9-19-11

[Mr. IWS]

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DOC SPORTS

3 Unit Play. #128 Take Under 43.5 in St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants (Monday 8:40 pm ESPN)

New York Giants 20, St. Louis Rams 13

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

2-Unit 'Under' 43 St. Louis at NY Giants (8:30 p.m., Monday, Sept. 19)

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DCI

Monday, September 19, 2011
N.Y. GIANTS 26, St. Louis 14

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nflbettingpicks

GOW size:
5* NY Giants -5.5

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NFL
Write-Up

Week 2

Rams (0-1) @ Giants (0-1)-- Rams' coach Spagnuolo is former Giant aide who helped them win Super Bowl, but players win games, and both sides have key injuries. St Louis lost offensive stars Jackson/Amendola in home opener loss, but QB Bradford (bruised finger on passing hand) will play here, much to relief of ESPN. Giants won last four series games, last three by an average score of 36-17, but Big Blue is hurting on defense, losing to Grossman (21-34/258) in opener. Manning converted only 1-10 on 3rd down, as Redskins outscored the Jersey offense 7-0 in second half. Giants are 10-5 as a favorite in home opener; they won last three, by 9-6-13 points. This is Rams' first MNF appearance in five years; they lost their last nine road openers, going 1-10 vs spread in last 11, with last five staying under total.

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Pointwise Phones

3* Giants

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POINTWISE:

NYG over STL 5

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Prediction Machine
60% Plays

New York Giants -4.5

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Vegas Vic/Philadelphia Daily News

Giants

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Defeat Your Bookie

Mat Earlson
5* NY Giants -6

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Monday's Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking

Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies (18-5, 2.34 ERA)

Halladay threw his eighth complete game of the season in his last start to help the Phillies clinch a playoff spot with a 1-0 win over the Astros. He struck out seven and walked one. Over his last four starts, he has given up just three earned runs as he chases down another Cy Young trophy.

Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves (5-2, 4.11 ERA)

With Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson on the shelf, Minor is getting a big opportunity with the Braves. He picked up a no-decision in his last start but is 2-0 with a 3.74 ERA over his last four outings.

“I feel better and better every time I go out there,’’ Minor told reporters. “I feel like more a part of the team than just a fill-in. I think they kind of trust me now a little bit.’’

Slumping

Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles (1-7, 9.84 ERA)

Matusz hasn’t pitched since Sept. 5, when he gave up five runs in 1 1/3 innings in an 11-10 loss to the New York Yankees. Since then he’s been working on the side with pitching coach Rick Adair and feels more confident about his stuff.

"I feel like I've definitely made strides in terms of going out there and getting a good feel in the bullpen and working,” Matusz told reporters.”As for the results, the game will be the deciding factor but I feel like I've made adjustments to go out there with confidence."

David Huff, Cleveland Indians (2-5, 3.40 ERA)

Huff was drilled for eight runs in just four innings of work in a 9-1 loss at Texas last week and has now dropped each of his last three starts. He has allowed four home runs over that stretch but managed to go at least six innings in three outings before the blowout loss to Texas.

[Mr. IWS]

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (N/A)

Tensions are high in Beantown these days as the Red Sox continue to struggle down the stretch and they’ll be even higher if they can’t take care of the Orioles in Monday’s doubleheader.

The Red Sox lost again Sunday and now sit just two games ahead of Tampa Bay in the wild card race. There was also some speculation that Adrian Gonzalez is dealing with a shoulder injury, but the team says that isn’t the case.

"Gonzi has been taking BP every other day on the field for about a month and a half," Red Sox manager Terry Francona commented over the weekend. "When FOX comes in and announces that, they could have announced it in July, and then I have to answer it. That's not any big surprise. He's backed off for a long time.”

Gonzalez didn’t say much about his shoulder when asked about it but did say that he has been too aggressive at the plate lately, swinging at pitches out of the strike zone instead of taking walks.

The Sox have a lot of issues right now and with the scuffling Kyle Weiland on the mound for the first game of the doubleheader an Orioles bet looks tasty.

Pick: Orioles

Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs (+140, N/A)

It looks as though all the Brewers needed was a trip to Cincinnati to get back on track. Milwaukee had lost six of eight before heading to Cincinnati, but after a sweep of the Reds, the Brewers’ magic number sits at four.

"We did well on both sides, hitting and pitching," Prince Fielder told reporters. "Especially to do it on the road gives us extra confidence. They play us tough here. In this series, we played them better. It's a great feeling right now. But we still have to close things out."

They should be able to take another step closer to the playoffs Monday as they send out Chris Narveson against the struggling Casey Coleman, who gave up six runs in just 3 2/3 innings against the Reds last week.

Pick: Brewers

[Mr. IWS]

Rams at Giants: What Bettors Need to Know

St. Louis Rams at New York Giants (-6.5, 44)

THE STORY: The St. Louis Rams resembled a M*A*S*H unit before the end of last week's season-opening loss to Philadelphia. That won’t earn much sympathy around the NFL, particularly from the injury-riddled New York Giants, who host the Rams on Monday Night Football in their home opener.

Bumps and severe bruises aside, the most pressing concern for both clubs is avoiding an 0-2 start to the season after each suffered double-digit losses a week ago. One intriguing subplot is the return of Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo, who was New York’s defensive coordinator in its stunning run to the Super Bowl following the 2007 season.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-1): New York failed to mount much offense and didn’t score in the second half of last week’s 28-14 loss at Washington. Eli Manning had an interception returned for a TD in the first two minutes of the second half and wound up getting sacked four times.

He could be without top wide receiver Hakeem Nicks, who is battling a badly bruised knee. Nicks had seven receptions for 122 yards against the Redskins. The Giants were without defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck last week, although Tuck could play Monday. They already lost starting cornerback Terrell Thomas and middle linebacker Jonathan Goff for the season.

ABOUT THE RAMS (0-1): Star RB Steven Jackson burst up the middle for a 47-yard TD on his first carry last week. He exited with an injured quad on his next carry and is a game-time decision to play against the Giants.

St. Louis also will be without Danny Amendola, last season’s leading receiver, and cornerback Ron Bartell. At least three other starters could miss the game. QB Sam Bradford is expected to wear a glove to protect the finger he injured in last week’s 31-13 loss to the Eagles. Cadillac Williams excelled in place of Jackson, rushing for 91 yards and catching five passes for 49 yards.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning is 2-0 with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in two games against the Rams, who have dropped four in a row to the Giants.

2. Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, needs 300 yards to reach 4,000 for his career. He’ll be hurt by the absence of Amendola, who had 85 catches last season.

3. With Spagnuolo as the defensive coordinator, the Giants amassed a league-high 53 sacks in 2007. The unit was instrumental in slowing down Tom Brady and New England’s high-powered offense in New York’s stunning Super Bowl upset.

TRENDS:

The Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off ATS loss.

The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday night games but 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

The over is 4-1 in the Rams' last five games as underdogs and 15-7 in the Giants' last 22 games overall.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The G-Men opened up between 4.5- and 5.5-point favorites and have been bet up to the touchdown spread. Most shops still have New York favored by 6.5 points but a few books have made the move to -7.

The total opened at 43.5 and hasn't moved much all week. Sunday night 44 was the most commonly used number for this game's total but bettors should expect the line to grow as public bettors back the over in the stand-only game.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Rams 13. RBs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for only 73 yards on 19 carries last week. Expect a renewed emphasis on the running game as the Giants gradually wear down the battered Rams.

[Mr. IWS]

Monday’s Betting Tips

Who’s hot

NFL: St. Louis is 8-2 against the spread coming off an ATS loss.

MLB: Arizona has won 18 of its last 24 games.

MLB: Atlanta has won 10 of its last 12 meetings with Florida.

WNBA: Indiana is 11-4 against the spread in its last 15 home games.

Who’s not

NFL: The New York Giants are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games dating back to last season.

MLB: Milwaukee is 5-16 in its last 21 road games.

MLB: Boston has lost 13 of its last 17 games.

WNBA: The over is 2-7 in Phoenix’s last nine games overall.

Key stat

9 – Only nine NFL teams that started the season 0-2 straight up have rebounded to make the playoffs since 2000.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies – The team doesn’t expect Howard to play before Thursday after he hurt his big toe over the weekend. Howard was already dealing with a heel issue that has kept him from starting a number of games over the last couple of weeks.

Game of the day

St. Louis Rams at New York Giants (-6.5, 44)

Notable quotable

"We're happy as [expletive]. We've got a two-game lead with 10 to go. We're ready to go. That's basically it, man. We're not going to feel sorry for ourselves for playing like crap. Nobody's going to give us anything." – Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia on the team’s recent slump. Boston hosts Baltimore in Monday’s doubleheader.

Notes and tips

If you’re looking to get your MNF bet in, you’d better shop around. The line is currently has the hometown Giants set as 6.5-point favorites, but there are still some 7-point lines out there. The total is holding steady at 44 points.

The San Francisco Giants activated closer Brian Wilson from the 15-day disabled list on Sunday. Wilson hasn't pitched since Aug. 15 because of inflammation in his pitching elbow. He made only four appearances last month before the Giants had to shut him down. Wilson had a major league-leading 48 saves last season in leading San Francisco to the World Series title. This season, Wilson is 6-4 with 35 saves and a 3.19 ERA