10-3-11

[timbob]

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[Mr. IWS]

DCI

TAMPA BAY 26, Indianapolis 17

[Mr. IWS]

Dunkel

MONDAY, OCTOBER 3
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (9/29)

Game 237-238: Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 128.500; Tampa Bay 134.900
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 10; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+10); Under

[Mr. IWS]

Docs Sports

3* Indianapolis +10

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

This Week's Survivor pick:

TAMPA BAY over Indianapolis:

The best part about this one is that you get to use up a team that you may not get another chance to use the rest of the season while saving Green Bay and Philly for another time. The Bucs really don’t have a “gimme” game the rest of the year. They’ll take on a Colts team that is really in trouble. Indy is thin on talent and thick on injuries. Colts head coach Jim Caldwell said the team is preparing as if QB Curtis Painter will be the starting quarterback in Week 4. Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount are just warming up and with a rare Monday Night appearance, expect the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders. Most folks will go with Philly or Green Bay this week, so sit back, take the Bucs and hope one of those other two lose.

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Vic/ Philadelphia Daily News

Colts

[Mr. IWS]

Pitt viper

ROT# 237 – 8:35pm - Indianapolis Colts +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

Pointwise Phones

2 * Indianapolis

[Mr. IWS]

MNF - Colts at Buccaneers
By Kevin Rogers

The Week 4 card concludes at Raymond James Stadium as the Buccaneers go for their third straight victory. The winless Colts invade Tampa Bay on Monday night as Indianapolis tries to find some stability offensively by starting its second quarterback of the season.

Obviously the Colts' offense was set to struggle with Peyton Manning sidelined due to neck surgery, but nobody thought it would turn out like this. Indianapolis has scored 46 points in the first three games, while reaching the end zone just four times (including one defensive score). Kerry Collins led the Colts' attack in each of the three losses against Houston, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, as Indianapolis has been outgained by 148 yards or more twice. The veteran is not be available due to a concussion as former Purdue standout Curtis Painter will make his first career start on Monday night.

Painter faces a Tampa Bay defense that is slowly tightening things up after beating Atlanta last week, 16-13. The Bucs played with double-revenge in that contest after getting swept by the NFC South champions in 2010, while holding the ball for nearly 36 minutes to improve to 2-1. Josh Freeman tossed a pair of interceptions, but the tall Tampa Bay quarterback scampered in from one yard out to give the Bucs their only touchdown of the day.

Raheem Morris' offense has seen the end zone only twice at home this season, as Aqib Talib returned an interception for a touchdown in the opening week loss to Detroit. Both of Tampa Bay's victories have come by three points, including the remarkable comeback at Minnesota in Week 2 as the Bucs rallied from 20-0 down to stun the Vikings, 24-20. The Bucs haven't been a great home team in Morris' tenure, owning a 4-12-1 ATS mark at Raymond James Stadium, but a majority of those losses have come in the underdog role.

The Colts played their best game of the season against the Steelers last Sunday night, cashing as 10½-point home 'dogs in a 23-20 setback. Pittsburgh scored on two big plays on both sides of the ball, while any shot of a cover dashed away with Joseph Addai's game-tying touchdown with two minutes remaining. Indianapolis needs to sure up its defense after allowing Pittsburgh to torch the Colts for 408 yards, including 364 yards through the air from Ben Roethlisberger.

Tampa Bay is in the midst of a tight race in the NFC South, as the Bucs need to grab this victory on Monday before a crucial stretch against San Francisco, New Orleans, and Chicago prior to the bye week. With the Falcons, Eagles, and Bears all starting slow out of the gate, this is the time Tampa Bay can seem like a legit threat to make the NFC playoffs.

It seems like it's all but over for Jim Caldwell's club as the Texans look like the team to bat in the AFC South. The Jets, Steelers, Bills, and Raiders are all going to fight for Wild Card berths, placing the Colts near the back of the line for the playoffs following their slow start. Indianapolis enters dangerous waters by playing four of the next five games away from the RCA Dome, including road trips to Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Tennessee prior to Halloween.

The Bucs are playing under the Monday night lights at home for the first time since 2003 when they picked up a 19-13 win over the Giants. Tampa Bay is 0-3 SU/ATS on Monday night in three appearances over the last six seasons, while being in the spotlight for the first time since a 38-28 loss at Carolina in 2008.

The Colts aren't a Monday night magnet as much as people perceive, as Indianapolis has shown up in the primetime limelight once in each of the last five seasons. It's been a successful wager when backing the Colts in this spot, owning a 4-1 SU/ATS mark, including a 30-17 home triumph of the Texans as 5½-point favorites.

Tampa Bay is listed as 10-point home favorites, while the total is set at 40½. The game is set to kick off at 8:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on ESPN

[Mr. IWS]

MNF Betting News and Notes
Colts at Buccaneers: What Bettors Need to Know


Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 40.5)

THE STORY: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t had a home game on Monday Night Football in eight years. The then-reigning Super Bowl champions played in prime time twice that season, and one of the games was among the most memorable in franchise history – for all the wrong reasons. Tampa Bay gets a chance to avenge possibly the most stunning comeback in league annals when they host the winless Indianapolis Colts on Monday night. The good news for Tampa Bay this time around is the absence of four-time NFL MVP Peyton Manning, the primary reason why Indianapolis has a zero in the win column.

ABOUT THE COLTS (0-3): Indianapolis turned in an inspired defensive effort last week, twice erasing deficits before losing to Pittsburgh 23-20 on a last-second field goal. With Manning sidelined for perhaps the season with a neck injury, the Colts’ offense has shown little juice, ranking 14th in the AFC with 46 points. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis sparked a unit that harassed Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger into three turnovers. Curtis Painter may get the start at QB after Kerry Collins was knocked out of the game with concussion-like symptoms. One bright spot was RB Joseph Addai, who had 86 yards on 17 carries.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (2-1): Tampa Bay rebounded from a season-opening loss to join New Orleans atop the NFC South. The Buccaneers churned out a 16-13 victory over Atlanta last week in workmanlike fashion, holding the ball nearly 36 minutes while their defense registered four sacks and forced three turnovers. LeGarrette Blount had 81 yards on 24 carries, but the passing game continued to struggle, with QB Josh Freeman throwing for 180 yards and two interceptions. WR Mike Williams is averaging a mere 8.9 yards on 10 catches – down nearly six yards from last season. CB Ronde Barber had an interception and fumble recovery last week.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. In October 2003, the Colts shocked the Bucs with a 38-35 overtime victory, erasing a 35-14 lead with three touchdowns in the last four minutes of regulation. It was the first time in league history a team won after trailing by at least 21 points with four minutes to play.

2. Indianapolis has gone 9-1 in its last 10 games on MNF. Of course, that was with No. 18 under center.

3. With Manning sidelined, Barber is the league’s active leader with 186 consecutive games started. He’s the only player in NFL history with 40 interceptions and 25 sacks.

TRENDS:

The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with winning records and 7-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games. Of course, those all were with Peyton Manning behind center.

The Bucs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with losing records and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

On the bad side for Buc backers, the club is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games.

The over is 4-1-1 in Tampa Bay's last six home games and 16-7-1 in the club's last 24 games against teams with losing records.

LINE MOVEMENT

Not much to report here. Tampa Bay opened as a 10-point favorite and stayed there pretty much all week. The total has dropped from the opening number of 42. Most shops are now down to 40.5.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers 16, Colts 13. Tampa Bay will ride the running of Blount and its defense to an ugly victory while viewers are left to wonder if “Two and a Half Men” is the story of Indianapolis’ QB situation

[Mr. IWS]

BANG THE BOOK

Monday's Best NFL Bet

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10, 40.5)

We’ve got another great Monday Night Football betting battle on our hands this week down in the Sunshine State, where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will hope to leave the Indianapolis Colts high and dry once again.

There are at least a few redeeming features right now for the Colts. The first is that QB Peyton Manning still hasn’t been put on IR, and he is back on the field with the team. Sure, he’s only coaching the boys up on the field and not suiting it up with them, but anything that Manning can help with is a good thing. The second bit of good news is that QB Curtis Painter at least looks like he is remotely competent this year and might be a starter that can eke a few wins together here and there. Painter went 5-of-11 for 60 yards last week, but he made some decent plays when he was called upon, and the end result was a near miss against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The rest of this offense has just been putrid. TE Dallas Clark, who is annually a guy who catches 100 passes, only has 10 receptions in three games, and he has only found the end zone once, while RB Joseph Addai has just 189 yards. Indy only has two plays all season long of more than 20 yards, and the defense has just gotten a lot worse with the loss of both DB Melvin Bullitt and LB Gary Brackett, both of which were put on IR this week.

They fought, fought, and continued to fight against the Atlanta Falcons and Minnesota Vikings over the course of their last two weeks, and they got the job done in the end in close calls both times. The three games that this team has played have all been separated by a TD or fewer. It’s not bad that this team is 2-1 then, considering the fact that the offense ranks No. 22 overall and the defense ranks No. 24 overall in the league. This is just a club that has that knack for figuring out how to win games. We love QB Josh Freeman. His stats aren’t fantastic, nor will they probably ever be. However, he has a solid 67.9 completion percentage, 77 gritty rushing yards, three total TDs, all of which have come in the clutch, and some generally fantastic 4th quarter accomplishments. The rest of the team doesn’t need to be that special when you’ve got a man like that leading your ship.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: We’re just not all that sure that Tampa Bay is going to be winning this one by double digits. The Colts aren’t good… at all… but the Bucs aren’t a good enough team to beat anyone by double digits on a regular basis. Indy will drop to 0-4, and in typical Tampa Bay fashion, it will figure out how to win this one by right around a TD.

PICK: Indianapolis Colts +10

[Mr. IWS]

Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Tampa -135 over Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Colts + Bucs UNDER 41

[Mr. IWS]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Lions (+2) Sunday.

Monday it's the Yankees. The deficit is 2,674 sirignanos.

[Mr. IWS]

Hondo

Hondo struck out with the Yankees and Gang Green yesterday but scored with the Lions (in heroic fashion), Packers and baseball Cardinals to reduce the debt load to 1,785 selmons.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch will try to generate some bucks with the Bucs over the Indy Nags -- 20 units on Tampa Bay.