8-29-11

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Monday

Play San Francisco (-235) over Chicago Cubs (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 10:15 PM EST

Chicago has lost 6 of the last 8 games and they have also lost 20 of the last 23 road games as an underdog of +150 or higher. Randy Wells has lost 8 of the last 9 road games when the total posted is 7.5 runs or less and he has an ERA of 6.43 in road games this season.

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Play Chicago White Sox (-190) over Minnesota (Bonus)

Play Arizona (-165) over Colorado (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 9 runs bet. the White Sox and Twins

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Monday, August 29

Hot pitchers
-- Hamels was 2-2, 2.27 in his last five starts before going on the DL. Bailey is 1-0, 3.32 in his last three starts.
-- Kershaw is 5-0, 1.11 in his last five home starts. Latos has a 2.73 RA in his last five starts.
-- Lincecum is 6-3, 1.17 in his last nine starts. Wells is 2-0, 3.38 in his last three starts.

-- McCarthy is 5-1, 4.15 in his last six starts.
-- Scherzer is 2-0, 3.79 in his last three starts.
-- Romero is 3-0, 1.37 in his last three starts. Tampa Bay won last five Davis starts (0-0, 2.25 in last two), scoring 31 runs.
-- FGarcia was 3-0, 2.13 in his last four starts before going on DL.

Cold pitchers
-- Nolasco is 3-3, 7.04 in his last seven starts. Sanchez is 1-3, 5.82 in his last six starts. Gee is 2-2, 6.75 in his last six starts. Dickey is 0-3, 4.18 in his last five starts.
-- WRodriguez is 2-2, 4.65 in his last five starts. Ohlendorf is 0-1, 8.04 in his three starts this season.
-- DHudson is 2-2, 5.96 in his last four starts. White allowed five runs in six IP in his first major league start.

-- Huff is 0-2, 5.54 in his last three starts.
-- Royals lost last three Hochevar starts (0-2, 6.00).
-- Simon is 1-2, 6.46 in his last four starts.
-- Slowey is 0-2, 8.76 in three starts this season. Buehrle is 1-1, 4.64 in his last three starts.
-- Pineiro is 0-3, 13.04 in his last five starts. Beaven is 0-2, 7.27 in his last three outings.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Sanchez starts went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Bailey starts went over the total.
-- Six of last nine WRodriguez starts went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3 in DHudson's last eleven starts.
-- 12 of San Diego's last 17 road games went over the total. Over is 7-3-1 in Dodgers' last eleven home games.
-- Eight of Giants' last ten home games stayed under total.

-- Over is 9-2-1 in last twelve Bronx games.
-- Over is 7-3 in Toronto's last ten home games.
-- Six of Cleveland's last eight games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in last dozen Buehrle starts.
-- Under is 10-4-2 in Detroit's last sixteen road games.
-- Seven of Angels' last eight road games went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Reds won seven of their last eight home games.
-- Arizona won last six games, allowing total of five runs. Colorado won six of its last eight games.
-- Dodgers won seven of their last ten games.

-- Oakland lost three of its last four games.
-- Orioles won six of their last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay won nine of its last twelve games.
-- Angels won seven of their last nine games.
-- Tigers won eight of their last ten games.
-- White Sox won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost 10 of their last 13 games. Mets lost five of seven.
-- Phillies are just 5-5 in their last ten games.
-- Pirates lost eight of their last 12 games. Astros lost six of their last eight games.
-- Padres lost their last four games, scoring three runs.
-- Giants are 5-8 in their last 13 games. Cubs lost seven of their last eight games.

-- Toronto is 5-9 in its last fourteen home games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost four of their last six games.
-- Cleveland lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Royals are 4-9 in their last thirteen road games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Seattle lost nine of its last twelve games.

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO

FUTURES PREDICTIONS

7-Unit Play. Take Chicago Bears 'Under' 8.5 Wins
This is my top futures play and I love the situation here. Chicago was in the NFC Championship Game last year - out of nowhere - and I think that they are going to come back down to earth in a big way this year. If you look back over the last several years the NFC Championship Game loser has suffered a fate similar to the Super Bowl loser - a disappointing follow-up season. Over the last six seasons only one team (2009 Philadelphia Eagles) finished over .500 the year after losing in the NFC Title Game. Last year Minnesota went 6-10 after being on the doorstep of the Super Bowl. In 2008 Green Bay went 6-10 after losing to the Giants at home in the title game the year before. In 2007 New Orleans went 7-9. In 2006 and 2005 Carolina and Atlanta both went 8-8. There are a lot of reasons for that hangover: a tougher schedule, heightened expectations, and a lingering mental hangover from getting close-but-not-close enough (especially when the championship game loss was a home loss). But whatever the factor, the hangover effect is real.
But that is just a historical trend. This year there are some things very specific to this Bears team that make me think they are in for some disappointment. The first is the fact that I don't feel like they improved themselves in this truncated offseason. A lot of other teams in the NFC - New Orleans, Philadelphia, St. Louis - got better through free agency and Chicago's chief rival, Green Bay, may have gotten better just by getting injured players back. The Bears are significantly weaker than the team that was, to be honest, just ?pretty good? last season. Chicago's offensive line is a disaster. That is going to continue to hamper an offense that was ranked in the 20's in the NFL last year. And what's worse (or better for us) is that if Jay Cutler continues to get pounded he is going to get injured (see: NFC Championship Game). Chicago doesn't have a veteran backup so we are just one Ndamakong Suh mauling away from seeing Caleb Hanie. Their receivers are still very suspect and on the whole this offense just doesn't have a good vibe. Defensively, they are still very sound. But guys like Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers are not as young as they once were. Pair that with a good-but-not-great secondary and there are some holes in this unit. They are still very good defensively, but not as much of a scoring/turnover/attacking threat that they were around 2005 and 2006 when they could literally win games by themselves. And I don't think they are good enough to make up for their lackluster offense. Not two years in a row.

Next, there are several statistical indicators that point to a regression for this team. First, over the past decade only about half of the teams that made the playoffs the year before make it the following season. I think Chicago is one of the teams on the chopping block in the NFC. Second, they were No. 1in the NFL last year in injury luck, losing just 11 starts to injury for the whole season. That is why I think they will have some issues with that this year. Third, they were +4 last year in terms of close wins. And that is one of those statistics that always seems to even itself out. Chicago won six games last year by a touchdown or less and I don't think that they will be as fortunate this time around.

Fourth, their Pythagorean Wins total was -1.5 last year. That puts them in a range where teams are 8-25 against their Vegas win total the next year (a 76-percent trend in our favor). Further, they hammered their Vegas win total last year by an amount (4.0 games) that also puts them in a range where they have only a 13 percent chance of beating their Vegas win total again this year. All of these systems are very finely honed and have produced very well for me in the past and I have full confidence in them this year.

Finally, Chicago's schedule offers no quarter. They start out with Atlanta, at New Orleans (who will have extra rest), and against Green Bay. I think they could start the year 0-3. They have to play Detroit in the Lions' first Monday Night Football game in forever, and then come back on a short week to face rival Minnesota. The Bears have to play that weird game in London against a feisty Tampa Bay team and then their next game is a Monday Night Football game AT Philadelphia. I think they will be 3-5 at that point. They also close the year with four of their final six games on the road, with their last three home games coming against 2010 playoff teams. This schedule is rough. And you can't overlook the impact that a 2-6 or 3-5 start (or just an 0-3 or 1-4 start) could have on the locker room.

All in all, I think that this is a great spot. I think that Chicago is going to go 7-9 or, at BEST, 8-8. But they aren't going back to the playoffs and I don't see them winning 9 or 10 games.

3.5-Unit Play. Take Kansas City Chiefs 'Under' 7.5 Wins
Kansas City had a charmed season in 2010. It started in their season opener, when they were outgained by 200 yards and still managed to beat San Diego. It continues while beating Cleveland, Buffalo, and Denver - three terrible teams - by a combined nine points. And when the dust settled the Chiefs were the surprise winner of the AFC West. Well, I don't see that happening again. This team lost some key pieces to a defense that completely overachieved last year. They may have moderately improved their offense. But I think that will be offset by the fact that teams now have a lot of tape on this group (they were doing some pretty innovative, funky things last year) and they should be easier to game plan for. I don't trust Matt Cassel and I don't think he will play as well as he did last year, Dwayne Bowe is a notorious flake, their No. 1 draft pick got punched out by Thomas Jones, and on the whole I'm just not feeling the warm and fuzzies from this group.

Beyond that, Kansas City's schedule is brutal. Last year they had the candy schedule of a team that was among the worst in football for the two years prior. This season they have to cross over against the NFC North - which is deep and tough - and the AFC East - which features Super Bowl contenders New England and New York. I have the Chiefs going 3-3 in their division and I think they will lose to the Patriots, Jets, Steelers and Packers. That is seven losses right there. They also have games at Indianapolis and at Chicago, as well as three short weeks thanks to primetime games. This team was a statistical overachiever in 2010 and, like the Bears, I think that they are a playoff team that is ripe for a letdown year.

2.5-Unit Play. Take Tennessee Titans 'Over' 6.5 Wins
Note: This should be a 2.0-Unit Play.
I really like this Titans team as a sleeper in the AFC South. It isn't as if this franchise has been successful recently. They averaged 10 wins per year from 2006 to 2009 before a backslide to six wins last year. But they have also replaced the gross quarterback duo of Kerry Collins and Vince Young with Matt Hasselbeck, who I think is one of the most underrated quarterbacks of the last decade. That is a huge upgrade right there. And if - and this is a big ?if? they can get Chris Johnson and Kenny Britt on the field together then I think that this will be the best offense in the division.

(Yes, you read that right.) Tennessee's Pythagorean Wins number last year was +2.5. That is one of the highest numbers of the last 10 years and means that they were one of the biggest underachieving teams - statistically - of the last decade. They had a load of close losses, especially in the second half of the year, and this team fits a filter that predicts that they have an 87 percent chance to beat their Vegas win total this year. I will play those odds. Further, when I look at the schedule this season I believe that it is a tough one. But nothing that this group can't handle. One of the keys here is that their schedule is littered with teams - Baltimore, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Jacksonville - that I think are going to regress from their performances last season. And I think that will open the door for the Titans to steal some games. Jacksonville, Denver, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Buffalo are all games that I can see them winning. That is five right off the bat. I think that they will get one from the colts this year after losing two games by a total of five points to Indy last year. And if they do get swept by the Colts I don't think they will get swept by Houston too. So either way, in those four games that is one more win. That is six wins. So they simply have to find one more victory on their schedule in order for this play to cash and I think there are great odds that say this club goes 8-8 and is in the playoff mix come late November.

2-Unit Play. Take Baltimore Ravens 'Under' 10.5 Wins

2-Unit Play. Take Atlanta Falcons 'Under' 10.5 Wins

2-Unit Play. Take Dallas Cowboys 'Under' 9.0 Wins

1.5-Unit Play. Take Cleveland Browns 'Over' 6.5 Wins

1.5-Unit Play. Take Houston Texans 'Over' 8.5 Wins

1.5-Unit Play. Take Cincinnati Bengals 'Under' 5.5 Wins

1.5-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'Under' 8.0 Wins

1.5-Unit Play. Take New Orleans Saints (+120) to win NFC South

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Dodgers -155 over Padres

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Prophet
POD - Rockies/DBacks over 9

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Tampa Bay +140 over TORONTO Pinnacle
We hate to kick a team when they’re down as much as the next guy but the Jays are a real mess these days and the end is nowhere in sight. Yesterday, Toronto had three hits and struck out 14 times. The Jays have lost four straight and seven of its past nine games. During that stretch, Toronto has hit a combined .178 while scoring 22 lousy runs and practically every run they scored has come via the long ball. This is a team that is not to be feared right now with a cast of rookies, fill-ins and scrap-yard pick-ups. Yeah, they have their ace going but so what. Ricky Romero cannot add runs offensively. He may be able to hold the Rays to three runs or less and that’s if everything goes well. If it doesn’t than the Jays virtually have no shot with an offense that is seeing BB’s from top to bottom. Wade Davis has really picked it up over the past month. In his last four starts, Davis is 3-0 with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.03. The Rays have won his last five starts and one of those was against Toronto at the beginning of August in which Davis went 7.2 frames and allowed just five hits and three runs. That’s when the Jays had a full and healthy team. In his last start, Davis pitched a complete game, four-hitter against the Tigers. The kid is confident, the Rays have now won 14 of 18 and all the value is on the visitor again. Play: Tampa Bay +140 (Risking 2 units).

Oakland +113 over CLEVELAND Pinnacle
After a DH Saturday, the A’s were rained out yesterday so they should be ready to go today. These teams that are out of it that are playing a team that’s “in it” get a little extra juiced up to play some meaningful games and make life miserable for the opposition. The Indians are now hanging by a thread and sit 6½ games out after losing seven of its last 10 games. The White Sox leapfrogged over them yesterday so now the Indians are looking up at two teams instead of one. David Huff offers up nothing as the chalk. He’s made just four starts this year after spending most of the year in the minors. Huff went 2-11 with a 6.21 ERA in 80 IP for the Tribe last year. With a dreadful groundball/flyball split of 28%/56%, Huff is a home-run waiting to happen and the A’s have the power to go yard. The absence of an advantage over lefties doesn't help. Huff is on the roster only because Carlos Carrasco is on the DL and everything about this guy says he’s not a skill set worth chasing. Brandon McCarthy is a quality lefty. He has elite control with just 21 walks in 126 IP. His xERA of 3.60 is lower than his actual ERA of 3.72 and he’ll face an Indians team that is below .500 against southpaws. The A’s are coming off back-to-back series against the Yanks and Red Sox in which they went 3-3. They’re playing good ball and they’re a much better play taking back a tag with McCarthy than the Indians are laying one with that stiff, David Huff. Play: Oakland +113 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

RICHIE CARRERA

Tampa Bay/TORONTO UNDER 8.5- 5 Dimes

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Florida Marlins vs. New York Mets
Play: Florida Marlins GM 2

Tonight I’m backing the visiting Marlins and Ricky Nolasco in game two of this doubleheader. Nolasco has a winning record on the road and faces a New York Mets team going nowhere, one that is favored here but has lost six of the last nine games. They are also 0-2 in their last two times as a favorite. The Mets go with Dillon Gee, who started the season hot, but has since cooled off. He has a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts, walking 11 in 15 innings! The Mets are 17-26 in home games against right-handed starters this season, while Florida is 14-9 in road games against division opponents this season. Nolasco has already faced the Mets this season and has a 2.57 ERA against them. Also, over the last two years, the Marlins are an impressive 18-8 on the road when Nolasco starts. Play the Florida Marlins in Game 2 tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Game: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Tampa Bay +135 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.7)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 8.5 -120 (risk 3 to win 2.5)

Tampa Bay has been getting it done with pitching and defense, riding a 9-3-1 run UNDER the total. Tonight we have a pair of talented, young arms are on the hill. Ricky Romero is 4-3 when starting against the light-hitting Rays with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.068. The Jays are also 5-3 UNDER the total in those eight games. Romero has been on a red-hot roll, with a 2-0 record and a sizzling 1.64 ERA his last three starts. He has faced the Rays for 22 innings this season and has a 1.64 ERA against them, fanning 23 with 7 walks and only 9 hits allowed, so he has this team’s number. At least the Rays can counter with a strong arm of their own in Wade Davis, who has a 2.82 ERA his last three starts, averaging 7+ innings. For his career he has a 2.93 ERA against Toronto as well. I can’t see many runs being scored in this pitcher’s duel. Play the UNDER. In addition, the Rays are the dog here but offer great value. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in the last 10 starts made by Wade Davis, allowing 3 runs or less in seven of those starts. Tampa Bay is 25-14 (+12.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season, and 43-19 when playing against a team with a losing record. The Rays have really owned this series because of their pitching and defensive edges, going 10-4 (+5.6 Units) against the Blue Jays this season. Play Tampa Bay.
Game: Kansas City at Detroit (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Kansas City +155 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.1)

Kansas City is a big dog here, but this offense is good, ranking No. 12 in runs scored, No. 6 in batting average and No. 9 in on-base percentage. They are 3-3 over the last six games despite being a dog in all six, winning as a dog of +152, +185 and +160. Starter Luke Hochevor has respectable numbers, giving up 170 hits in 170 innings with a solid 101-54 strikeout to walk ratio. He has been on a terrific strikeout tear, fanning 29 his last five starts in 32 innings. The Royals are 5-4 in his career against the Tigers, too, while Detroit is just 4-4 when Max Scherzer goes against the Royals. It’s a tough situational spot for the Tigers, home from a seven-game road trip that ended yesterday with an 11-4 loss at Minnesota. Detroit has looked tired in these spots, losing 9-6 at home to Minnesota as a -140 favorite following their last long road trip, and losing 12-7 at home to the Angels as a -130 favorite after coming from a trip. Play the Royals.
Game: Florida at New York Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Florida +105 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.1)

Tonight I’m backing the visiting Marlins and Ricky Nolasco in game two of this doubleheader. Nolasco has a winning record on the road and faces a New York Mets team going nowhere, one that is favored here but has lost six of the last nine games. They are also 0-2 in their last two times as a favorite. The Mets go with Dillon Gee, who started the season hot, but has since cooled off. He has a 7.63 ERA in his last three starts, walking 11 in 15 innings! The Mets are 17-26 in home games against right-handed starters this season, while Florida is 14-9 in road games against division opponents this season. Nolasco has already faced the Mets this season and has a 2.57 ERA against them. Also, over the last two years, the Marlins are an impressive 18-8 on the road when Nolasco starts. Play the Florida Marlins in Game 2 tonight.
Game: San Diego at Los Angeles (10:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on San Diego +1.5 runs -165 (runline) (risk 2 to win 1.2)

The two worst teams in the NL West meet here. The Dodgers’ nice run ended yesterday with a home loss as a favorite, which shouldn’t surprise anyone as this team has a losing record both home and away. The offense ranks No. 26 in baseball in runs scored and No. 25 in slugging, plus the Dodgers are 13-21 (-11.5 Units) against the moneyline in home games after a loss this season. San Diego is a nice dog with ace Mat Latos on the hill, who has a 2.84 ERA his last three starts. He has had a great second half of the season giving up 3 runs or less in 10 starts since July 3. Latos has pitched better than both his record and ERA would indicate this season. He has an ERA of 3.74, with a solid strand rate of 69%. Despite a skid the last few days, the Padres still have a winning record over the last nine games, and they wheel-out their ace here against a terrible offensive team, so they can steal a win or keep this real close. Play the Padres on the runline.

(3-3) (+1.4*) Sun. (334-342) (-77.1*) for the season.

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions
Kevin

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays – UNDER 8.5 (-116)
(Note: I’m risking 2.32 units to win 2 units)

The Blue Jays are happy to send their ace Ricky Romero to the mound today, as they try and avoid a four game sweep to one of their AL East rivals. Romero is 12-9 on the season with a 2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a low .213 opponents batting average. Ricky has been exceptional as of late, and hasn’t lost a start since mid July. His last outing was his 20th quality start of the season, although he got the no decision giving up 3 earned runs on 6 innings of work. The Rays will counter Wade Davis, who has been pitching well as of late. On the season Davis is 8-7 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and .270 opponents batting average. Davis worked 9 innings against the Tigers in his last outing, giving up just 2 earned runs, but received a no decision in a game that went into extra innings. Over his last 10 starts Davis has allowed just 2.7 earned runs against per start. Romero and Davis faced each other back on May 19th in Toronto, with the result being a 3-2 Blue Jays victory. The UNDER is 3-0 in Romero’s three starts vs the Rays this season, while the UNDER is 2-0 in Davis’ two starts against Toronto this season. Note that the UNDER is 9-3-1 in the Rays last 13 overall, 7-3 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series, and 6-1 in their last 7 vs a left-handed starter. The UNDER is 10-2 in Davis’ last 12 starts with 4 days of rest, and 7-2 in his last 9 starts vs AL East opponents. Take note that the UNDER is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 during game 4 of a series, and 5-1-1 in their last 7 games vs a right handed starter. The UNDER is also 9-4-2 in Romero’s last 15 starts overall, and 5-1-1 in his last 7 starts vs AL East opponents. Neither team has had much success against these two pitchers, with Rays hitters batting .212 against Romero and Jays hitters batting a collective .235 against Davis. The Blue Jays have struggled with their bats during this recent 4 game losing skid, and I expect Romero to keep the Rays hitters in check. Value here is on the UNDER with the total set at 8.5. Take the UNDER with confidence as we snap out of this mini losing streak tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Dodgers (-159),
Pirates (+121),
Devil Rays (+138),
Twins (+181),
Royals (+155),
Athletics (+116).

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks
4 - 3 last week

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
A rematch of last season’s NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds will be showcased live on ESPN Monday night when the pair of NL rivals collides in Game 1; first pitch from the GAB is scheduled for 7:10 ET.
The NL East leading Phils have taken their foot off the gas a bit managing just a 5-5 mark their L/10 games heading into tonight’s series opener. Both of their games against the Florida Marlins were postponed over the weekend due to Hurricane Irene with a make-up dates yet to be decided. Manager Charlie Manuel’s squads’ mediocre play of late has seen his squad fall to #3 on the money list with an overall return of $1616; $663 of that profit for MLB bettors this season has come when on the road where they sport a 37-24 record.
Now a whopping 13-games off the pace in the NL Central, the Reds have been relegated to the spoiler role as they also have a double digit deficit to make up in the NL Wild Card race. Manager Dusty Baker’s squad has dramatically underachieved this season with the main culprit being the team’s woeful pitching staff which ranks 21st overall with a 4.09 team ERA. It can however score with the best of them, as they’ve averaged 4.71 runs per game (#4) and have launched 149 HRs (#7) going into Sunday’s finale with the Nats. Overall, the Redlegs have cost their wagering supporters $921 on the year.
Philly dominated this series a year ago winning five of the seven overall meetings before sweeping Cincy in the NLDS, and they’ve taken three of the teams four overall meetings in 2011; the ‘over’ cashed in each contest. This will be Cole Hamels’ first start since being placed on the DL in the middle of August. The Phillies have won 16 of his 25 starts to date and are 8-3 his L/11 starts away from CBP. They’ve also toppled each of the L/5 NL Central opponents faced. The Reds have won two of Homer Bailey’s L/3 starts and he’s 5-2 with a 4.66 ERA in his seven GAB outings on the year. Cincy’s come out on top five of the L/6 times it battled a lefty.
PICK: Phillies/Reds OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Todays Picks

Oakland Athletics ML +116

[Mr. IWS]

JTGPicks
Flat system To WIN 100dlls

Cincinnati -135

Cleveland -120

Tampa Bay +140

White Sox -188