9-18-11

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Al DeMarco

15 dime - Cowboys

5 dimes - Steelers

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Joe Wiz PAID plays:

BIG GAME: KC +9 (6 units)

TB Bucs +3 (buying half) 3 units

Colts +2 (3 units)

Seattle +14.5 (5 units)

Titans +6 (2 units)

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Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...

40*Dime play on the Oakland Raiders plus*the points against the Buffalo Bills. As I release this selection at*9 am*Eastern, the Raiders are currently listed as a*4 point pup.
*

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jeff scott sports

5 unit
buffalo oakland over 42

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AL DEMARCO

15 dime - Cowboys
5 dimes - Steelers

15 dime play on Dallas as a road favorite against San Francisco. As I release this selection at 3:30 AM Pacific, the visiting Cowboys are -3 at sportsbooks in Vegas and offshore. This is one of those cases I would absolutely buy down the 1/2 point on Dallas if you get the Pokes at anywhere between -3 and -4 points.

5 dime play on Pittsburgh as a home chalk against Seattle. The Steelers, crushed last week at Baltimore, rebound with the win and cover as a 14-point chalk against visiting Seattle.

In my media appearances last week I said I leaned toward the Cowboys because I thought they were getting too many points (+5 1/2) at New York. Never did I say I thought they could actually win the game; I just said it would be close and competitive.

It's funny how public perception affects the logic behind a win or a loss. As you know, thanks to Tony Romo's two turnovers, Dallas coughed up a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead for the first time in franchise history and ended up losing 27-24.

Over the past week all you heard in the media and in Vegas is how Romo cost the Cowboys the game. Granted, that's the truth, but overlooked in all the static is the fact that Dallas totally outplayed the Jets, whom many feel are destined for the Super Bowl, on the road in a near upset.

The Jets were the public money play, too, in that contest, yet Dallas clearly got the job done despite an injury-riddled secondary and lack of a power ground game. New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan threw multiple schemes and packages at New York, crippling its ground game in the process, holding the Jets to just 45 yards rushing.

Back to public perception: San Francisco opened the Jim Harbaugh with a 33-17 victory over a mediocre-at-best Seattle team at home. But the boxscore will show the Niners blew an early 16-0 lead, which turned into a 19-17 advantage, and needed Ted Ginn's special team heroics to put the game away.

San Fran totally collapsed defensively in the second half. Before intermission the 49ers held Seattle to three first downs and 37 total yards. When they returned to the field the Seahawks moved the ball at will with 15 first downs with Tarvaris Jackson passing for 155 of his yards.

Offensively San Fran was nothing special in its opener. Alex Smith was a conservative 15-for-20 for 124 yards. Frank Gore ran for just 59 yards on 22 carries. The team was 1-for-12 on third down conversions and finished with just 209 total yards and 12 first downs. That type of production will not get the job done against Dallas.

When appointed interim coach last season, Jason Garrett inherited a 1-7 squad and rode the Pokes to a 6-2 close with a huge upset of the Giants in his first game out of the blocks. Now as head coach he's responsible for getting his team over the disappointment of last week's come-from-ahead loss. Cut out of the Jimmy Johnson mode, he's got the leadership skills to do so.

The Cowboys played great ball last week against a superior opponent and lost. The quality of their foe goes down this week, which allows us to capitalize on a pointspread which has been deflated because of public perception. They can ill-afford an 0-2 start.

Final projected score: Dallas 24, San Francisco 19

Don't worry about the two-touchdown spread; Pittsburgh is focused after getting routed at Baltimore last Sunday and the Seahawks will serve as the sacrificial lamb.

Was I on Pittsburgh last week? You better believe it. Their effort and Ben Rothlisberger's performance was pathetic. Yes, the Ravens were at home in payback mode, but there's no excuse for seven turnovers. Big Ben was a big bust, getting sacked four times, throwing three interceptions and fumbling twice.

I can only imagine how hard Mike Tomlin rode his team this week. It's only Week Two, but this is a must-win game and one where the Steelers have to put together an impressive performance, especially defensively after letting Ray Rice run through every hole imaginable and Joe Flacco torch the secondary.

With this being Pittsburgh's only home game in the season's first four weeks I'll ride them and their 9-4 ATS record after playing Baltimore to a blowout of a Seattle squad that looked awful in falling behind 16-0 at San Francisco last week. Now they're faced with traveling cross country to tackle an angry bunch of Steelers in a game that starts at 10 AM Pacific.

The Seahawks are on negative runs of 3-16 ATS on the road and 0-5 as a double-digit dog.

Seattle's offensive line, starting two rookies, allowed five sacks to the Niners. Futher crippling the offense is the continued absence of WR Sidney Rice and the questionable status of OG Robert Gallery. Meanwhile, their special teams were destroyed last week by Ted Ginn and one of their key players on that squad, fullback Michael Robinson, is out today as well.

Small investment on the Steelers, who quickly right their ship with a dominating defensive effort.

Projected final score: Pittsburgh 27, Seattle 7

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David Banks

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday night’s Week 2 battle takes NFL bettors to the dome in Hot’Lanta where the Falcons will look to turn the page on last week’s poor showing in the Windy City and secure its first win of the season against the Philadelphia Eagles; Kick-off from the Georgia Dome will air live on NBC at 8:20 ET.
The penned “Dream Team” got off to a roaring start last Sunday in St. Louis where they cruised to the 31-13 road win as four-point favorites behind the efforts of the new 100 million dollar man otherwise known as Michael Vick. Though he completed just 14-of-32 passes, they went for 187 yards and two TDs. He also picked up another 98 on the ground. In all, the Eagles rushed for an impressive 237 yards at 7.6 yards per carry. Philly got a score from the defense and limited what ended up being a punchless Rams attack to just 335 yards of combined offense. Three sacks were also accrued, but remember this unit looked better than it is due to the Rams losing their best RB and WR in the 1st quarter; it’ll be interesting to see how they look in tonight’s spot.
Last week’s effort at Soldier Field was certainly one that got away from the Falcons; real quick. With the game tied 3-3 and the Falcons forcing a three and out, QB Matt Ryan and the offense looked to take the lead on its third possession of the 1st quarter. That said; MLB Brian Urlacher put a quick halt to that by picking off Matty Ice near midfield. A 56-yard TD jaunt by RB Matt Forte later, and Chicago took a TD lead that it would never relinquish. Coach Mike Smith’s squad looked to be severely outclassed as the Bears looked more fundamentally sound in every facet of the game. Another indicator of just how off the team was came in the form of nine penalties for 65 yards that kept the Falcons behind the chains and right in the hands of the Bears cover 2 scheme.
This will be Vick’s return to Atlanta for the first time since the whole dog fighting scandal went down. He got the best of his former team last season in Philly where the Eagles cruised to the 31-17 home win and cover as short two-point favorites. The win improved the Eagles to 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS versus the Falcons since 2005. They trounced Atlanta 34-7 as four-point road chalk in their last visit to the Georgia Dome back in 2009, and enter this spot 5-2 ATS their L/7 as a road favorite of three points or less. Atlanta counters with a 5-1 ATS tally its L/6 off a SU loss of 2+ TDs, and have gone a remarkable 18-2 straight up and 15-5 ATS at home during the regular season with Matt Ryan leading its charge. The ‘under’ is 6-1-1 in these teams L/8 overall meetings and has played to a perfect 5-0 tally the L/5 times these teams went at it in the ATL.
PICK: PHILADELPHIA/ATLANTA UNDER

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David M@linsky

4* Kansas City Royals -106

We’ll go a little shorter on the written details on a busy football morning, but in a series that has been a 24-11 Kansas City blowout to this point, we do not see that momentum changing given the disparate enthusiasm level of the teams. The Royals have out-scored the opposition by 24 runs in winning seven in a row, while for the White Sox it has been an 0-7 implosion in which they have been out-scored by 33. John Danks looks gassed on the hill for Chicago, an 0-3/10.91 over his last three starts in which he has allowed twice as many hits (26) as K’s (13), while Bruce Chen just had his best outing of the season in a shutout of the Twins, with eight K’s vs. only two hits and one W, and brings the personal focus to lower that 4.04 ERA under the 4.00 plateau.

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SAFESTWAGERING

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES ATLANTA FALCONS

The Atlanta Falcons
Most handicappers and analysts like The Falcons today because they had
the best record in The NFL last year, and aren't nearly as bad as they looked against
The Bears. And..... they're already desperate. Historically, teams that start out 0-2,
don't usually make it to the playoffs.
There are other things to like about The Falcons. They had some of the better
receivers in the league last year, and now have added Julio Jones. Michael Turner
may be able to run over the Eagle linebackers. His legs look like Earl Campbell's, and
for those who remember, is built like Robert Newhouse.
Lots of big money is on The Falcons.... I'm not so sure.


The Philadelphia Eagles
Matt Ryan is from Philly, but has never beaten The Eagles. His offensive line
was inefficient last week, and he only managed to get off 3 passes for double digit yardage.
The Falcons may have 3 legitimate deep threats, but the Eagles arguably have the best
corners in the league. They've got 4 specialty starters on offense who should make
The Pro Bowl, and have Steve Smith as a backup. All 3 running backs have different styles,
and all 3 could start on other teams. If Vick stays healthy, and the linebackers don't
over-commit, I expect the Eagles to cover.

Take The Philadelphia Eagles -2

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TONY LADUKE
4* Minn Vikings-2

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MLB
Write-Up


Sunday, September 18

Hot pitchers
-- Greinke is 8-1, 1.93 in his last ten starts.
-- Beachy is 2-0, 3.72 in his last five starts.
-- Myers is 2-0, 1.19 in his last three starts.
-- Cain has a 2.15 RA in his last four starts.
-- Saunders is 3-1, 3.55 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels has a 1.62 RA in his last eight home starts. Carpenter is 1-0, 2.25 in his last couple starts.

-- Weaver is 1-0, 1.20 in his last couple starts.
-- Price has a 2.36 RA in his last four starts.
-- Chen is 6-2, 3.68 in his last eight starts.
-- Verlander is 11-0, 2.73 in his last eleven starts.
-- Hernandez is 3-1, 3.10 in his last four starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Willis is 0-5, 6.20 in his last seven starts.
-- Gee is 1-2, 6.84 in his last five starts.
-- Hand is 0-4, 6.33 in his last four starts. Wang is 0-1, 4.76 in his last five outings.
-- Dempster is 0-4, 4.91 in his last five starts.
-- Rogers is 0-4,5.91 in his last six starts.
-- Harang is 2-3, 3.48 in his last five starts.
-- Billingsley is 0-1, 7.18 in his last five starts. Lincoln is 0-2, 4.02 in his last three outings.

-- Simon is 0-2, 5.87 in his last four starts.
-- Morrow is 0-4, 10.17 in his last five starts. Garcia has a 14.09 RA in his last couple starts.
-- Wakefield is 1-3, 8.58 in his last five starts.
-- Pavano is 2-3, 5.79 in his last five starts. Masterson is 1-3, 6.12 in his last five outings.
-- Danks is 0-3, 12.06 in his last three starts.
-- Moscoso is 1-2, 4.26 in his last four starts.
-- Harrison is 1-1, 7.33 in his last five starts.

Totals
-- Under is 8-3-1 in Astros' last twelve games.
-- Under is 7-2 in last nine Hamels starts.
-- Over is 8-3-1 in Washington's last twelve home games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Milwaukee's last six road games.
-- Five of last six Beachy starts went over the total.
-- Over is 14-4 in last eighteen games at Coors Field.
-- Over is 9-3 in Harang's last dozen starts.
-- Over is 8-3-2 in Pirates' last thirteen road games.

-- Over is 12-5-1 in Angels' last eighteen road games.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in last twelve games at Rogers Centre.
-- Under is 7-2 in Tampa Bay's last nine road games.
-- Six of last eight Chen starts stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Masterson starts went over the total.
-- Over is 8-3-2 in Oakland's last thirteen games.
-- Last six Harrison starts went over the total.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won eight of their last ten games. Phillies won ten of last fourteen games.
-- Washington won five of its last seven games, allowing 14 runs.
-- Braves won three of their last four games.
-- Cubs won five of their last six home games.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last five games.
-- Giants won their last seven games, scoring 45 runs.
-- Dodgers won three of their last four games.

-- Orioles won their last four games, scoring 24 runs.
-- Toronto won five of its last seven home games.
-- Tampa Bay won ten of its fourteen games.
-- Royals won their last seven games, allowing 17 runs.
-- Oakland is 11-7 in its last 18 home games. Detroit won 13 of its last 15 games overall.
-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Astros lost 20 of their last 25 road games.
-- Florida lost four of its last six games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Reds lost 12 of their last 19 games.
-- Rockies lost four of their last five games.
-- Padres lost 17 of their last 22 games. Arizona lost its last three games, scoring a total of three runs.
-- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games.

-- Angels lost four of their last six games.
-- Bronx is 4-6 in its last ten games.
-- Red Sox lost 12 of their last 16 games.
-- White Sox lost their last seven games, allowing 56 runs.
-- Minnesota lost 20 of its last 24 home games. Indians lost eight of last twelve games overall.
-- Mariners lost five of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- Hst-Chi-- Eight of last ten BWelke games stayed under total.
-- StL-Phil-- Over is 7-3-1 in last eleven Darling games.
-- Fla-Wsh-- Over is 8-4 in last twelve Blaser games.
-- NY-Atl-- Favorites won 16 of last 20 McClelland games.
-- Mil-Cin-- Home team won last six Hallion games.
-- SF-Col-- Over is 10-5-1 in last sixteen West games.
-- Az-SD-- Underdogs are 8-3 in last eleven Cederstrom games.
-- Pitt-LA-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Muchinski games.

-- NY-Tor-- Under is 10-5 in last fifteen Iassogna games.
-- Cle-Min-- Seven of last eight Everitt games stayed under total.
-- Det-A's-- Over is 11-3 in last fourteen Dimuro games.
-- LA-Balt-- Home side won five of last six Diaz games.
-- If you're reading this or a site that charges you, you shouldn't be.
-- Chi-KC-- Visitor won ten of last eleven Hernandez games.
-- TB-Bos-- Six of last eight Layne games stayed under the total.
-- Tor-Sea-- Four of last five Bellino games stayed under total.

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Sunday

Play Los Angeles Angels (-190) over Baltimore (Top Play of the Day)
Starts at 1:30 PM EST

Los Angeles has won 91 of the last 145 day games and they have also won 68 of the last 116 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Jered Weaver has won 20 of the last 26 games as a favorite of -110 or higher and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 3.60.

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Play Detroit (-170) over Oakland (Bonus)

Play Milwaukee (-170) over Cincinnati (Bonus)

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Vegas Vic/Philadelphia Daily News

*Packers Best Bet
Falcons
Cowboys
Chargers
Giants
Chiefs

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Mike Lineback

5* Teaser - Lions & Packers

5* Teaser - Jets & Ravens

4* Redskins

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Parlay King 9/18
parlay on Dolphins, 49ers, Panthers and Falcons OVER.

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Sports Gambling Hotline 9/18
Free Play on Vikings -1
Twitter Consensus Play on Eagles/Falcons UNDER 49.5
Carolina +11.