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Dolphins
Dolphins
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POINTWISE PHONES:
2* OaklandComment
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INDIAN COWBOY
4* NFL: New England/Miami Total OVERComment
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Doc sports
3* denver broncos over 40Comment
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DCI
New England 29, MIAMI 14
Oakland 32, DENVER 25Comment
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Ace-Ace
Take #479 New England (-7) over Miami (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 12)Comment
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Dave Essler
2* Over NE/MiamiComment
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Sixth Sense
BEST BETS
YTD 0-0
3% DENVER –3 No higher than -3
New England –6.5 MIAMI 46
NE averaged 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.2yps against 5.9yps and 5.9yppl against 5.1yppl. They allowed 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.2yppl.
Miami averaged just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.0yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl. They allowed 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl.
I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor NE by just one point and predict about 48 points.
NE won here last year 41-14 but they were actually out played from the line of scrimmage. Special teams and turnovers did them in. As good as the Miami defense was last year, they have now allowed at least 21 points in their last nine home games against teams with above average offenses, including at least 27 points in seven of those nine games. Miami is also looking to throw the ball more this year, which means this game has a chance to be higher scoring than “they” think. NEW ENGLAND 30 MIAMI 23
DENVER –3 Oakland 40.5
Oakland averaged a whopping 5.0ypr against 4.1ypr last year. They averaged just 5.9yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl.
Denver averaged 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allowed 4.7ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.2yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl.
Denver qualifies in week one situations, which are 61-22-3 and 46-16-5. Numbers favor Oakland by two points before accounting for the situations and predict about 50 points.
Denver was blown out twice last year by Oakland, who literally ran roughshod over them in both games. The Broncos have some injuries in the interior of their defensive line but also get back their best player, Elmis Dumervil and draft choices Von Miller and Rahim Moore to improve the defense.
Oakland lost their best defensive player in Nnamdi Asomugha and they are without their best offensive player TE Zach Miller who moved on to Seattle.
This is more of a play against the Raiders and based on a Denver team which should be improved. The value isn’t there but the situations are very strong and they out weigh the value. DENVER 30 OAKLAND 20Comment
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Patriots at Dolphins: Who'll cover the spread?
We’ve got a double-header for the first edition of Monday Night Football this season but we’re zeroing on the first game in this week’s debate.
Russ Loede from PatriotsGab.com tells us why New England is the right play while Kevin Nogle from ThePhinsider.com argues in favor of the home underdog.
WHY THE PATRIOTS COVER
Henne without run game
For the Dolphins to function, they have to run the football and control the clock against the Patriots. Rookie running back Daniel Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury and I don't believe the Fish can show New England a balanced offensive attack with Reggie Bush and Larry “I can’t believe I’m not retired” Johnson running the ball.
Bill Belichick, is going to have fun playing games with the erratic and mistake-prone Chad Henne knowing the ground game is absent.
Devin McCourty
A budding star at cornerback, the second-year pro from Rutgers will be asked to shadow the Dolphins best playmaker; Brandon Marshall. McCourty will shut down Marshall and take away Miami’s best offensive weapon in the process.
Brady's quick release
Cameron Wake is a force to be reckoned with but the Pats can limit the pass rusher because of Brady's precise pocket presence. The 2010 NFL MVP will operate fully aware of Wake's presence and ability to change a game.
Fortunately, the scintillating signal caller has a vast array of intermediate weapons to sling the rock to before Cam reaches him. New England’s offense is filled with players who can find space and get open quickly. Mismatches will abound and Brady and the Patriots will find ways to pick apart the Dolphins’ pass defense.
WHY THE DOLPHINS COVER THE SPREAD
Dolphins Defense
For some reason, Miami's sixth ranked defense from last season has been completely forgotten at the start of this year - and all the Dolphins did was get better.
They have the most incredibly deep defensive line I have ever seen. Jared Odrick, last season's first round draft choice who sat out the year on IR, is now the third string right defensive end behind Randy Starks and Phillip Merling - yet Ordick is seen as a starting caliber defensive end.
Then there's the emergence of Cameron Wake as an elite pass rusher. With his 14 sacks last year and Pro Bowl selection, you would think people would respect the Dolphins' ability to get to the quarterback, but for some reason, they aren't.
And finally, our cornerbacks are amazing. They may not become the "best tandem in the NFL," as Vontae Davis declared earlier this preseason, but they (Davis and Sean Smith) are going to be right there with the best.
This defense is going to be scary, and people just don't realize it yet.
New Offense
Last year, the Dolphins ran an erratic offense. Every time they got into a rhythm, the offensive coordinator Dan Henning would call a random play that would kill the drive. This year, with offensive coordinator Brain Daboll, things appear to be different.
Everyone in Miami is talking about how the offense is "attacking" and "explosive." In 2008, the Dolphins unleashed the Wildcat formation on the Patriots and decimated them with it. The Dolphins will look to establish this new offense in much the same way.
Chad Henne
We all know the Dolphins were talking with the Denver Broncos about acquiring quarterback Kyle Orton. But, that didn't happen, so everyone assumes Miami is a mess behind center.
But, Chad Henne hasn't played like a mess. He actually looked good this preseason and he could be the guy who finally solidifies the QB position in Miami.
Daboll's offense allows Henne to actually audible to any play necessary, instead of just a one play "check with me" option like last year, which will give Henne some needed freedom.
In today's NFL, the success of first year starters like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez have people expecting a rookie to always come in and immediately demonstrate greatness. We forget that Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady all sat and developed before getting on to the field. Chad Henne got one year under Chad Pennington before he was made the starter.
Now, in his third year as that starter, Henne appears ready to actually take the reins.Comment
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Hot lines: Monday’s best MLB bets
Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros (+160, 7.5)
Roy Oswalt can probably expect a warm welcome from Houston Astros fans Monday as he makes his first return to Houston since last summer’s deal that sent him to Philly. After all, it’s not like Astros supporters have much else to cheer about.
And maybe this is the kind of game that’ll finally get Oswalt going. He didn’t allow a hit through six innings last week in a 3-2 win over the Braves.
“Tonight I felt pretty strong the whole game,” Oswalt told reporters after the game. “Two days ago I felt like my arm strength is coming back a little more. We’ve worked on my mechanics a little bit, freed me up to get on top of the ball. It felt like I could place my fastball a little bit better.”
You have to think he’ll put on a good show Monday in Texas. We don’t normally play chalk this high, but it’s probably worth it in this spot.
Pick: Phillies
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox (-135, 8.5)
The Detroit Tigers extended their winning streak to nine games by completing a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.
Doug Fister threw seven shutout innings and allowed just three hits as the Tigers slipped by the Twins 2-1 to extend the winning streak, which is the longest in franchise history since the club won nine straight on its way to the 1984 World Series title.
Now the Tigers have a chance to all but lock up their first division title since 1987 with three games against the White Sox. Detroit swept a three-game set with the White Sox last week by putting 35 combined runs on the board.
The Tigers send Rick Porcello to the mound and he has looked good over his last three outings while the club averaged 7.7 runs of support for him.
Pick: TigersComment
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Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (14-11, 3.15 ERA)
King Felix is on another one of his hot streaks, having won each of his last three starts while allowing just three runs over that span. He has struck out 26 batters during the streak and is coming off consecutive 2-1 wins. He went eight innings last week against the Angels before telling manager Eric Wedge he was done for the night.
"I can't lie, I was a little tired in the end,'' Hernandez told reporters. "He asked me. And I've got to be honest. I said 'I'm going to be honest, we've got to win this game.' ''
Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers (13-8, 4.87 ERA)
The Tigers have won four straight with Porcello on the mound and he has allowed just one run in two of his last three outings. Right now he really has his sinker going, which induced 13 ground-ball outs in a 10-1 win at Cleveland last week.
"He kept the ball on the ground, and that’s a big thing for him,” manager Jim Leyland said of Porcello.” That usually tells you that he’s got the ball darting around a little bit with pretty late movement and they’re mis-hitting the ball a little bit."
Slumping
Dontrelle Willis, Cincinnati Reds (0-5, 4.21 ERA)
Willis heads into Monday’s tilt with the Cubs still searching for his first win of the season in his 12th start. Despite the winless drought, Willis hasn’t been terrible. His major issue lately is his control after walking five batters in each of his last three outings. Willis gave up all four runs in a 4-3 loss to the Cubs last week.
Chris Volstad, Florida Marlins (5-12, 5.37 ERA)
Volstad has dropped his last four decisions and the Marlins have lost each of his last trips to the hill, but he can’t take all the blame. The 6-foot-8 starter has allowed only two earned runs in each of his last two starts and hasn’t yielded more than four earned runs since a blowout loss to the Phillies in early July.Comment
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