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Football Jesus free pick is ARIZONA CARDINALS (per his podcast)
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SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS –1 over Detroit
Lions are flying high while the Cowboys are taxiing midair, trying to smooth out a bumpy ride, despite Dallas’ moderate success. That bodes well here as we get the benefit of the ‘Boys Monday night performance and the salty taste left in most mouths despite the win. While it took six field goals and zero touchdowns to secure that win, the most important aspect of that game may have been the sudden maturation of QB Tony Romo, displaying leadership qualities previously in question. Detroit had to overcome a 20-0 deficit before eking out an OT win in Minnesota. Now the Lions will play their third road game in the first four weeks and must travel on consecutive weeks to play a team that will have the luxury of being home again and having next week off. Young Lions also in danger of looking ahead to next week’s rare Monday night appearance against visiting Bears. Small price to spot under ideal conditions. Play: Dallas –1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
N.Y. Jets +3½ over BALTIMORE
Jets stock is low after humbling loss to Raiders while Ravens stock is high after dismantling of Rams last week. This is where Jets are most comfortable, taking back points against a quality opponent in a prime time game. In the middle of a three-game road trip for the New Yorkers, with the last stop being next week in New England, this one becomes crucial. Expect a solid effort from Rex Ryan’s group after they admittedly played poorly in loss to Oakland last week. For the Jets, that means pressuring the quarterback and we expect a much more aggressive effort from New York’s defensive packages. Baltimore may have roughed up St. Louis last week but we still don’t trust Baltimore’s shaky secondary, which was anything but tested against the Rams’ inept aerial game. Jets have scored 24 points or more in all three games and they’re taking back a tag for first time this season. Play: N.Y. Jets +3½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
HOUSTON –3½ over Pittsburgh
We’ve all come to know the Steelers as an extremely physical team that wears out opponents, keeps the game close and finds a way to win it in the fourth. The Steelers have been a model no-nonsense outfit forever. They seldom miss the playoffs and every year it seems they have a shot at winning it all. The Steelers are also a highly public team that gets plenty of backing because of a rather unblemished reputation for being tough as shoe leather. The Steelers are also 2-1 and nothing appears out of place. Check again. This edition of the Steelers is nowhere close to being as good as previous years. Their two wins have come against Seattle and Indy. As a 10½-point choice against the Colts, Pitt needed a field goal on the game’s final play to win it. Had Curtis Painter hit a wide-open Pierre Garcon late in the game the Steelers would be 1-2. Against a quality opponent, the Ravens in week two, the Steelers were destroyed. Pittsburgh’s pass protection is awful, the running game is non-existent and the defense is not even average anymore. This is far and away the most overrated and beatable Steelers club in decades. The Texans are also 2-1. They’ve played one home game and beat Indy 34-7. They also went into Miami and won by 10. Last week in New Orleans they racked up 473 yards of total offense and were oh so close to pulling off the upset against a great team. This is a defining moment for the Texans. They’ve been deservedly labeled underachievers for years and if they’re not sick of hearing about it by now, they should be. Houston is loaded with offensive talent that can rack up points and yards on anyone. In two road games this year, the Steelers have only scored a total of two offensive touchdowns. If the Steelers can’t make this a defensive matchup they’ll get flushed away early. The truth is they can’t. Play: Houston –3½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
This Week's Survivor pick:
TAMPA BAY over Indianapolis:
The best part about this one is that you get to use up a team that you may not get another chance to use the rest of the season while saving Green Bay and Philly for another time. The Bucs really don’t have a “gimme” game the rest of the year. They’ll take on a Colts team that is really in trouble. Indy is thin on talent and thick on injuries. Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said the team is preparing as if QB Curtis Painter will be the starting quarterback in Week 4. Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount are just warming up and with a rare Monday Night appearance, expect the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders. Most folks will go with Philly or Green Bay this week, so sit back, take the Bucs and hope one of those other two lose.
THE REST (with no wagers):
49ers (2-1) at Eagles (1-2)
Those records you see above are correct. Not exactly what most projected but things should even out when this one is said and done. The Eagles figure to be miffed after losing to rival Giants while San Fran’s wins have come against the hapless Seahawks and Bengals respectively. TAKING: EAGLES –9
Redskins (2-1) at Rams (0-3)
Has Washington’s bubble burst after demoralizing loss to Dallas on Monday night? Winless Rams may be even more demoralized but teams rarely get punched out in consecutive home games and with the ‘Skins traveling on a short week, St. Louis can steal one here. TAKING: RAMS +1½
Titans (2-1) at Browns (2-1)
Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 300+ yards in back to back games but now finds himself minus his favorite target, as Kenny Britt is lost for the season. Browns aren’t fancy but their methodical ways can lead to win here over suspect visitor. TAKING: BROWNS @ PK
Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati (1-2)
Bills take their undefeated record to Cincinnati to face the bumbling Bengals. Easy sledding, right? Not in this league. Emotion plays a big part each Sunday and after Buffalo’s ginormous win over the Patriots, the jubilation may not have worn off in time to focus on this opponent. Throw in the fact that the whole world is laying this seemingly cheap price and the red flags become even more prevalent. We would be very, very cautious about laying the tag because that’s precisely what the books want you to do. TAKING: BENGALS +3½
Saints (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2)
We all know who the better team here is but we’ve seen the Saints snooze in situations like this, as evidenced by New Orleans having just one cover in last 10 against teams with a losing record. We’ll err on the side of caution with a Jags team that has covered four of past five here. This one also smells like the one above. TAKING: JAGUARS +7
Vikings (0-3) at Chiefs (0-3)
Vikes favored to win on the road? One of these dregs will be off the schneid. Style points matter, and these Vikes are the master of the second half melt-down. The Vikings were ahead 20-10 late in the 3rd quarter when confronted with a 4th and 1 outside of field goal range. Leslie Frazier’s inclination was to punt and to try to pin the Lions offense deep, so he started to send out the punting unit. But then Adrian Peterson (who apparently has the power of veto) waved them back off. Peterson called the shots at a critical juncture of the game. However, when the ball was snapped, it was not Peterson, but Toby Gerhart that plowed into a brick wall of Lions who correctly foresaw the unimaginative play-call. Can’t wait to see if Peterson benches McNabb next week. When the coach loses control and respect of team, we all know what happens next. If Chiefs weren’t so unwatchable, this could’ve made our top plays. TAKING: CHIEFS +2
Panthers (1-2) at Bears (1-2)
Rookie quarterbacks are greatly aided by a strong running game but with QB Cam Newton being Carolina’s leading rusher, challenges lie ahead. The Bears defensive schemes are tough to cope with and we expect Cam Newton’s inexperience to fall victim to much of it. TAKING: BEARS –6
Falcons (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)
Falcons fell for the old ‘hard count” on 4th & 1 last week with the game on the line. Offsides. Game over. We all know that defensive guys aren’t traditionally collectively the smartest players on the field, but the coach just reminded you on the sidelines during the time out you took to discuss the play, “don’t jump off-sides, he’s going to try to draw you off-sides.” Chances are he said it more than once. What he probably said after they jumped offside was “OMFG”! In a related note, these guys are also suckers for the old, “there is a spot on your tie” and “you’re shoestring is untied” gags. Not exactly enamored with the Seahawks but we’re similarly unimpressed with an underachieving Atlanta bunch. The Falcons couldn’t tackle Betty White at the moment and until we see them toughen up, we’re reluctant to spot road points with them, no matter who the opposition might be. TAKING: SEATTLE +4½
Giants (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)
Cardinals travel terribly and after a pair of close road losses, they’ll be happy to return to the desert. The Giants found a way to upset the Eagles last week but they remain extremely thin in their secondary and receiving corps. It is also New York’s third road game in four weeks after huge win in Philly. Letdown spot with a banged up club is not a recipe for success. TAKING: CARDINALS +1
Patriots (2-1) at Raiders (2-1)
You can’t just conveniently sweep New England’s 32nd ranked defense under the rug. Without a pass rush, opposing quarterbacks are having their way against the Pats secondary. Raiders looked solid in win over Jets and are home again, rested and anxiously awaiting this litmus test. TAKING: RAIDERS +5
Dolphins (0-3) at Chargers (2-1)
If the Dolphins weren’t victorious in last week’s game against the Browns, they may never win. Miami has struggled terribly in the red zone and that does not bode well against a team that has the ability to fill up the scoreboard. It is really hard to win in this league with a backup quarterback as a starter and an assistant head coach as a head coach. Sparano is obviously doomed here, but maybe Parcells can get him a job at ESPN when he mercifully gets the axe. Chargers are unreliable but are slightly preferred in this matchup and they’ll blow out somebody real soon. Dolphins are ripe. TAKING: CHARGERS –7
Broncos (1-2) at Packers (3-0)
Lend the Broncos five points and they’d be undefeated. Well, it’s never that simple but we can’t ignore the slim margins in Denver’s games. Combination of Broncos getting healthier and Green Bay suffering some maladies of its own, this one should stay within range. TAKING: BRONCOS +12½Comment
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RICK NEEDHAM
Patriots (-5.0) at Raiders October 2, 4:00 PM CBS
The New England Patriots head West to take on the Oakland Raiders on Sunday afternoon. It's not often where one can say this, but the Raiders are coming off a big win, while the Patriots are licking their wounds after a heartbreaking defeat. Usually, those roles are reversed, but the Raiders have shown they are ready for an upsurge. In a 10-point win at home against the 2-0 Jets, they showed that perhaps this game isn't the laughingstock that we have recently been conditioned to think. The fact that a New England team with Tom Brady averaging 440 yards passing per game is such a modest favorite against Oakland shows a new respect for this Raiders team. Long mired in shambles, they partially emerged last season with an 8-8 mark. This year offers new promise; with an opening week win at Denver, followed two weeks later with a win over the Jets. In between, they lost a 3-point game at Buffalo, which looked a lot worse before that same Bills team beat the Patriots on Sunday-also by a field goal.
One might be concerned about most teams that blew a 21-0 lead at Buffalo to lose by a last-second field goal. With the Patriots, it shouldn't be too much cause for panic. After easily handling Miami and San Diego, they probably grew a little complacent upon seeing themselves up by 3 touchdowns and let their foot off the gas pedal. They were facing an uppity Bills team with a plucky young QB and got nipped at the wire. It's going to happen in this league. If anything, the loss should refocus them. The way their defense allowed the Bills to come back was not inspiring, but Brady's 4 picks didn't help. It drowned out an otherwise powerful performance by Brady and Co. that saw him rack up 387 yards and 4 touchdowns. WR Wes Welker caught an amazing 16 balls for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. Their running game was kept in check for the most part, but aren't teams allowed to lag in certain areas from time to time?
It looks like the Raiders are really responding to new head coach Hue Jackson. On defense, there is no question that some key losses in the offseason have taken their toll, but the offense looks prepared to answer the call. QB Jason Campbell has been efficient and steady-a big improvement considering recent Raiders quarterbacking issues. Darkhorse rookie Denarius Moore is developing into a nice little playmaker, leading the team in receiving yards. But most important is the continued blossoming of RB Darren McFadden. His 1152 yards and 5.2 rushing average in 2010 signaled a coming out party. This year, however, he seems to be taking it to the next level. Against the Jets, he was lethal, rushing for 171 yards and 2 touchdowns against a normally stingy "D." A 70-yard touchdown run in the 2nd quarter had that kind of "WOW" factor that really seems to confirm what a star McFadden has become. McFadden hurt his groin apparently, but will play on Sunday. The Patriots took some knocks too, with TE Aaron Hernandez and DT Albert Haynesworth among the injured, with both being questionable for Sunday. As far as motivation is concerned, both teams have a lot on the line. It's almost a fork-in-the-road moment for Oakland. Will they rise to the occasion or show they still need time? For the Patriots, they certainly want to avoid going an unseemly (for them) 2-2 and Brady is looking to atone against a defense that on paper; might be in over its head.
Oakland is showing signs of life, especially on offense. Defensively, it's another story. This "D" has given up 117 yards rushing to Buffalo's Fred Jackson, 304 yards passing against Kyle Orton in their win over Denver, and 369 yards to Mark Sanchez on Sunday. Numbers can be misleading, but against an irritated Tom Brady who is on fire and a New England offense that will be looking for blood, the Raiders will be put to the test. Look for a close game to break out a bit late with the Patriots getting the cover. I'll TAKE THE PATRIOTS to both win and cover!
RICK'S "HOT-SPOT" PLAYS
SAINTS (-6.0) OVER JAGUARS
THE UNDER (43.0) COLTS AT BUCSComment
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egas Sports Plays
Johnny Yang
Record 5 - 7
3.3* New Orleans Saints -7
3.3* San Diego Chargers -7
Brooks Riley
Record 4 - 7
3.3* Detroit Lions +2.5
3.3* Chicago Bears -6.5
Glenn Long (owner)
Record 5 -7
5.5* Houston Texans -3.5
Carter Williams
Record 3 - 0
7.7* Philadelphia Eagles -9
The System NFL
Record 11 - 0 - 2
4.4* Baltimore Ravens -3.5
4.4* New York Giants -1
4.4* New Orleans Saints 6.5 (buy a point down if nec) -120
4.4* Dallas Cowboys -2.5Comment
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