8-27-11

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HOT LINES

Saturday's Best MLB Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (-225, 7.5)

Chris Carpenter needs a little help from his offense. Despite allowing just seven runs over his last four starts, the Cardinals are 2-2 over that stretch.

The last time he was on the hill, the veteran was mowing down Dodgers up until the ninth inning. St. Louis had a 1-0 lead and Carpenter had chalked up seven strikeouts before he hit the leadoff batter in the ninth and was promptly pulled by manager Tony LaRussa.

The bullpen came on and allowed the Dodgers to complete a 2-1 comeback victory.

"It's a tough one, no question," Carpenter told reporters after the game. "Absolutely. Tough loss. We had a chance to start a nice homestand and we weren't able to pull it off."

Luckily for Cardinals bettors, the veteran righty has owned the Pirates over his career. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 matchups with Pittsburgh with Carpenter on the hill.

At this price, we won’t bother with a St. Louis bet, but the under looks tasty.

PICK: Under


Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-200, 8)

It’s pretty hard to bet against the Brewers these days. They had won 24 of their last 29 games heading into Friday night’s action, opening up a huge 9.5-game lead over the second-place Cardinals in the NL Central.

Their bats have been booming and their pitching staff looks primed to push the team to a long playoff run.

But you might want to look at the underdog Cubs on Saturday.

Chicago sends Ryan Dempster to the hill and in another lost year for Cubs bettors, he has been one bright spot. Chicago is 16-11 in his starts this season and he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six outings.

Call us crazy, but we like the value here.

PICK: Cubs

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MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Florida Marlins Face Roy Halladay, Phillies
By: Jeff Grant


Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (N/A)

The Florida Marlins will be in the eye of a hurricane Saturday in playing a doubleheader against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Game 1 will begin at 10:05 a.m. (PT) and the nightcap’s first pitch is expected at 4:05 p.m.

Hurricane Irene is expected to pound the Eastern seaboard over the weekend and has caused league officials to schedule three twinbills across the majors.

Philadelphia is likely to extend its current six-game lead in the National League East standings, winning five of six home meetings over Florida, including a four-game sweep from June 14-16. The Phillies outscored the Marlins by a 25-6 margin in that set.

Roy Halladay (15-5, 2.56 ERA) has been a destructive force to opposing teams the entire season and will be looking to improve upon his 8-2 record and 2.32 ERA in 14 home starts. He has issued just eight free passes and registered 102 strikeouts in 104 2/3 innings.

The right-hander will be making his 13th daytime appearance of the 2011 campaign, producing a 9-1 mark and 2.38 ERA. He will enter the contest with a dominating 71-28 record and 3.26 ERA in 131 career appearances (124 starts) under the sun.

Halladay has garnered a winning 4-3 mark and 2.47 ERA in nine lifetime starts versus the Marlins, including a 5-4 no-decision effort on this mound on June 15 (7 IP, 4 ER). Bettors will definitely need to be aware of the Phillies 21-4 record in Halladay’s last 25 starts versus NL East opponents.

Florida just split a home doubleheader against Cincinnati on Wednesday at Sun Life Stadium and enjoyed a day off before traveling up the coast. The Marlins will be aiming to snap a five-game losing streak on the road. Despite their recent struggles away from home, the Marlins have still compiled a 12-7-2 series mark when playing at an opponents’ venue.

Anibal Sanchez (7-6, 4.01 ERA) will be making his third consecutive road start and brings in a winning 4-3 record and 3.89 ERA in 13 appearances away from South Florida. The right-hander has struggled since the All-Star break, posting a 1-4 record and 5.05 ERA in eight starts compared to a 6-2 mark and 3.58 ERA in 18 starts before the Midsummer Classic.

Sanchez will be facing the Phillies for the 15th time in his career, entering with a 3-7 record and 5.67 ERA, including three no-decision efforts this year. Over those appearances, he has allowed nine runs and 16 hits over 17 innings of work. The 27-year-old will want to pitch carefully to Philadelphia second baseman Chase Utley, who is hitting .484 with seven RBIs in 31 career at-bats against him.

Florida has yet to announce a Game 2 starter. Philadelphia is expected to throw southpaw Cliff Lee, who has won his last five starts, while also bringing in a perfect 2-0 mark and 2.77 ERA in four lifetime outings versus the Marlins.

Weather forecasts suggest showers in the area around 11:00 a.m. (PT) and moving into periods of rain starting later in the afternoon and lasting throughout the weekend. Winds will be blowing out of the east at 10-20 mph.

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Saturday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (19-5, 2.28 ERA)

With a fat slate of Saturday games, there is a lot to choose from and while we try to avoid the obvious at times in this space, we can’t ignore Verlander here. The big righty is looking for his 20th win of the season against the Twins and could become the first Tigers pitcher to reach that mark since Bill Gullickson accomplished the feat in 1991.

Verlander has won his last seven starts, giving up more than three runs only once during the streak.

Ivan Nova, New York Yankees (13-4, 3.97 ERA)

There are a lot of questions about the Yankees’ starting rotation right now, but nobody’s worried about Nova. He has won his last five starts since getting the call to the big club and bounced back from a rotten outing against Kansas City to blank the Twins over seven innings, allowing five hits while striking out five. Having won his last nine decisions overall, he could break Whitey Ford’s team record for most consecutive wins by a rookie on Saturday.


SLUMPING

Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles (1-6, 8.92 ERA)

Matusz has been dreadful on the bump lately, dropping each of his last six outings. He has allowed at least four runs in each of those and is getting hammered by the long ball. The lefty has served up 10 taters during the skid and has struck out only 25 batters compared to 15 walks in 36 1/3 innings of work this season.

Joe Saunders, Arizona Diamondbacks (8-11, 3.98 ERA)

Saunders hasn’t won a decision this month and has allowed 14 runs over his last three trips to the hill. In his last start, he gave four runs over six innings while walking three in a 4-1 loss to the Washington Nationals. The big inning hurt him again in that one.

“He had trouble throwing the ball over the plate,” manager Kirk Gibson told reporters of Saunders. “He pitched pretty good until the seventh and then we kind of fell apart.”

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Hondo

Hondo, who has declared a state of emergency in HondoNation because of his raging sea of debt, lost with the Angels last night but scored big time with the Marlins to lower the NRN (nasty red number) to 2,365 broglios.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will do some Dempster-diving with the Cubs and also bother Harang for some help -- 20 units apiece on the Cubs and Padres.

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Dbacks -155 over Padres

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Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Dbacks -155 over Padres

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Today's MLB Picks
Pittsburgh at St. Louis

The Pirates look to bounce back from last night's 5-4 loss and take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-4 in its last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. Pittsburgh is the pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1 1/2. Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 27
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 903-904: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Millwood) 17.226; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 17.082
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 907-908: Washington at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 14.044; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.492
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Over

Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 14.214; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.462
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-200); Under

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Lincoln) 15.487; St. Louis (Carpenter) 14.198
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-230); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+190); Over

Game 913-914: San Diego at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Harang) 14.398; Arizona (Saunders) 15.984
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-150); Over

Game 915-916: Houston at San Francisco (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Myers) 15.421; San Francisco (Surkamp) 14.220
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 16.336; Toronto (Perez) 14.263
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Under

Game 923-924: Oakland at Boston (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Godfrey) 17.108; Boston (Bedard) 16.317
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 925-926: Detroit at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.590; Minnesota (Pavano) 12.472
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 927-928: Kansas City at Cleveland (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 14.838; Cleveland (Carmona) 13.978
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+140); Over

Game 929-930: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.844; Texas (Wilson) 15.211
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 931-932: Chicago White Sox at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.733; Seattle (Pineda) 15.319
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-110); Under

Game 933-934: Florida at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 13.930; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.454
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-280); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-280); Over

Game 935-936: Oakland at Boston (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Moscoso) 16.222; Boston (Lester) 17.110
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

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Saturday’s Betting Tips: 49ers May Sit Starters Down

Weather To Watch

Hurricane Irene has forced the postponement of Saturday and Sunday’s matchups between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves as well as the New York Giants-New York Jets preseason NFL matchup. The Giants and Jets will play Monday night instead.

Who’s Hot

NFL: The New England Patriots have won their first two preseason games, outscoring their opposition 78-26.

MLB: The Chicago White Sox are 20-8 in their last 28 meetings with Seattle.

WNBA: The Dream have covered the number in nine of their last 10 matchups with the Fever.

CFL: Montreal has covered in three of its last four meetings with Calgary.

Who’s Not

NFL: Jacksonville has allowed 60 points combined in preseason play, the most in the league through two games.

MLB: The under is 3-13-2 in San Diego’s last 18 road games.

WNBA: The under is 0-5-1 in Atlanta’s last six overall.

CFL: The under is 6-14-1 in Calgary’s last 21 contests overall.

Key Stat

1 – Wolves, who sit tied atop the English Premier League table with Manchester United and Man City after winning their first three matches, have just one win in their last 18 meetings with Aston Villa. Wolves are set as +255 underdogs with Aston Villa favored at +105 and the draw at +215 on Saturday.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – Johnson returned to practice Thursday after missing last week’s game with a sore shoulder, but is still considered a game-time decision Saturday against New England. The Lions are set as 4-point home underdogs.

Game Of The Day

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (1, 37)

Notable Quotable

“I know we haven’t talked about (a trade). I don’t see it getting to that level. I just think he is going to be here. It is not like he’s not under contract. If they can’t work something out he has a two-year contract to honor.” – Tennessee head coach Mike Munchak about running back Chris Johnson’s holdout status. The Titans are set as 3-point home favorites Saturday against Chicago.

Tips And Notes

San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh says he’s pretty confident in his first-stringers at this point in camp and will likely take Alex Smith and the starters out of Saturday’s game against Houston early – maybe even after a single series. He left the door open to putting them back in the game for some more plays later on, but it’s clear the backups are his main focus. “The idea of playing some of our twos and threes more in this game is also the way that we’re leaning going into this ball game, not so much the traditional way of playing the starters for three quarters like has been historically done in the third preseason game,” Harbaugh told reporters

If you’re hoping to see a lot of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger Saturday night against Atlanta, you might end up disappointed. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that Pittsburgh plans to use the game to showcase Dennis Dixon, who is currently listed No. 3 on the depth chart behind Big Ben and Charlie Batch. However, Batch isn’t expected to play against the Falcons, so Dixon, who’s in a contract year, could see a lot of snaps. Oddsmakers have the Steelers listed as 3-point home favorites.

Montreal Alouettes outspoken defensive back Dwight Anderson returns to his old stomping ground Saturday as his club visits the Calgary Stampeders. Anderson has been uncharacteristically quiet this week about playing his former team, but that isn’t fooling the Stamps. "He's going to try and give his coaching staff and players a little insight into what we do, having practiced against us for so many years,'' Stamps quarterback Henry Burris told reporters. "Hopefully, we'll have enough wrinkles to throw him off.” Calgary is set as a 1-point home favorite in the battle between the two 5-2 teams.

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Fantasy Sports Gametime

Play Philadelphia (-290) over Florida GAME 1 (Top Play of the Day)

Roy Halladay has won 23 of the last 27 games as a favorite of -200 or higher and he has also won 21 of the last 25 games vs. NL East Division Opponents. Roy Halladay has won 7 of the last 8 games when playing on a Saturday and he is 9-1 in day games this season with an ERA of 2.38.


Play Milwaukee (-200) over Chicago Cubs (Bonus)

Play Boston (-270) over Oakland GAME 1 (Bonus)


50* Play Calgary (-1) over Montreal

Calgary has won 5 of the last 6 games and they have also won 9 of the last 10 home games as a favorite of seven points or less. Calgary has covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 games when the line posted is between +3 to -3 and they are averaging over 33 points a game on offense over the last three games.

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MLB Write Up

Hot pitchers
-- Halladay is 4-1, 2.98 in his last six starts.
-- Karstens is 4-0, 2.27 in his last seven road starts. Carpenter is 2-0, 2.12 in his last four starts.
-- Gallardo is 3-2, 2.57 in his last six starts. Dempster is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts.
-- Detwiler has a 2.89 RA in five starts this season.
-- Harang is 3-0, 4.98 in his last four starts.

-- Lester is 3-2, 2.72 in his last six starts. Moscoso is 2-1, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Niemann is 4-1, 2.61 in his last five starts. Perez shut the A's out for six innings in his first 2011 start.
-- Verlander is 7-0, 2.56 in his last seven starts.
-- Carmona is 1-0, 1.88 in his last couple starts.
-- Santana is 5-1, 1.99 in his last seven starts. Wilson is 3-0, 1.37 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Sanchez is 1-3, 6.00 in his last five starts.
-- Billingsley is 1-2, 5.87 in his last five starts. Millwood is 1-1, 4.50 in three starts for Colorado.
-- Leake is 1-2, 5.33 in his last four starts.
-- Saunders is 0-3, 7.04 in his last four starts.
-- Myers is 0-7, 5.91 in his last eleven starts. Surkamp was 10-4, 2.02 in 22 starts in the AA Eastern League; this is his big league debut.

-- Bedard is 0-3, 4.91 in four starts for Boston. Godfrey is 1-1, 5.82 in three starts this year, last of which was June 23.
-- Pavano is 0-4, 6.29 in his last seven starts.
-- Duffy is 0-4, 8.03 in his last five starts.
-- Danks is 1-3, 6.27 in his last six road starts. Pineda is 1-2, 5.88 in his last seven starts.

Totals
-- Over is 10-2 in Phillies' last twelve home games.
-- Under is 9-2 in Washington's last eleven road games.
-- Last seven games at Miller Park stayed under the total.
-- Over is 8-2 in Cardinals' last ten home games.
-- 12 of San Diego's last 16 road games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Dodgers' last ten home games.
-- Seven of Giants' last nine home games stayed under total.

-- Over is 9-2-1 in last twelve Bronx games.
-- Over is 6-3 in Toronto's last nine home games.
-- Five of Cleveland's last seven games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-1-1 in Oakland's last eleven road games.
-- Six of Angels' last seven road games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-3-2 in Detroit's last fifteen road games.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven games at Safeco Field.

Hot Teams
-- Phillies won four of their last six home games.
-- Reds won five of their last six home games.
-- Milwaukee won 19 of its last 22 home games.
-- Padres won five of their last seven games. Arizona won last four games, allowing total of three runs.
-- Colorado won five of its last six games. Dodgers won six of their last eight games.

-- Orioles won their last five games, outscoring foes 36-9.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last ten games.
-- Red Sox won six of their last nine games. Oakland won seven of its last ten games, scoring 36 runs in their last four.
-- Angels won six of their last seven games.
-- Tigers won seven of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Nationals lost their last four games, outscored 18-6.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last 11 games. Pirates lost seven of ten.
-- Giants lost seven of their last eleven games. Astros lost five of six. .

-- Toronto is 5-7 in its last twelve home games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost three of their last four games.
-- Cleveland lost six of its last eight games. Royals lost eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Twins lost their last six games, outscored 35-5.
-- Seattle lost seven of its last ten games. White Sox are 3-5 in their last eight games.

Umpires
-- Fla-Phil-- Underdogs are 9-5 in last fourteen O'Nora games.
-- Atl-NY-- PPD rain
-- Colo-LA-- Road team won the last six Knight games.
-- Pitt-StL-- Favorites won eight of last nine TWelke games.
-- Chi-Mil-- Six of last nine Hallion games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Cin-- Over is 8-3 in last eleven West games.
-- SD-Az-- Underdogs are 9-4 in last thirteen Carlson games.
-- Hst-SF-- Over is 12-7 in last nineteen Randazzo games.

-- A's-Bos-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Hudson games.
-- NY-Balt-- PPD rain
-- TB-Tor-- Home team won seven of last nine Tschida games.
-- Det-Min-- Last four Dreckman games stayed under the total.
-- KC-Clev-- Visitor won seven of last eight Estabrook games.
-- LA-Tex-- Under is 9-2 in last eleven Cousins games.
-- Chi-Sea-- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Eddings games.

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David Banks
Mon 0 - 1
Tue 1 - 0
Wed 1 - 0
Thu 0 - 1
Fri 1 - 0
New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
A pair of undefeated teams are all set to go under the CBS National spotlight on Saturday night when Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots invade the Motor City to lock horns with the upstart Detroit Lions; kick-off from Ford Field is scheduled for 8:00 ET.
Has there been a more impressive team in the preseason than the defending AFC East champion New England Patriots? Without QB Tom Brady even taking a snap in their Week 1 opener, the Pats made a mockery of their contest with Jacksonville racking up a total of 476 yards en route to smashing the Jaguars 47-12. Then last week, Brady got his first live game action in and led New England to a pair of scoring drives; he finished up throwing for 118 yards and two TD passes. Former LSU standout Stevan Ridley has shined thus far rumbling for 148 yards and three tuddies the L/2 weeks.
Not to be outdone by tonight’s opponent, the Lions have lit the scoreboard up en route to covering their first two games of the exhibition season. Quite like New England did in Week 1, Detroit simply took advantage of a Cincinnati outfit with numerous holes en route to blowing the Bengals out 34-3. They then followed it up with an impressive come from behind 30-28 outright road win and cover as 2.5-point dogs at Cleveland last week. Matthew Stafford has completed 71 percent of his passes for 156 yards and three TDs thus far, with backups Drew Stanton, Shaun Hill and Zac Robinson all taking care of business when getting their reps in.
Patriots HC Bill Belichick enters Saturday night’s tussle having won 56.7 percent of his preseason games coached and covered the spread at a 35-26-6 ATS clip. New England is 4-1 SU but just 2-2-1 ATS its L/5 preseason road battles. Detroit is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in preseason home games played under the HC Jim Schwartz regime. Overall, the Lions are 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS under his watch in the exhibition season, as well as a perfect 2-0 SU & against the closing number in the preseason versus AFC East opposition.
PICK: Patriots/Lions OVER

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EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Blue Jays (+107),
Twins (+181),
Royals (+149),
Rangers (0).

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Paul Leiner

250* Rays -120

NFLX

100* Dolphins +3.5
50* Jets -2.5

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Defeat Your Bookie

Jhonny Palumbo

3* OVER 8.5 - A´s / Red Sox

Mat Earlson

6* Tampa Bay Rays ML -120

2* Kansas City Royals ML +150

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Pro Tech Sports

MLB - 5* Colorado +126

NFL - 10* San Diego -2.5

NFL - 5* Pittsburgh -3

NFL - 5* Miami +3