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Jimmy Boyd 9/1 NFLX Game of the Year
5* Redskins -7 NFLX Game of the Year
3* Wake Forest +6,5
3* LA Angeles
5* Redskins -7 NFLX Game of the Year
3* Wake Forest +6,5
3* LA Angeles
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RICHIE CARRERA
New York/BOSTON UNDER 9.5- 5 Dimes
BALTIMORE +100 over Toronto 5 Dimes
I like Lester to keep the NY/Bos total low, while my hopes are that NY's bullpen can rescue Burnett before he gives up 5 or 6. Even with these great offenses, 9.5 is based more on how poor Burnett has pitched. A statistical regression (or in this case: progression) towards the mean SHOULD occur sooner or later for this once above average starter. In other words, his ERA of 5+ may start to creep down... Then again, have you watched him pitch this year? Either way, I don't think he hurts us in this matchup and I definitely am not afraid to back the under with Lester on the bump.
I love this small home dog Baltimore in this matchup. Baltimore is coming off of an embarrassing loss at home that saw former Jay's starter JoJo Reyes last only 2 and 2/3s. I am going to play this match-up with or without catcher Matt Wieters behind the plate. I like Hunter (who is fighting down the stretch to establish himself as a viable rotation option for next season) over the lefty Perez, who is really just a stop-gap long reliever. Look for Mark Reynolds and Adam Jones to get back on a roll and chase Perez after 4.Comment
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SHARP MOVES
UNDER 9.5 - Kansas City / Detroit
OVER 7.5 - Washington / Atlanta
#171/#172 - OVER 52.5 - Buffalo U / Pittsburgh U
#142 - Western Kentucky +18
#141/#142 - UNDER 50.5 Kentucky / Western Kentucky
#131 - UNLV +35
#125 - Tennessee Titans +2.5
#105 - Kansas City Chiefs +2.5Comment
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LT Profits
MLB
Blue Jays/Orioles UNDER 9.5 -105
Royals/Tigers UNDER 9 +100
NFLX
Lions/Bills UNDER 39.5 -103
Colts +3.5 -103
Eagles -3 -128
Buccaneers/Redskins UNDER 35.5 -105
Panthers -2.5 -115
Texans/Vikings UNDER 37.5 -105
Titans +118 ML
Broncos/Cardinals UNDER 40.5 -108
49ers/Chargers UNDER 38 -105
Patriots -7.5 -115Comment
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Wunderdog
Game: Toronto at Baltimore (12:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toronto -115 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.6)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 9.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Toronto comes into Camden Yards with a strong offense and a winning road record, fourth in baseball in runs scored and slugging. They've won two of three, scoring 25 runs, and that offense was on display yesterday in a 13-0 pounding. Toronto goes with a terrific arm in lefty Luis Perez, who has a 3.29 ERA on the season and 1.64 his last three starts. The Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six games as a road favorite while the Orioles are 19-40 in their last 59 overall. Baltimore goes with Tommy Hunter, who is not a strikeout pitcher and sports a 4.98 ERA for the season, 5.40 his last three starts. He has been awful in 27 career innings against Toronto, with a 6.83 ERA. And the Orioles are 8-17 in their last 25 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Play the Blue Jays. In addition, this is a high total with an Orioles offense that has been in a slump, scoring a total of 13 runs the last five games. They won't score many against Perez and the UNDER is 10-4 in umpire Joe West's last 14 games behind home plate with Baltimore involved. Play the Blue Jays and the UNDER.
Game: Kansas City at Detroit (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Detroit -175 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.1)
Kansas City is out of any pennant race, while the Tigers are trying to hold onto first place ahead of Cleveland. Detroit is great at home and has a powerful offense, No. 8 in runs, No. 6 in on-base percentage and No. 7 in slugging. All those numbers are even more impressive when you realize they play in a big park like Comerica. They will score off KC starter Danny Duffy (3-8, 5.55 ERA), who has been hittable and has control problems, walking 45 in 94 innings, which is common with young pitchers. Kansas City has fallen to last place in the division while riding a 7-16 run. This is also a brutal situational spot for the Royals, playing their 10th straight road game. They have looked out of gas the last two games, scoring 5 runs total (both losses). The Royals are 1-10 in Duffy's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record while the Tigers are 40-14 in their last 54 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Play the Tigers.
Game: St. Louis at Milwaukee (4:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on St. Louis +175 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 3.5)
The pressure is on St. Louis here as they need a run to try and catch Milwaukee or have a shot at a Wild Card. There's nothing wrong with this Cardinals offense, ranking No. 5 in runs scored, third in OBP and No. 5 in slugging. They are making a run, winning five of six, including winning the last two games in Milwaukee as a dog each time, outscoring the Brewers 10-4. In fact, the Cardinals are 4-0 in their last four games as a road underdog. This is a hitter's park in Milwaukee, which helps the St. Louis offense. Most teams don't like facing Yovani Gallardo, but the Cardinals have owned him, as he is 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA against them. Play the Cardinals.
Game: Florida at New York Mets (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on New York Mets -110 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
Florida is getting some respect with this betting number, but why? The Marlins are in last place and 6-20 in their last 26 overall. Starter Clay Hensley is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA and in his last three starts have been worse with a 7.80 ERA. Florida is 1-5 his last six starts. The Marlins are also 2-10 in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. New York is in the middle of the pack in this tough division, close to .500, and the offense has been decent, No. 13 in runs scored, No. 7 in batting average and fourth in on-base percentage. Miguel Batista gets a fresh start, called up from Triple A, and the Mets are 5-1 in their last six against the National League East. Play the Mets.
Wed. (0-2)(-4*) YTD (338-349-5) (-81.6*)Comment
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