9-18-11

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

nflbettingpicks

GOW size:
5* San Diego Chargers +7.5
5* NY Giants -5.5

1-0 hit Bills last week

[Mr. IWS]

The Daily BOBBER

NFL
Two-game teaser (6 points): Saints (-.5) & Falcons (+8.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Football Jesus
Free picks in football 10-4-1
This week's : Falcons + points

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

4* Football: Over 47 Green Bay Packers vs. Carolina Panthers

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

5* Take Detroit Lions -8 over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday 1 pm CBS)
4* Take Miami Dolphins +3 over Houston Texans (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS)
4* Take Atlanta Falcons +2.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 8:20 pm NBC)
3* Take Under 43.5 in St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants (Monday 8:40 pm ESPN)

[Mr. IWS]

Power Sweeps (Newsletter)

4* New Orleans over Chicago 35-21
3* Washington over Arizona 28-17
2* San Diego + over Patriots 27-28
2* Pittsburgh Over Seattle 38-10

[Mr. IWS]

Colin Cowherd

Lions (-9) over Chiefs
Steelers (-15) over Seahawks
Titans (+6.5) cover Ravens
Bears (+7) cover Saints
Cowboys (-3) over Niners

[Mr. IWS]

Norm Hitzges

double play----

· new orleans -6 1/2 chicago

· san diego---new england over 53 1/2


single plays-----

· detroit -8 kansas city

· ny jets -9 1/2 jacksonville

· washington -3 1/2 arizona

· pittsburgh -14 1/2 seattle

· tampa bay +3 minnesota

· san diego +7 new england

· cleveland -2 1/2 indianapolis

· miami--houston over 48

· jets-jacksonville over 39

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG (NFL)

Game: Jacksonville at New York Jets (Sunday 9/18 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Jacksonville +9 (-115)

The Jets had a big win last week vs. Dallas where they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. There is no way the Jets should have sniffed a win in that game, but they got it, leading to some overvalue this week. It was somewhat of a surprising game for New York as their defense is their calling card and Tony Romo torched their secondary for 326 yards and a pair of TDs. The offense, which is run-first, passed for over 300 yards and the ground game was held in check the entire game. That leaves a lot of question marks as to who are the Jets this year. Jacksonville surprised everyone by releasing David Garrard right before the season. Luke McCown has become the heir apparent and he managed the game very well vs. the Titans last week, committing no turnovers. The offense spear-headed by the running of Jones-Drew pounded the ball 47 times for the win. I expect that the Jags are going to be playing that way all season. Try to pPlay mistake free on offense, shorten games and allow an
improved defense to give them a chance late. That Jags defense held Chris Johnson to 2 yards rushing in the opener. Jacksonville is very much an under the radar team, covering seven of their last ten games and have been Jets killers as they are 6-0 ATS vs. New York, including 4-0 ATS in New York. The Jets start slow having covered the spread in just 10 of their last 32 September games. Take the Jags with the points.

[Mr. IWS]

JIMMY BOYD

5* GOM SD Chargers +7

[Mr. IWS]

NFL
Write-Up


Week 2

Bears (1-0) @ Saints (0-1)—Last three years, Payton’s team is 10-3 vs spread in game following loss; Saints had three extra days to ****** loss in Lambeau opener. NO is 9-3-1 vs spread in last 13 games as non-divisional home favorite- would expect them to run it more here, after only 21 runs, 53 dropbacks in opener. Since 2007, Bears are 12-18 vs spread in game following a loss- they’re 5-9-1 as road dog since ‘08. Chicago won last three series games, with average total in last three, 54, but Bears lost last three visits to Bourbon Street by 22-3-7 points (beat Saints @ LSU in ’05). 10 of Saints’ last 14 home openers, six of Bears’ last seven road openers stayed under total.

Chiefs (0-1) @ Lions (1-0)—Detroit now on 5-game win streak after 27-20 win in Tampa where they put up 431 yards despite covering just 2-11 on third down; Lions is 6-2-1 in last nine games as home favorite- they’re 12-8 vs spread/AFC teams, 10-6 vs spread at home under Schwartz. Detroit was 5-0 vs spread in game following a win LY, after being 7-21-2 in such role from ‘01-‘09. Chiefs were awful in losing home opener 41-7 last week, passing for just 105 yards, converting 3-13 on third down. Have to wonder how much Cassel is affected by sore ribs. Since ’07, Chiefs are 19-13 vs spread on road. Since 2005, they’re 14-24-1 as single digit underdogs. Home side won four of last five series games.

Jaguars (1-0) @ Jets (1-0)— Since 2007, Gang Green is 8-16-1 as home fave, but they’re 12-10 vs spread as favorite under Ryan. Since ’08, Jets are 16-11 vs spread in game following a win- they need to avoid letdown after emotional comeback win in season opener against Cowboys. Jags won five of last six series games, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points, or in OT; Jax outrushed Titans 163-43 last week, converted 9-18 on third down- this is only second time in last 11+ years they’re double digit dog (lost 27-7 (+10.5) at Baltimore in ’07 finale). Jaguars lost five of last six road openers, scoring 10-12-13 points last three years. Five of their last seven road openers stayed under total.

Raiders (1-0) @ Bills (1-0)—Very tough scheduling spot for Oakland, which won in Denver late Monday night (game ended after 1:30 am ET), now has cross-country road trip on short rest, vs hopped-up Buffalo squad that had 23-yard edge in field position in last week’s stunning 41-7 win at Arrowhead, starting five drives in KC territory. Since 2007, Buffalo is 12-7 as a favorite; since ’04, they’re 18-11-1 as a home favorite. Last eight years, Raiders are 25-42-1 as single digit dog. Oakland won four of last five series games, with home side winning last three; Raiders are 3-3 in last six visits here. Under is 8-4 in Buffalo’s last dozen home openers. Bills had excellent balance in opener; 163 rushing yards, 201 passing.

Cardinals (1-0) @ Redskins (1-0)—Have to be concerned about Arizona pass defense after rookie Newton lit them up for 422 yards, most ever by player in his NFL debut. Over last nine years, Cardinals are just 19-32-2 coming off a win, 26-43-3 vs spread on road, but Arizona has won its first road game the last three years, allowing 14.3 ppg-- they’ve lost last seven games vs Washington, losing last six visits here, with four of six losses by 7+ points. Since 2008, Arizona is 5-10-2 as road dog. Since ’05, Washington is 13-19 as a favorite; 9-3 vs spread when laying 3 or less points, 4-16 if laying more than 3. Skins are 5-13-1 in their last 19 games as a home favorite. Skins had three TD’s in four visits to red zone and the defense scored go-ahead TD, a huge plus. Four of Arizona’s last five road openers stayed under total.

Ravens (1-0) @ Titans (0-1)—Tennessee star RB Johnson had nine carries, 24 yards in opener, now Raven defense comes to town after forcing seven turnovers in rivalry win last week. New Titan coach Munchak great lineman; he needs to find way to get Johnson more holes to run thru. Baltimore is 19-11 vs spread in last 30 games as favorite, 5-3 in last eight as road fave, 14-8-2 in last 24 road games overall- they covered four of last five road openers. Tennessee covered its last six games as an underdog in home openers; since 2007, they’re 22-14-1 as a dog, 18-14 coming off a loss. Home team lost last three series games; Ravens won five of last six visits here. Average total in last seven series games is 31.7. Over is 10-6 in Tennessee’s last six home openers.

Seahawks (0-1) @ Steelers (0-1)—Both teams got hammered last week; since 2003, Steelers are 25-18 vs spread in game following a loss; they’ve won last eight home openers, covering five of last six, allowing just 10.5 ppg in those games. Steelers are just 5-13 in last 18 games when laying double digits; since ’08, they’re 16-21-1 as a favorite, but they did cover 15 of last 24 vs NFC teams. Over last decade, Seattle is 1-9 vs spread as double digit underdogs; since 2005, they’re 11-26-1 on foreign soil, 3-14 last two years. Hawks covered six of last 25 tries as a road dog, but since ’05, they’re 23-19-2 coming off a loss. Seahawks lost field position by 16 yards last week, starting 8 of 13 drives 80+ yards from goal line- they had only 64 rushing yards. Home teams won six of last seven series games; Seahawks are 2-6 in Steel City, with last win in ’99.

Packers (1-0) @ Panthers (0-1)—Defending champs were sharp in opening win, with four TD drives of 76+ yards vs Saints- overall they had five TDs on nine drives. Packers won last five road openers, all by 7+ points; they’re 26-12-1 vs spread in last 39 road games, 10-6 as road favorite last four years. Since 2002, GB is 6-3 when laying double digits. Carolina lost six of last seven home openers (0-8 vs spread in last eight); they’ve covered only 11 of last 30 as an underdog. Since ’06, Panthers are 5-9 as a home dog, but they also covered 10 of last 15 as double digit dog. Green Bay is 7-4 in series, 4-2 in last six visits here, but this is their first here in six years; average total in last three series games is 58.3. Four of Pack’s last five road openers went over; under is 11-3-1 in Carolina’s last 15 home openers.

Bucs (0-1) @ Vikings (0-1)—McNabb had 28 net yards passing in sunny San Diego last week, threw horrible pick on screen pass; Minnesota’s only offensive TD came on 51-yard drive. Not good. Tampa Bay is 12-3-1 vs spread on road under Morris- road teams are 25-6-2 in Tampa games so far in his tenure. Home side won 10 of last 11 Buc-Viking games, but teams haven’t met since ’08; Tampa Bay lost four of last five visits here. Minnesota is 3-7 vs spread in last 10 games as a favorite in its home opener- only once in their last six home openers have Vikings won by more than three points. Bucs lost four of last five road openers; they’re 5-9 vs spread in last 14 games as a dog in a road opener. Under is 14-4 in Bucs’ last 18 road openers, 5-1 in Vikings’ last six home openers.

Browns (0-1) @ Colts (0-1)-- This is first time Browns are favored on road in four years, since Week 16 loss at Cincy in 2007. With Manning out, no Indy trends matter, since they're totally different (much worse) without him. Colts trailed 34-0 at half in Houston last week; Texans had no points, 7 first downs in second half. Colts had only 64 rushing yards, were 1-9 on 3rd down. Cleveland gave up couple of TDs in last 5:00 of home loss to Bengals- they had 11 penalties and were just 19-40 passing. Browns covered two of last eight games as a favorite, but over last decade, they're 5-1 as a road favorite. For what its worth, Colts are 5-0 vs new Browns, with last three wins 9-6/13-6/10-6. Cleveland lost its last five road openers, going 1-3-1 vs spread, with three of the five losses by 17+ points. Over is 7-3 in Cleveland's last ten road openers.

Cowboys (0-1) @ 49ers (1-0)-- Dallas led by 14 in 4th quarter at Swamp last week, but blew lead, first time in franchise history (241-1-1) they lost a game when leading by 14+ in 4th quarter. Since 1988, Dallas is 8-3 as a favorite in its road opener; they've won three of last four overall. 49ers' 33 points vs Seattle last week are little misleading, as Ginn returned PR/KR for TDs within 0:59 in last 4:00 of what was 19-17 game. 49ers are 11-4-1 vs spread at home the last two years; they were 0-5 vs spread after a win LY. Dallas won three of last four series games, with average total in last five, 58.6- they were 0-3 as a road favorite LY,and seem to find ways to lose (like the blocked punt last week) so they need this win to erase last week's debacle. Over is 11-3 in Cowboys' last 14 road openers. You have to give 49ers a big edge in special teams.

Texans (1-0) @ Dolphins (0-1)-- Miami had 390 passing yards vs Patriots in opener, but 213 of its 488 total yards came on last three drives, after Pats had blown game open. Houston won all five games vs Miami, with four wins by 3 or less points; their wins here were 21-20/27-20, with last one in 2009. Since 2004, Dolphins are 11-15 as a home dog; they've lost last five games at home. Fish gave up 519 yards passing last week (10.5 ypa). Texans had 34-0 lead at halftime last week, coasted rest of game; they won three of their last four road openers, with seven of last eight going over total. Texans play Saints/Steelers in next two weeks, they better not look past this hungry opponent. Since 2005, Dolphins are 19-31-1 vs spread in game following a loss; Houston is 17-31-2 in its history coming off a win.

Chargers (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)-- Brady implored fans to get drunk and make lot of noise for this 4:15 kickoff, so expect raucous crowd; New England won its last nine home openers (5-3-1 vs spread), with seven of nine going over the total. Chargers are 1-3-1 vs spread in last five games as underdog in their road opener, but since 2004, San Diego is 19-5-3 overall as an underdog, 6-2-1 as a road dog the last three years. Bolts brought in Bob Sanders to improve its pass defense- Vikings got only 28 net passing yards last week, but McNabb is no Brady, this we know. Pats are 9-6-1 as home favorite last two years. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chargers lost nine of last ten visits here, with only win in 2005- their last visit here was in '07. Chargers are 22-14-1 coming off a win, New England is 34-23-2. Winner is early favorite in AFC.

Bengals (1-0) @ Broncos (0-1)-- Denver is 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last meeting 12-7 on bizarre tipped pass in last minute of '09 opener. Bengals lost last eight visits here; their last Mile High win was 1975, but Cincy won its opener, scoring two TDs in last 5:00 behind journeyman backup Gradkowski. Last 5+ years, Cincy is 16-13 as a road dog. Broncos are now 6-20 SU in last 26 games, since starting out 6-0 in '09- since 2006 they're 5-22-1 as a favorite at home. Some fickle Denver fans were chanting for a QB change to Tebow late in Monday night's loss, so pressure on Orton to play better here, but they also need better balance, after 51 dropbacks, only 13 running plays in opener. Cincy is 10-6 vs spread in game following its last 16 wins. Denver is 15-25 vs spread in game after its last 40 losses.

Eagles (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)-- Over last three years, Atlanta is 13-1-1 against spread in games coming off a loss. Michael Vick returns to Georgia Dome here for first time as an Eagle, so very emotional game for him, after his workmanlike destruction of Rams (237 RY, 8-12 on 3rd down) last week. Atlanta won six of last seven home openers; since 1988, they're 5-3 as underdog in home opener. Eagles scored 37-38-35 points in last three road openers; they're 7-4 as faves in their road opener. Falcons were only NFL team not to score offensive TD last week; they had 52 dropbacks, 14 runs, so expect more balance here. Over last decade, Philly is 27-20 as road favorite, Falcons 7-17 as home underdog; since '07 Eagles are 19-16 coming off a win. Will be curious to see how much of the Georgia Dome crowd is going to be pulling for #7.

Rams (0-1) @ Giants (0-1)-- Rams' coach Spagnuolo is former Giant aide who helped them win Super Bowl, but players win games, and both sides have key injuries. St Louis lost offensive stars Jackson/Amendola in home opener loss, but QB Bradford (bruised finger on passing hand) will play here, much to relief of ESPN. Giants won last four series games, last three by an average score of 36-17, but Big Blue is hurting on defense, losing to Grossman (21-34/258) in opener. Manning converted only 1-10 on 3rd down, as Redskins outscored the Jersey offense 7-0 in second half. Giants are 10-5 as a favorite in home opener; they won last three, by 9-6-13 points. This is Rams' first MNF appearance in five years; they lost their last nine road openers, going 1-10 vs spread in last 11, with last five staying under total.

[Mr. IWS]

Pointwise Phones

3* Giants
3* Steelers
3* Falcons
3* Bucs
2* Bills
2* Lions / Chiefs Over
2* Bears / Saints Over

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO


NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #217 Dallas (-3) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)
Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #216 Indianapolis (+2.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

2-Unit Play. Take #206 Washington (-4) over Arizona (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #220 Miami (+3) over Houston (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

2-Unit Play. Take #225 Philadelphia (-2.5) over Atlanta (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #224 Denver (-3.5) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #211 Green Bay (-3) over Carolina (1 p.m.) AND Take #200 Detroit (-1) over Kansas City (1 p.m.)

I do like a 1.5-Unit Teaser on the Colts (+9.5) and Dolphins (+10) if you are looking for another play.


This Week's Totals
4.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 42.5 Dallas at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 48.0 Houston at Miami (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.0 Oakland at Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 49.5 Philadelphia at Atlanta (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 18)

[Mr. IWS]

SB Professor Original NFL Picks Sunday

Sunday's NFL Picks:

1 PM EST
Oakland Raiders +3.5* (line is +3 -105 at a lot of places but system recommends a half point buy in this scenario for * plays)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

4:15 PM EST
New England Patriots -6.5* (system recommends a half point buy on Home Favorites of -7, which is what New England is listed at in most books)