9-30-11

[timbob]

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[timbob]

DCI

BYU 42, Utah State 14
TCU 39, Smu 16

[timbob]

DOUBLE DRAGON NCAA

TOP

UTAH STATE +7.5 at byu

[Mr. IWS]

FRIDAY BETTORS TIPS AND NOTES
Friday’s Betting Tips: Rookie SP To Start Game 1 For TB
By Covers Staff


Who's Hot

MLB: Texas has won 28 of its last 39 home games.

MLB: Detroit has won 12 of its last 16 road games.

NCAAF: Utah State is 14-5-1 against the spread in its last 20 games as an underdog.

Who’s Not

MLB: Tampa Bay is 2-6 in its last eight playoff games.

MLB: The New York Yankees have lost four in a row.

NCAAF: BYU is 5-15-1 against the spread in its last 21 games against WAC opponents.

Key Stat

1978 – The Utah State Aggies haven’t won at LaVell Edwards Stadium since 1978, a span of 15 consecutive games. The Aggies are 7.5-point road underdogs against BYU on Friday.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers - Martinez won't let a bruised toe keep him out of Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series against the New York Yankees on Friday. Martinez fouled a ball off his big right toe in Wednesday's season finale against the Cleveland Indians. The injury occurred in the first inning, and he was eventually lifted in the seventh. The team's medical staff had to drill into the nail of his big toe to drain it. Martinez hit .330 this season with 12 home runs and 103 RBIs in 540 at-bats.

Game Of The Day

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees (-135, 7)

Notable Quotable

"This team never quits. We didn't quit when we were 0-6 at the start of the season, we didn't quit in September, we didn't quit when we were seven runs down in the last game of the season and Boston was winning. It looks like this team has what it takes." – Tampa Bay lefty David Price after his club bailed him out of Wednesday’s comeback win over the Yankees. Price allowed five earned runs and two homers over four innings before the Rays fought back to clinch a postseason berth with an 8-7 win in extras.

Tips And Notes

The Tampa Bay Rays announced Thursday that rookie left-hander Matt Moore will start Game 1 of the American League division series against the Texas Rangers. The 22-year-old Moore will be making his second career start on Friday. He has pitched just 9 1/3 innings this season in the majors since being called up from the minors. In his first career start, Moore struck out 11 batters in five scoreless innings against the New York Yankees. Tampa Bay completed a remarkable comeback Wednesday to win the wild card, beating the Yankees on Evan Longoria’s home run in 12th inning. The Rays are +165 underdogs in Game 1.

Just three games into his Minnesota Vikings tenure, Donovan McNabb is already butting heads with the coaching staff. A report out of Minnesota suggests coaches have approached McNabb about correcting some mechanical issues related to his throwing arm. McNabb replied by saying there's nothing to fix, and that "some throws, you just miss." McNabb has completed just 58 per cent of his passes through the opening three games of the season, throwing for 478 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The Vikings (0-3) face Kansas City on Sunday.

Third baseman Alex Rodriguez and catcher Jesus Montero are expected to be fine in time for the start of the American League Divisional Series between the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers. Rodriguez was given Wednesday's regular-season finale off to rest his surgically repaired right knee, which felt sore. Rodriguez said he simply didn't want to risk further injury playing on Tampa Bay's turf surface. The 36-year-old appeared in just 99 games this season due to injuries. He batted .276 with 16 homers and 62 RBIs in 373 at-bats. Montero took a foul ball off his fingers in Wednesday's loss to the Rays. X-rays came back negative and he's expected to assume the role of backup catcher against the Tigers. Montero, 21, had a sensational stint in his first taste of major-league action, hitting .351 with four homers and 12 RBIs in just 57 at-bats. The Yankees are set as -130 favorites for Game 1.

[Mr. IWS]

CANADIAN BACON

Friday's Best CFL Bet

Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+6.5, 49.5)

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are dealing with injuries at key positions. Quarterback Buck Pierce, who has been nursing a rib injury, will be out of this showdown for first place in the East, leaving the starting job to Alex Brink.

That could prove to be a fatal blow to any hope the Bombers had in winning their division. The hiring of journeyman Michael Bishop is a clear sign that all is not well in Swaggerville. Of course we must also mention the loss of both starting RB Fred Reid and Carl Volny for the remainder of the season, weakening considerably their offense. On defense, Winnipeg will be without DT Doug Brown.

The Alouettes had better news this week when it was announced that Anthony Calvillo didn’t suffer a concussion after the brutal hit he took last Friday in Edmonton. Wideout Kerry Watkins will be back in the lineup for Montreal, giving Calvillo another option to go deep. On defense, Montreal still has a number of injuries but the players who were promoted as starters - Seth Williams, Greg Laybourne, Jeff Hecht and Marc-O Brouillette - have no reason to be ashamed of their play so far.

PICK: Montreal Alouettes


Edmonton Eskimos at B.C. Lions (-5.5, 49)

The Lions will be back at their newly-renovated B.C. Place after an 18-month exile and with more than 41,000 spectators on hand, it should be quite an explosive welcome.

B.C. has won five in a row and it’s no surprise that after a terrible 0-5 start that this club is seen as a heavy favorite to participate as West division representative in the 99th Grey Cup at B.C. Place.

Lions quarterback Travis Lulay is showing poise and confidence, appearing more and more like one of the best quarterbacks in the CFL. He’s developing some great chemistry with receivers Geroy Simon and Arland Bruce.

The Eskimos are much healthier than they were when they were hammered 36-1 by the Lions earlier this season, but while the score shouldn’t be that lopsided, the end result in the standings should be the same.

Also note that veteran kicker Paul McCallum, the dean of active players in the CFL, has hit 24 consecutive field goals. He only needs four more to tie the all-time record established by former Roughrider Dave Ridgeway.

PICK: B.C. Lions

[Mr. IWS]

CFL NEWS AND NOTES
CFL Betting Notes - Week 14
By David Schwab


The underdogs were out in full force last week in the CFL as not only did all four ‘dogs cover against the spread, they each won their game straight up as well. Montreal got the ball rolling last Friday as a one-point road underdog with a 34-21 victory over Edmonton. In the first of a Saturday double-header, British Columbia rolled over Saskatchewan 42-5 as a 1½-point road underdog. Toronto then shocked Winnipeg 25-24 as a three-point home underdog to pick-up just its third win of the year. Hamilton completed the sweep this past Sunday with a 55-36 rout of Calgary as a one-point home dog.

Friday, September 30

Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (OFF) Over/Under (OFF)

Montreal’s win last Friday moved it just one game back in the East Division with an overall record of 7-5 SU (6-6 ATS). It is 3-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed ‘under’ in two of its last three games. Winnipeg is feeling the heat in the East at 8-4 SU (8-4 ATS) with losses in two of its last three games. It is 4-2 SU and ATS at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in eight of its 12 games this year.

The Alouettes dropped a 25-23 decision to the Blue Bombers earlier in the season as 7½-point home favorites. They are 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings, but just 2-4 ATS in the last six. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the last two games. Both starting quarterbacks, Anthony Calvillo for Montreal and Buck Pierce for Winnipeg, are listed as questionable for Friday’s game so keep an eye on the lines as the week progresses.

Edmonton Eskimos at British Columbia Lions (-5½) Over/Under (48½)

Despite last week’s loss, Edmonton is still tied for first-place in the West Division with a 7-5 SU record (6-6 ATS). It is 4-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of its last seven games. BC’s five-game winning streak has it just one-game back in the West as 6-6 SU (7-5 ATS). It is 2-3 SU and ATS at home and the total has stayed ‘under’ in its last seven games.

These two teams split their first two games this season with the Eskimos winning 33-17 as 2½-point home favorites in Week 3 and the Lions returning the favor with a 36-1 romp as 5½-point road underdogs. The total stayed ‘under’ in both games. BC and Edmonton are ranked one and two in the CFL in points allowed as both defenses are giving up less than23 points a game.

[Mr. IWS]

HOT LINES

Friday’s Best MLB Bets

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (-175, 8)

It’s hard to bet against the Rangers in Game 1.

They have won 14 of their last 16, have a killer record at home (52-29) and own an offense that produced 5.28 runs per game. Plus they have C.J. Wilson on the hill Friday, a guy who has allowed more than two runs only once over his last 11 trips to the hill.

But if you were ever going to put a nice underdog bet down based largely upon momentum, you’d be hard pressed to find a better spot than Friday’s game.

"I love what the Rays do and create a first within the organization, but now we've done something as a first for Major League Baseball," Rays manager Joe Maddon said after his team pulled off a remarkable 8-7 win over New York to punch their playoff ticket.

"It's all on the guys, it's all on the coaches. If you're with us on a daily basis, the work routine, the camaraderie, the coaches preparation is outstanding. That's how we're able to overcome a nine-game deficit going into September."

Down 7-0 to the Yanks, they pulled themselves off the mat with Evan Longoria leading the way and are now playing with the house’s money. They have won five straight games and managed at least five runs in each of those victories.

At this price, we’re jumping all over the Rays to keep it going.

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

[Mr. IWS]

MLB NEWS AND NOTES
Texas Rangers Begin AL Pennant Defense Vs Rays
By Willie Bee


Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers (-175, 8)

To quote the great philosopher David Byrne, "Well, how did I get here?"

The Tampa Bay Rays find themselves in the American League playoffs following one of the most improbable September runs in MLB history. Their comeback – coupled with an equally amazing collapse by the Boston Red Sox – was completed with an incredible 12-inning win over the New York Yankees on the final day of the season to push the Rays into an ALDS rematch from a year ago with the Texas Rangers.

Game 1 is set for a 5:07 p.m. (ET) first pitch Friday evening at Rangers Ballpark with TBS covering the contest. CJ Wilson has been tabbed by Texas manager Ron Washington to begin the Rangers' defense of the 2010 AL Pennant. Rays skipper Joe Maddon will go with Jeff Niemann in hopes of continuing the team's improbable run.

Opening numbers at MLB betting windows made the Rangers solid 175 favorites with an 8-run total.

Even watching it all unfold the past few weeks, and especially Wednesday night, it's still hard to believe. Tampa Bay was nine games behind the Red Sox for the fourth and final playoff slot in the AL when play ended Sept. 2 before reeling off a 17-8 mark the rest of the way. Six of those 17 wins came at the expense of Boston, the heavy 4/1 favorites to win the Junior Circuit after another offseason spending spree by Sox GM Theo Epstein.

Tampa Bay was by no means a huge long shot to get this far. Even with the salary/roster purge the Rays went through last winter, they opened spring training as a 20/1 pick to win the 2011 World Series, right there with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox who, like Boston, have been cleared to begin getting their golf games back in tune.

Leaving Tampa for greener pastures were Carl Crawford, Carlos Peña, Matt Garza, Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit and Grant Balfour. In their place trotted in Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, the ageless Johnny Damon and, yes, Manny Ramirez. Remember him?

Third place in the AL East was deemed the best the Rays could hope for, but Maddon and his troops ignored that talk.

The run to get here has left Maddon's rotation out of whack for this series, though I'm sure he's not panicking. After all, his starters finished fourth in the majors with a 3.53 ERA, just a tad better than Texas' 3.65 mark.

Ideally, Maddon would give the ball to James Shields, but he would be pitching on short rest after taking the mound this past Monday in the series opener against the Yankees. With rookie Jeremy Hellickson and southpaw David Price also out of the picture, it left Maddon with a decision between Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and rookie Matt Moore who has made all of one career start in the majors.

Niemann (14-9, 4.06) was the logical choice despite losing twice to the Rangers in September. All told, the big righty worked 9 2/3 innings against Texas this season while allowing 12 runs.

The rotation is in much better shape for Washington and the Rangers despite Texas going hard to the end trying to gain the 2-seed in the American League bracket. Like the Rays, it's a staff without a really big name but has proven tough to beat.

That's been especially true of Wilson (21-13, 2.94) the past two seasons. Texas is 45-25 since the beginning of 2010 when the lefty takes the hill, including the postseason. Four of those 45 wins came facing the Rays.

Wilson beat Tampa Bay twice in early September, both wins coming at the expense of Niemann. He no-decisioned against the Rays in a Texas loss on May 31, and finished the season with a 2.07 ERA in 21 2/3 innings facing Tampa's lineup.

Texas was even hotter in the final month than Tampa Bay, winning 19 of 25 games and closing on a 14-2 run with a 6-game win streak to enter the postseason.

The ALDS last year between these two clubs went the full five games with the visitors earning the dubya in each matchup. The Rangers held a 5-4 advantage in the 2011 season series, going 2-1 at home and 3-3 on the road. Two of the three clashes in Texas stayed 'under' the total.

Believe it or not, the weather forecast for Friday in Arlington does not call for scorching heat. A cool front is pushing through the state today leaving what should be clear skies and a game-time temp in the low 80s with very little humidity. A north wind in the 12-18 mph range is also part of the equation (from 3B out to RF corner).

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Friday's Best CFB Bet

Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars (-7.5, 51)

For the second straight week, the BYU Cougars are going to be playing at home in Friday Night Football. This time though, they are huge favorites on the NCAA football odds against the Utah State Aggies.

The Aggies aren’t quite at the level yet of being the best team in the Beehive State, but they are definitely making some headway and could be inching up on the likes of BYU and the Utah Utes with wins like this one. Yes, the team has two losses this year, but the defeats against the Colorado State Rams and Auburn Tigers came by a combined five points, and both games were absolutely winnable at the death. That being said, these are the games that good teams win and bad teams lose, and that could be a bad foreshadowing for what might be the biggest game that USU will play all season long. Offense definitely hasn’t been a problem for the Aggies, as they have dropped at least 34 points in all three of their games this year. Duel threat QB Chuckie Keaton has 465 yards through the air and another 130 on the ground, totaling five TDs without an INT. The frosh is definitely learning on the job though, and he is going to be looked upon to pull off the same amazing upset that QB Diondre Borel did last year in this fixture at home against the Cougs.

The season hasn’t exactly been salvaged for Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall and company, but a win under the Friday night lights against a solid UCF Knights club was definitely a victory to savor for the program in its first year of independence. Now, Utah State is going to provide a different type of challenge. Whereas that game against the Knights was considered by many to be a tossup, this is a duel that BYU is expected to win, and it is the first game of its sorts this year for a team that has already had close calls against the Ole Miss Rebels and Texas Longhorns as well. Still, averaging just 291.2 yards per game with a returning quarterback in Jake Heaps and a running back like JJ Di Luigi that should be able to do just about everything on the field is unacceptable, especially for a program that used to be known as “QB U.” The Cougars haven’t scored more than two offensive TDs in any game this year.

Utah State Aggies @ BYU Cougars Pick: Be very, very careful, BYU. We tend to think that the Aggies are better than their record indicates, and after last week’s win against UCF, the Cougs are probably going to feel all high and mighty about themselves. Don’t be overly surprised if this one comes right down to the final few ticks on the clock, just as most of the other BYU games have this year.

PICK: Utah State Aggies +7.5

[Mr. IWS]

CFB NEWS AND NOTES
Utah State at BYU: What Bettors Need To Know
By Covers Staff


Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars (-7.5, 51)

It’s no Holy War, but there is plenty of bad blood between the Aggies and Cougars. Utah State upset BYU 31-16 as a 4-point home underdog last October, the first time it had beaten its state rival in the past 11 meetings going back to 1994.

The Old Wagon Wheel is up for grabs when these programs collide under the Friday night lights.

Run, Robert Run

The Aggies boast the fifth-best rushing offense in college football, behind the quick feet of running back Robert Turbin.

After missing the entire 2010 season due to injuries, Turbin has picked up where he left off in 2009, when he rushed for 1,296 yards – 21st in the nation. This year, he's amassed 365 yards through the first three games and has found the end zone eight times – tied for the fourth most rushing TDs. He scored four of those touchdowns in last week's loss to Colorado State.

"I think he is a great running back. In fact I was just telling our offensive staff I would love to coach him," BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall told KSL.com. "He plays hard and runs physical, runs for power and doesn't back down. He is fun to watch; I really think he is a great player."

The Cougars have struggled against the run this season, allowing more than 138 yards per game. Against Central Florida last week, BYU did a much better job containing the run, allowing only 81 yards on the ground in the 24-17 win.

However, in the 54-10 loss to Utah, the Cougars were bowled over for 242 rushing yards, giving up 6.4 yards per carry. Turbin enters Friday’s game averaging 5.7 yards a run. The Aggies have scored five rushing touchdowns in each of their first three games.

Death From Above

Brigham Young was lucky to escape with a win over UCF last week, needing three second-half turnovers from the Knights and a 93-yard kick return touchdown to battle back from 14 points down.

The Cougars were outgained 399-260, with 318 of those UCF gains coming through the air. The secondary wasn’t on the same page, with corners and safeties mixing up assignments. Mendenhall blamed some of the confusion on struggles during training camp but admitted that his pass defenders need to sharpen up heading into Friday.

“We will have to keep improving that, or no matter what size of a lead we might gain, we could be at risk because of the chunks of yardage that could come by not executing over-the-top coverage, which is a bigger part of it than underneath coverage, because of the point potential,” he told the Salt Lake Tribune.

Last season, Utah State opened scoring with a 79-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Diondre Borel to receiver Xavier Martin in the win over BYU. The Aggies finished with just 192 yards through the air.

The Cougars are currently ranked 50th against the pass, giving up 209 yards passing through their first four games.

Fresh Meat Or Ground Chuck?

Brigham Young's pass rush is licking its chops with freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton lining up under center for Utah State.

Keeton, who won the starting job over Adam Kennedy, isn’t the main focus of the Aggies offense, which was evident in last week’s 35-34 overtime loss to Colorado State. Keeton passed the ball only 15 times, completing nine of those throws for 86 yards.

"Chuckie struggled a lot making his reads," Aggies head coach Gary Andersen told the media. "College football caught up to him on Saturday."

The lack of a passing threat makes USU’s game plan very predictable, which concerns Andersen. He told reporters he would like to get Keeton more involved in the offense but still has trouble trusting the young pivot.

"That’s the number one priority," Andersen said. "Colorado State came up with a good pass rush and that affected our timing. That’s a concern because BYU is very good at getting pressure on the quarterback. We have to pass block in order to be effective on Friday."

Keeton went 21 for 30 for 213 yards in the Aggies' near upset of Auburn to start the year. Utah State ranks 104 out of 120 FBS programs in passing, averaging just 167 yards per game.

Trends

- Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
- Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
- Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Prediction: BYU 27, Utah State 21 - The Cougars slow down a one-dimensional Aggies attack and avenge last year's loss.

[Mr. IWS]

CKO

Confidential
Kick-Off
11 UTAH STATE over *Byu
Late Score Forecast:
UTAH STATE 30 - *Byu 24
(Friday, September 30)

[Mr. IWS]

Prediction Machine

GTECH -9 61.9
Illinois -8 61.8
S Carolina -9 60.3

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Pittsburgh Thursday night.

Friday it's the Yankees. The deficit is 2774 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo ran with the Bulls last night and ended up getting gored as South Florida was trampled in Pitt to push the deficit to 1,905 willoughbys.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will attempt to tighten up the sinkhole a little more by giving the ball to CC -- 20 units on the Yanks to pose problems for Zoolander. As for the ALDS plays, he will ride the Bombers and take a shot with CindeRayla to avenge last year's ouster by Texas -- 20 units apiece.

[Mr. IWS]

Gamblers Data

Free Play Friday

BC (CFL) -5.5