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Don Wallace Sports
(153) NAVY (+18.5, un55.5)
(154) SOUTH CAROLINA (-18.5, ov55.5)
Saturday, September 17th, 2011, 5:00 PM CST
Take: (153) NAVY
Analysis: The No. 10 South Carolina Gamecocks (2-0) will face the Navy Midshipmen (2-0) in their 2011 home opener Saturday night at Williams Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC. The Gamecocks are coming off of a thrilling 45-42 win at rival Georgia to put themselves in first place in the SEC Eastern Division. This is the first time since the 2000-01 seasons that South Carolina has defeated Georgia in back-to-back seasons. South Carolina will be looking to use the momentum that they've built with consecutive wins away from home to start the season to open their 2011 home schedule with a win against a Navy team that runs a very efficient triple option offense. Head Coach Steve Spurrier knows what Navy is capable of and was quick to point out that they are one of the best independent football programs in the country in his weekly press conference of Tuesday. Navy might be as good an independent school as there is in the country, Spurrier said. They won 10, nine and eight games the last three years. I think they beat Notre Dame a couple of times. They're leading the nation in rushing offense right now. They run the triple option with fullback, quarterback and pitch guys so we'll have our hands full slowing down these guys. If Carolina wants to win this game, they will need a gameplan to stop Navy's triple option. The Navy rushing attack has proven difficult to stop in previous years and this year is no exception. QB Kriss Proctor has rushed for 199 yards and three touchdowns in his first two appearances this year, while RB Alexander Teich has rushed for 167. Carolina's front seven needs to have a plan of attack that will neutralize Navy's running game, and force them to throw the ball, which they rarely do. Its no secret that this service academy travels well. Navy is 23-9 ATS on the highway since 2002. After two emotionally charged finishes on the road, I dont expect The Gamecocks to be completely focused for this one. NAVY 28 SOUTH CAROLINA 45
10* West Virginia +2
Taking WEST VIRGINIA here. Some perception vs reality here. Yes, Maryland looked good against the Hurricanes back on Labor Day weekend. Miami was missing some suspended players. West Va didn't look very impressive vs Norfolk State as they were down 12-10 at the half. Did anyone catch the 2nd half where the Mountaineers dropped a 45 spot on them? QB Geno Smith is the difference maker here. Maryland still needed 3 TOs to finally put down the undermaned Canes. Will take this explosive West Va offense to get the job done on the road. 10* WEST VIRGINIA
Michigan State at Notre Dame (MINUS 4.0) Sept. 17, 3:30, NBC
Here’s The Deal … There’s no way this can live up to the precedent. It just can’t. It’s asking for too much. Notre Dame has been the story of 2011 so far, with an offensive explosion counterbalanced by fatal, disastrous moments turning a team good enough to be 2-0 and in the hunt for a BCS game into a hot mess thanks to ten turnovers, 17 penalties, and inexplicable defensive lapses. Head coach Brian Kelly got in trouble for a red-faced tantrum in the loss to South Florida, he made a major quarterback change, and the pressure is tightening on a team that’s within an eyelash of being unbeaten. So far, though, all that matters is that the Irish are 0-2. From South Florida’s defensive stops with its back against the wall, to Denard Robinson’s magic in an all-timer of a night game last Saturday night, it’s been a wild ride so far, and if recent history against Michigan State is any indication, it’s about to get a whole lot bumpier. The Spartans have had Notre Dame’s number winning ten of the last 14 matchups, but four of the last six game were decided by three points and 11 of the last 13 have been decided by a touchdown or less. As good as the rivalry has been, and as classic as some of the games were, nothing topped last season’s 34-31 Michigan State win, complete with a fake field goal for the win and followed up by Spartan head coach Mark Dantonio’s heart scare. After the 2010 game, and with the way Notre Dame played in Ann Arbor, can this be anything less than another must-see all-timer? Again, it’s asking for too much. What it will be, though, is a possible season-definer.
Notre Dame can’t lose. A case could be made that it’s the best 0-2 team in the country, and with a not-that-bad schedule until the regular season finale at Stanford, a win for the Irish this week might start a run that could change everything around in a hurry. No matter what happens against the Spartans, the Irish should be favored in every game up until the battle against the Cardinal. Michigan State hasn’t generated any noise yet, partly because the last time it was on a national stage it was obliterated by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl, and partly because the first two games were against Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. However, the Spartans have been dominant with a defense that hasn’t allowed a thing and a dangerous offense that’s doing whatever it wants. How strong has the defense been? FAU came up with one first down last week – one – failing to convert on any of its ten chances and finishing with 26 yards passing and 22 rushing. Michigan State is loaded and ready to show that it deserves to be in the discussion of top Big Ten teams, and Notre Dame is ready to come up with a win to let everyone around the program exhale. Go ahead. Demand yet another thrilling classic. These two know how to do it.
Why Michigan State Might Win: One. That’s how many turnovers Michigan State has committed so far, giving up just one fumble against Youngstown State. The Notre Dame turnover problems will stop at some point, and MSU doesn’t have the make-up to start screwing up enough to make a difference. This is a smart, veteran team that did a great job of hanging on to the ball throughout last year and will be ultra-stingy again when it comes to giving the ball away. It’s possible the Spartans can simply hold serve and keep it close throughout, and then wait for Notre Dame to implode. The bigger issue for the Irish could be a shaky secondary that broke down way too often against Michigan. Denard Robinson only completed 11 of 24 passes, but he made the plays through the air when he had to thanks to poor positioning and lousy technique from the Irish defensive backs. It’ll be a whole different ball game this week against MSU’s Kirk Cousins, who unlike Robinson, doesn’t have to rely on lobbing the ball up in the air to make the passing game go. Michigan might have tremendous talent, but Michigan State has a better overall offense with the balance to hit the Irish defense in a variety of ways.
Why Notre Dame Might Win: The Michigan State offensive line is just okay, it’s not great. The pass protection has been fine so far and the running game has worked, but that’s because of the competition. Lost in the last two games was an Irish defense that did a great job against the run, holding Michigan to 114 yards with Robinson ripping off 108 of them. South Florida only gained 126 yards and struggled to break off any big dashes, averaging just three yards per carry. The Irish defensive front has been more than fine, but it hasn’t been noticed because of the brilliance of Robinson and all the problems on the Notre Dame offense. But the offense is fine. Several of the mistakes have come from a lack of timing and a lack of polish, and many of the turnovers won’t be made in a few weeks; it might have taken the first two games to get rid of all the yips. South Florida’s defense is athletic and talented, and Notre Dame had no problems going up and down the field against it. Michigan’s defense might be questionable, but it’s full of experience and is ultra-aggressive, and the Irish came up with 315 yards through the air and 198 on the ground. Michigan State hasn’t seen this type of offense yet and needs to be prepared to get into a firefight.
What To Watch Out For: Lost in the brilliance of the Michigan game was a phenomenal performance by Cierre Wood, the Irish back who tore off 134 yards and a touchdown after rumbling for 104 yards and a score against USF. The junior was a superstar recruit who could’ve gone anywhere after rushing for over 4,000 yards and 54 touchdowns in his final two years of high school, and now he’s starting to play up to his potential. With a great blend of speed and power, he became a key part of the attack over the second half of last year, and now he’s thriving. Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd has been unstoppable over the first two games with 25 catches for 313 yards and two scores, but Michigan State has a playmaking receiver of its own who’s ready for the national stage. Senior B.J. Cunningham was terrific in last year’s win over the Irish, catching seven passes for 101 yards and a touchdown, after catching seven passes for 74 yards in the 2009 loss. The 6-2, 223-pounder is big, isn’t afraid to get physical, and has the wheels to get deep when needed. He’s also a rock-steady No. 1 target with 14 catches for 203 yards and a score to start the season.
BOTTOM LINE DEPARTMENT: The slide will stop. Michigan State will come up with the takeaways needed to make the Irish sweat, and it has the defensive line to wreak havoc, but finally, the turnovers will slow down. Notre Dame will give up a couple of mistakes, but it won’t turn it over five times like it has over each of the last two games and that’ll make all the difference. Irish quarterback Tommy Rees and Cousins will each throw for over 300 yards, and it’ll be a shootout and a typical tight game between the two teams. The one with the ball last will win. I'll TAKE NOTRE DAME to win and "Beat The Spread!
RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS
AUBURN OVER CLEMSON (-3.5)
L.S.U. (-3.0) OVER MISSISSIPPI STATE
TEXAS (-3.5) OVER U.C.L.A.
OKLAHOMA (-3.0) OVER FLORIDA STATE
triple-dime bet 111 Pittsburgh 3.0 (-110) JustBet vs 112 Iowa
Analysis: PLAY: PITT
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
I'm Betting 3 Units today on PITT in College Football action. Pitt is 2-0 with 2 uninspiring Wins over Buffalo & Maine. Pitt has kept things pretty simple so far under the new coaching regime of Todd Graham. Today that all changes as the Panthers open things up in Iowa and run some of the offense that Coach Graham used so successfully at Tulsa. Iowa had trouble stopping a very average Iowa St team last week losing in Overtime 44-41 even with Iowa St turning the ball over 3 times. Pitt is the better team and is getting points which makes them an outstanding playœ. Note teams coming off Overtime losses are poor plays the following week. I have Pitt Winning this Game 23-16.
TAKE PITT as MARCO'S INSIDER TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Marco Rated this Play 7* on his Executive Late Phone Service
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