8-31-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
NY Yankees Face Josh Beckett, And Red Sox
By: Adam Markowitz


New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-160, 9)

There aren't many tighter races in baseball than the one in the AL East, and on Wednesday night, the top two combatants for the division crown duke it out at Fenway Park, as the Boston Red Sox take on the New York Yankees. MLB betting action gets started at 7:10 p.m. (ET) from Beantown, and there will be live television coverage on NESN in New England, and ESPN in the rest of the country.

The Yankees have a boatload of problems that they need to deal with coming into this series. For starters, the injury bug has bitten both Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. The New York captain has a knee injury but should still be in the lineup, while A-Rod has a thumb injury and could miss some or all of this three-game set.

The other problem is that New York has had absolutely no luck against the Red Sox of late. The Yankees are only 2-12 in their last 14 tries against Boston, including a 2-10 record this year, and just 2-6 in the last eight visits to Fenway Park.

Right-hander Phil Hughes is slated to be on the bump for the men in pinstripes on Wednesday night, and that opens up another can of worms. He is only 2-4 in his career with a 6.25 ERA against Boston, and he was handed the loss in a relief appearance against it earlier in August.

Hughes is just 4-4 on the season with a 6.46 ERA, and his splits are simply dreadful. He has a 1.53 WHIP, batters are hitting a whopping .300 against him, and his K/BB ratio is only 33/18. None of those numbers are stellar, especially since Hughes only has 54 1/3-innings of work under his belt on the campaign.

Meanwhile, Boston has to be smiling. The team just had two straight off-days thanks to Hurricane Irene, whereas the Yankees might only have one more off-day for the rest of the season.

The Sox also know that taking even one out of three against New York will leave them atop the division heading into the final month of the regular season. They were priced at +120 against CC Sabathia and the Yankees in the series opener on Tuesday.

Josh Beckett is going to be the Wednesday night hurler for the hosts. He is only 11-5 on the season, but his stats suggest that he should be a Cy Young candidate. Beckett has a 2.43 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP, and as a result, batters are only hitting .201 against him. That's down 91 points from a season ago.

On top of that, Beckett has been hot with only one start since the start of July seeing him allow more than three earned runs.

Beckett has struggled at times against the Yankees, posting a 5.37 career ERA, but he is 13-7 to show for that work. He has pitched four times against New York this year, and the team has won all four games.

Entering this series, the Red Sox were 18-8 in their last 26 games at home. They are also 26-10 over the course of the last 36 starts at Fenway Park with Beckett on the mound.

New York has lost six straight road starts with Hughes on the hill against teams with a winning record. However, in the second game of a series, the Yankees have won 15 out of 18.

The aftermath of Hurricane Irene has left some beautiful weather in the Northeast, and Wednesday night's duel should be no exception. Expect temperatures in the low-70s around the time of the first pitch with virtually no chance of rain.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Wednesday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
By Covers Staff


STREAKING

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies (14-7, 2.71 ERA)

Lee is on another remarkable run, allowing just two earned runs over his last four starts, while piling up 32 strikeouts over that span. He blanked the Mets over seven innings in a 10-0 win the last time he took the hill, allowing just three hits.

Randy Wolf, Milwaukee Brewers (11-8, 3.37 ERA)

The Brewers have won each of Wolf’s last six trips to the hill and he has held his opposition to a single run or less in four of those outings. He gave up a homer on his second pitch of the ball game but settled down to fire 6 2/3 innings of solid work in a 5-2 win over the Cubs last week. Wolf has walked 63 batters this season after issuing 87 last year.

SLUMPING

Chris Volstad, Florida Marlins (5-11, 5.61 ERA)

Volstad continues to struggle in the first inning. He allowed two more runs in the opening frame in a 3-2 loss to Cincinnati in his last outing, raising his season total to 18 runs allowed in the first inning. The Marlins have won just two of Volstad’s starts dating back to June 30 and has given up at least three runs in every start since then.

Dontrelle Willis, Cincinnati Reds (0-3, 4.10 ERA)

Even though Willis is still looking for his first win in a Reds uniform, he has pitched pretty well. He has held his opposition to three or fewer runs in all but one of his nine starts with Cincinnati.

"A lot of things dictate wins and losses," said Willis, who is coming off a no-decision in a 4-3 win over Washington. "I like the way I'm throwing the ball. I like the way I'm competing and I like the way the guys are competing for me."

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (-160, 9)

Lost in the shuffle of New York’s big 22-9 win over Oakland last week that featured a MLB-record three grand slams from the Yanks was the fact that Phil Hughes took another beating on the hill before the bats bailed him out.

He gave up six runs on seven hits over just two innings to put New York seriously behind the eight-ball, while also seeing his hold on a rotation spot slip.

"It was just a grind, and unfortunately, I made a lot of bad pitches and command was my biggest issues," Hughes told reporters. "It makes a little easier when we score 22 runs. I can sleep a little easier tonight."

But facing Josh Beckett and Boston’s offense can’t be good for his sleeping habits. We can’t support a Yankees bet with Hughes being so unpredictable.

PICK: Boston Red Sox


Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (110, 9.5)

Jo-Jo Reyes wore out his welcome with the Blue Jays and landed on waivers earlier this month. The Orioles, not exactly overrun with fabulous starting pitching, took a shot on the lefty and he may work out for them down the road.

He held Minnesota to one run on five hits over six innings of work in a 6-1 last week, in easily his best start since he joined the Orioles.

"It wasn't my best outing, but I was able to get through six and not have to use the bullpen right away," Reyes told reporters after the game.

For a guy who went winless over 28 starts, you’d think he would be a little more excited about the win. Either way, if you’re expecting him to fool his old teammates, you’ve got another thing coming.

The Blue Jays’ offense should eat him alive.

PICK: Toronto Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

WEDNESDAY BETTORS' TIPS AND NOTES
Wednesday’s Betting Tips: Front Office Spat Hurting CHW?
By Covers Staff


Who’s Hot

MLB: The over is 8-1 in the last nine games when Rick Porcello starts for Detroit against Kansas City.

MLB: The Los Angeles Dodgers are 18-5 in their last 23 as a favorite.

MLB: The under is 10-4 in James Shields’ last 14 starts overall.

Who’s Not

MLB: The under is 4-20-4 in Oakland’s last 28 as an underdog.

MLB: Seattle is 1-7 in Felix Hernandez’s last eight starts against the Angels.

MLB: Colorado is 2-8 in its last 10 games in Arizona.

Key Stat

57 – If you really need any more evidence that the NFL has become a passing league, consider that almost 57 percent of offensive plays in the regular season last year were passing plays. Indianapolis led the league with 288.1 passing yards per game and head into Week 1 as a 3-point underdog at Houston while questions of Peyton Manning’s status continue.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees – X-rays came back negative on A-Rod’s injured thumb on Tuesday, but he also received a cortisone shot later in the day. Now he isn’t expected to play until at least Friday.

Game Of The Day

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (-130, 8.5)

Notable Quotable

“To be honest, it’s pretty good money for him to just let me go. If they don’t think I’m doing my job and all this s---, they think Ozzie f----- this up, fine, let them think that…Let’s get this straight: I’m the face of the franchise. People can say what they want. There’s a lot of blame going around out there, but I blame myself because I guess I’m the one with the balls around here. It’s not because I’m cocky or an arrogant guy, but I can leave Chicago with my head up. That’s what’s important to me.” – Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie about his most recent verbal brawl with GM Ken Williams. Speculation out of Chicago is that both Guillen and Williams could be canned in the offseason. Despite the spat, the White Sox had won six straight before Tuesday's action and were big -210 favorites Wednesday against Minnesota.

Tips And Notes

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew is set to make his preseason debut Thursday against the St. Louis Rams after sitting out following arthroscopic knee surgery. Jones-Drew said that he still has that “burst” and that he’s looking to take a few hits before Week 1. Oddsmakers list the Jags as 3-point favorites in Thursday’s matchup.

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman is trying to shut down rumors that had him on his way out of town. “I’m not going to get moved,” he told reporters. "I think the ship has sailed. I really do." Maybe, but there is talk that the Texas Rangers are interested following Nelson Cruz’s injury. The Cardinals have until Wednesday to decide on Berkman’s fate. He’s hitting .280 with 30 homers this season.

Bettors are already moving the line for the NFL’s opening regular season game of the year. The Packers opened as high as -5.5 for their date with the Saints on Thursday, Sept. 8, but Saints support has books dropping the line to Green Bay -4 across the board. The total is currently holding around 47 points.

[Mr. IWS]

U.S. Open picks: Day 3 odds and matchup analysis
By RICKY DIMON

Ricky Dimon is coming off a 2-2 day, putting him at 3-5 on the tournament and down 2.66 units.

DENIS ISTOMIN (-180) VS. RYAN SWEETING (+130)

It seems like a long time ago that Istomin was testing Rafael Nadal in an entertaining second-round U.S. Open clash. Of course, it was just last year, but Istomin has been positively dreadful ever since. The Uzbek owns a dismal 10-20 record at the ATP level this season, so he recently went back to the Challenger circuit to pick up some victories. Sweeting, on the other hand, is in the midst of a breakout year on tour with a 14-15 record. The American is in much better form than his opponent, has played more hard-court matches this summer, and will have the crowd behind him.

Pick: SWEETING

GUILLERMO GARCIA-LOPEZ (-150) VS. DANIEL GIMENO-TRAVER (+110)

Garcia-Lopez has been hampered by an arm injury all summer long. He attempted to play in Cincinnati but retired in the opening round. Garcia-Lopez rides a four-match losing streak into the U.S. Open and he has not advanced out of a first round since Stuttgart in early July. Gimeno-Traver’s season has been nothing to write home about, but he has been in decent form on clay of late. He also made a surprising run to third round in Flushing Meadows last year, so Gimeno-Traver has to be feeling good about his chances in this one.

Pick: GIMENO-TRAVER

JOHN ISNER (-275) VS. MARCOS BAGHDATIS (+185) and KAROL BECK (-450) VS. DIEGO JUNQUEIRA (+275)

Isner has already defeated Baghdatis twice this summer—in Montreal and Winston-Salem. There is no reason to think anything different will happen in New York. Baghdatis has never fared well at the U.S. Open while Isner reached the fourth round in 2009 and the third round last year. The 6-foot-9’ American, who won the Winston-Salem title, owns a 12-4 record on hard courts this summer. As for Beck-Junqueira, the last time the Argentine played a hard-court match was in January…of 2010. Beck won a hard-court Challenger event this month, so count on him destroying Junqueira in straight sets.

Pick: ISNER and BECK

MONICA NICULESCU (-150) VS. ALEXANDRA DULGHERU (+110)

It’s never hard to follow up one of the biggest wins of your career with another victory, but Dulgheru has a good chance of doing just that in an all-Romanian affair on Wednesday. For Dulgheru, who ousted Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova in the first round, this is not her first rodeo on the big stage. She reached the Miami quarterfinals earlier this season before extending Maria Sharapova to a third-set tiebreaker. Niculescu withdrew from a tournament in Vancouver in early August with an abdominal injury and although she returned for three events prior to the U.S. Open, she won just a single main-draw match in that span.

Pick: DULGHERU

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo frolicked in Fenway with the Yankees last night, but the fun ended in Houston where he had a problem with the Pirates, whose setback caused a minor uptick in the debt to 2,765 parkers.

Tonight, showing dogged determination, Mr. Aitch will try to get some bite for his buck with Hughes, Harden and Lopez -- 20 units apiece on the Yankees, A's and Small Bears.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Indians -140

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

705- 526 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Wed: Braves -165

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Tigers -155 over Royals

[Mr. IWS]

Sportsbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Tigers -155 over Royals

[Mr. IWS]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Giants(RL)
Red Sox(RL)

[Mr. IWS]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 8 runs bet. the Phillies and Reds

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Wednesday, August 31

Hot pitchers
-- Lilly has a 2.20 RA in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 2-2, 3.09 in his last five starts.
-- Lee is 5-0, 1.40 in his last five starts.
-- Wolf is 5-0, 2.79 in his last six starts.
-- Collmenter is 2-1, 1.73 in his last four starts.

-- Beckett is 3-2, 2.94 in his last eight starts. Hughes is 3-0, 3.63 in his last four starts.
-- Jimenez is 2-0, 2.40 in two home starts for Cleveland.
-- Peavy has a 7.00 RA in his last six home starts.
-- Shields is 3-1, 2.66 in his last five starts.
-- Hernandez is 4-2, 2.98 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Leblanc has a 6.60 RA in his last three starts.
-- Lopez is 2-3, 7.63 in his last six starts.
-- Capuano has a 5.40 RA in his last eight starts, but he tossed a shutout in his last start. Volstad is 0-3, 5.82 in three starts since coming back from AAA.
-- Lannan is 0-3, 9.00 in his last three starts. Lowe is 2-5, 5.92 in his last seven starts.
-- Willis is 0-2, 4.94 in his last four starts.
-- Happ is 0-4, 8.69 in his last four starts. McDonald is 1-2, 5.05 in his last six starts.
-- Westbrook is 1-2, 4.72 in his last four starts.
-- Rogers is 0-2, 6.11 in his last three starts.

-- Porcello is 1-2, 9.15 in his last four starts. Paulino is 1-2, 5.50 in his last three starts.
-- Diamond is 0-2, 6.39 in two starts this year.
-- Reyes (20 starts for Toronto this year) is 2-2, 4.71 in four starts for Baltimore. Alvarez is 0-2, 5.16 in four starts this season.
-- Harden is 2-2, 5.93 in five road starts this season.
-- Ogando is 1-1, 8.10 in his last four starts.
-- Haren is 1-1, 6.12 in his last four starts.

Totals
-- Five of Padres' last six road games stayed under the total.
-- Giants' last three games all went over the total.
-- Six of last eight games at Citi Field stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Washington's last five games.
-- Six of Philly's last seven games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Pirate road games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven St Louis games went over the total.
-- Over is 11-3 in Colorado's last fourteen games.

-- Last three Oakland games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Detroit's last eight home games.
-- Five of last six Toronto games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Minnesota's last five road games.
-- Last three Bronx Bomber games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Texas home games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-1-1 in Angels' last ten road games.

Hot Teams
-- Mets won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won seven of their last ten games.
-- Reds won eight of their last ten home games. Phillies are 7-4 in their last eleven games.
-- Brewers won 21 of their last 25 home games. St Louis won four of its last five games.
-- Astros won five of their last six home games.
-- Arizona won last eight games, allowing total of ten runs.
-- Dodgers won nine of their last twelve games.

-- Orioles won seven of their last nine games.
-- Indians won four of their last five games.
-- Bronx won its last three games, allowing seven runs. Red Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay won five of its last seven road games. Rangers won three of their last four games overall.
-- Angels won eight of their last eleven games.
-- Tigers won nine of their last twelve games.
-- White Sox won seven of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Marlins lost 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Washington lost six of its last seven games.
-- Pirates lost 10 of their last 14 games.
-- Rockies lost four of their last five games.
-- Padres lost their last six games, scoring nine runs.
-- Giants are 5-10 in their last 15 games. Cubs lost seven of their last ten games, but won the last two.

-- Oakland lost five of its last six games.
-- Blue Jays lost five of their last six games.
-- Royals are 5-10 in their last fifteen road games.
-- Twins lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Seattle is 4-10 in its last fourteen games.

Umpires
-- Phil-Cin-- Underdogs won last four Cousins games.
-- Fla-NY-- Underdogs won three of last five Culbreth games.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Over is 7-2 in last nine Cooper games.
-- Pitt-Hst-- Last four Everitt games stayed under the total.
-- StL-Mil-- Three of last four Tschida games stayed under total.
-- Col-Az-- Over is 12-7 in last nineteen Randazzo games.
-- SD-LA-- Underdogs are 5-3 in last eight Iassogna games.
-- Chi-SF-- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Eddings games.

-- A's-Clv-- Four of last five Dreckman games stayed under total.
-- KC-Det-- Seven of last ten Hallion games went over the total.
-- Tor-Balt-- Home team won six of last seven Fairchild games.
-- NY-Bos-- Underdogs are 9-5 in last fourteen O'Nora games.
-- TB-Tex-- Last three Hirschbeck games stayed under the total.
-- Min-Chi-- Under is 7-3 in last ten TWelke games.
-- LA-Sea-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Knight games.

[Mr. IWS]

MLB Dunkel


LA Angels at Seattle
The Angels look to take advantage of a Seattle team that is 2-7 in Felix Hernandez' last 9 starts against teams with a winning record. LA is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Angels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 31

Game 901-902: San Diego at LA Dodgers (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 13.937; LA Dodgers (Lilly) 16.629
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 903-904: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lopez) 15.104; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 13.464
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+160); Over

Game 905-906: Florida at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 14.525; NY Mets (Capuano) 14.812
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 907-908: Washington at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.628; Atlanta (Lowe) 14.400
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+140); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 15.958; Cincinnati (Willis) 14.248
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Under

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 13.902; Houston (Happ) 15.339
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-105); Over

Game 913-914: St. Louis at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.292; Milwaukee (Wolf) 15.900
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-140); Under

Game 915-916: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Rogers) 15.052; Arizona (Collmenter) 17.071
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Arizona (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-150); Over

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Paulino) 16.282; Detroit (Porcello) 15.078
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Over

Game 919-920: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 13.495; White Sox (Peavy) 16.335
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 3; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-185); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-185); Under

Game 921-922: Toronto at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Alvarez) 14.603; Baltimore (Reyes) 15.556
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+100); Under

Game 923-924: Oakland at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Harden) 14.386; Cleveland (Jimenez) 15.046
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-135); Over

Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 17.038; Boston (Beckett) 16.453
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+150); Under

Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 15.573; Texas (Ogando) 15.831
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-140); Over

Game 929-930: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 15.684; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.443
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 5
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-115); Under