8-26-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

Goodlyfe sports

NFL
Green Bay Packers -8.5 (-110) Risk 330/Win 300
Buy down to -7 (-140) Risk 280/Win 200

[Mr. IWS]

NFL NEWS AND NOTES
NFL Preseason Friday: What Bettors Need to Know
By Ashton Grewal


Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (8.5, 39)
STARTER REPORT

PACKERS: Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy will not give his starters three quarters of work like most coaches do in Week 3 of the preseason. He told Packers.com that he's more interested in seeing the younger players on the team’s roster.

“I know you traditionally play into the third quarter (in the third preseason game),” McCarthy said. “We will not do that. Our starters will not come out in the second half.”

Quarterbacks Matt Flynn and Graham Harrell will split the second half snaps. Also, starting receiver Greg Jennings hasn’t been ruled out but missed practice on Thursday and is still troubled by a sore right knee.

COLTS: The big news came in on Wednesday regarding the Colts' QB situation. Peyton Manning will not play again this week but neither will newly-signed veteran Kerry Collins. The 38-year-old won’t see any game action for Indy until the final week of the preseason, according to the IndyStar.com.

That leaves the quarterbacking duties still in the hands of Curtis Painter, Dan Orlovsky and Nate Davis. The Colts are tight-lipped about the amount of playing time for their starters in Friday’s game but bettors can expect to see Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne back on the field. Fellow receivers Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez will continue to sit out due to injuries.

THINGS TO REMEMBER: Indy has been outscored 49-13 this preseason and are 2-8 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 preseason games.


St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5, 35)
STARTER REPORT

RAMS: Head coach Steve Spagnuolo said he’d like his starters to play the entire first half and one series in the second half, depending on how many snaps that ends up being for his first-team offense.

A.J. Feeley and Thaddeus Lewis should get the remaining offensive plays under center for the Rams but there’s a chance fourth-string QB Taylor Potts could see some playing time late in the game.

CHIEFS: Kansas City coach Todd Haley isn’t saying how long he’ll play his starters on Friday but it’d be safe for bettors to assume Haley will fall on the conservative side. The Chiefs have been an abysmal preseason bet for years, especially under Haley’s direction.

THINGS TO REMEMBER: The Chiefs are 0-9-1 ATS in the preseason under Haley and 4-25-1 in their last 30 exhibition games.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Friday's Best NFL Bets

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (+8.5, 39)

The Green Bay Packers take on the Indianapolis Colts this Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in a Week 3 NFL preseason matchups of two teams that hope to be playing here again in early February of next year. Kick-off is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on CBS.

With Super Bowl XLVI slated to be played in Indianapolis this season, Green Bay is hoping a return trip is in order to defend its 2010 world title. The Packers took a step in the right direction towards that goal with a 28-20 win over Arizona as a five-point home favorite last Friday night. This followed a 27-17 loss to Cleveland as a 2.5-point road underdog in their first preseason game. The total went ‘over’ in both these games.

It has been a slow but steady start for the defending champions as Aaron Rodgers has seen little action so far but has been sharp as ever, completing 75 percent of his attempts for 171 yards and two touchdowns. Running backs Ryan Grant and James Starks have only carried the ball a combined 10 times, but are averaging over five yards an attempt.

There is trouble brewing in Indy after two dreadful performances so far. The Colts lost their preseason opener to St. Louis 33-10 as seven-point road underdogs and were beaten 16-3 last Friday night by Washington as five-point home underdogs. The total went ‘over’ the 34-point line in Game 1 but stayed ‘under’ the 35-point line against the Redskins.

Peyton Manning’s recovery from offseason neck surgery has kept the future ‘Hall of Famer’ sidelined this preseason, but the fear now is that his recovery may linger into the start of the regular season. There probably is not a team in the NFL that is more dependent on the play of one man as Indianapolis, so the future health of this team is directly tied to the health of Manning’s neck.

The Colts are completely punchless without Manning’s presence in the lineup, so this should be a walk in the park for the Packers.

PICK: Green Bay -8.5


St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5, 35)

It’s the annual Show Me State showdown in Missouri, and this year, there are definitely high hopes for both the St. Louis Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs as they faceoff at Arrowhead Stadium.

The preseason usually doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot, but it became clear last year in the third week of exhibitions that the Rams had themselves a star in the making in QB Sam Bradford. Bradford did everything that he could to lead the way for St. Louis in an upset victory as big dogs against the New England Patriots in Foxboro. And, true to the form that they showed in the preseason, the Rams nearly won the NFC West a season ago, even though the division was as bad as any foursome that we’ve seen since the most recent division alignment. Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo and company once again look good in the preseason this year, scoring wins over both the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts in the first two weeks of the year. Bradford has led the team on TD drives to start the game in both of the duels, something that no one else in the league can say through two weeks, and the hope is definitely there for that to continue now that the Rams have to leave the Edwards Jones Dome for the first time on the year.

And then there are the Chiefs, who did excel a season ago under Head Coach Todd Haley to make it to the playoffs as the AFC West champs. However, so far this season, this looks like a team that isn’t very deep and isn’t very talented on either side of the ball. The defense has had plenty of opportunities to show off, but the problem is that the unit can’t get off of the field. Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers literally ran the ball right down the throats of the Chiefs in their first two exhibitions, which really is a bad sign for Romeo Crennel’s defense. The biggest question in KC though, is whether or not this offense is going to be able to shine without Charlie Weis calling the shots. Right now, we’d have to say that the answer is “No.” Even though QB Matt Cassel wasn’t fantastic last year, Weis made the most out him and kept control of the pigskin well. However, this season, there definitely seems to be a void about controlling the ball, knowing that the team only has 13 points to show for its first two games of the year.

St. Louis Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Things have to get better with the first team offense for the Chiefs at some point during the preseason, and this seems like a good candidate to change all of that. We aren’t a fan of high scoring games in the preseason, but this feels like it’s the right spot to take a chance, knowing how well the St. Louis offense has played in both of its first two games.

PICK: OVER 35

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
New York Yankees At Baltimore Betting Preview
By: Evan Abrams


New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-175, 10)

The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees begin a five-game series Friday at Camden Yards with a scheduled start time of 4:05 p.m. (PT).

New York's rotation is in a bit of flux right now with Freddy Garcia (finger) expected to come off the disabled list for the second game of Saturday's doubleheader, according to a recent report in the New York Daily News.

Garcia pitched four innings in relief for Class AAA Scranton on Monday, and is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA for the parent club since the end of June.

The return of Garcia could bump 38-year-old Bartolo Colon from the New York rotation, at least temporarily. Colon has been knocked around in his last two starts, allowing 10 earned runs and four long balls in 11 1/3 innings.

Hurricane Irene could also play into this series, as well as all other sporting events on the East Coast this weekend. Current forecasts call for a warm and muggy evening in Baltimore for Friday, but rain and wind follow on Saturday and Sunday. A rainout either day could force the Yankees into a situation where they would need an extra starter for the makeup.

A.J. Burnett (9-10, 4.96) is slated to start Friday night for New York against Baltimore right-hander Tommy Hunter (2-2, 4.95).

Burnett has not allowed less than three earned runs in any of his last nine starts. He has been touched up for seven runs in two of his last four starts, each time on the road. Burnett's most recent outing saw him heading to the showers before the end of the second frame after walking three and seeing seven Twins runners cross the plate.

He's won just two of his last 10 assignments, with the Yankees dropping eight of his 14 trips to the bump.

Hunter will be making his fifth start of the season for Baltimore after coming over in a late-July trade from Texas. His control has been impeccable since joining the O's, walking just one batter in 24 2/3 innings. But he's been no mystery to hitters otherwise, serving up 37 hits since joining his new club and owning a 6.20 ERA in a Baltimore jersey.

Burnett and Hunter have combined to post a 7.96 ERA in their last four starts, and Friday night should be no different with both the Orioles and Yankees offenses getting ready to tee off.

This series begins at the perfect time for the Yankees after having trouble at home with the Athletics earlier in the week. New York's recent success versus Baltimore – 20-6 in the last 26 meetings – is just the thing the club needs to try and shake off the recent trouble.

Two key injuries to pay attention to when the Orioles and Yankees face off Friday night is Alex Rodriguez (jammed thumb) and Vladimir Guerrero (hit on wrist by ball at batting practice Wednesday). Both players are questionable for their games on Thursday and could play a big part in the outcome on Friday if they can play.

New York had dropped three of four to the Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins entering Thursday's action, and needs this Baltimore series to get back on track so they can keep pace with the Boston Red Sox in the AL East standings. The Red Sox held a 1-game lead on the Yankees before play Thursday. The Yankees finish their series at home versus Oakland, while the Red Sox wrap up their series on the road in Texas before returning home to face the Athletics.

Assuming Mother Nature allows it, the O's and Yanks will play a twinbill on Saturday necessitated by a rainout in April. Ivan Nova and Brian Matusz are the scheduled starters for the early game with Garcia and Britton the mound matchup in the nightcap.

[Mr. IWS]

Friday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves (13-7, 3.01 ERA)

Hudson continued his strong season by firing seven scoreless innings in Atlanta’s 1-0 win over Arizona, picking up his 12th consecutive quality start. The veteran now sports a 1.88 ERA since the All-Star break and is set as an early -155 favorite Friday when the Braves visit the New York Mets.

Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels (13-6, 2.98 ERA)

The Angels have won four of Haren’s last five starts, including a 8-3 win over Baltimore in his last trip to the hill. He allowed all three runs over seven innings, but also struck out eight without walking a batter. Haren now has 156 strikeouts on the year compared to only 26 walks.


SLUMPING

Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (11-8, 5.17 ERA)

Porcello was cruising through four innings Sunday against the Indians, but he was hammered for five earned runs in the fifth and got the hook. Manager Jim Leyland was disappointed Porcello couldn’t give him at least six innings of work, though he shouldn’t be surprised. Porcello has allowed 17 runs in his last 13 1/3 innings.

"I'm still confident I can figure things out," Porcello told reporters. "I just got to keep grinding through the ups and downs.That's the bottom line."

J.A. Happ, Houston Astros (4-14, 6.26 ERA)

Happ makes his first start back with the Astros after a stint in the minors. He threw well in Triple-A, but definitely deserved the demotion. He is 0-3 with a 9.29 ERA in his last three MLB starts and ranks dead last in Covers.com’s money starter standings, having lost more than 13 units for his supporters this season.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Friday’s Best MLB Bets

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (-175, 10)

A day after the Yankees swatted MLB three grand slams in a 22-9 pasting of the Oakland Athletics we may see some more fireworks.

With the big win, the Yankees now have the over on an 11-3-1 run and that’s where we’re looking with A.J. Burnett sharing the hill with Tommy Hunter.

Burnett, who is holding onto his starting rotation job by a thread, is 1-4 with a 6.93 ERA in his last nine starts and has a 10.70 ERA in four trips to the hill.

“It’s about what’s best for our team as we move forward toward the postseason,” Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters. “Two weeks ago, everyone said Phil Hughes should go to the pen. Last week, it was Bartolo Colon. Now it’s A.J. Ultimately, the game will tell you who should go to the pen.”

Meanwhile, Hunter is coming off a 9-8 loss to the Angels that saw him give up six earned runs on 10 hits over 6 1/3 innings.

Buckle up, kids.

PICK: Over


Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (+135, 7.5)

If you haven’t noticed, the Atlanta Braves are on a bit of a roll.

They are 16-5 in their last 21 after taking care of the Cubs and led the NL Wild Card race by 8 ½ games heading into Thursday’s action.

The great news for Atlanta backers is that Brian McCann may finally be heating up after struggling since he came off the DL. He smoked a pair of homers in the club’s 8-3 win over Chicago in the series finale before the team headed to the Big Apple.

"I just haven't really swung the bat well since coming off the DL," McCann told reporters. "When you don't feel good and you face good pitching, it's going to expose you. I've been working in the cage the last three or four days, just trying to find it. Today I made some strides."

McCann was hitting only .139 since coming back from his oblique injury, so this could be huge for the Braves.

PICK: Braves

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
Mercury In Tough Test At Connecticut Sun
By: Michael Robinson


Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun (-5, 180)

The Phoenix Mercury start a 4-game road trip on Friday at one of the toughest home teams in the WNBA, the Connecticut Sun. Things will get much tougher for Phoenix if superstar Diana Taurasi can’t play.

The Don Best odds screen will release odds shortly, with the tip from Mohegan Sun Arena coming at 4:30 p.m. (PT).

Both teams are currently in second place in their conference. Connecticut (17-10 straight-up) is two games back of Indiana (19-8) in the East, while Phoenix (15-11) is trying to hold off Seattle (15-12) for second in the West, with Minnesota (21-6) having already clinched.

Taurasi missed the last two games with back spasms and is questionable for Friday. She’s the leading scorer (21 PPG) in the league and the shooting guard also contributes 4.0 APG and 3.3 RPG.

Phoenix was able to survive the first game without Taurasi, an 87-81 home win over struggling San Antonio. Forwards Penny Taylor (28 points) and Candice Dupree (20 points) took advantage of their increased scoring opportunities. However, the team did just fail to ‘cover’ as 6½-point favorites.

The Taurasi loss was felt more in Tuesday's 74-70 home loss to New York as 5½-point favorites. Taylor and Dupree were held to a combined 31 points and former teammate Cappie Pondexter had 25 for the visitors. That broke a 4-game home winning streak.

The Mercury are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

Phoenix (90 PPG) is easily the highest scoring team in the league and gives up the most points (86.7 PPG). However, both scoring (86.8 PPG) and points allowed (85.8 PPG) are down over the last nine games, with the ‘under’ going 6-3.

The ‘under’ would have been 8-1 if not for two games going into overtime.

The Mercury have played just one road game since August 2, a 93-90 overtime loss at Los Angeles as 5½-point favorites on August 12. Their road record for the year is 6-6 SU and against the spread.

The Sun have been a great home team the past few years and this season is no exception (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS). They’re 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 6-3 ATS at home.

Connecticut’s last game was Sunday at home against Atlanta, a 96-87 win as three-point favorites. Point guard Renee Montgomery led the way with 21 points, but team depth was shown with five players in double-digits.

The 183 combined points scored went way ‘over’ the 165-point total. The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the Sun’s last three home games, turning up the offense at 95.3 PPG.

The 5-foot-7 Montgomery (15.5 PPG) is the team’s second-leading scorer behind 6-foot-4 center Tina Charles (17.7 PPG, 10.9 RPG) and 6-foot-3 forward Asjha Jones (13.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG). All three played college ball at UConn, which certainly helps at the box office and to breed the home success.

Phoenix and Connecticut last met August 7 in the desert. The Sun survived 96-95 in overtime as 6½-point underdogs. Montgomery (28 points), Jones (27) and Charles (23) combined for 78 of the 96 points. That offset 29 from Taurasi.

The last meeting back East was last year with the Sun winning 82-79, failing to ‘cover’ as 5½-point favorites. Phoenix is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the last three games there overall.

The ‘under’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Connecticut, with no combined score going above 175 points.

[Mr. IWS]

LADY LUCK

Friday's Best WNBA Bets

Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun (-5, 180)

While the Phoenix Mercury have dropped four straight games against the spread, they’re still in the middle of the Western Conference’s tight playoff race.

This upcoming road trip is a big one, but the Mercury could be in a tough spot if WNBA leading scorer Diana Taurasi’s back spasms don’t let up. She missed her second consecutive game Tuesday, a 74-70 loss to New York.

"We're a scared team right now, playing without Diana," guard Alexis Gray-Lawson told reporters. "Just imagine if she comes back, we'll be even better. So (we) can't wait till she gets back."

Taurasi’s currently listed as questionable, but you have to think that even if she does play, she probably won’t be 100 percent.

Connecticut is averaging 91 points per game over its last five, about 13 points more than its season average. The Sun should be able to get this done at home.

PICK: Connecticut


San Antonio Silver Stars at Minnesota Ly*x (-8, 151.5)

The Silver Stars have dropped each of their last four games, covering just once during the slump. Snapping that slide could be a tall order against the league-leading Ly*x.

San Antonio is coming off a disappointing 63-55 loss at Seattle that showcased the club’s spotty offense. The Silver Stars shot just 32 percent from the floor and managed just nine points in the opening quarter.

"We have to build from this. We came out aggressive and had a mentality that was focused and determined. This next game against Minnesota, we just have to carry that over," forward Sophia Young said. "Obviously these next couple of games are important for us to win so we have to get it in our minds that it's a must-win."

We’re not buying into the desperation routine.

PICK: Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Friday’s Betting Tips: Packers To Pull Starters Early

Who’s Hot

MLB: Detroit has won 13 of its last 16 meetings with Minnesota.

CFL: Winnipeg is riding a 16-5-1 run against the spread.

WNBA: Washington has covered in eight of its last 11.

Who’s Not

NFL: The Chiefs are 0-9-1 against the spread in the preseason under Todd Haley.

MLB: Pittsburgh is 3-9 in its last 12 games in St. Louis.

CFL: The under is 0-4 in Hamilton’s last four games overall.

WNBA: Los Angeles is 7-16 against the spread in its last 23 contests.

Key Stat

8.5 – According to the Elias Sports Bureau, MLB games were averaging 8.5 runs per game heading into Tuesday’s action this season. That’s down from a 8.8 average last year and a 9.2 number in 2009. Along that line, the league’s average ERA was 3.91 and will likely finish under 4.00 for the first time since 1992.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Diana Taurasi, Phoenix Mercury – Taurasi has missed the last two games with back spasms and is currently questionable for Friday’s game against Connecticut. Taurasi leads the WNBA with 21 points per game for the Mercury, who are set as 5-point road underdogs at the Sun.

Game Of The Day

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (1.5, 35.5)

Notable Quotable

“He’s better than he has shown. He’s having his typical, terrible August and I wish I could wave a magic wand and change that, but I can’t. We’ll make a decision when we have to make one.” – New York Yankees GM Brian Cashman on the struggling A.J. Burnett. He gets the call Friday as a -175 favorite at Baltimore.

Tips And Notes

Most NFL teams usually play their starters about three quarters in the third week of preseason, but the Green Bay Packers won’t be one of them Friday against Indianapolis Colts. Packers coach Mike McCarthy wants to get a better look at his backups, so he’ll give his first-stringers the hook early. "It's a little different than prior years as far as dress rehearsal, but we'll play our starters close to a half," McCarthy told reporters. The Packers are set as 8.5-point road favorites.

The Cleveland Indians acquired veteran slugger Jim Thome from the Minnesota Twins Thursday for a player to be named later. Thome has 12 homers and 40 RBIs in 206 at-bats this season and should provide some pop from the DH position. The Indians hope he’ll be able to suit up Friday when they host the Royals as a -165 favorite.

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers’ “Swaggerville” defense, which leads the league in fewest points allowed (130), interceptions (11) and sacks (29), faces a test against Hamilton’s offense Friday night. The Tiger Cats have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games. Winnipeg is currently set as a 3.5-point favorite.

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Cardinals Thursday night.

Friday it's the Yankees. The deficit is 2516 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo made some minor progress last night when his victory with the Bosawx overwhelmed his loss with the Pirates and reduced the damage to 2,445 del grecos.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch expects Roy Harvey Oswalt to shoot more blanks -- 20 units on the Fish to scale the lofty odds. Also, it's Haren go bragh in Texas -- 20 units on the Angels to keep charging.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

LA Dodgers -140

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

703- 525 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one FRI Under 39 Packers/Colts

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Indians -155 over Royals