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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK
Arizona +120 over the Dodgers
Arizona +120 over the Dodgers
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MLB
Write-Up
Monday, September 12
Hot pitchers
-- Cardinals won six of last seven Lohse starts.
-- Beachy is 4-0, 3.00 in his last eight starts.
-- Dickey is 3-0, 1.67 in his last four starts.
-- Former Astro Oswalt is 3-1, 3.71 in his last five starts. Former Phil Myers is 1-0, 1.84 in his last couple starts.
-- Lilly is 3-3, 2.70 in his last eight starts.
-- Giants won both Surkamp starts (1-0, 3.27). Harang has a 2.77 RA in his last four starts.
-- Britton is 3-0, 2.74 in his last four starts.
-- Porcello is 2-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Pineiro is 1-0, 2.77 in his last couple starts.
-- Hernandez is 3-0, 1.57 in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Lincoln has a 2.50 RA in his last three starts.
-- Volstad is 0-4, 4.85 in his last five starts.
-- Detwiler is 1-5, 5.40 in his last six starts.
-- Lopez is 1-3, 5.16 in his last four starts. Willis is 0-3, 5.22 in his last five starts.
-- Saunders is 2-4, 5.62 in his last seven starts.
-- Niemann is 1-3, 7.33 in his last four starts.
-- Danks is 2-2, 5.08 in his last six starts.
-- Gonzalez is 3-6, 6.28 in his last nine starts.
-- Hughes is 0-1, 8.79 in his last three starts.
Totals
-- Over is 18-9 in Pittsburgh's last 27 home games.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in Atlanta's last ten home games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Washington's last dozen road games.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Phillies' last ten road games.
-- Five of last seven Arizona road games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-3 in San Diego's last eleven road games.
-- Over is 11-4 in Baltimore's last fifteen home games.
-- Over is 13-1-2 in Porcello's last sixteen starts.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Angels' last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in Seattle's last eleven home games.
Hot Teams
-- Cardinals are 12-4 in their last sixteen games.
-- Marlins won six of their last eight games.
-- Phillies won six of their last seven games.
-- Arizona won 16 of its last 19 games. Dodgers won 15 of last 19.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last eight games.
-- Detroit won 11 of its last 12 games. White Sox won six of their last nine home games.
-- Oakland is 8-4 in its last 12 home games. Angels won six of their last nine games.
Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost 20 of their last 28 home games.
-- Braves lost eight of their last eleven games.
-- Washington lost 13 of its last 18 games. Mets lost three of four.
-- Cubs lost seven of their last eleven road games. Cincinnati lost nine of its last thirteen games.
-- Astros lost seven of their last nine games.
-- San Diego lost 10 of its last 11 road games. Giants lost seven of their last ten home games.
-- Orioles lost four of their last five home games.
-- Bronx is 10-10 in its last 20 road games. Mariners lost eight of their last ten games.Comment
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Iron Horse
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
Denver finished last season at 4-12 SU and fired HC McDaniels, replacing him with John Fox. Fox will start by hosting Division rival Oakland, who crushed the Broncos in both meetings last season, 39-23 and 59-14, winning by 16 and 45 points! Oakland improved to 8-8 SU last season while sweeping their AFC West Division games, posting a 6-0 SU & ATS, against Denver, Kansas City and San Diego. The Raiders averaged 26 points per game last year and don't expect new Denver HC Fox to have the answers in his first game with the Broncos to stop an offense that scored 98 points on them during the last 2 meetings- Take the points with this explosive Raiders offense. 10* Play On OaklandComment
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SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI +7½ over New England
What is value? Value is getting more points than we should be or getting a bigger payout on the money line than we should be. Value often occurs when wagering against very popular teams like the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Red Wings, Ohio State Buckeyes, Duke Blue Devils and many more. Value also occurs when public perception on a specific team is too high or too low and we’re surely going to see that in next week’s NFL lines after some serious blowouts in week one. Just because you’re getting value doesn’t mean you’re going to win but it’s the smart way to bet and over the long haul, you’re likely going to win more games than you lose. Enter the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins. The Patriots are among the most popular teams in the NFL while Miami is perceived as a weak football team. Miami may indeed turn out to be a weak club; time will tell. We understand that it’s hard to root for Chad Henne to outduel one of the best quarterbacks ever at the position in Tom Brady. But Wagering 101 teaches us that such sentiment inflates the number and that provides value on the less popular choice. Play: Miami +7½ (No bets).
DENVER –3½ over Oakland
While some are high on the Raiders this season, we see a team that has a rookie head coach working from a short pre-season, a 59% passer in Jason Campbell and a team that lost its best player - Nnamdi Asomugha- via free agency while doing nothing that would indicate improvement. One might also want to consider what Oakland did to Denver last season. In two games last year, the Raiders humiliated the Broncs by a combined score of 98-37. That’s not just a loss or a couple of losses. That’s serious disgrace and this is not the same Denver club as the one we saw last season. John Fox, a defensive minded coach, steps in and he’s been stressing defense and running the ball ever since he got here. Kyle Orton is very capable at the QB position and remains perhaps the most underappreciated QB in the game. Orton is sharp with his passes and he makes smart decisions, not bonehead decisions like some. The Broncos defense a season ago was non-existent but they’ll be a whole lot better this year with some good off-season signings and under the tutelage of Fox. Still, the public money is coming in on the Broncos and that has us a little nervous, thus we’ll back off on both games tonight and be happy with our 4-2 week 1 results. Play: Denver –3½ (No bets).Comment
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David Banks
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
The first leg of Monday Night Football’s nationally televised ESPN broadcast takes us to Sun Life Stadium for a good old fashioned AFC East throw down between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins; the early kick is slated for 7:00 ET.
Though the Patriots have won the division in each of the last two seasons, head coach Bill Belichick’s squad is still searching for that playoff win that has eluded them since that memorable 2007 season where they went undefeated up until the Super Bowl. In order to become better on both sides of the ball, upper management went out and inked WR Chad Ochocinco and DT Albert Haynesworth in the off-season to add to the team’s already impressive roster. Because of it, the Patriots are now the odds on favorites to hoist the Lombardi Trophy at +335; ahead of the Packers who check in with a +355 return. New England went 6-2 SU & ATS away from Gillette Stadium last season.
Since winning the AFC East in head coach Tony Sparano’s inaugural season as the franchise’s top dog back in 2008, the Dolphins have posted back-to-back 7-9 SU & 8-8 ATS seasons. QB play really hampered the offense in 2010 as did possessing a pair of aging backs in the backfield in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. This season, it’s out with the old and in with the new as RBs Reggie Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas will now take the hand-offs, with the offense hoping QB Chad Henne will start to limit his errant tosses and once again become a 3000 yard passer. With WRs Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess and Ryan Hartline, the offense should greatly improve upon its 17.1 PPG average from a year ago.
New England made a mockery of these team’s pair of battles a year ago by trouncing the Fins by an aggregate score of 79-21; the ‘over’ cashed in both contests. The road team has covered six of the L/8 overall in this rivalry with the ‘over’ holding a 5-3 advantage. New England has instilled confidence in its backers having covered 22 of the L/32 times it went off the board as a road favorite. A 44-21-3 ATS tally their L/68 away from Foxborough also shows how much the Pats make it a point to represent well away from home. On the flipside, Miami is 11-3 ATS its L/14 when dogged and 7-5 ATS its L/12 vs. divisional opposition. However, the Fins have gotten off to slow starts recently going 3-11-2 ATS their L/15 games played in the month of September, and they’ve also been woeful as hosts managing covers in just 17 of their L/63 games played in front of the hometown faithful.
PICK: NE/MIAMI OVERComment
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FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball Monday
Play Atlanta (-215) over Florida (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 7:10 PM EST
Atlanta pitcher, Brandon Beachy has won 2 consecutive games when pitching on a Monday and he is 7-2 in all games this season with an ERA of 3.29. Florida pitcher, Chris Volstad has lost 8 of the last 10 games vs. division opponents and he has also lost 3 consecutive games as an underdog of +150 or higher.
Play Philadelphia (-175) over Houston (Bonus)Comment
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BANG THE BOOK
Monday's Best NFL Bets
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7, 45.5)
In the first game of a double dip on ESPN’s Monday Night Football, NFL bettors will get their chance to sink their teeth into the clash at Sun Life Stadium between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.
The Pats are the runaway favorites on the Super Bowl odds this year, as they are as low as +400 at some sportsbooks. They definitely do look to be locked and loaded after bringing in both DT Albert Haynesworth and WR Chad Ochocinco in the offseason. It hasn’t seemed to matter who is out there at wide receiver though, as QB Tom Brady has always made the best of every situation. You know if he stays healthy that Brady is good for over 4,000 passing yards and probably at least 30 scores on the season, and he has had a great history playing against these Dolphins, putting up some absolutely tremendous games. Last season alone, the Patriots scored a whopping 79 points in two games against Miami, with Brady throwing three scores in those two games. RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis had two big games against the Dolphins last year as well, accounting for over 150 total yards on the ground and a pair of TDs in the two meetings. When you combine defense and special teams TDs, New England actually outscored the Dolphins’ entire team 28-21.
One game doesn’t make an entire 16 game season, but for Head Coach Tony Sparano and QB Chad Henne, this is clearly the biggest game that either one has partaken in. The Fins were blown out of the water by New England twice last year, and with both men literally just barely hanging on to their jobs, posting another 20+ point defeat at home in primetime won’t sit well with the hometown faithful. However, there are a lot more issues with the Dolphins than just the quarterback and the head coach. The running game is only going to really have RB Reggie Bush and RB Larry Johnson to work with in all likelihood, as RB Daniel Thomas, the rookie out of Kansas State, is in the doghouse and is injured. The defense is incredibly young as well, and though players like DE Koa Misi and some of the other young guns will get there eventually, it’s clear that this unit isn’t ready to shut down an offense like New England’s.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Miami Dolphins Pick: That being said, this game is too important for the Dolphins to bet against them at this price. Getting a TD is a big, big number in the NFL, especially for a home team, and we’re going to take that score and hope for the best with Miami on MNF.
PICK: Dolphins +7Comment
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