday’s game with a left wrist contusion after he was hit with a ball during batting practice. X-rays came back negative and he’s currently listed as day-to-day. He’s hitting .276 with 10 homers and 44 RBIs this season.

Game Of The Day

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 39.5)

Notable Quotable

"I mean, it's kind of expected. I've played so many matches this year. I've been winning a lot and reaching the final stages of each event that I've participated on. You know, considering the schedule that is very busy in tennis, it's kind of normal to expect that at some stage you are exhausted." – Novak Djokovic earlier this week after retiring at Cincinnati last week after citing shoulder soreness. Despite that, Djokovic was listed as the U.S. Open’s top seed Tuesday and is currently the tournament’s favorite at +130.

Tips And Notes

Washington Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan won’t name his starting quarterback for Thursday’s game in Baltimore and doesn’t expect to name a regular season starter until shortly before Week 1. If familiarity with Baltimore’s defense means anything, John Beck would have the advantage over Rex Grossman Thursday after playing the 2009 season with the Ravens. Right now, Beck was 14 for 17 for 140 yards last week against Indy, while Grossman is 19 for 26 for 207 yards and a touchdown in two appearances so far. Washington is a 5.5-point underdog on the road.

Houston Astros starter Henry Sosa will be back on the mound pitching on just three days’ rest Thursday against the San Francisco Giants. Sosa pitched five innings Sunday against the Giants and was hammered for four runs in a 6-4 loss. San Francisco batted around and scored three of those runs in the second inning.

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Mariners Wednesday.

Thursday it's the Cardinals. The deficit is 2566 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Stumbling Hondo, who can't buy one, fell on his face again yesterday when the collapsing Cards suc cumbed against the Dodgers to raise the runaway deficit to a season-high 2,495 slaughts.

Today, Mr. Aitch is playing pin the tail on the Pitching Form, which has given him plays on Miller and Morton, that old salt. Twenty units apiece on the Sawx and Pirates.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play THURSDAY

Blue Jays -1.5 +125

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

702- 525 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one THURS:Cards -160

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Rays -150 over Tigers