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MLB
Detroit Tigers ML -110
Chicago White Soxs ML-120
Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 ML -140
CF
LSU ML -160
MLB
Detroit Tigers ML -110
Chicago White Soxs ML-120
Philadelphia Phillies Game 1 ML -140
CF
LSU ML -160
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WUNDERDOG (NCAAF)
1 OF 11
Game: L S U at Mississippi State (Thursday 9/15 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Mississippi State +4 (-110)
Things aren't always as they appear. The public jumping on LSU here because they are focused on what they think they saw. LSU put up an impressive win over Oregon in their opener, and won by 46 points last week. Mississipi State lost last week to Auburn - a team that wasn't supposed to be that good this year. But, when we look deeper, the results may be misleading. The Bulldogs certainly let one slip away on the road last week at Auburn. On the scoreboard they lost the game, but a quick tour through the numbers shows that Mississippi State outplayed Auburn. A goal-line tackle on the final play preserved a win for Auburn, but take a look at the stats. The Bulldogs held Auburn to just 4 of 12 on third-down. Miss State outgained the Tigers by 150 yards, won the time of posession battle 37 minutes to 23 and put up 10 more first downs. The fact that they missed notching the W by a few inches leads to a home underdog status here and I love the value. LSU opened their season with an
impressive win at Cowboy Stadium in Dallas over Oregon. They were on the wrong side of the numbers in that game however, getting out-gained by the Ducks. Oregon coughed the ball up four times in crucial spots, giving LSU a misleading big win in what was really a much closer game. My computer matchup for this game has LSU winning by a field goal. This is a crucial game for the Bulldogs as they end it at either 2-1 or 1-2, a big difference. With the national TV spotlight, the crowd will be raucous and I expect a great effort from the home team here. Under Les Miles, LSU is just 15-30 ATS in SEC games and 11-22 ATS coming off a home win. Take the Bulldogs here.Comment
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Al DeMarco
Wednesday
10 dime play on Mississipi State as the home underdog against LSU. As I release this selectton at 6:45 AM Pacific, the host Bulldogs are +4 at the majordity of offshore sportsbooks. I do, however, see a +4 1/2 out there as well so it's important you price shop. Here in Vegas, they're a solid +3 1/2, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the action push it to +4. Interestnng dilemma since it's been my experience that more college games fall on 4 than 3. Thus here would be my advice: I would buy up the 1/2 point on Miss State if you get the Bulldogs at +3 1/2 or +4.
LSU has dominated its series against Miss State, winning 18 of the last 19 meetings (15-4 ATS), including 11 in a row by an average score of 30-13. But this is a statement game for the Bulldogs in their home opener after falling short on the one-yard line in last week's 41-34 loss at Auburn, a game where they enjoyed considerable advantages in first downs (31-21) and total yardage (531-381). That loss cam on the heels of a 59-14 season-opening blowout of Memphis on the road.
The Tigers coasted last Saturday against a cupcake, crushing Northwestern State 40-27. They opened with a 40-27 upset of Oregon, holding the Ducks' ground game to just 95 yards.
Like Oregon, the Bulldogs also run a spread attack. Unlike the Ducks, who rely on their speed to run outside, Miss State likes to run between the tackles with Vick Ballard (166 yards vs. Memphis; 135 vs. Auburn) and quarterback Chris Relf (20-33, 195 yards passtng vs. Auburn; 106 on the ground) leading the charge behind a big offensive line that will be without injured left tackle James Carmon.
Defensively there's no doubt LSU has one of the stingiest units in the country while Miss State's sprung a leak at Auburn last week, allowing those Tigers to run for 235 yards and average 6.5 per carry.
On offense, LSA's Jarrett Lee, who was 10-of-22 for 98 yards against Oregon, left last week's rout of Northwestern State with an ankle injury after compdleting 8-of-11 for 92 yards. This will be the senior's first true test of the season and playing in Starkville with the cowbells ringing is a tough task.
Dan Mullen has resuscitated the Mississippi State program, but he knows as everyone else does that his team needs a signature victory, one bigger than last year's triumph over a then-mediocre Florida squad.
The oddsmakers have priced this game accordingly based on the public's witnessing of the Tigers' destruction of Oregon. They've made this price cheap in order to get plenty of LSU money. The stratngy has worked as this number has slowly risen to 4 and 4 1/2 as I release this play.
Can Miss State win this game outright? Yes, they can. But either way this is probably a field goal game in either direction so taking the points and going against the public favorite is the way to go.
Today's Note
Improved to 5-1 with 10 dime releases over the past two weeks, and 14-6 overall the past two months, with the Rangers' 9-1 run line rout of Cleveland last night that raised my overall record to 70-52-1 over the past 83 days.
Just my second college football release of the season. Last Saturday I won my first on Wisconsin 35-0 over Oregon State, part of a 3-0-1 day that also included two blowout free pick winners on Washington State and Oregon.
FYI - Note that 99% of my plays are rated between 5 and 15 dimes (going in 5 dime increments).Comment
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