9-11-11

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Free Silver Key Pick for Sunday NFL Football

ST. LOUIS +4.5 over Philadelphia

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Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Chicago Bears +3 over Atlanta Falcons

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

BlueJays -165 over Orioles

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ATS Lock Blitz Newsletter

MLB: Tampa

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FANTASY SPORTS GAMETIME

MLB Baseball Sunday
Play Detroit (-230) over Minnesota (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:10 PM EST
Detroit has won 10 of the last 11 games and they have also won 17 of the last 20 games when playing as a favorite of -200 or higher. Doug Fister has won 3 consecutive home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 0.83.

Play Arizona (-200) over San Diego (Bonus)
Starts at 4:10 PM EST

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Don Wallace Sports

(461) INDIANAPOLIS (+9 un44)
(462) HOUSTON(-9 ov44)
Sunday, September 11th, 2011, 12:00 PM CST
Take: (462) HOUSTON
Analysis: Indianapolis has dominated the all-time series with Houston, having emerged victorious in 16 of the 18 games played between the divisional foes since the Texas entered the NFL as an expansion franchise in 2002. In addition to its previously noted win in last year's season-opener, Houston defeated the Colts by a 27-24 count at Reliant Stadium in 2006. Kubiak is 2-8 against the Colts in his career during his tenure as the Texans' head coach, while Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell is 3-1 against both Kubiak and Houston as a head man. The Colts appear to be heading into unfamiliar territory without Manning and that is bad news against a Texans club that is ready to show the NFL it is a playoff-ready team. Houston's biggest disadvantage was its secondary and it was still able to win a shootout at home over Indianapolis a season ago. The Colts have long been a thorn in the Texans' side, but no Manning will leave them on their heels a bit in this one. HOUSTON 38 INDIANAPOLIS 17

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Rick Needham

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Monday September 12th, 2011 7:00PM EST, NFL Football Week 1 Sun Life Stadium Miami, Florida

Point Spread: NE -7/MIA 7
Over/Under Total: 45

The Miami Dolphins will have the luxury of hosting the first Monday Night Football Game of the new NFL season when they host the New England Patriots at FBZ Sun Life Stadium. The Dolphins look to rebound after a disappointing 7-9 campaign in 2010. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they will start their season off against one of the best teams in the NFL by way of the New England Patriots. In fact, the Patriots dominated their AFC East rivals in 2010 by outscoring Miami 79-21 combined in their two meetings. This season the Patriots have added more talent on both sides of the ball and looked poised to make a run at another AFC Championship.

New England added two big names on both sides of the ball over the off-season despite both players having well-known character issues. On offense, the Patriots signed WR Chad Ochocinco in hopes to find another weapon for QB Tom Brady. It has been stated that Ochocinco's work ethic has declined over the past few years, which reflect his numbers on the field. However, he is still a great athlete that can be a big time player in the Patriots' offense. If Ochocinco can stay focused, there is not any reason to expect that he will not be a big contributor for the offense. Fortunately for Ochocinco, he will not have to carry the offense along in the receiving game like he has with some of his prior teams. WR Wes Welker was the team's leading receiver last season with 86 catches for 848 yards and 7 scores. Considering the fact Welker is healthier this season, he should be primed for an even better season. If both guys stay healthy, this should be an even more dangerous Patriots offense in 2011.

Despite little receiving help in 2010, QB Tom Brady still posted dominant numbers. Brady completed 66% passing for 3,900 yards with 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. It's hard to believe that Brady could improve on those numbers from last season, but it is also very possible if the receiving core stays healthy. As good as the Patriots are on offense; Coach Belichick hopes they will also be on the defensive side of the ball. New England was inconsistent in 2010 giving up over 360 yards per game in a defense that ranked 25th overall. This season New England added troubled DT Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line. Haynesworth's previous troubles have been well documented, but he is still one of the most dominating forces among the defensive front in the NFL when he wants to be. Sure Haynesworth has been a nuisance in the past, but this could be his last opportunity to play football as well. Considering the fact Haynesworth is not making ridiculous amounts of FBZ money any longer by sitting on the bench, I really expect him to come out and be a force defensively. With the help of some additional depth among the defensive front, the Patriots should be an improved bunch in 2011 overall.

Miami on the other hand is a team with a lot more questions entering 2011. QB Chad Henne took over the starting job in 2010, but was plagued by inconsistency completing 61% for 3,301 yards with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. In fact, it was the 2nd straight season that Henne finished the year with more interceptions thrown than touchdowns. This season Henne will again be the starter in possibly what will be his make or break year for the Dolphins.

In the receiving game, the Dolphins are led by WR Brandon Marshall who is among the best receivers in the NFL. In 2010, Marshall caught 86 passes for 1,014 yards with 3 touchdowns. While those numbers are not staggering, they are pretty solid if you consider how much Miami struggled in the passing game. Marshall is a guy that can potentially lead this Miami team with big play ability if someone (Henne) can just get him the ball on a consistent basis. One of the bigger questions for the Miami offense in 2011 will be the search for a rushing game. Both starting running backs from 2010 in Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown departed from the team over the off-season. The Dolphins did acquire running back Reggie Bush from New Orleans. However, Bush has yet to prove that he can be an every down back in the NFL. Bush has had some brilliant moments catching passes out of the backfield during his tenure with the Saints, but has yet to prove he can be a reliable every down threat. If Bush fails to yield the threat of a rushing game, it will make things even more difficult for the struggling Henne at quarterback. Defensively, the Dolphins return the majority of a group that ranked 6th overall last season giving up only 309 yards per game. The Dolphins defense is loaded with talent. Leading the group is LB Cameron Wake. Wake recorded the 2nd most sacks in the NFL last season with 14 total while earning a trip to the Pro Bowl. Most believe the defense will be every bit as solid this season as they gained more experience over the off-season. Therefore, the Miami offense's ability to score points will likely be the determining factor in deciding if the Dolphins have a successful season.

BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The simple fact here is the Dolphins are retracting and the Patriots are progressing from a team stand point. The Patriots appear to have an offense that could virtually become unstoppable this season and it is hard to believe that an offense as inconsistent as Miami will be able to keep pace. Therefore, I think this is another New England blowout just like their last 2 meetings over Miami. I'll TAKE NEW ENGLAND TO WIN AND COVER!


RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS

THE UNDER (42) LIONS @ BUCS
RAIDERS OVER BRONCOS (-3.0)

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MLB Write-Up


Sunday, September 11

Hot pitchers
-- JVazquez is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts. McDonald has a 2.03 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Strasburg threw five shutout innings (56 PT) in his 2011 debut. Sosa is 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts.
-- Hudson is 5-2, 2.80 in his last eight starts.
-- Phillies won Worley's last 14 starts (3-0, 2.86 in last four).
-- Collmenter is 3-1, 1.86 in his last six starts.
-- Kuroda is 4-1, 3.94 in his last five starts. Bumgarner is 3-0, 1.19 in his last three outings.
-- 40-year old Batista is 1-0, 2.25 in two starts for the Mets.

-- Detroit won last four Fister starts (3-0, 1.21).
-- Shields is 3-0, 0.69 in his last three starts. Lester is 4-0, 1.45 in his last five starts.
-- Jimenez is 1-1, 3.15 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 5-1, 2.50 in his last six starts.
-- Santana is 3-2, 2.67 in his last eight home starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Westbrook is 2-2, 5.16 in his last five starts.
-- Gallardo is 2-3, 4.78 in his last six starts.
-- Volquez is 1-2, 7.71 in his last four starts, last of which was July 5.
This is MLB debut for Pomeranz; he was 4-3, 1.78 in 20 minor league starts this season.
-- Leblanc is 2-2, 6.33 in his last four starts.
-- Garza has a 5.12 RA in his last three starts.

-- Diamond is 1-3, 5.32 in four starts this season.
-- Hunter is 1-1, 7.27 in his last four starts. McGowan is 20-22, 4.73 in 53 career starts; this is his first MLB start since 2008.
-- Stewart is 1-1, 5.95 in his last three starts.
-- Outman is 2-3, 4.54 in his last six starts, last of which was July 2.
-- FGarcia has a 4.62 RA in his last seven starts.
-- AVasquez is 1-2, 12.60 in his three starts this year. Teaford is making his first MLB start; he's thrown 28 innings in 23 games. He made three minor league starts this season.

Totals
-- Over is 18-8 in Pittsburgh's last 26 home games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in Washington's last nine home games.
-- Four of Garza's last five road starts went over the total.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in Phillies' last nine road games.
-- Last six St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 11-3 in last fourteen games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 8-2 in San Diego's last ten road games.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Kuroda starts.

-- Over is 6-2-1 in Toronto's last nine home games.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Minnesota's last eleven road games.
-- Under is 11-5-2 in Tampa Bay's last 18 home games.
-- Seven of last nine Texas games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-1 in Cleveland's last eight road games.
-- Under is 10-4 in Bronx Bombers' last fourteen games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Seattle's last ten home games.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won five of their last seven games.
-- Phillies won their last six games, outscoring foes 33-12.
-- Mets are 11-6 in their last 17 games.
-- Cardinals are 11-4 in their last fifteen games.
-- Diamondbacks won their last fifteen home games.
-- Dodgers won ten of their last twelve road games.

-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven home games.
-- Detroit won ten of its last eleven games.
-- Tampa Bay won six of its last seven games.
-- Rangers are 6-0 in game after their last six losses.
-- White Sox won six of their last eight home games.
-- Angels won six of their last eight games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 19 of their last 27 home games.
-- Braves lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Washington lost 13 of its last 17 games. Astros lost six of their last eight games.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last ten road games.
-- Milwaukee lost its last five games, scoring nine runs.
-- Rockies lost nine of their last 14 games. Cincinnati lost eight of its last twelve games.
-- San Diego lost its last ten road games.
-- Giants lost seven of their last nine home games.

-- Orioles lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Red Sox lost six of their last seven games.
-- A's lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Indians lost six of their last eight games.
-- Bronx is 9-10 in its last 19 road games.
-- Mariners lost seven of their last nine games. Royals are 7-9 in their last sixteen games.

Umpires
-- Chi-NY-- Underdogs are 7-3, over 6-3-1 in last 10 Schrieber games.
-- LA-SF-- Last six Carapazza games stayed under the total.
-- Cin-Col-- Last five Kellogg games went over the total.
-- Fla-Pitt-- Five of last Meals games went over the total.
-- Hst-Wsh-- Under is 8-3 in last eleven Emmel games.
-- Phil-Mil-- Four of last five Davis games stayed under total.
-- Atl-StL-- Five of last six Guccione games went over the total.
-- SD-Az-- Over is 7-3-1 in last ten Tschida games.

-- Blt-Tor-- Underdogs won five of last six Cousins games.
-- Min-Det-- Underdogs won five of last seven Davidson games.
-- Bos-TB-- Over is 12-1 in last thirteen Demuth games.
-- Clev-Chi-- Underdogs are 10-6 in last sixteen O'Nora games.
-- A's-Tex-- Three of last four Hoye games went over the total.
-- NY-LA-- Over is 16-2-2 in last twenty Vanover games.
-- KC-Sea-- Three of last four TBarrettgames went over the total.

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Win or Lose Sports Betting

Here is todays POD
Rot # 459 Buffalo +5 NFL -105 $30
Rot # 459 Buffalo ML NFL +200 $20

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Khaliagent Sports

"Figure Four Leg Lock" (5-1 +37.9 units)

Bears +1 (+104) (bet 10 units to win 10.4 units)

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Al Demarco 15 - Steelers

A REDD - 30 TITANS 30 VIKINGS 30 STEELERS

BOB VALENTINO - 50 ON RAMS

CHUCK OBRIEN - 40 ON TITANS

MANCINI - 30 on PANTHERS

BUDIN - 25 on LIONS

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - 9/11

4* Best Bet = SAN DIEGO
3* = SAN FRANCISCO
2* = "under" on Bills/Chiefs
2* = "under" on Bengals/Browns
2* = "under" on Bears/Falcons
2* = Miami on Monday night

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jimmy boyd

bills big play
cowboys med
bengals small

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K & B Sports
Houston
Jacksonville
Washington

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Sixth Sense

3% DETROIT/TAMPA BAY OVER 41.5

Adding this total play.

Tampa Bay inserted LeGarrette Blount for full time duty in their week eight game at Arizona last year. From that point on they scored at least 20 points in eight of the final ten games. The two games they did not score at least 20 points were on the road at Baltimore and Washington who were both good defenses. From that same point on last year, TB scored 31, 24, 20 and 38 points at home. In games at home against above average offenses, they allowed 38, 31, 28 and 23 points. The 23 points allowed were against Detroit.

Detroit has now allowed 20 or more points in 28 of their last 32 road games. They did hold two opponents to under 20 on the road last year - Chicago opening week and Buffalo, who wasn't very good on offense last year and technically played that game in Toronto. On the road against good offenses last year they allowed 24, 28, 28, 35 and 20 points.

Both teams should get to at least 20 points in this game and if that happens, this game will go over the total.