8-27-11

[timbob]

DAQsports
08/27/11

Yesterday: (0-1) -100 units, AUGUST: (61-38) +401 units

Today's selections:

MONEYLINE:
Tigers -193,
White Sox -104,
Cardinals -230,
Brewers -185

[timbob]

wunderdog

Game: Oakland at Boston (12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland +235 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 4.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 8.5 -105 (risk 3 to win 2.9)

The Oakland A's are playing what could be their best baseball of the season. They did get embarrassed by the Yankees in their series finale allowing 22 runs, but still managed to win their first series in the Bronx since 2007. They now are in Boston, where they laid one on the Sox last night by a 15-5 score. The A's may be 25-41 on the road this season, but over their last nine vs. winning teams they are 7-2. Guillermo Moscoso has pitched as good as Jon Lester with an ERA of 3.28 which is quite comparable to that of Lester's 3.16 ERA for the season. Moscoso doesn't carry the same clout as Lester but he has matched him pitch for pitch, indicating a tight and low-scoring game. Couple that with the A's playing their best road baseball of the season and they are truly under-valued here. The Red Sox have played six straight UNDER as a chalk of -201 or higher, and behind Lester they are 37-18-4 if they allowed 5+ runs in their previous game, and have now gone 11 straight without going over the total when Lester pitches on grass. Take Oakland and play on the UNDER in game one.
Game: Oakland at Boston (5:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Oakland +230 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 4.6)

The Red Sox are apt to start players that normally don't start, to rest a few everyday players in the second game of a doubleheader. Oakland has been a poor road team all season, but right now are playing better than they have on the road in a few years. They just took two out of three against the Yankees where they hadn't won a series since 2007, and have a leg up on Boston taking the first game in a 15-5 laugher. They are 25-41 on the road this season, but have now gone 7-2 in their last nine on the road vs. a winning team - all played this month. They have now won four straight on the road vs. left-hand pitching, and the Sox likely to rest starters in game two, has resulted in them going 1-4 in their last five in the second game of a doubleheader. Take Oakland in GAME 2.

1-5 -12.1* Fri. (Season 331-336-5 -71.5*)

[timbob]

VIKING SPORTS


3* San Francisco 49ers +3
2* Miami Dolphins +4'
2* Arizona Cardinals +3

[timbob]

PhD Picks

Cleveland -149
Cincinnati -147
Texas -153

[timbob]

JEFF SCOTT SPORTS

4 UNIT PLAY
BOSTON -1.5 (-125) Over Oakland: Well you have to feel that the Sox will be pumped up for this one, after getting destroyed last night by the A's. The A's are just 12-29 in their last 41 games in boston and they are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a dog of 201 or greater, plus they are 0-4 in their last 4 games 1 of a doubleheader. Boston is 22—3 in Lester's last 25 games a s a favorite of 201+, and they are 44-16 in his last 60 home starts overall. Normally the Sox do well in home games with Lester on the mound, but they are just 5-5 this this. They are 4-1 vs the RL in his 5 team home wins this year and in his 4 team wins vs the A's. In his career, they are 4-0 vs the RL. Let's also note the Lester is 6-0 with a 1.55 ERA in day games and the Sox have outscored their opponents by 4.63 rpg in those games. Guillermo Moscoso is just 2-5 with a 3.80 ERA on the road, while in his last 3 starts on the road he is 1-2 with a 5.82 ERA. Boston is clearly the better team here, with the much better starter and they have the added motivation of being blown out last night, so I look for them to return the favor today.

3 UNIT PLAYS
Boston/Oakland over 8.5: The Over Machine known as the the Oakland A's rolls on. The Over is 34-12-5 in their last 51 games overall and 25-4-4 in their last 33 games on grass, plus 16-3-2 in their last 21 road games. For the Sox the Over is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games at home vs a team wityh a road winning pct of less than .400, plus the Over is now 10-0-1 in the last 11 meetings between these teams in Boston. After getting blown out last night by 10 runs you might actually see this Boston team get the Over on their own. Boston comes in averaging 5.86 rpg and hitting .276 in their last 10 games. They also score 5.56 rpg and hit .293 at home. The A'zs offense is back on track as they have averaged 5.7 r5pg and have hit .267 over their last 10 games, plus in 4 games played here this year they have put up 8 rpg. They have scored just 3.92 rpg on the road this year, but in their last 17 away from home they have averaged 6.11 rpg. Neither pitcher has given up much of late, but I see the offenses (especially Boston's) taking control of this game and giving us 10+ runs.

POWER ANGLE PLAY
Chicago -102 over SEATTLE: The Sox are still in the playoff race (barely), so I expect them to be fully focused in this one as they know they can't absorb too many losses the rest of the way and still expect to make the playoffs. John Danks gets the ball for the Sox today and he has has been solid of late, going 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA in his last 10 starts. He has struggled on the road overall this year, but in his last 3 away starts he has gone 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA. John has also pitched well vs Seattle, as he is n5-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 10 career starts vs them, while in 5 starts at Safeco he is 2-2 with a very nice 2.29 ERA The Mariners are a team that struggles to score tuns at home as they have averaged just 3.26 rpg at Safco and they have hit lefties at just .236 at home as well. The Sox offense does score 4.14 rpg ion the road and in their last 10 games they have averaged 4.2 rpg. Ok not great numbers, but they will be taking on a struggling Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with an ERA of 7.94 in his last 7 starts. He has pitched well at home this year, but in his last 3 home starts he is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA. The Sox still have something to play for and behind Danks they will make sure they don't fall any further behind in the AL Central race. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The Chicago White Sox are 17-3 since June of 2009 as a dog when they won by 1 run in their starters last start and that starter had a WHIP of at least 0.75 in that start.

2 UNIT PLAY
Cincinnati/ Washington Under 9: Ross Detwiler has been solid in his last 5 starts for the Nats this year with a solid 2.63 ERA. Overall this Nationals staff has done well of late with a 2.79 ERA in their last 10 games and they should be able to hold down a Reds offense that has put up 4.6 rpg in their last 10 games. Mike Leake does not come in in great form, with a 5.12 Era in his last 3 starts, but in his last 3 at home he has a 2.25 ERA and in 3 career starts vs the Nats he has a 3.00 ERA. Mike will be facing a Nats offense that comes in averaging just .247 and scoring just 2.7 rpg in their last 10 games. I think that the pitching in this one will keep the score down, plus we note that the Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Reply With Quote
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Today 08:54 AM

[timbob]

RICHIE CARRERA

Detroit -200 over MINNESOTA 5 Dimes (Risk 10)

We are laying some serious 2 to 1 on the road, but with the way that Justin Verlander is slinging it, there is little doubt that we will come away on the right side of this one. Hurricane Irene knocked out my other potential play today.

[timbob]

JOHN CHANG

---Start Time 7:10 PM EST---
Chicago Cubs (+175, list Dempster) over MILWAUKEE BREWERS, 5 dimes
Even with the the momentum clearly on the side of Milwaukee, the Cubbies are in a decent spot to steal a win, especially with Dempster heading to the bump. It all comes down to the situation and the value, and I like both in this spot.

---Start Time 4:10 PM EST---
ST LOUIS CARDINALS -1.5 (-110) over Pittsburgh Pirates, 5 dimes
The Buccos season is lost, and they probably won't have too much spring in their step during this 3rd game of a four game stretch with the Cards at Busch. St. Louis has already taken the first two games, and now they are sending the nearly unhittable Chris Carpenter to the hill. Carpenter has been throwing gems lately, and he's got a seriously effective record against the Buccos in his career. I expect a comfortable win for the home team.

---Start Time 4:10 PM EST---
Detroit Tigers/MINNESOTA TWINS under 7.5 runs, 5 dimes
One soon-to-be legendary pitcher. One effective pitcher. Two teams showing a trend of going under the total over the past week. A Minnesota Club that is averaging under 1 run over the last 6 games. Sounds like a nice recipe for the under.

[timbob]

RANDY BRUCE

MLB: *5 dimes each
Tampa Rays ML -120
Chicago White Sox ML -110

[timbob]

JACK HOWARD

MLB:

San Diego/Arizona Under 9.5(+100) 5 Dimes

Oakland(+240) Over Boston 5 Dimes

Pittsburgh/St. Louis Over 7.5(-110) 10 Dimes

[timbob]

PLS Team

Arizona / San Diego Over 40.5

Detroit / New England Over 44.5

Houston / San Francisco Over 36

Tennessee / Chicago Under 37

[timbob]

Jim Feist - Jim Feist's Preseason Game of the Year - Saturday!

(277) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (+6.0, ov36.5)
(278) DENVER BRONCOS (-6.0, un36.5)
Saturday, Aug 27 2011, 06:00 PM PST

Preseason Game of the Year: Denver Broncos.
Seattle has a lot of problems under Coach Pete Carroll. With Matt Hassellbeck gone, QB Tarvaris Jackson is the starter, Charlie Whitehurst the backup -- two guys they overpaid for in money and draft picks. They have problems on the offensive line and have not played well: The starters fell behind the Chargers 10-0 at the half, then last week they laid an egg at home in a 20-7 loss to Minnesota. Seattle is 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS in preseason under Carroll. They run into a Denver (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) team that has a new coach in John Fox, the former Carolina coach. New coaches want to play well at home and Denver did last week, winning by 14 points. The QB rotation is experienced/versatile, with QB Kyle Orton the starter and Brady Quinn. The Broncos starting offense and defense will play into the third quarter Saturday against Seattle. This is the second straight home game for Denver and they looked sharp last week, a 24-10 win over Buffalo, leading 24-3 in the third with Quinn and Orton completing 20 of 29 passes for 265 yards, 2 TDs and no picks. The home team holds all the cards against the thin and disorganized visitors. Play the Broncos!

[timbob]

Harry Bondi

NFL PRESEASON
TAMPA BAY (-3.5) over Miami
7:30 p.m. EST

The Dolphins are off to a 2-0 start and will come into this game with "a little shit in their necks" as they have been reading and hearing about how good they have looked in the early going of the preseason. That's exactly the type of team you want to "go against" in the preseason, especially with a team that's as marginal as Miami. Tampa Bay ran into a buzz-saw last week and got embarrassed in front on the home crowd when it got manhandled by a New England team that was clicking on all cylinders. Look for the Bucs to try and make amends for that loss tonight at home as QB Josh Freeman welcomes back two of his best weapons -- Arrelious Benn and Kellen Winslow -- both of whom sat out the first two preseason games. The defense also welcomes back starting cornerback Aqib Talib. Lay the short number with the Bucs.

[timbob]

Tony Bravo

5* Detroit Tigers
St. Louis Cardinals
Texas Rangers

[mikefortino]

ATS

ATS

12-Denver
5-OVER 44.5 New England/Detroit
4-Dallas

[timbob]

ATS LOCK

12-Denver -4 ov Seattle 9:00
5-OVER 44.5 New England/Detroit 8:00
4-Dallas -1 ov Minnesota 8:00

5-Tampa Bay even ov Toronto 1:05
4-Cincinnati -135 ov Washington 7:10