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8:10 pm
**PREFERRED
OVER 8.5
St. Louis at Milwaukee
Westbrook vs. Wolf
Last night was a 2-1 game, so tonight the hitters are a little bit due. The last time Randy Wolf faced the Cardinals (a 5-1 win August 10 at St. Louis), neither Matt Holliday nor Lance Berkman was in the lineup. Holliday will be in there tonight. Wolf isn’t getting many strikeouts lately: 2, 1, 5, 3, 3 in his last five starts, all 6 innings or more. Jake Westbrook is Mr. Ordinary: a 1.49 WHIP, .284 Batting Average Against. He has walked 5 batters twice in his last four starts. In a 1-walk performance three starts ago, he gave up 2 home runs. The Brewers are still wondering why they didn’t get more than 3 earned runs against him on August 10, when he walked 5 and allowed 6 hits.
3:10 pm (DAY GAME!)
**PREFERRED
UNDER 7.5
San Diego at LA Dodgers
Leblanc vs. Lilly
Ted Lilly’s 4.43 ERA seems misleading because his WHIP is a good 1.18. Other than a 7-6 game in Colorado two starts ago which we called ‘Over’, his most recent starts The Padres have a team batting average of .240. Their starter, Leblanc? Ugh. Wading through the muck of his starts is not fun. But at least you have a situation where the home team is traveling afterwards, all the way to Pittsburgh for a Thursday day game, for God’s sake, what’s up with that? All the more reason to move this thing right along. The Padres are off tomorrow and home Friday, which means that if Leblanc does them all a favor and pitches well for a change, they can head back down I-5, hit home, then hit the bars early and often.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
LA ANGELS (Haren) -115 over SEATTLE (F. Hernandez)
The Angels pounded the hapless Mariners last night, giving themselves a 7-3 mark in their
last 10 games (+$415). Tonight they'll send a top notch starter in Dan Haren (3.25 ERA) to the
mound, as they look to close the gap with Texas in the tough AL West. LA has been very profitable
against righthanders on the road this year (+$805) while Seattle has floundered (-$1565 overall). The
home team averages a mere 3.5 runs per game, so anything less than a stellar performance by Felix
Hernandez should make for an easy win for LA.
Game: Kansas City at Detroit (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Kansas City +165 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.3)Gone
Kansas City continues to be a dog despite playing well, winning two of the last three games as a dog of +160 each time. They blasted the Tigers 9-5 in the opener of this series, then lost 2-1 yesterday. This is a good Kansas City offense, one ranked 12th in baseball in runs, 5th in batting average and 9th in on base percentage. They face a very hittable pitcher in Rick Porcello, who has an ERA over five for the season and 5.63 his last three starts. The Royals have faced him a lot this season and teed off him, getting 22 hits and four walks in 16+ innings. He’s not a strikeout pitcher and the Royals have put the ball in play a lot against him. You would think that a pitcher who throws his home games in a huge place like Comerica Park would be great at home, but Porcello is 5-5 with a 6.00 ERA in this park, where opponents hit .305 off him! Play the Royals.
Game: New York Yankees at Boston (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Yankees +155 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.1)
When two rivals like this meet it’s always wise to take a look at the dog first, especially in a pennant race with so much at stake. The Yankees are the dog here and come in with the top offense in baseball in runs scored, plus second in slugging and on-base percentage. They have one of the top bullpens in baseball which is a huge plus in a game that is expected to be hard fought all the way. They face Josh Beckett, who has had a great season though he’s been slipping a bit, with a 4.50 ERA his last three starts, giving up nine runs and 19 hits in 18 innings. He’s 31 years old and his fastball is no longer in the high 90s like his younger days. Lifetime against the Bronx Bombers he has a 5.37 ERA and this Boston bullpen is not as strong as New York's. And Boston is only 2-4 its last six home games. Play the NY Yankees.
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
Offered at: -145
REASON FOR PICK: Play on LA Dodgers at 3:10 ET. I look for the Dodgers to finish off a three-game sweep of division rival San Diego this afternoon at Chavez Ravine. The Padres have just been plain lousy at the plate of late. They actually scored five times last night, which was one more run than they'd scored their previous five games COMBINED, but it wasn't nearly enough after they found themselves in an 8-0 hole after 2 innings. That loss dropped SD to 0-10 this season when coming off back to back division road losses. They are 4-10 this season vs. LA, including 2-6 on the road this season. Just take a look at these two teams' respective offensive numbers over the last week. San Diego is averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting .211 while the Dodgers are averaging 6.7 rpg while batting .279. Overall, the Padres have lost six straight games while LA is 7-1 last 8. Dodgers starter Ted Lilly has pitched quite well this year vs. San Diego with a 3-1 team start record and allowing 5 runs in 21+ IP. Wade LeBlanc has a 1-5 TSR all-time vs. LA for San Diego. 5* on LA Dodgers.
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