9-22-11

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DCI

FBS Non-Conference
NC State 38, CINCINNATI 28

Ohio Valley Conference
TENNESSEE-MARTIN 29, Murray State 28

[timbob]

INSIDER ANGLES

Week 4 NCAA Trends & Angles
This week's featured NCAA angles have to do with teams that were underdogs in the last two or three games, and now suddenly find themselves cast in the favorite's role.
Oftentimes, these are teams that are not used to being favorites and thus have trouble dealing with the pressure in games that they are actually expected to win. This angle bears itself out with the first two of our weekly trends and angles for Week 4. You will also notice that all trends this week are since 2005.

Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last two games (175-121-2, 59.1% ATS since 2005): Betting against these favorites in unchartered territory would have produced a nice profit of +41.9 units since 2005 based on one unit per play at odds of -110. This angle is already 1-0 ATS this season as Buffalo covered at Ball State last week, and there are five qualifiers for this week: UAB +13 at East Carolina, UL Lafayette +17 at Florida International, Bowling Green +6 at Miami Ohio, New Mexico State +10½ at San Jose State and Middle Tennessee State +11½ at Troy.

Play against any conference home favorite that was an underdog in each of its last three games (96-59-1, 61.9% ATS since 2005): Tack on a third straight game as an underdog coming into this game to our first angle and the winning percentage jumps to nearly 62 percent over a fairly nice sized sampling. The one qualifier from our first angle that is facing a home conference favorite that was a dog the first three weeks this season is New Mexico State +10½.

Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a straight up loss by 25 points or more (138-103-9, 57.3% ATS since 2005): This angle is similar to one of our favorite NFL angles, as bettors do not like betting on teams that just got blown out, allowing books to give these teams added value by inflating their lines by a point or two. The fact that they are playing a conference game helps them improve vs. a familiar opponent. This angle debuted with a bang in Week 3 by going 2-0 both ATS and straight up with a couple of nice sized dogs (Duke, Tulane). There are three more qualifiers for Week 4: Middle Tennessee State +11½, UAB +13 and UCLA +3½.

Play on any non-conference home underdog coming off of a straight up win (109-77-4, 58.6% ATS since 2005): It is usually wise to consider underdogs early in the year when the lines are the softest, and home underdogs are often in that situation based more on the reputation of the favorite, as the season is still too young to base lines completely on performance. The fact that the dogs are coming off of a win means that they have at least some ability, and this angle has gone 14-10, 58.3 percent so far in 2011, although it did go just 2-4 ATS in Week 3. This angle looks to bounce back with three plays for Week 4: Ball State +4, West Virginia +6 and Wyoming +23½.

Play the 'under' in non-conference games if the home team's last 2 games went 'over' (98-72-1, 57.6% since 2005): This is a contrarian angle having to do with books padding totals after a team goes 'over' in a couple of games, especially since the general public loves betting the 'over'. This angle turned up for the first time in 2011 last week and the 'under' went just 2-2. Look for better results this week in these three matchups: NC State at Cincinnati, UL Monroe at Iowa, and Temple at Maryland.

Bet against any conference home favorite coming off of 2 home games (82-51-7, 61.7% ATS since 2005): Some may think that playing a third straight home game is an advantage, and while that may be true on the field, it has not been at the betting windows as books are aware that these teams have an advantage and bettors like to bet on them, so they are able to pad these lines. Also, if the third straight home game is a conference game, the home team is usually facing a team that is familiar with them. This angle went only 0-1-1 ATS in its 2011 debut last week, but there are two more qualifiers this week: UAB +13 at East Carolina and Oklahoma State +3½ at Texas A&M. This is our third angle this week that has includes UAB, potentially making the Blazers our Trend Play of the Week.

[timbob]

George Pappas Investments

9/22

3* North Carolina State vs Cincinnati University OVER 59.5

9/24

3* Georgia vs Mississippi OVER 54.5

[timbob]

NCAA Football Game Picks

NC State at Cincinnati

The Bearcats look to build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games against a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/21)

Game 301-302: NC State at Cincinnati (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 81.823; Cincinnati 91.756
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 10; 63
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

North Carolina State at Cincinnati: What Bettors Need to Know

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 60.5)

THE STORY: Depleted North Carolina State visits a Cincinnati team eager to avenge last year’s 30-19 loss in Raleigh, N.C., which sent the Bearcats plunging to 4-8 after consecutive Big East titles. Led by senior quarterback Zach Collaros, Cincinnati is averaging 51.3 points (4th nationally) and 433 total yards.

The Wolfpack will be without linebacker Terrell Manning, defensive tackle J.R. Sweezy and possibly defensive end Jeff Rieskamp. Earlier, corner Jarvis Byrd was lost for the season. Coach Tom O’Brien said his staff is like “the Dutch boy, putting fingers in the dike.”

TV: ESPN

LINE MOVES: This spread has bounced between 7.5 and 8 while the total opened at as low as 59.5 and has been since been bet up.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA STATE (2-1, 0-1 ACC): Redshirt junior Mike Glennon has done well taking over for Russell Wilson. In his last three halves, he’s completed nearly 70 percent of his throws and tossed seven TDs. Sophomore CB David Amerson leads the ACC with three interceptions and is tied for second nationally. But the defense has struggled in the red zone, allowing opponents to score on all eight trips (four TDs, four FGs).

ABOUT CINCINNATI (2-1, 0-0 Big East): RB Isaiah Pead has run for 257 yards and four TDs on just 27 carries. Collaros needs 141 yards to become the fifth Bearcat to pass for 5,000 career yards. His favorite target is D.J. Woods, who has 15 grabs for 232 yards and a score. The defense forced six turnovers in last week’s rout of Akron, returning two interceptions and a fumble for touchdowns.

WEATHER: There is a 28 percent chance of rain at Nippert Stadium for kickoff Thursday. The forecast is calling for more of the wet stuff as the game continues. Rain could have an impact in the fourth quarter, which should catch the attention of second-half bettors.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Wolfpack senior WR/returner T.J. Graham averages 194 all-purpose yards, which ranks second in the ACC and sixth nationally.

2. Bearcats freshman K Tony Miliano has had two FG tries blocked this year, including a 43-yarder last week against Akron. He also nailed a 47-yarder.

3. The game will be O’Brien’s first in his hometown since 1973, when he played at Xavier.

TRENDS:

- Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
- Bearcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-0 in Wolfpack's last four non-conference games.
- Under is 9-1 in Bearcats' last 10 Thursday games.

PREDICTION: Cincinnati 34, N.C. State 21 – The Wolfpack are missing several key defenders, and Collaros will capitalize.

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Thursday's Best NCAACFB Bet

North Carolina State Wolfpack at Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 60.5)

The Cincinnati Bearcats have already been embarrassed once this year on national television. Now, they get to stand all by themselves on the Thursday night football betting slate, as they host the NC State Wolfpack.

Things in the ACC are getting rough this year, and the Wolfpack are really no exception. The truth of the matter is that Head Coach Tom O’Brien and company really never did live down the fact that QB Russell Wilson wanted to play baseball more than football, and after releasing him from his scholarship, we have to wonder whether NC State regrets making that decision. QB Mike Glennon has put up respectable numbers this year, completing 64.1 percent of his passes for 745 yards and eight TDs against just one pick, but the fact that this team has only played on FBS opponent, a loss against the lowly Wake Forest Demon Deacons, doesn’t speak highly about the future of the club. Wins against the South Alabama Jaguars and the Liberty Eagles just isn’t all that impressive, especially knowing that the defense allowed a total of 34 points in those two games, the same amount that it allowed to the Demon Deacons in the ACC opener two weeks ago. If the ‘D’ can’t step it up this week, there could be a big, ugly number put on the board by the hosts.

betonline.comUC’s offense has had absolutely no problems this year either, but its schedule looks virtually the same as that of the Wolfpack. The Bearcats do have an FBS win this year over the Akron Zips, but they might as well be an FCS school. Their win over their FCS team though, a 72-10 win over the Austin Peay Governors was significantly more impressive than the average FBS win over an FCS school. The issue, again, is the defense. The one test that the Bearcats had defensively this year, they failed and failed miserably. The Tennessee Volunteers, albeit it a very, very impressive team, won 45-23 in Rocky Top two weeks ago in that nationally televised game, a loss than neither Cincinnati, nor the Big East will probably ever live down. The question that we have for the Bearcats is whether QB Zach Collaros is going to be allowed to air it out. It wasn’t that long ago that Collaros was the kid that came off of the bench to replace QB Tony Pike in the team’s run in the Top 25. The tools around him just aren’t as good though, and the end result is that Collaros only has 521 passing yards in three games. However, his accuracy has been fantastic, throwing seven TD passes without an INT.

NC State Wolfpack @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: The Bearcats are the better club this year, and we know it. The loss against Tennessee was excusable, knowing that the Vols, even if they finish at 7-5, would probably come darn near to running the table in the Big East. NC State wouldn’t run the table in the Sun Belt. It’ll show on Thursday night.

PICK: Cincinnati -7.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
SF Giants, LA Dodgers MLB Betting Preview
By: Matty Simo


San Francisco Giants at LA Dodgers (-110, 6.5)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will face the San Francisco Giants for the last time this season on Thursday when they close out a three-game series at Chavez Ravine. The Giants saw their season-high eight-game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday night, and they are getting closer to being eliminated from playoff contention one year after winning the World Series.

The Dodgers had won four of the last five meetings with the Giants heading into Wednesday’s game, as ace Clayton Kershaw earned the victory in three of them. They tied the season series at 8-8 following Kershaw’s 20th victory of the year on Tuesday.

Los Angeles will send Hiroki Kuroda (12-16, 3.19 ERA) to the mound for the series finale off a home win against Pittsburgh last time out. He had lost consecutive starts for the first time since July 27 but allowed only one earned run against the Pirates on a solo homer by Alex Presley in the sixth inning.

Kuroda got the victory as a heavy 190 favorite, and the ‘over’ improved to 7-0-1 in his last eight outings. His team has scored seven runs or more in his last five wins and two or less in his past two losses.

San Francisco will counter with lefty Madison Bumgarner (12-12, 3.21), who has won each of his last five starts. Bumgarner has been outstanding during that stretch, giving up more than one earned run just once.

One of those wins came against Kuroda and the Dodgers on September 11, as Bumgarner surrendered one run and three hits in five innings with three walks and eight strikeouts. That was his shortest outing since July 30, and he has been favored in his last six starts with the ‘over’ cashing in the past three.

Bumgarner has enjoyed a lot of success against Los Angeles during his career with a 4-1 mark and 2.97 ERA in six games. He has won three in a row against the Dodgers this season since suffering his only career loss to them back on April 11.

Game time is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. (ET), and umpire Jim Wolf will be behind the plate. Wolf’s presence may help San Francisco since the road team is 19-12 this season when he calls balls and strikes.

The ‘over’ is also 17-10 when Wolf has served as the home plate umpire.

The temperature for first pitch in LA is forecast to be in the mid-70s, cooling down to a low of 63 degrees after the sun goes down.

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday's Streaking And Slumping Starting Pitchers

STREAKING

Jeanmar Gomez, Cleveland Indians (4-2, 3.78 ERA)

Ever since Gomez made some adjustments to his delivery in the minors, he’s been throwing smoke following his return to the bigs. Extra life on his fastball has helped him win four straight starts while posting a 1.88 ERA over that stretch. He gave up just two runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 10-4 win over Minnesota last weekend.

Madison Baumgarner, San Francisco Giants (12-12, 3.21 ERA)

Bumgarner allowed a single unearned run over seven innings to earn his fifth straight win last weekend, a 9-1 decision over the Colorado Rockies. His ERA is just 1.04 over those five games and he now has his season WHIP at 1.22.

"This kid is just getting better and better," manager Bruce Bochy told reporters. "He's been on a good roll, really hitting his spots with all his pitches. He's got to feel good about how it's gone for him, especially with the rough start that he had."

SLUMPING

Anthony Swarzak, Minnesota Twins (3-7, 4.52 ERA)

Swarzak’s recent numbers are downright nasty: 0-4 in his last five starts with an 8.49 ERA. His last outing was even worse, when he gave up seven runs over 1 2/3 innings in a loss to Cleveland.

"Lack of command, didn't execute," Swarzak told reporters after that loss. "Had a game plan out there and got away from my game plan a little bit. When you don't have a game plan and you're not executing, you're not going to get many outs. So I ended up getting beat around today."

Henry Sosa, Houston Astros (2-5, 4.74 ERA)

Sosa has lost three in a row, but was solid in two of those outings. While he gave up five runs in just 2 2/3 innings in a loss to the Nats on Sept. 11, he held his opposition to a pair of runs over six innings in his other two starts this month, including a tough 2-1 loss to the Cubs last weekend.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-155, 9)

The New York Yankees are no strangers to tight playoff races down the stretch, so it wasn’t really any surprise that they did a little tinkering with their starting pitching rotation ahead of Wednesday’s doubleheader with the Tampa Bay Rays.

When Wednesday morning rolled around the Yankees informed everybody that Hector Noesi would start the matinee instead of CC Sabathia and that Sabathia would go later that evening.

Of course, with Tampa Bay and Boston battling it out for the wild card, it seemed a little fishy that the Yanks would make a late switch like that.

“It had an odor of that,” Rays manager Joe Maddon told reporters if he thought New York was playing some gamesmanship. “I don’t know if that’s exactly what was going on. I’m OK with gamesmanship. I’m into gamesmanship. It’s part of the dance, and I’m good with all that stuff.”

At any rate, the Yanks clinched a postseason berth with an afternoon win and then claimed the division later that evening. They send Bartolo Colon to the mound Thursday.

Gamesmanship or not, we like Jeff Niemann and the Rays here.

PICK: Tampa Bay


Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros (-120, 9)

There’s lots to dislike about the Houston Astros – their offense, their defense, the 33 units they’ve cost their supporters this year – but manager Brad Mills isn’t on that list.

He has kept his cool this season despite the team’s disgusting 53-102 record, though that doesn’t mean he’s going to let this young, rebuilding team lay down before the end of the year.

“We’ve seen us play some real good baseball in the last month, two months, it’s been a while,” Mills told reporters following Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to Cincinnati. “We’ve been playing real good ball. Today was one of the most disappointing and frustrating games for me to see us go through some things. We had some opportunities and couldn’t get them.”

They certainly did and they’ll have a great chance to make amends Thursday against a struggling Rockies team that sends Alex White to the hill. White has allowed at least four runs in each of his five starts with Colorado, serving up 12 dingers during that span.

PICK: Houston

[Mr. IWS]

Thursday’s Betting Tips: Jones Spying On Rampage?

Who’s Hot

NCAAF: The over is 3-0 in Cincinnati’s first three games of the season and is 7-3 in the club’s last 10 home games.

MLB: The Los Angeles Dodgers are 20-7 in their last 27 games.

MLB: Washington has won eight of its last 10.

WNBA: Atlanta has covered in 11 of its last 13 meetings with Indianapolis.

Who’s Not

NCAAF: Cincinnati is 6-14 against the spread in its last 20 overall.

MLB: Toronto is 5-12 in its last 17 games as an underdog.

MLB: Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 meetings with the Yankees.

WNBA: The over is 2-8 in Phoenix’s last 10 games overall.

Key Stat

1 – The New York Yankees have failed to make the playoffs just once over the last 17 years following Wednesday afternoon’s 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yanks clinched the division title later in the evening when they beat Tampa Bay again and Boston suffered another disappointing loss.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Hunter Pence, Philadelphia Phillies – Pence sat out Wednesday’s action after an MRI of his left knee showed a patella tendon strain. Word has it he won’t suit up again until the weekend. So far he’s hitting .323 with nine homers and 28 RBIs since coming over from the Astros.

Game Of The Day

North Carolina Wolfpack at Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 60.5)

Notable Quotable

"If you look at the production, usually guys get paid off their production. You look at their production and what level that's on and you look at the guys who produce similar and what they get paid and it's not that hard. Obviously, somebody doesn't believe I'm an elite running back." – Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte. The Bears are set as set as 3.5-point underdogs at home to Green Bay. Forte has 324 all-purpose yards through two games this season.

Notes And Tips

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is accusing his UFC 135 opponent Jon Jones of planting spies within his training team. “You know what I'm saying the kid is guilty,” Rampage said on Dan LeBatard Show Wednesday. “He knows he has spies in my camp. I think we have narrowed it down to who it is. We're just focusing on this upcoming fight and stuff like that. If he didn't put the spies there himself then his manager did and he knew about it. He feels guilty.” Jones is set as a -600 favorite in Saturday’s fight.

The WNBA Conference finals begin Thursday with Minnesota set as 7-point favorite at home to Phoenix, while Atlanta visits Indiana as a 2.5-point underdog. Phoenix’s offense fell from 89 points per game to 76.7 points per game in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Atlanta is really playing up the underdog card heading into the series. “The pressure's not really on us, the pressure's on them because everybody's expecting them to beat us,” Fever Tamika Catchings told reporters. “It's win or go home time. We really want to play for a championship and really feel like we have a championship caliber team.”

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo will be adding some extra protection for his damaged ribs for Monday night's game against the Washington Redskins. ESPN reported that Romo will be fitted with a special vest to help cushion his cracked ribs from any hard hits. Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall said Romo will need the extra padding because he plans on targeting the injured area at every opportunity. “I want to get a chance to put my helmet on whatever’s hurt,” Hall said. “If it’s Romo’s ribs? I’m going to be asking for some corner blitzes. ... That’s part of the game. If you know something’s wrong with an opponent, you want to target in on it.” Oddsmakers have yet to post a line for the game.

[Mr. IWS]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Atlanta at Indiana

The Dream look to open up the series and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Atlanta is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3). Here are all of today's picks

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Atlanta at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 113.738; Indiana 113.734 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 152 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 158 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Minnesota (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.677; Minnesota 119.053 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 177 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 173 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Over

[Mr. IWS]

Today's MLB Picks

NY Mets at St. Louis

The Mets look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 2-5 in Jake Westbrook's last 7 starts as a favorite. New York is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+165). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: NY Mets at St. Louis (1:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Capuano) 15.424; St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.212 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-185); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+165); Under

Game 903-904: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Peacock) 14.529; Philadelphia (Oswalt) 15.310 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 8 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-180); Over

Game 905-906: Colorado at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (White) 14.595; Houston (Sosa) 13.037 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Over

Game 907-908: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 17.007; LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 15.840 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Under

Game 909-910: Seattle at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 15.378; Minnesota (Swarzak) 13.414 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-110); Under

Game 911-912: Texas at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 15.225; Oakland (Cahill) 16.048 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+130); Over

Game 913-914: LA Angels at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 15.892; Toronto (Alvarez) 15.973 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over

Game 915-916: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Humber) 14.745; Cleveland (Gomez) 13.785 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-105); Under

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Britton) 16.878; Detroit (Turner) 16.110 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+130); Under

Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 15.104; NY Yankees (Colon) 15.999 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

[Mr. IWS]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

722- 530 57 % Run over 3 YEARS

Free one Thurs: NC ST + 8 19-5 run

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees (first game) Wednesday.

Thursday it's Cincinnati. The deficit is 2596 sirignanos.