9-14-11

[Mr. IWS]

Benjamin lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk"

"Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB Regular Season

Ben lee won on Tuesday and moved "Back in Black" with the Brewers -$225/Rockies.

For Wednesday "Mr Chalk" once again likes the Brewers -$185/Rockies.

"Mr Chalk" is 95-58 +$53 for the 2011 MLB regular season.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Blitz Newsletter

Best Bet: Rockies Over

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks
2 - 0 this week

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to take one step closer towards locking up the NL West pennant when Daniel Hudson leads them into battle against Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the series finale; first pitch from Chavez Ravine is scheduled for 10:10 ET.

It’s been nothing but joyful and lucrative for MLB bettors that have watched this young D’Backs squad gain confidence with every passing week of the season. Manager Kirk Gibson and his staff have turned one of the youngest teams in all of baseball into the most profitable over the course of the season, as the Snakes 86-62 overall record heading into Game 2 on Tuesday night has netted an MLB best $2828 for its wagering supporters. They hold what looks to be an insurmountable 8.5-game lead over the defending champion Giants for the top spot in the division, and their magic # to qualify for the post season now rests at seven-games. Zona’s won five of its L/6 away from Chase Field.

The Dodgers have been a major disappointment out west this season, as the team has grossly failed to form any rhythm with their longest overall winning streak reaching just six games; it was snapped just over a week ago. Having said that, LA has won each of its L/6 series played most recently getting the best of St. Louis, Colorado, San Diego, Atlanta, Washington and San Francisco. Too little too late, but the Dodgers are certainly playing the type of ball fans of the franchise hoped they’d play throughout the entirety of the season. The Dodgers sit an even 36-36 (-$656) at home after dropping this series’ opener on Monday night.

The road team has won eight of these division rivals 13 overall 2011 meetings to date; Tuesday pending. The ‘over’ has cashed each of the L/4 times these teams went at it in Dodgers Stadium. Daniel Hudson enters his 31st start of the season 16-9 with a 3.41 ERA & .256 BAA. He’s 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA & .121 WHIP in two career starts vs. LA, and the Diamondbacks have won each of his L/4 outings against divisional opposition. However, Clayton Kershaw has put forth a season worthy of NL Cy Young Award consideration. He’s 18-5 on a 72 win ball club and sports a stellar 2.36 ERA & 1.00 WHIP with a K/BB ratio of 231/51. LA’s won each of his L/6 and 11 of his 14 overall home starts to date.

PICK: ARIZONA/LA UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

EasyBaseballBetting
Our systems say to go for:

Marlins (+140),
Orioles (+127),
Diamondbacks (+128),
Blue Jays (+108),
Mariners (+181),
Twins (+139),
Tigers (+104),
Athletics (+138),
Nationals (+118).

[Mr. IWS]

MLB
Write-Up


Wednesday, September 14

Hot pitchers
-- Delgado has a 2.81 RA in his last three starts.
-- Jackson is 1-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 2-0, 3.23 in his last six starts.
-- Halladay is 3-1, 2.18 in his last six starts.
-- Latos has a 3.06 RA in his last eight starts. Lincecum is 6-5, 2.12 in his last dozen starts.
-- Marcum has a 2.40 RA in his last six starts. Millwood is 2-1, 3.24 in his last four starts.
-- DHudson is 4-0, 1.42 in his last four starts. Kershaw is 5-0, 1.17 in his last six outings.

-- Romero is 7-1, 2.47 in his last nine starts.
-- Davis is 2-0, 2.87 in his last couple starts.
-- Holland is 2-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
-- Nova is 3-0, 2.73 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Nolasco is 1-2, 8.26 in his last five starts.
-- Morton is 0-3, 8.36 in his last three starts.
-- Peacock is making MLB debut here; he was 15-3, 2.39 in 23 minor league starts this season, 5-1, 3.19 in nine AAA outings. Pelfrey is 1-2, 5.44 in his last eight starts.
-- Coleman is 0-4, 7.29 in his last seven starts.

-- Lackey is 0-3, 9.60 in his last three starts.
-- This is Axelrod's first MLB start; he was 9-3, 2.69 in 24 minor league starts this season.
-- Penny is 1-1, 11.40 in his last three starts.
-- Weaver is 0-3, 9.35 in his last three road starts. Harden is 0-0, 7.63 in his last three outings.
-- Hochevar is 2-3, 4.99 in his last six starts. Hendriks allowed three runs in seven IP in losing his major league debut last week, 3-0.
-- Guthrie is 2-3, 5.64 in his last seven starts.
-- Huff is 1-3, 5.66 in his last four starts.
-- Vargas is 1-3, 8.13 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Over is 19-9 in Pittsburgh's last 28 home games.
-- Under is 6-3-2 in Atlanta's last eleven home games.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Washington's last thirteen road games.
-- Six of last eight Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Norris home starts.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Marcum starts.
-- Six of last eight Arizona road games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-3 in San Diego's last twelve road games.

-- Over is 11-5 in Baltimore's last sixteen home games.
-- Over is 8-3 in Lackey's last eleven starts.
-- Four of last five Penny starts went over the total.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Hochevar starts.
-- Five of seven Huff starts stayed under the total.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in Angels' last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Seattle's last twelve home games.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals are 13-5 in their last eighteen games.
-- Marlins won seven of their last ten games.
-- Nationals won four of their last five games.
-- Houston won three of its last four games.
-- Cubs won six of their last nine games.
-- Giants won their last three games, scoring 19 runs.
-- Arizona won 18 of its last 21 games.

-- Tampa Bay won eight of its last ten games.
-- Blue Jays won four of their last six games.
-- Detroit won 13 of its last 14 games.
-- Royals won their last three games, allowing three runs.
-- Rangers are 7-4 in their last eleven games.
-- Angels won seven of their last ten games. Oakland is 9-5 in its last 14 home games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 9-4 in their last thirteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Pirates lost four of their last five games.
-- Braves lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Mets lost five of their last six games.
-- Cincinnati lost 10 of its last 15 games.
-- Milwaukee lot five of its last seven games. Rockies are 4-11 in their last 15 road games.
-- Phillies lost their last three games, scoring five runs.
-- San Diego lost 12 of its last 13 road games.
-- Dodgers lost their last three games, scoring seven runs.

-- Orioles lost five of their last seven home games.
-- Red Sox lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Indians lost six of their last eight games.
-- White Sox lost four of last five games, allowing 37 runs.
-- Minnesota lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Mariners lost ten of their last twelve games.

Umpires
-- StL-Pitt--Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen West games.
-- Fla-Atl-- Five of last seven Layne games stayed under total.
-- Wsh-NY-- Three of last four Iassogna games went over the total.
-- Chi-Cin-- Underdogs won six of last seven Darling games.
-- Phil-Hst-- Six of last seven Carapazza games stayed under total.
-- Col-Mil-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Hudson games.
-- Az-LA-- Five of last seven BWelke games went over the total.
-- SD-SF-- Under is 5-0-1 in last six Randazzo games.

-- TB-Blt-- Eight of last nine Miller games went over total.
-- Tor-Bos-- Visitor won nine of last ten Hernandez games.
-- Min-KC-- Home side won five of last six Blaser games.
-- Det-Chi-- Four of last five Winters games stayed under total.
-- Cle-Tex-- Over is 7-3 in last ten Bell games.
-- LA-A's-- Favorites won last five Barksdale games.
-- NY-Sea-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Muchinski games.

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 5.5 Giants/Padres

50* Blue Jays -105

[Mr. IWS]

Vic monte
2000* max out special ny yanks -190

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
Wednesday's Selection ...
For Wednesday night, 1500♦ "Raise the Bar" Road Warrior Lock is the Tampa Bay Rays with Davis as the visittng road favdorite over the Baltimore Orioles with Guthrie. As I type my analysis, the Rays are a -140 favorite, and I have a strong feeling the line will only move up, so get down as early as possnble on this one. Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.

Terrible late season loss for the Rays last night, as Tampa can ill-afford to be losing many games with just over 2 weeks left in the regtlar season. That being the case, I will look for Tampa to bounce-back tonight and lay the road wood with Wade Davis tonight as he opposes Jeremy Guthrie.

Tampa is still on a 5-1 run, and an 8-2 overall run their last 10 games, and they have won 5 of the last 7 versdus the O's, and 6 of the last 8 against the Orioles at Camden Yards.

Wade Davis has won his last pair of starts, including a win over Baltimore in which he worked 6-plus innings of 3-run ball. Guthrie is just 7-17 this year, and his last start against Tampa on September 4th saw the Rays reach him for 7 hits and 3 run in his 5 innings worked, as Guthrie took the loss.

Yes, the road chalk is a little bit pricy tonight, but I think there is just one choice in this game, and that is to lay it with Tampa as they conclude their series with Baltimore with a win before heading up to Boston for a very pivotal 4-game set at Fenway this weekend.

Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or NO action on the release.

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Wednesday

Play Philadelphia (-250) over Houston (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 2:10 PM EST

Roy Halladay has won 16 of the last 19 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has also won 10 of the last 13 day games. Roy Halladay has an ERA of 1.64 vs. Houston over his career and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.29.

Play New York Yankees (-200) over Seattle (Bonus)

Play Milwaukee (-185) over Colorado (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

Free Silver Key Pick for Wednesday ML Baseball

TEXAS HOLLAND -L -185 over Cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis -141 over PITTSBURGH: After his first 2 starts with the Cards Edwin Jackson was just 1-1 with a high 5.78, but in his last 7 starts he has gone 3-1 with fine 2.64 ERA. That's the pitcher they were looking to get when they traded him. Edwin has faced Pitt once this year and is 1-0, allowing just 1 ER in 6 innings of work. The Pirate pitching staff was ranked in the top 10 for much of the year, but have since fallen to 16. In their last 10 games they have put up a 4.85 ERA overall and a 6.36 ERA from their starters. Charlie Morton has really helped with the recent bad numbers as he comes in with an 0-3 mark and a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has faced the Cards 3 times this year and he is 1-1 with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.91 WHIP. Far too many men on base, especially vs the Cards who come in hitting .297 with an OBP of .350 vs right-handed pitching in their last 10 games. They have also scored 4.72 rp/9 vs them in that stretch. The Pirate offense has taken a bit of a leave of absence of last as they have averaged just 3.4 rpg in their last 10 games. not gonna get it done vs a Cards team that has it's sights set on catching the Braves in the Wildcard race. Cards take a big one here.


Boston/ Toronto Over 10.5: The last 4 games in this series has seen these teams put up video game like numbers, as they have averaged 17.5 rpg over that stretch and there is 2 starters on the mound today that should ensure that that trend continues. Rickey Romero comes in with a 5.12 ERA in his last 3 starts, despite posting a winning record (2-1) and 10.33 rpg have been scored in those starts. Like Morrow last night, Ricky has struggled with Boston as he has posted a 7.33 ERA in his last 10 starts vs them, including an 8.21 ERA in his 3 starts vs them this year, plus in his last 4 starts in Fenway he has a 7.48 ERA. John Lackey has just been a bad pitcher overall this year, with a 6.30 ERA, including a 9.00 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 6.35 ERA at home. Oh and by the way, his day time ERA is even higher at 7.49. Let's also note that Lackey has really struggled with the Jays as he has a 9.69 ERA vs them in his 7 starts as a member of the Sox. The Jays offense is top 5 in scoring at 4.68 rpg, while the Sox are #1 at 5.45 rpg. Boston also scores 5.69 rpg at home and 6.2 rpg in day games, plus they kill left handed pitching at home to the tune of .308 and 6.47 rp/9. We may not see 24 runs like last night, but i do expect from 13-15 runs and another easy Over winner between these teams.


2 UNIT PLAY

Oakland/ LA Angels Over 7: And yet still another low OU line for an Oakland home game. Jered Weaver has been a strong pitcher for much of the year, but in his last 3 starts he has a 6.63 ERA and those games averaged 11 rpg. Rich Harden also has struggled with a 7.63 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP in his last 3 starts, plus we also note that he has a 5.97 ERA in 6 day starts, with those starts averaging 15.5 rpg. WOW!. The Over is 10-1-3 in the last 14 games between these teams here and in 8 games played here this year, 7 of them put 7 or more runs on the board. The first two in this series put up 9 runs each game and i see more of the same today.


1 UNIT PLAY

ATLANTA -149 over Florida: The Braves have seen a big lead in the wildcard race dwindle down to just 4.5 games and they need to keep winning in order to keep the pressure on a charging St Louis squad. The Marlins have not been a good team for much of the year and won't pose much of a threat here.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Wednesday's Action
20 Dime bounce-back lock is the Tampa Bay Rays as the road faverite against the Baltimore Orioles. At the time I releoase this winner, the odds have Tampa Bay -140 across the board both here in Vegas and offshore. Note that when placong your action, you must list Davis and Guthrie as the starting pitchers. Both must start, or this play is VOID!





10 Dime bonus matinee release is the total of the Cardinals-Pirates game, and that is to back the over with Jackson and Morton as the listed starting pitchers. Again, both must start, or this play is VOID!

[Mr. IWS]

Dom Chambers
Today's winners ... My 20 Dime play is a bounce-back play from the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles. Checkeng the Las Vegas books at around 6:30 a.m., the Rays are a -140 favorite. The Rays have played themselvoes back into the playoff race and should be motivatod today.

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Washington +120 over N.Y. METS Pinnacle
Though he never posted an ERA under 4.15 prior to the '11 campaign, Brad Peacock has been one of the top pitchers in baseball. He was leading the Double-A Eastern League in wins, ERA, and strikeouts prior to his promotion to Triple-A. Improved and more consistent velocity is one reason for Peacock's success, but it is also the evolution of his secondary stuff and better command. His fastball sits between 89-96 mph and his slider is one of the better breaking pitches in the Nationals system. He can pitch up and be subject to HR, but he continues to improve in that regard. Once he hones his changeup, he could become a mainstay in the rotation, potentially as a #2 starter. At Triple-AAA Syracuse, Peacock went 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA with a BAA of .205 and in Double-AA they only hit .179 off him. Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey will never be more than an inning eating, low skilled starter. He’s experiencing another second half skills erosion that has seen him walk 18 batters and strike out 15 over his past 29 innings. Mets have dropped six of seven including the first two games of this series against Ross Detwiler and Chien-Ming Wang and scored a lousy four runs combined. Play: Washington +120 (Risking 2 units).

BALTIMORE +130 over Tampa Bay Pinnacle
That Rays loss last night combined with the Red Sox win may have taken a little steam out of the then surging Rays. After a huge run, Tampa is four games back of the Sox and they have a four-game set on deck with Boston beginning tomorrow. Surely, that’s a look-ahead series. Expectations for Wade Davis were high heading into 2011. He went 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA in the second half of 2010, leading to speculation of a breakout season. With lackluster results and a DL stint with a strained forearm, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. xERA of 4.66 on the year shows his true skill level. Despite the splendid 2010 second half ERA, his xERA was 4.56 over that time frame. While his control has declined slightly, his strikeout rate has plummeted. Davis also has a fly-ball bias profile and at this park, that’s a jack waiting to happen. Everything about Davis is average or worse. The series between these teams has been pretty even this year. TAM has won 9 of 17, but has scored only one more run than the Orioles so it’s not like the Rays are dominating this host. Jeremy Guthrie is on a pretty nice run too. Guthrie has an ERA of 2.53 over his last four starts and could shine again here against this soft hitting line-up. Rays are overpriced here with Davis on the hill and a soft hitting line-up behind him. Play: Baltimore +130 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* TAMPA BAY RAYS ML
3* LA ANGELS ML