9-17-11

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HSW early

5* Utah

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OCAL SPORTS

(3) Ohio -4
(3) UCLA +3.5
(3) Illinois -2
(5) Nebraska -17
(3) Houston -6.5

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From the Real Time(with Bill Maher) Animal:

Saturday free pick is 2* Miami-Florida -2:
That Toledo close effort in Columbus last week certainly looks far worse for the Buckeyes now after Boise State rolled up 610 yards and 32 first downs last night in Ohio. Miami of Florida has had two weeks to prepare for Ohio State after losing at Maryland 32-24 on Labor Day night. In that contest, the Terrapins scored two touchdowns on 30-yard fumble return and a 54-yard interception return. The Hurricanes welcome back QB Jacory Harris and linebacker Sean Spence, who was All-ACC last year with 111 tackles. I can't find enough play-makers on the Buckeye roster to keep pace w/ Miami. WR Posey and RB Herron remain suspended. Throw in the fact All-Big 10 offensive lineman Mike Adams is also suspended. Tough road debut for Buckeyes Coach Luke Fickell and especially with the inexperienced Joe Bauserman at QB. Keep in mind Toledo was less than 20 yards away from upsetting the Buckeyes last week. Coach Al Golden is 11-2 ATS as either an underdog or favorite of three points or less. Providing Harris can limit the number of interceptions, take the Canes to beat the Buckeyes and cover -2.

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Big Daddy
12* duke/bc under 49
12* nevada -6

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Mike Hook

3 E mich
2 nevada
2 sd st
2 arizona
2 FIU

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Rocketman

5 clemson
5 temple
5 ucla
5 ohio u.
3 hawaii
3 vandy
3 kent state

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Sean Murphy

10 over ucla
10 over la tech
9 temple
5 tenn

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Sean Higgs

Best Bet
Taking COLORADO here. I am tossing the trends out the window for this affair. Road team and the underdog have been the play in this series, but not this time. Buffaloes are just flat out the better club here. Rams barely got one of the worse teams in college, New Mexico 14-10. Then they took on Nortern Colorado with their starting QB tossing 3 INTs. At least the Buffs went on the road to face Hawai'i, never a fun trip and Cal. In the loss to Cal, Colorado put up nearly 600 yards of offense. Can't see CSU slowing dow that attack too much. 5* COLORADO BUFFALOES

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ATS LOCK

Triple crown was:
8 bowling green
8 wash st
8 ok st.

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Robert Ferrringo

********


SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
3-Unit Play. Take #172 USC (-16.5) over Syracuse (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

Syracuse has looked awful for seven of their eight quarters this season. They were getting rocked at home by Wake Forest until they knocked the Deacons' quarterback out of the game and pulled off a stunning comeback win. Last week they struggled to put away Rhode Island and that brings us to the dirty little secret about SU over the last season-plus: of their nine regular season wins over that period they have beaten three FCS teams and an Akron team that was the worst in Div. I at the time. They were rocked by 21 points at Washington last year and I just don't think that they are up for the speed and talent that USC brings to the table here. The Trojans barely held off a weak Minnesota team in the opener, but they came back and banged heads with a good Utah squad last week. This team is 2-0, has an NFL prospect at quarterback, and they will be playing their third game at home. This is Syracuse's first road game and I don't think that they are settled on either side of the ball. Since 2009 when Syracuse has lost it has usually been via blowout. They lost by 21 at Pen State, by 2 at Pitt, by 25 at Connecticut, by 27 to West Virginia, and by 35 to Pittsburgh (on top of the Washington loss). I have made my feelings about Lane Kiffin well known (I wouldn't let him coach a high school team) but I don't even think that he can screw this one up. USC should pour it on early as it starts to find its groove. Lay the points here and look for the Orange to fall behind early and lose by three scores.

2-Unit Play. Take #186 Arizona (+9.5) over Stanford (10:45 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

I think that this is a solid spot to fade the public here. Stanford has not been as dominant as their two final scores suggest. They only outgained SJSU by 140 yards despite winning by 54 points in the opener and last week they were only up 10-7 late in the half at Duke. Those are two pretty poor teams and while Stanford's numbers appear gaudy I think it is time to start going the other way. This is a lot of points to be laying on the road in a conference road game. Arizona is off an embarrassing loss at Oklahoma State. But I think that they are a little better than they played there and they will be on a mission in this game. Stanford won by 25 at home last year, giving the Wildcats revenge. Prior to that game the previous three meetings were decided by a total of seven points and five of the last seven have been determined by 10 points or less.

2-Unit Play. Take #187 UL-Monroe (+29) over TCU (2 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

Again, I think we have a nice spot to go against the public here. TCU simply isn't the same team that they have been over the last four years. They are incredibly green and without a stud quarterback like Andy Dalton running the show this team lacks leadership and a stabilizing force. The Horned Frogs are off two solid road games against Baylor (loss) and Air Force (win). And beyond being the home opener I am not sure what type of motivation that they have here. Monroe is a team with a lot of experience and they are going to try to pound the ball on the ground. I think that they can shorten the game this way and that they will get enough stops to keep this one close and low scoring. Monroe only gave up 34 points to Florida State on the road (losing 34-0) and I think that the Seminoles are a far superior team to this TCU bunch. This is simply too many points and with 80 percent of the public on TCU we'll go the other way.

2-Unit Play. Take #110 Clemson (-3) over Auburn (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 17)

Auburn is garbage. I am not thrilled about this Clemson team but this is how little I think of the Tigers and their fluke wins. This Auburn team can't stop anyone and it is really only a matter of time before their luck finally runs out and their lack of skill rears its head. This is the first road game for a very young, inexperienced club and they are going up against a Clemson team that has double-revenge for a pair of overtime losses in the last few years (2007 and 2010). Auburn is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games against ACC teams and I don't think that their team speed is going to overwhelm Clemson like it did Miss. State or Utah State.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #108 Maryland (-1) over West Virginia (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 17)

After six straight losses to the Mountaineers I think that this is a good spot for the home team to make a statement and get one back. Maryland has had two weeks to prepare for this game and the line steam - from the Terps as three-point underdogs to these small favorites - tells me that a lot of heavy money is coming down Maryland's way. I trust that Randy Edsall will have his troops prepared here and if they could handle Miami at home they could lay the wood to West Virginia here. I am not sold on Geno Smith and WVU has been a little shaky while it learns Dana Holgorsen's system. I will take the motivated, revenge-minded home team with extra rest and a better quarterback over the slightly overrated visitors.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #166 Ball State (-4.5) over Buffalo (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

Pretty stunning line here. The Cardinals have played two tough games at Indiana (which they won) and at South Florida. Now they have their home opener against a team that just snapped an eight-game losing streak - a streak in which they were routinely pummeled - with a win over Stony Brook. Ball State has dominated this series, winning five of six meetings, and they have scored those wins by 17, 35, 30, 20 and 9 points. Buffalo is just 3-26 in their last 29 games against the MAC West and they have been terrible on the road. Buffalo is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games away from home and I don't see them getting this win.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #137 Michigan State (+5) over Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

So let me get this straight, Notre Dame lost to South Florida and Michigan as a favorite in both games and now they are still laying points? Michigan State is probably better than either of the two teams that have already gotten the better of the Irish. And you can talk about turnovers and total yards stats all you want but the bottom line is that this Notre Dame team can't defend and just isn't very good. The Spartans have a ton of weapons on offense and a defense that is more physical than either USF or Michigan's. the road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Spartans are 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Four of the last six meetings have been determined by a field goal and eight of 10 have been decided by a touchdown or less. I will play the value and take the points.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #131 Wisconsin (-17) over Northern Illinois (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

Right now the Badgers look like one of the best teams in the country. They have dominated their first two opponents, including an Oregon State team that I think is better than Northern Illinois. The fact of the matter is that Northern Illinois has zero chance of stopping Wisconsin. The Huskies only brought back two defensive starters from last year's squad and they lost 11 of their top 15 tacklers. This group gave up 26 points to Army while allowing 300 yards rushing and then last week they gave up 45 points to Kansas. If they can't stop Army and Kansas they don't stand a chance at stopping the Badgers offense. Northern Illinois had a great year last year, but they still lost by 17 points at Iowa State. Wisconsin has shown that they will drop the hammer, posting wins of 70-23, 48-28, 83-20 and 34-13 against Big Ten competition. Northern Illinois isn't Big Ten competition. I think the Badgers roll yet again.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #173 Oklahoma (-3) over Florida State (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

This play is a bit on par with the Notre Dame play. Every year the preseason hype has Miami and Florida State being ?back?. Well, I will believe it when I see it. They were throttled by Oklahoma last year on the road and now it looks like they could be poised for a huge, marquee win on national television. Again - when I see it I will believe it. Oklahoma is a team that is used to playing and performing in these big spots. FSU is a team that normally rolls over. The Sooners are another club that has had two weeks to prep for this game and I trust that Bob Stoops will have his boys ready to execute. Florida State's advantage is its speed and athleticism. But OU sees plenty of that in the Big 12 and it is precisely their ability to execute and play efficiently on offense that sets them apart. And in a game of two very evenly matched programs I will side with Landry Jones, his skill players, and his system over a relatively unproven E.J. Manuel and a shaky crop of FSU athletes.

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #125 Duke (+14) over Boston College (12:30 p.m.) AND Take #155 Washington State (+12.5) over San Diego State (6:30 p.m.)

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DOC SPORTS

6* Take Clemson Tigers -3 over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 12 pm ABC)
4* Take Michigan Wolverines -28.5 over Eastern Michigan Eagles

4* Take Temple Owls +7 over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 12 pm ESPN)
4* Take Miami Hurricanes -2.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 7:30 ESPN)
4* Northern Illinois Huskies +17 over Wisconsin Badgers (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 3)
5* Take Detroit Lions -8 over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 1 pm CBS)
4* Take Miami Dolphins +3 over Houston Texans (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
4* Take Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC)
3* Take Under 43.5 in St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants (Monday 8:40 pm ESPN)

6 Unit Play. #8 Take Clemson Tigers -3 over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 12 pm ABC)

Revenge Game of the Year.This Auburn team continues to roll and will enter Death Valley on a 16-game winning streak. No doubt that a team has to be good to accomplish this. However, luck does play a part in this game and the Auburn Tiger's good luck is going to run out. Auburn has a very young team and one has to wonder how these underclassman will fare in their first road game of the season. Clemson lost at Auburn last year in overtime, 27-24, in a game Clemson led 17-3 at halftime.

Moving over to the Clemson side, although they have played a weak schedule, they have been lighting up the scoreboard of offense. New OC Chad Morris may be the reason, as he coached at Tulsa last season and averaged more than 40 points per game.

I just cannot see this young Auburn team trading points with Clemson. Throw in revenge after a tough loss last year in Auburn and Clemson will be ready to make a statement. Auburn is 1-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games against ACC teams. The homer gets the call!

Clemson Tigers 41, Auburn Tigers 24

4 Unit Play. #40 Take Michigan Wolverines -28.5 over Eastern Michigan Eagles (Saturday 12 pm Big Ten Network)

Some handicappers may be looking for a letdown here for Michigan after coming back to beat Notre Dame last week. In my opinion that will not be the case. This Wolverines team is hungry and the defense must take a stand.

I am looking for QB Denard Robinson and his talented receivers to have a big day against the Eagles. EMU is 2-0, but neither opponent they have played has the talent of Michigan. This is Michigan's third straight home game and I expect the Blue and Gold to roll. The Eagles are 9-29 ATS in their last 38 nonconference games. The Wolverines are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against nonconference teams. Both trends hold true on Saturday.

Michigan Wolverines 49, Eastern Michigan Eagles 10

4 Unit Play. #74 Take Temple Owls +7 over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 12 pm ESPN)

This is a rare road game for a Big Ten team against a MAC team, but that will be the case on Saturday when the Lions invade Philadelphia looking for their 29th straight win against Temple. Will they get it? Not so fast my friend! Yes, Penn State is talented, but last week's loss against Alabama displayed that this team has weaknesses.

As for Temple, the offense has the best player on the field in Bernard Pierce. Their biggest loss from last year may have been Coach Al Golden, who is now at Miami. But Golden recruited well and this Temple team will make some noise in the MAC.

Penn State is coming off an emotional loss against Alabama, and that was a game they thought they had a chance to win. I am stepping out on a limb here, but I believe that an upset is possible and I will call it!

Temple Owls 24, Penn State Nittany Lions 21

4 Unit Play. #84 Take Miami Hurricanes -2.5 over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 7:30 ESPN)

The biggest question here is who will be suspended and who will be able to play for both teams. The Buckeyes find themselves at 2-0 on the season, but the schedule has been light. Despite that Toledo had a chance to win last week in Columbus.

The Hurricanes got beat by Maryland in the opening game of the season and had last week off. QB Jacory Harris did not play in the opener but is expected to play in this game. That will not be the case with Ohio State, as their coach and quarterback from last season are now in the NFL and they are both serving a suspension. This is a big game for Coach Al Golden and I look for him to have his team ready to make a statement in primetime. This small line looks to be a gift.

Miami Hurricanes 28, Ohio State Buckeyes 20

4 Unit Play. #86 Take Northern Illinois Huskies +17 over Wisconsin Badgers (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 3)

This will be a game very few people will be able to watch since it is only available on the Internet. The Badgers have shown they belong in the Top 10 this season with two dominating performances against UNLV and Oregon State. But UNLV does not have any talent and Oregon State was banged up at a couple of key positions. Wisconsin is good, but I personally believe that they are not this good. Their defense has yet to be tested and the Huskies have the playmakers to give them their first true test this Saturday.

QB Chandler Harinish threw 21 touchdowns last season and only 5 interceptions and he has numerous playmakers around him. Coach Dave Doeren was the defensive coordinator at Wisconsin last year and he will have a good gameplan taking on his former squad. The only question I have is whether the Huskies can stop the Badgers running attack. The Huskies are 11-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 14 games overall. In a high scoring affair, this one stay under the number.

Wisconsin Badgers 41, Northern Illinois Huskies 31

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Allen Eastman Football
Take #120 Temple (+7.5) over Penn State
Take #162 Ohio (-3) over Marshall
Take #133 Miami, OH (+4.5) over Minnesota
Take #149 Nevada (-6.5) over San Jose State
Take #136 Florida (-9.5) over Tennessee
Take #200 Detroit (-8) over Kansas City
Take #207 Baltimore (-5.5) over Tennessee
Take #217 Dallas (-3) over San Francisco
Take #202 New York Jets (-9) over Jacksonville
Take #211 Green Bay (-9).5 over Carolina


will get rankings later on

4-Unit Play. Take #120 Temple (+7.5) over Penn State (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 17)

This is a big letdown spot for Penn State. The Lions took on Alabama at home last week and it is going to be tough to get up for a MAC team on the road this week. Temple, on the other hand, has had this game circled and they will give an all-out effort. The Owls have covered in their last two meetings with Penn State and they have managed to shrink their deficit against them in each of the last three years. In 2008 they lost by 42, in 2009 they lost by 25, and last year they lost by just 9 points. All of those three games were in Happy Valley. Now the Owls have their chance at revenge and they should be way up for it. The difference in motivation and a solid public fade make this a good spot for yours truly.

3-Unit Play. Take #162 Ohio (-3) over Marshall (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

It is going to be very difficult for Marshall this weekend after a big win over Southern Miss last Saturday. Back-to-back road games can be tough for any college team. But doing it after a big outright upset and after a physical game like that can be especially rough. Ohio has been excellent through its first two games and quarterback Tyler Tettleton is a real up-and-comer in the MAC. Ohio does its best work with the ground game and I think that they will be able to wear down the Herd. Marshall's offense is ranked just No. 106 in the country and after back-to-back games with a lot of emotion involved (they opened the year at rival West Virginia) I am not sure what this team has left to offer. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings of these old rivals and Ohio has beat the number in six of the last eight meetings going back to 2000.

2-Unit Play. Take #133 Miami, OH (+4.5) over Minnesota (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

Minnesota lost to New Mexico State last week. Why couldn't they lose outright to Miami? This is a very good Redhawks team that won 10 games last year. They easily covered the spread at Missouri in their opener and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. That gives them a big edge against a Gophers team that has played two very draining games at USC (19-17) and against New Mexico State (28-21). The Gophers are just 2-7 ATS in their home games and the Redhawks have gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall. I think that this MAC team is the better team in this game. Having the points is a bonus and I think our side will pull the outright upset.

3-Unit Play. Take #149 Nevada (-6.5) over San Jose State (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

This line is too low. Nevada is a the best team in the WAC and they are off a bad loss at Oregon. The Ducks had a lot of frustration to take out last week and the Wolfpack just happened to be the ones there. But that has hidden the fact that this is still a very solid Nevada program. SJSU is off a very emotional game against UCLA that they almost managed to pull an upset in. The week before that they played Stanford. That is two games against bigger, in-state schools from the Pac-10. I think that the Spartans will have a much harder time getting up for this game emotionally. The Wolfpack are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and the favorite is 9-2 ATS when these two teams play. The Spartans are just 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games overall and this line should have been closer to 10.

4-Unit Play. Take #136 Florida (-9.5) over Tennessee (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 17)

The Volunteers are coming off a big home win and are off to a strong start. But they have had no luck in The Swamp and have been buried by 14 and 24 points in their last two trips there. Florida has owned this series for nearly two decades and the Gators are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings. This Gators team is really responding to new coach Mitch Muschamp and their defense has been great. Florida has given up just one field goal in two games so far this year. If Florida shuts down Tennessee's offense then I don't see how the Vols can stay in this game. Florida is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and they are 35-16 ATS as a favorite. This one should be all UF.

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The Winning Prescription (Marcus Langdon)

IOWA -3
MICHIGAN STATE +5
NEVADA -6
CENTRAL FLORIDA -6
HOUSTON -6.5
ARIZONA STATE 2
KENT STATE/KANSAS STATE Under 46
FRESNO STATE -27.5

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Sean Higgs
Full Card

10* West Va
5* Colorado
4* Florida
Taking the GATORS here. I know this isn't vintage Florida football, but I really like their new HC. Was a fan of Muschamp going all the way back to his days at LSU. The guy can get his defense playing extremely well. And here, I think it is the differnce maker. Vols looked good at home, but are heading into The Swamp, never an easy place to win. Made harder with their youth. Tennessee HC Dooley brings the SEC youngest team to town. This will be Muschamp's first SEC game, so I expect his players and the fans to create some atmosphere that will rattle the Vols. 4* FLORIDA GATORS
4* Virginia Tech
Taking VA TECH here. For me, this line is off nearly 6 points. We have Arkansas State off a throttling of Memphis 47-3 and the Hokies off a lackluster 17-10 ballgame. Don't be fooled people. This Hokies team is talented. Red Wolves won't be able to slow down this offense. If Illinois is going for 200 on the ground, watch out. Arkansas State will be done midway through the 3rd quarter. 4* VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES
5* Sooners
Taking the SOONERS here. I know payback is a bitch, but Florida State just won't be able to cash that check. This game is all about Landry Jones. He is the key to Oklahoma winning here, and winning it all. This is going to pitch and catch between Jones and WR Ryan Broyles. Listen, FSU is good and talented. They are ranked #5. But I will take the Sooner experience at QB as the difference maker here. 5* OKLAHOMA SOONERS
4* Over Florida State
Going OVER the total in Tallaassee tonight. I know the Sooners offense will score at least 40 tonight. They are just that good. Their defense is a bend don't break unit so at worse, the 'Noles should put up 21 here. I am thinking something along the 44-34 lines tonight. 4* OVER Oklahoma/Florida State
5* Miami, Florida
Taking the HURRICANES here. Nothing like coming home and getting your starting QB and LB back for a nice revenge match vs Ohio State. Last year, Jacory turned the ball over on what seemed to be every other possession. Shoe is on the other foot with the young Buckeyes. Miami eager to put their latest scandel to rest. Buckeyes with thier own blackeye from their tattoo-gate. Even a depleted Miami team nearly turned the upset on the road in Maryland. OSU in off a near mighty upset as they managed to hold off Toledo at home. HC Al Golden will have his troops focused and the crowd will be very into the game. OSU has a new HC in Luke Fickell. We will see how he does in his first road game. The U, gets a W at home tonight. 5* MIAMI HURRICANES

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Jen Barry

30* MLB Underdog Winner #15 out of 22

Florida Marlins +210 over Washington

Volstad / Strasburg

15* College Play

Oklahoma State Cowboys -13.5 over Tulsa