8-27-11

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NFL NEWS AND NOTES
NFL Preseason Odds: Full Saturday Primer
By Sean Murphy


New York Jets at New York Giants (+2.5, 35)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan was adamant this week that he wants to see more out of his running game against the Giants.

"I'd like to see us be able to establish our run game a little more," Ryan said. "Obviously, this will be a huge test for us going against the Giants defense."

Gang Green will welcome RB Shonn Green and RG Brandon Moore back to the field this week. Both will likely be used sparingly, but the rest of the Jets starters are expected to work into the third quarter after playing the entire first half last week.

Tom Coughlin has indicated that his starters will play most of the first half on Saturday. He’s giving them a bit of a break given that it’s a short week after dismantling the Bears this past Monday night.

Don’t be surprised if both teams hold a little back given they’ll face each other for real on Christmas Eve.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-2.5 36)

The Jaguars will be focused on sharpening their offense after a sloppy performance, albeit a winning one, against the Falcons last week.

"I guess I look at that as our team is tuning up, it's not just David Garrard. It's not any one player,” head coach Jack Del Rio said, “I think as a football team we need to begin to play as a team and play better football and have it all come together for us and with an eye on the opener, yes, no question. But I think just like last week we saw some encouraging signs. I think this week we need to see more of them throughout our football team in all three phases."

Jacksonville’s first unit is expected to see action into the third quarter this week. Blaine Gabbert will once again take the majority of the snaps with the second-team offense after starter David Garrard exits.

Bills head coach Chan Gailey has been fairly tight-lipped when it comes to playing time here in the preseason. He has stated that Fred Jackson will be the team’s starter at running back, and has also hinted that his first-unit will see more action than they have in the last two weeks, but that’s it.

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen will once again share duties under center after a lackluster effort in Denver last Saturday.


Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 36)

Off to an 0-2 start, Atlanta will give its starters their most extensive action of the preseason on Saturday in Pittsburgh.

“In terms of the amount of snaps that they are going to play, I don’t know that we’ve sat down and decided,” head coach Mike Smith said. “But we want to keep those (starting) units in there and get them as many exposures as possible.”

After not game-planning for either of their first two matchups, the Falcons will be hitting the film room for this week’s game.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin isn’t downplaying the importance of the third preseason game, particularly for guys fighting for roster spots. His starters are expected to play into the third quarter, but Tomlin has yet to decide on how his QB rotation will shake down after Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich. Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon both remain on the roster.


Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 36.5)

The Dolphins offense is off to a fast start, scoring 48 points in back-to-back wins over the Falcons and Panthers.

That doesn’t mean they’ll be easing off the gas on Saturday, however. Miami starters are likely to play into the third quarter against the Bucs. Starting QB Chad Henne threw 24 passes last week, and should see another heavy workload this week.

The Bucs were embarrassed by the Patriots on their own home turf last week, but they remain confident heading into Saturday’s showdown with the Dolphins.

Raheem Morris hasn’t officially stated how long his starters will play, but WR Mike Williams has hinted that they’ll see at least a half of action.

"We get to play more plays this week, at least the whole first half,'' Williams said. “The last game, we knew we were on limited reps. It was hard getting into a rhythm, knowing you only had 12 or 13 plays.''


Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (+3, 35.5)

The Texans have been one of the league’s most impressive teams so far this preseason. Their offense lit up Reliant Stadium last Saturday, and they’ll get a chance to do the same in San Francisco this week, as Matt Schaub and the rest of their starters are likely to play into the third quarter.

That leaves the bulk of the second half snaps to backup QB Matt Leinart.

49ers first year head coach Jim Harbaugh isn’t a believer in using the third preseason game as a dress rehearsal for the regular season.

He’ll use his starters sparingly in the first quarter, instead electing to give his backups plenty of time to hone their skills.


New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+4, 44.5)

New England’s starters will see at least a half of action on Saturday. Even after two blowout wins, don’t count on Bellichick to call off the dogs against the Lions.

Lions WR Calvin Johnson returned to practice on Thursday, but remains a game-time decision for Saturday’s game. RB Jahvid Best has been officially ruled out.

If you consider head coach Jim Schwarz’s track record, the rest of the Lions starting unit will likely play into the third quarter. The focus will be on improving defensively after a poor showing in Cleveland last week.


Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-3, 37)

Playing on a short week, and being on the road for a second consecutive game, Bears head coach Lovie Smith will take a cautious approach when it comes to his starters playing time on Saturday. If the first-unit plays into the second half, it will come as a surprise.

With that being said, there’s obviously plenty of work to be done after back-to-back less than impressive performances against the Bills and Giants. If there’s no improvement, there will be plenty of restless fans in the seats at Soldier Field next week.

Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck took a big hit against the Rams last week, but is expected to start Saturday’s game. He and Jake Locker will handle at least the first three quarters against the Bears, with Hasselbeck taking all of the snaps with the first-team offense.


Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1, 37)

The Cowboys will begin the road portion of their preseason schedule in Minnesota on Saturday. We can expect to see plenty from the starters, likely playing into the third quarter.

Head coach Jason Garrett puts a lot of stock in preseason results, so he was understandably upset with last week’s sloppy effort against the Chargers.

"We live in reality," Garrett said. "There were some things that happened that exposed us. There were a number of mental mistakes. We need to play better. There were some good things that happened, but there were a lot of things that need to be addressed."

There’s a heated battle for the number two quarterback spot ongoing in Minnesota. Christian Ponder and Joe Webb are competing, and should see the bulk of the action under center again on Saturday.

Leslie Frazier has been one the conservative side when it comes to starters playing time this preseason. He has indicated that his first-team offenses and defenses will play at least the first quarter on Saturday.


Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-4.5, 37.5)

Pete Carroll says there’s no QB controversy in Seattle.

He continues to back up the play of Tarvaris Jackson, who once again struggled last week, completing 11-of-21 passes for 75 yards. Jackson, along with the rest of the Seahawks starters, will once again play the majority of the first half, and possibly even into the third quarter on Saturday.

The big news out of Broncos camp this week was that Tim Tebow had been dropped to third on the QB depth chart behind Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn.

With that being said, John Fox stated this week that Tebow would see more playing time in at least one of the Broncos final two preseason games.

"Kyle has had 19 passes, Brady's had 30 and Tim's had nine," Fox said. "So in fairness to Tim, we need to get that total up whether that's this week or next week."


San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 40.5)

Philip Rivers and the rest of the Chargers starters played into the second quarter last week, and should see more extensive action here in Week 3.

Norv Turner has traditionally used his first-unit into the third quarter in the third preseason game, and while he hasn’t made it official this week, that remains the expectation.

Billy Volek will spend the majority of the second half under center, with Scott Tolzien possibly getting only a series in mop-up duty.

The Cardinals continue to work on getting Kevin Kolb acclimated with the offense, so no surprise that he’s expected to play the entire first half and a series or two in the third quarter on Saturday.

Playing for only the third time in 17 days, the Cardinals can afford to give their starters a fairly heavy workload.

Arizona signed QB Brodie Croyle this week, waiving former BYU standout Max Hall. That still leaves four quarterbacks on the roster, with Richard Bartel and John Skelton rounding out the quartet.

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BANG THE BOOK

Saturday's Best NFL Bets

New York Jets at New York Giants (+2.5, 35)

The Meadowlands will surely be burning up with animosity on Saturday night, as NFL betting fans from the Empire State and the Garden State will love this clash between their hometown teams, the New York Jets and the New York Giants.

Head Coach Rex Ryan knows that this is a huge game for the psyche of his offense. He is expected to let QB Mark Sanchez quarterback at least through the end of the first half, and likely through the start of the third quarter as well, and he could be in for a big game. Sanchez hooked up with his newest target, WR Plaxico Burress for a TD in last week’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals, and we wouldn’t be shocked if these two did some more damage again this week. Still, this is going to be the last chance to get on the same page with WR Derrick Mason as well, and there are still lingering questions remaining about this offensive line, which hasn’t done all that well with the first teamers out there in the preseason. Do expect to see a lot of time for QB Greg McElroy as well, as he really is progressing nicely here in the preseason and should have his hands wrapped tightly around that second QB job behind Sanchez. McElroy threw for 208 yards and a score against the Houston Texans two weeks ago, and he came back and went 6-of-9 for 59 yards and a TD against the Bengals last week.

Meanwhile, the Giants are going to hope to pick up where they left off last week against the Chicago Bears. They dropped a whopping 41 points on the board and accounted for 380 yards of offense, 97 yards of which came on an electrifying run by RB Da’Rel Scott. RB Brandon Jacobs looks great, as do the other backups on this team, but we are waiting to see a little bit more out of starter RB Ahmad Bradshaw. For as well as the New York offense has played, QB Eli Manning just doesn’t feel like he has quite figured it out yet. He only went 8-of-16 for 78 yards last week against the Bears, and he only threw for 36 yards in the first preseason game as well. Even though Eli already has a ring to his name, we know that he is always under scrutiny in the Big Apple, and especially with one of his former favorite targets, Burress, sitting on the other sideline, there will be plenty of opportunities for the media hounds to make his life a living hell if he doesn’t play up to par against the stout Jets’ defense.

New York Jets @ New York Giants Pick: There’s more on the line here for the Giants than the Jets, and we tend to think that that is going to be the determining factor in this one. Give the boys in blue the slight nod, especially as short underdogs in a game that could be very tight and come down to the wire.

PICK: Giants +2.5


San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 40.5)

The San Diego Chargers were expected to dominate the AFC West last year, but they went just 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The Arizona Cardinals were a disaster last season as they went from quarterback to quarterback looking for someone to give them decent production. Both teams have made some nice pickups in the offseason, but the Chargers are definitely the team with higher expectations. Who will come out on top in this preseason tilt?

How could a team possibly finish first in the NFL in total offense and total defense without making the NFL playoffs? The Chargers managed to do exactly that last season. What was the primary reason? Horrific special teams play absolutely crushed the Chargers on a weekly basis. It’s hard to imagine a special teams unit playing worse than San Diego did last year. Untimely turnovers were a problem for this team last season as well. Vincent Jackson will be back in action this year, and that will be huge for this offense. Phillip Rivers has established himself as one of the NFL’s top five quarterbacks. Ryan Matthews appears to have the stuff to be a star, and the Chargers will need him to stay healthy. Cory Liuget and Takeo Spikes were two big offseason acquisitions for the defense.

Arizona made a big splash when they went out and got Kevin Kolb. Kolb is now firmly entrenched as their starting quarterback. Larry Fitzgerald is still one of the best receivers in the league, and now he has someone who can get him the ball on a consistent basis. Todd Heap is certainly past his prime, but he could the Cardinals offense as well. Arizona absolutely needs a big season from running back Chris Wells. Wells has a lot of potential, but he has yet to realize that potential in the NFL. The biggest problem for the Cardinals offense will likely be the offensive line. This is a unit that has been dominated for the last couple years. If they don’t improve this season, the Cardinals will likely struggle offensively once again. Arizona drafted Patrick Peterson, who I think could turn out to be the best player in this year’s draft. This Cardinals defense isn’t that bad, but they need the offense to pick up some first downs and keep them off the field more often.

Both of these teams are 1-1 in the preseason thus far. Week three of the preseason is typically the week where most teams keep their starters in the longest. Since we’ll likely see the first teamers for quite a while here, I like the Chargers to cover the spread.

PICK: Chargers -3

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Today's NFL Picks
Dallas at Minnesota

The Cowboys look to bounce back from their 20-7 loss to San Diego last week as they travel to Minnesota tonight. Dallas is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Cowboys favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-1). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 27
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (8/26)

Game 261-262: NY Jets at NY Giants (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 123.375; NY Giants 118.706
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2 1/2); Over

Game 263-264: Jacksonville at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 118.477; Buffalo 121.587
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3; 31
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Under

Game 265-266: Atlanta at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.812; Pittsburgh 120.437
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Over

Game 267-268: Miami at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.714; Tampa Bay 124.179
Dunkel Line: Even; 39
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 4; 37
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+4); Over

Game 269-270: New England at Detroit (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 127.525; Detroit 120.329
Dunkel Line: New England by 7; 42
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Under

Game 271-272: Chicago at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.969; Tennessee 121.176
Dunkel Line: Even; 39
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Over

Game 273-274: Dallas at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.097; Minnesota 118.142
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 3; 34
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 37
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-1); Under

Game 275-276: Houston at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 125.672; San Francisco 120.239
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 38
Vegas Line: Houston by 3; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3); Over

Game 277-278: Seattle at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 119.327; Denver 126.402
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7; 36
Vegas Line: Denver by 4; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4); Under

Game 279-280: San Diego at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 128.320; Arizona 122.672
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3); Under

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Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Bears +3 over Titans

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Arthur Ralph Sports

703- 526 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Sat: Jacksonville + 2 1/2

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GoodFella

NFLX
1.5 UNITS on the JETS/GIANTS UNDER 36.5
2 UNITS on the TEXANS -2.5

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WUNDERDOG (NFLX)

Game: New England at Detroit (Saturday 8/27 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total OVER 44 -110

Bill Belichick marches to the beat of a different drummer. He is not concerned about what the other team does. He has an agenda, and his teams have a tendency to execute it to perfection. The Patriots were on the offensive all of last year, and have picked up right where they left off, averaging 39 points per game in their first two preseason outings. This isn't out of the ordinary as Belichick and his coveted Patriots have averaged 28.5 ppg in their last 10 preseason games. In those games, the average points scored has topped 48. The Lions finally have a healthy QB and some solid weapons on offense, and haven't been shy in showing them off as they averaged 31 ppg in their first two games. Going back to last year, their average has been over 30 ppg in their last five, with all five games playing OVER. This one looks like a shootout in Motown, so the OVER gets the call.

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Cappers Access
Jets -2-
Bears +3
Yankees(RL) -1.5

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CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL Betting Notes: Alouettes-Stampeders Preview
By David Schwab


Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders (-1) Over/Under (55)

In a matchup of two of the best teams in the league, they each come into this game with identical 5-2 records SU and 4-3 records ATS. Montreal is 2-1 both SU and ATS on the road this season and Calgary is 1-2 SU and ATS in three home games.

These two split their two-game series last season with each winning at home. The Stampeders rolled over Montreal 46-21 in early October as three-point favorites and just 10 days later, the Alouettes flipped the script with a 46-19 romp as 3½-point favorites. The total went ‘over’ in both of these games.

This series has remained tight over the past few seasons with each team winning five of 10 SU. The Alouettes have won three of the last four meetings SU and ATS overall, but the series is tied at two games apiece both SU and ATS in the last four meetings in Calgary. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of the last six games overall and in the last four at McMahon Stadium. Montreal running back Brandon Whitaker leads the CFL with 566 yards rushing on 85 carries. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo is second in passing yards with 2,095, but has just 55 more yards than Calgary quarterback Henry Burris.

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CANADIAN BACON

Saturday's Best CFL Bet

Montreal Alouettes at Calgary Stampeders (-1, +55)

You can’t get better a coaching matchup in the CFL than the Als’ Marc Trestman trying to outwit Stamps coach John Hufnagel. And you can’t find better QB matchup than Anthony Calvillo vs. Henry Burris.

Both teams are coming off a bye week which only makes all of this more exciting. MLB Juwan Simpson is back after nursing a knee injury but DB Brandon Isaac is doubtful and could be replaced by Milt Collins.

The Alouettes are now rolling in full gear and their defense was merciless two weeks ago against the Eskimos. It won’t be any different even in the hostile environment of Calgary.

Expect Montreal RB Brandon Whitaker to challenge the Stampeders’ run defense Calgary focusing in on stopping the Als’ passing attack.

PICK: Montreal

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Today's CFL Picks
Montreal at Calgary

The Stampeders look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 August games. Calgary is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Stampeders favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-1). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 27
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (8/23)

Game 493-494: Montreal at Calgary (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 116.673; Calgary 118.638
Dunkel Line: Calgary by 2; 51
Vegas Line: Calgary by 1; 55
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-1); Under

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WNBA NEWS AND NOTES
WNBA: Dream - Fever Preview
By Associated Press


Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever (-5.5, 157.5)

The Atlanta Dream created some breathing room in the Eastern Conference playoff race with a key win their last time out.

Atlanta's path to the postseason, however, could prove treacherous with three of its remaining seven games coming against the East-leading Indiana Fever.

Two of those come in a vital home-and-home series that begins Saturday night when the Dream visit Conseco Fieldhouse.

Angel McCoughtry put Atlanta (14-13) up for good on a pair of free throws with 2.5 seconds remaining Tuesday as the Dream defeated Chicago 83-80. The victory created further separation between themselves and the fifth-place Sky for the final playoff spot in the conference.

"This game was definitely huge. But we know that every single one is important," coach Marynell Meadors said. "The opportunity is there we just need to secure our position."

Atlanta could find itself in the postseason for a third consecutive year if McCoughtry, who ranks among the league leaders with an average of 20.5 points, continues to excel. The All-Star forward scored 22 on Tuesday and will be looking for a season-best fifth consecutive 20-point effort.

"Everybody says all of the attention is on me but it's really about teammates. They get me open and get rebounds," McCoughtry said. "I need to lead my team and keep my composure. I'm an emotional player but I want to show all of my toughness and help build my team up through adversity. That's what I really want to do."

McCoughtry's teammates stepped up during an 84-74 win over Indiana (19-8) on July 19. Lindsey Harding scored 19 and Erika de Souza had 15 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks to pick up McCoughtry, who was held to 15 points and shot 5 of 14.

The Dream, however, will likely need McCoughtry at her best Saturday, as the home team has won the last nine games in this series. Indiana is 12-2 at Conseco and has won five straight there by an average of 21.0 points.

Tamika Catchings scored 13 points and Katie Douglas snapped out of her recent funk with 15 as the Fever defeated Washington 83-51 on Sunday. Douglas had averaged 6.0 points over her previous three games - 6.8 less than her season mark.

"You're just going to have up and down moments and thankfully I was able to get on track tonight," said Douglas, who also struggled against Atlanta last month, scoring four points and going 1 of 8 from the field.

"I was just happy we were able to have such a big win and I think we were doing some great things on the defensive end and on the offensive end. When we start playing well on both ends of the floor, we're a hard team to beat."

Indiana, holding opponents to a conference-best 71.3 points per game, is battling Minnesota for the top overall seed in the playoffs.

The Fever and Dream conclude their home-and-home set Tuesday night at Philips Arena. The teams close out the season Sept. 11 with a matchup at Indiana.

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LADY LUCK

Saturday's Best WNBA Bets

Atlanta Dream at Indiana Fever (-5.5, 157.5)

Whether Angel McCoughtry likes it or not, she’s the key to the Atlanta Dream’s success every time they take the court.

McCoughtry averages 20.5 points and 2.5 steals per game to pace the club and has managed at least 20 points in four straight games, helping the club to three wins over that stretch.

"Everybody says all of the attention is on me but it's really about teammates. They get me open and get rebounds," McCoughtry said. "I need to lead my team and keep my composure. I'm an emotional player but I want to show all of my toughness and help build my team up through adversity. That's what I really want to do."

If Atlanta’s going to punch its postseason ticket, it’ll have to keep beating up on the East-leading Fever. Three of the Dream’s last seven games are against Indiana and the Dream have covered in nine of their last 10 matchups with Indiana overall.

The Dream had four players score in double figures in an 84-74 win over the Fever last month, helping Atlanta bettors to the pay window as a 2.5-point home underdog.

We like the Dream to at least keep this one close.

PICK: Atlanta

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Indiana
The Dream look to build on their 9-1 ATS record in the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Atlanta is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Fever favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST
Game 601-602: Atlanta at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 113.619; Indiana 115.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 162
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 158
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+4 1/2); Over