10-2-11

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist

25* Pro Shocker Game of the Year
Denver Broncos

Denver plays hard for new coach John Fox, with games decided by 3, 2 and 3 points. Denver has a decent QB in Kyle Orton (5 TDs, 3 INTs), and the defense is improved from last season, ranked in the middle of the pack. Newcomers cornerback Jonathan Wilhite and rookie linebacker Von Miller are tied for the team lead in sacks with two each. They are getting healthy for this game: Linebacker D.J. Williams and running back Knowshon Moreno took part fully in practice Thursday. Both are expected to play Sunday at Green Bay. It will be Williams' first game action since he suffered a dislocated elbow in the preseason. RB Willis McGahee is expected to start at running back, with Moreno splitting carries if he continues to show he's ready to go. The Broncos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Green Bay is banged up, with right tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee), running back Ryan Grant (kidney) and cornerback Charles Woodson (foot) battling injuries. Bulaga and Grant are not expected to play. The Packers defense was great last season, but not as sharp so far, ranked 29th in yards allowed and 23rd in points allowed. The Packers are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and the Denver offense has enough to keep this close. Play the Broncos!


20* Pro Football High Roller 'Total' Annihilator
Patriots/Raiders Over

Both defenses have huge weak spots, but both offenses are very good -- and uptempo. This is the second straight road game for New England, a team with an unstoppable offense and a leaky defense (like last year). QB Tom Brady (11 TDs, 5 INTs) has a slew of offensive talent to the highest scoring team in the NFL last season. Newcomer WR Chad Ochocino joins WRs Wes Welker and Deion Branch and the real threat of this offense is outstanding TE Rob Gronkowski. They looked sharp in a 35-21 win over San Diego, with 504 yards (378 passing), though the defense allowed 470 yards (372 passing) while forcing 4 turnovers. The linebacking group struggles in coverage, a contributing factor to San Diego coverting 10-of-12 third downs, including 6-of-6 in the second half. The Pats had a 21-0 lead at Buffalo Sunday but then collapsed in a 34-31 loss allowing 448 yards (369 passing). Brady threw 4 picks Brady and went 30 of 45 for 386 yards, but the banged up defense looked lost in the second half. The Over is 16-2 in the Patriots last 18 games as a favorite and they are 19-4 over the total in the Patriots last 23 games overall. Oakland (2-1 SU/3-0 ATS) is playing with some fire led by a dynamite ground game in RB Darren McFadden and an improving QB Jason Campbell (3 TDs, 1 INT) with new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who is a great addition. The rolled up 234 yards rushing in Sundays 34-24 win over the NY Jets (McFadden had 171). Denarius Moore scored on a 23-yard reverse , too, so they are tricky for this new offensive coordinator. A secondary that lost its best cover man (CB Nnamdi Asomughathis) offseason gets a tougher test this week. The only game they've lost was blowing a 21-3 halftime lead at Buffalo. They had plenty of offense (454 yards) but the defense was awful in a 38-35 loss at Buffalo, allowing 481 yards (217 rushing). The defense gave up 25 second-half first downs, 326 yards, 164 of which were running yards on 14 carries. The weather is perfect, so look for far more offense than defense; Play the Patriots/Raiders Over the total.

[timbob]

Pitt viper

ROT# 213 – 1:00pm - Washington Redskins -2.5 ROT# 213 – 1:00pm - San Francisco 49ers +10

*Monday*
ROT# 237 – 8:35pm - Indianapolis Colts +10.5

O/U:
ROT# 207 – 1:00pm - Detroit/Dallas OVER 46
ROT# 222 - 1:00pm - Carolina/Chicago UNDER 43
ROT# 225 – 4:05pm - Atlanta/Seattle OVER 38

[timbob]

Vegas Vic/ Philadelphia Daily News

Falcons Best Bet 2-1 for year
Eagles
Patriots
Jets
Rams
Colts
Lions
Jaguars
Titans
Bengals
Chiefs
Bears
Steelers
Cardinals
Broncos

Last week 6-10

[timbob]

Totals 4 U
Top Plays

Det/Dall OVER 46
NYJ/Balt UNDER 42-

Regular Plays

Tenn/Clev UNDER
Buff/Cincy UNDER
Car/Chic UNDER
Pitt/Hous OVER
Atl?Seatt UNDER
NYG/Ariz UNDER
Mia/SD UNDER
GB/Den OVER
NE/OAK UNDER

[timbob]

Platinum PLays

Premier Plays (Top Play)

Detroit
NE

500K Plays
Houston

400K Plays
Balt
NYJ/Balt OVER

Regular Plays
SF
Wash
Cincy
Minn
Atl
Miami
Den/GB OVER

[mike d]

Gold Sheet
Solid Gold Pick
New Orleans

[timbob]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 46 Denver/Green Bay

[timbob]

Hot lines: Sunday's best MLB bet

Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona thought it received some good news when St. Louis stole the wild card from Atlanta, thus sending the Diamondbacks to Milwaukee instead of Philadelphia to face the mighty Phillies.

Perhaps that news was not so good after all.

Arizona mustered just four hits and one run in a 4-1 Game 1 loss to the Brewers on Saturday afternoon. Yovani Gallardo went eight innings and mowed down nine Diamondbacks' hitters. The D-Backs are now 1-7 in their last eight playoff road games and 0-5 in their last five postseason games overall.

If scoring runs was a problem against Gallardo, it could be even more difficult against Miller Park master Zack Greinke. Milwaukee is a hard-to-imagine 15-0 in Greinke's 15 home starts this season. The right-hander is 11-0 in the friendly confines of his own ballpark and sports a 3.13 ERA (compared to 4.70 on the road) with 119 strikeouts in 95 innings.

Going for the Diamondbacks is Daniel Hudson, who was a consistent force throughout the regular season. The 24-year-old righty compiled a 16-12 record to go along with a solid 3.49 ERA. Although he really heated up down the stretch, Arizona lost his final three starts and Hudson--despite decent numbers--took the loss in all three.

Pick: Brewers

[timbob]

Sunday’s betting tips: Road tests for Lions, Bills

Who’s hot

NFL: The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five against the AFC.

NFL: The Redskins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

MLB: The Cardinals are 5-0 in Chris Carpenter’s last five starts against the Phillies.

MLB: The Brewers are 15-0 in Zack Greinke’s last 15 home starts.

WNBA: The Dream are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.

Who’s not

NFL: The Browns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

NFL: The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six against the NFC, and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

MLB: The over is 0-5 in Arizona’s last five road games and 0-5 in Milwaukee’s last five playoff games.

MLB: The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four overall heading into Game 1 on Saturday night.

WNBA: The under is 2-8-1 in Atlanta’s last 11 road games.

Key stat

0 – Number of rushing touchdowns scored by the Kansas City Chiefs through the first three weeks of the NFL season. The Chiefs are scoring a ridiculously bad 9.0 points per game, with three TDs to go along with three PATs and two field goals. Kansas City’s ground game—and its offense as whole—may have a tough time turning things around on Sunday against a Minnesota team that is ranked fourth in the NFL against the run (67.3 yards per game).

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Miami Dolphins’ rookie running back Daniel Thomas was ruled out Saturday for his team’s Week 4 visit to San Diego. Thomas also missed the season opener with this hamstring injury. In two games, the former Kansas State star has 41 carries for 202 yards in addition to one receiving touchdown. Steve Slaton, whom the Dolphins claimed off waivers on Wednesday, will see plenty of action.

In other running back news, the Arizona Cardinals expect Beanie Wells to be ready for Sunday’s home game against the Giants. Wells rushed for 183 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry before missing last week’s loss at Seattle with a hamstring problem. The Ohio State product looked good in practice on Friday and is all set to play barring a setback during **** warm-ups.

Biggest games on the slate

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 43.5)

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 46)

Notable quotable

“I think it's really a fresh week for us. Like I said, there's nothing that we can do about what's happened. We're trying to bring a fresh, new plan, new energy. We're trying to put it together against a damn good football team.” – New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady, who sounds like he could be talking about his recent haircut, but is instead alluding to a Week 3 loss at Buffalo and a Week 4 date at Oakland. Brady threw four interceptions last Sunday as New England was stunned by the Bills.

Tips and notes

Both the Lions and Bills will put their undefeated records on the line on the road during Week 4 NFL action—the Lions at Dallas and the Bills at Cincinnati. Watch out, because the Cowboys are second in the NFL against the run at 61.3 yards per game. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will have to keep the air assault firing on all cylinders in order to put up points. As for the Bengals, they are 1-2 but could just as easily be 3-0 and they are fourth in the NFL against the pass at 188.3 yards per game.

Desperate times call for desperate measures in St. Louis, with the Cardinals trailing Philadelphia 1-0 in the NLDS. Tony La Russa was already planning to go with Chris Carpenter for Game 2 in order to give his ace a chance to pitch twice in the best-of-five series, and now he really has to since the Cards would have to win three straight in order to end the series in four. As a result, Carpenter will be pitching on three days of rest on Sunday. How many times as he done that in his entire career? Zero.

The Minnesota Lynx are just a six-point home favorite over the Atlanta Dream for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals despite what some numbers would suggest. Minnesota and Atlanta faced each other twice during the regular season, with the Lynx cruising 96-85 at home and dominating 77-64 on the road. Furthermore, Minnesota is 17-3 at home this season, including 14-6 ATS.

[timbob]

What bettors need to know: Sunday's NLDS matchups

St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (-170, 7)

THE STORY: Chris Carpenter has never ventured to the mound on three days' rest during his career. The St. Louis Cardinals are hoping Carpenter's maiden voyage is a successful one on Sunday as they look to even their National League Division Series at one game apiece against the Philadelphia Phillies. The visiting Cardinals watched as an early three-run lead went by the boards and the NL East champions benefited from a five-run sixth inning to record an 11-6 triumph in Game 1. Cliff Lee will provide the opposition for the Phillies, who have won six consecutive games in the NLDS.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA) vs. Phillies LH Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA)

Carpenter was simply brilliant in his last outing, scattering two hits and striking out 11 in a complete-game gem against the Houston Astros on Wednesday. The 36-year-old former Cy Young Award winner owns an impressive 7-2 career mark against the Phillies - with a pair of victories to his credit this season. He allowed one run over seven innings in an eventual 12-2 rout on June 23 before tossing eight scoreless frames in a 5-0 win on Sept. 18.

This is why Lee returned to the City of Brotherly Love - although a five-year deal worth $120 million can certainly help him purchase his fair share of cheesesteaks, too. Lee hopes to take the first step toward a third straight World Series appearance when he takes the mound on Sunday. The 33-year-old Arkansas native improved to 3-1 in his career against the Cardinals by scattering six hits in a complete-game shutout on June 22.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS: Lance Berkman belted a three-run homer in the first inning to quiet the crowd at Citizens Bank Park on Saturday. Berkman's blast was his first since he got the better of Roy Halladay last month as well. Berkman has fared well versus Lee, going 5-for-13 in his career with three doubles. Albert Pujols went 1-for-3, but manager Tony La Russa noted that the slugger is being plagued by a minor heel injury. Rafael Furcal returned from a two-game absence with a hamstring injury and went 1-for-4. Five-time All-Star outfielder Matt Holliday did not start due to tendinitis in his right hand. He struck out to end the game.

ABOUT THE PHILLIES: Ryan Howard launched a three-run homer to ignite a five-run sixth inning on Saturday. The St. Louis native added a run-scoring sacrifice fly for his 31st RBI in postseason play, moving him into first place in franchise history. Hunter Pence enjoyed his first taste of the postseason, going 2-for-5 with a two-run single in the eighth inning. Both Phillies stars have struggled against Carpenter - with Howard going 2-for-9 and Pence 4-for-22, respectively. Chase Utley has been swinging a hot bat, collecting seven hits in his last three contests. He went 3-for-5 and scored three times on Saturday.

FINAL PITCH: The first six hitters in Philadelphia's lineup combined to go 13-for-25 with two homers and 11 RBIs.


Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 7)

THE STORY: The Milwaukee Brewers used a familiar formula to jump out in Game 1 - strong starting pitching and some big hits from the middle of the lineup. The Arizona Diamondbacks will be looking to send the series back to Phoenix even when they tap Daniel Hudson to start Game 2 at Miller Park on Sunday.

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks RH Daniel Hudson (16-12, 3.49 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Zack Greinke (16-6, 3.83 ERA).

Hudson lost his final three starts to close the regular season, posting a 4.26 ERA over that span. The 24-year old totaled just 50 walks in 222 innings but struggled with his command a bit down the stretch, issuing seven free passes in those last three turns. Hudson was knocked around for six runs - five earned - in four innings against the Brewers on July 4, including a grand slam by opposing pitcher Shaun Marcum.

Greinke getting the ball for Game 2 is a bit of a surprise, as Milwaukee had originally planned on using him in Arizona for Game 3. But the righthander, who will be working on three days’ rest, is 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA at home. The Brewers are 15-0 at Miller Park when Greinke starts. He dropped his lone start against the Diamondbacks on July 21, allowing two runs and five hits over seven innings at Chase Field.

ABOUT THE DIAMONDBACKS: The only time Arizona had a chance against Yovani Gallardo in Game 1 came in the first, when Willie Bloomquist was thrown out at the plate trying to score from second on a single to left. Aggressive base running was one of the staples of the Diamondbacks offense in 2011 and their overall advantage in team speed is something they will continue to try to exploit.

ABOUT THE BREWERS: Gallardo struck out nine and never gave Arizona a chance after that first inning. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder combined for five hits and three runs scored. Fielder put the game out of reach in the seventh when he belted a two-out, two-run homer off Ian Kennedy. Gallardo’s performance meant that Milwaukee did not have to deploy its full component of bullpen weapons, needing only three outs from closer John Axford.

FINAL PITCH: Since the wild card was introduced in the 1995 playoffs, the team that wins the first game of the division series is 47-17, including 29-3 in the National League.

[timbob]

Hank Goldberg

New England
Baltimore
Buffalo
Chicago
Miami

[timbob]

PSYCHIC
ranks picks 1-5

2 units Denver +12
3 units Miami +7
5 units Pittsburgh +4 (WISEGUY)

THE WIZARD
ranks picks 1-20

3 units Milwaukee -157
3 units St.Louis +164
3 units Buffalo -3
5 units Arizona +1
10 units Chicago -6
10 units Baltimore -3.5
15 units Skins-Rams under 43.5

[timbob]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

4* Best Bet = Chicago Bears
3* = N.Y. Jets
2* = Minnesota Vikings
2* = Philadelphia Eagles
2* = "over" Pats/Raiders

[timbob]

Chip Chirimbes

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
Play: Dallas Cowboys -1

Yes we are aware that the Lions are a team to be reckoned with this season but this is their second straight on the road and they won't get past the Cowboys who are getting better both physically and on the field.

[timbob]

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +164 over PHILADELPHIA

The first thing you’ll notice in this game is the low posted total of 7 and that strongly suggests this one could be decided by the pens. With that strong possibility hanging over this game, taking back +164 on the Cardinals is the prudent choice. The starters need no introductions. Cliff Lee v Chris Carpenter. Lee posted an elite 2.76 ERA on the year and his skills were as good or even better than ever. Just in case there was any question that Lee was in top form, he reached the 200-strikeout plateau for the first time in his career in his September 5th start. Let's just say he is on a roll. So is Carpenter. In fact, Carpenter posted a 2.15 ERA over his last six starts, covering 45 innings. He had a 53% groundball rate over that span while Lee had a 46% rate over that same span. Offensively, the Cardinals are as good or even better than the Phillies. They struck less than any team in the NL, they were also first in BA, slugging and OPS over the final six weeks of the season. The Phillies shaky bullpen is their only flaw and that makes this tag even more appealing. Of course the Phillies can win here but all the value in the world is on the red-hot Carpenter and the red-hot Cardinals offense. Play: St. Louis +1.64 (Risking 2 units).