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Maddux-Thurs
MLB ...over 7.5 ATL
WF +7
Free play on Idaho
MLB ...over 7.5 ATL
WF +7
Free play on Idaho
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EasyBaseballBetting
2 Baseball, 1 NCAA Football!!!
Brewers [-175] versus Cardinals (1.0 Units) - The Brewers are one of baseball's biggest surprises this season. We see them fending off a sweep today against divisional foe Cardinals. Even though we don't like taking divisional foe favorites, these Brewers are fighting off a sweep so internally they won't have a let down. And these teams fares quite well when priced in this range. This late in the season (beyond 120 games), teams fending off being swept at home in the third game are 47-20, +9.3 units if priced better than -150. It is stil reasonably good when the two teams are rivals. You see, this late in the season, you either have something to play for and will win because you are a favorite. Or you have nothing to play for but when fending off a sweep it is pride at home. Plus to be that big a favorite, you must have a decent pitcher on the mound that doesn't care about what record his team is rather his career too..
Angels [-157] versus Mariners (1.0 Units) - The Mariners' win in Game 3 assured that they could not "lose" this series. Not that it really matters either way. But from the Angels' perspective it does matter. They are only a few games back of the Rangers and they have their second best units pitcher on the mound today. Teams like the Mariners that are almost 20 games below 500 just do not play out 4 game series' that well... Here's the proof. Taking 500 or better teams against teams below 44% win percentage in the fourth game of a series is 112-62, +19 units in the second half of a season, the past 7 years. In fact, it is a STRONG play if the teams are rivals. 52-22, +19 units. So like we said, we don't mind taking the rival favorite here because of the Game 4 who cares dynamic from the side of the loser team.
Mississippi St -29 over Memphis (1.0 Units) - The Mississippi State Bulldogs face the Memphis Tigers this Thursday as both teams officially open their 2011-2012 college football campaign. This game is a total mismatch on paper and the spread justifies this idea. The line opened at MSU – 24 and has been bet up to its current line of MSU -29. Since this is week 1, and there are a lot of uncertainties, we like to bet on line analysis and ‘betting the line’. One of our favorite angles is betting on a road team if they are the far more superior team and are laying >21 points. Although it might be tempting to bet the home dog in this game, beware of the Tigers. They are 0-7 ATS for the last 3 years against BCS schools and were an abysmal 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS last year. SEC teams feature fast, lightening-quick teams, and the Bulldogs are certainly in that class. The Bulldogs may start off slow in this game, but rest assured: the cream will rise and the better team will come out victorious and start piling on the points.Comment
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David Banks
0 - 3 this week
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers 8:05PM ET
The Tampa Bay Rays will look to improve upon their ever so slight playoff chances when they battle Texas at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on Thursday night’s finale of the three-game set; first pitch is scheduled for 8:05 ET.
The Rays looked as if they had one completely insane run still left in them when they took the first of three with the Blue Jays in Toronto, but after last night’s disappointing 2-0 shutout at the hands of the Rangers in the series opener, it looks as if it’s not gonna happen. As it is, Tampa Bay has an enormous uphill climb to contend with if indeed it plans on qualifying for the second season. They currently sit nine and 8.5-games out respectively in the AL East and AL wild Card race.
The Rangers recently snagged some breathing room for themselves atop the AL West standings by taking two of three from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim before shutting the Rays out on Tuesday night in this series’ opener. That said, they’re line-up took a major hit when Nelson Cruz once again landed himself on the DL after straining his hamstring. That’s terrible news for a team that’s scored two runs or less in five of its L/10 games. Of the teams nine series left in the regular season, five are against +.500 opponents with only one of the match-ups coming at home.
Texas holds a slim 3-1 advantage in its 2011 season series with the Rays; the ‘total’ has split (2-2 O/U) in each game. Jeff Niemann enters his 19th start of the season 9-5 with a 3.46 ERA & .240 BAA. He’s been nothing short of money away from the Trop to date posting a 6-1 record with a 2.83 ERA & .207 BAA; this will be his first career start against the Rangers. Texas has won 16 of C.J. Wilson’s 28 starts on the year; he’s 6-2 with a 4.08 ERA & .259 BAA at home. He’s allowed three or less ERs in all three of his career starts against the Rays, and the Rangers are 12-3 his L/15 trips to the bump against +.500 opponents.
PICK: TAMPA/TEXAS OVERComment
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Gridiron Gold
(135) WAKE FOREST (+6.5, ov49.0)
(136) SYRACUSE (-6.5, un49.0)
Thursday, Sep 01 2011, 05:00 PM PST
Can't see much scoring here with a pair of run-oriented teams. Wake Forest (3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS) had a tough year on offense while working in junior QB Ted Stachitas, sophomore QB Tanner Price and senior QB Skylar Jones, all who return. The ground attack was very good, averaging 146 yards rushing and 22 points per game. QB Tanner Price (1,349 yards, 7 TDs, 8 INTs) was up and down as a freshman, but has his top targets back in junior WR Chris Givens (514 yards) and senior WR Devon Brown (302) On offense, they prefer to be a ground-oriented attack. Wake is on a 1-9 SU, 3-7 ATS run into the new season. Note that Wake is 13-10 over the total their last 23 road games. Syracuse impressed under Doug Marrone, going making a bowl during an 8-5 SU/5-5 ATS campaign in 2010. The defense was No. 17 in the nation allowing 19.3 ppg, an attacking, blitzing unit and they come off a Pinstripe Bowl victory over Kansas State, 36-34. Junior QB Ryan Nassib (19 TDs, 8 INTs) leads this ball control offense (22.2 ppg), returning senior RB Antwon Bailey (554 yards), who averaged 4.9 yards per carry. Syracuse made its quantum leap on the strength of a blitzing defense that creates havoc for quarterbacks and ranks 16th nationally in yards allowed, an attacking 4-3 scheme employed by defensive coordinator Scott Shafer. They are on a 6-3 run under the total, a trend that should continue with this run-first offense. Syracuse is 9-18 SU/8-16 ATS at home the last four seasons (2-4 SU, 0-4 ATS last fall).
Projected Score: Syracuse 24, Wake Forest 16
(137) BOWLING GREEN (+7.5, ov53.0)
(138) IDAHO (-7.5, un53.0)
Thursday, Sep 01 2011, 06:00 PM PST
A long road trip for Bowling Green to open the season, off a poor 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS campaign. Coach Dave Clawson loves to throw the football, averaging 21 points and 231.6 yards passing last season, and returns sophomore QB Matt Schilz (8 TDs, 14 INTs). This California-kid through for over 2,200 yards as a freshman. Four starters return along the line, so there should be better balance. Most of the secondary returns this fall with Keith Morgan, Cameron Truss and Jovan Leacock leading the way, but this defense allowed 33.6 ppg. Idaho also loves to throw the football under head coach Robb Akey, though they lost quarterback Nathan Enderle. This offense was 10th in the nation in passing with 298 yards and 26.6 ppg, but senior QB Brian Reader and sophomore Taylor Davis are stepping in. The new QBs have unproven commodities at the rest of the skill positions, too. This Idaho defense is small and allowed 28.3 ppg. With the Idaho offense in transition and the defense bad, don't be surprised if the visitors keep this close. An offensive show? Maybe not: Note that Idaho carries a 6-1 run under the total into the new season.
Projected Score: Idaho 24, Bowling Green 20Comment
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Winning Points
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1
12:05 pm
(DAY GAME!)
***BEST BET
UNDER 8.5
Oakland at Cleveland
Gonzalez vs. Carmona
‘Carmona my house, my house-a-Carmona’ says the Indians’ starter to the butt-dragging A’s as the Oakland team plays the final game of a looooooooong road trip. Fausto’s fastball has more hop to it since the All-Star break. Before the break, his ERA was 5.78. In his starts since the break, his ERA is 3.08. In his only start against Oakland this season, Carmona pitched 8 innings of 5-hit, 1-run ball. The Indians have a collective average of only .221 against A’s lefty Gio Gonzalez, with 0 home runs and only 5 extra-base hits in 77 at-bats. He can work like a speedy Gonzalez today as the Indians are ticketed to Kansas City, the A’s back home to Oakland, and the umpires to who-cares-where after this game is concluded. ‘Just a bit outsi…no, Steeeeeee-rike!
Thursday, September 1, 2011
NY YANKEES (A.Burnett) +185 over BOSTON (Lester)
Obviously AJ Burnett is not the most promising proposition as a general rule, but the price on
the Yankees is hard to resist. They've been on fire offensively (5.9 runs per game in the past
10 days) and they check in here with a 12-5 mark vs. lefthanders on the road in night games
(+$650). Boston has been a losing proposition vs. righties at Fenway (+$845) and as bad as AJ
has been, he's backed by a stellar New York bullpen that can limit damage late in the game.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMER 1
9:15 pm
**PREFERRED
Kentucky over Western Kentucky by 27 (at Nashville, TN) Bobby Rainey, blah, blah, blah. Western Kentucky has a kid who
ranks up there nationally in rushing yardage, and he gained 183 yards against Kentucky’s defense last season. So that’s all you
hear about: Bobby Rainey, Bobby Rainey, blah, blah, blah. But Kentucky is still favored by 18 against a team it beat 63-28 last
season. That was a 35-point difference, and Western Kentucky still has one of the world’s worst passing quarterbacks, Kajuan
Jakes, trying to elevate them from Bobby Rainey, Bobby Rainey, blah, blah, blah. “When people are able to line up and run the
ball on you, it’s a slap in the face,” Kentucky head coach Joker Phillips said. “Last year was a slap in the face the way
they ran the ball on us.” So, the defense, which is the unit that lost fewer productive starters, has a mission here. The
offense lost some guys, but this is a program that has been to five consecutive bowl games and has a good system in place
where athletes get into space and make plays. KENTUCKY, 34-7.Comment
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Sports Wagers
BOSTON –1½ +104 over N.Y. Yankees Pinnacle
You’ll notice the total in this game is 9½ and that’s a pretty big number when you consider that Jon Lester and his 3.09 ERA is on the hill for the Red Sox. Over the past month, Lester’s ERA is even lower at 2.78. So, runs are going to have to come from somewhere and they’re likely to come against the most fragile pitcher in the majors, A.J. Burnett. Burnett has made 27 starts this year and only eight have been of the quality variety. Over the past month, covering five starts Burnett has an ERA of 11.91 and it’s not like he’s faced some strong offense over that span either. No, Burnett has faced the Orioles, Twins, K.C., Angels and the White Sox and has allowed a total of 30 runs in 22.2 IP. He’s another bad outing away from being sent to the pen and this start could and likely will send him there. Burnett has had some bad luck, no question about it but it’s his fragile state of mind that makes him unplayable. Burnett’s confidence is shot and he has to have a daunting feeling knowing that he’s pitching at Fenway against this powerful offense. In one start against Boston this season, Burnett allowed seven runs in 5.2 frames for an ERA of 11.23. What chance does he have today? With the Red Sox dominating the season series 11-3, and with a total of 9½, Burnett has about a 1% chance of success and when the manager says, "We've got to try to fix him," it's best to pass on A.J. Burnett. Play: Boston –1½ +104 (Risking 2 units).
College Futures Play
Big-10 conference winner
Michigan St. +10-1 BET365
This is truly a cashable ticket with tremendous value, as the Spartans are as good as any team in this conference. The Buckeyes are a team in transition with no QB, a new coach and a ton of inside turmoil. Forget them. Northwestern has a great offense but no defense so forget them too. The biggest obstacles in the division will be Nebraska and Wisconsin but one is a newcomer to the division and the other, Wisconsin always find a way to lose games they should win. Wisconsin’s defense is tremendous and that makes them tough but it’s an offense that is one-dimensional and that’s never a good thing. The Badgers offensive game plan will be run left, run right and run up the middle. As for the Spartans, Kirk Cousins is one of the few returning QB’s in the conference. MSU also has a great running game and some can’t miss NFL prospects on defense. They’re well coached and they’ve recruited well for two years running. The Spartans have seven home games and five road games and could easily run the table at home with games against Youngstown St., Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Indiana. At worst they lose to Wisconsin and go 6-1 at home. The Spartans five road games are at Notre Dame, Ohio St., Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern. All games are winnable but they’re also tough so give them two wins for sure, maybe three and possibly four. Nine wins could win this division and the Spartans are very capable of 10. Things have to go right but the fact that Penn St and Ohio St. are both 5½-1 to win the division shows just how much value is on the Spartans, as we can almost guarantee you that Michigan State finishes ahead of those two. Play: Michigan State +10-1 to win the Big-10. (Risking 1 unit).Comment
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Dom Chambers Today's winners ...
My 80 Dime play comes from the Big 10 on the Wisconsin Badgers ageinst the UNLV Rebels. I hate laying the big chalk, but this is a mismatch in every sense of the word. In Las Vegas, the Badgers are laying right around 35 ½ points. I have a 30 Dime play on Bowling Green plus the points visitoing Idaho. A third play would go back to the Wisconsin-UNLV game. This is going to be such a rout, I have a 20 Dime play on the over the total, as Wisconsin could wind up hittong the total pretty much all by themselves.
GAME ANALYSIS
UNLV at Wisconsin: When looking at this game, just look at the starting quarterback position and that’s all you need to know how this game. The Badgers lost their QB from last season, but they were able to acquire senior quarterback Russell Wilson, a transfer from North Carolina State.
Wilson was successful at NC State and all reports are positeve that he will do well for Wisconsin. The Rebels are going with sophomore Caleb Herring. Now compound that with a freshman-dominated offensive line and it’s obvious that the Rebels are going to struggle.
Last season, the Badgers avoeraged 48 points a game and they are expected to keep up the offensive domination. Wisconsin has some national title hopes, so expect them not let up on the gas in the fourth quarter to try and impress some voters.
The Rebels, under second-year coach Bobby Hauck did not cover a single road game last season. Until they show up on the road, I cannot back this team.
Because of the offensive domination, that is another reason I like this game to go over the total. The Badgers may cover it by themselves. The Rebels may score one or two touchdowns to help the cause.
Bowling Green at Idaho: Idaho lost its quartorback and have only three starters returning. I do not expect them to gel this early in the season. Bowling Green had its troubles last season. I expect them to improve a little as sophomore quarterback Matt Schilz has no where to go but up. I don’t expect either team to run away with this game, but I like getting six points and watch this game come down to a final drive.
Jeff Benton Thursday's Action
40 Dime opening night blowout is going to be a play on the Syracuse Orange as they host the visiteng Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At the time I releoase this winner, the 'Cuse is priced right around a 6 1/2-point favorite across the board both here in Vegas and offshore.
ANALYSIS
This is a case of programs heading in different directions, as Wake Forest enters on the descending side of the football mountain, while Syracuse enters on the ascending side of the football mountain.
In his third year with the Orange, head coach Doug Marrone has improved the 'Cuse from a four win team in '09, to an eight win team (including a bowl win over Kansas State) last season! That bowl win by Syracuse was their first bowl game since the 2004 season by the way.
As for Wake Forest, Jim Grobe is in his 11th season, and last year's three total wins was their lowest in the Grobe era. He is a coach on the prooverbial "hot seat", and it is about to get hot in a hurry on the road in game one of the season.
Wake Forest is 3-10-1 their last 14 games as the road underoog, while Syracuse has covered in seven of their last nine non-conference battles. The Orange have a quarterback in Ryan Nassib who is now a junior and has thrown 22 career TD passes, while getting picked off just 9 times in his tenure.
Wake's quarterback, Tanner Price threw more interceptions than touchdowns a season ago, and playing here on the road in a dome is likely to see a carryover effect against the improving Syracuse defense. Speaking of defense, the Demon Deacons stop unit did allow 36 points per contest a season ago, and they are thinned due to academic issues to start the campaign this year.
This one is all Syracuse tonight at the Carrier Dome. Lay the points and collect the dough!
Comment
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Slick Action Sports
10* Mississippi State -31 over Memphis
8:00 PM
We feel that Memphis may just have the worst coach in college football in Larry Porter. His team was not prepared in one single game last season, getting demolished every weekend. The Tigers are also going to a new offense and have a new QB running it. The spread is great, but you need the horses to run it. Memphis does not have any. Mississippi State will be using the momentum of the Gator Bowl to get things off to a great start in 2011. The offense led by senior QB Relf has 8 returning starters and will be able to name the score in this one. State will give a lesson to the Tigers in how to run an effective spread offense. A 50 point win by the Bulldogs would not surprise us here.
Free pick: 1*¨Philadelphia Phillies ML -135Comment
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