Tweet
INDIAN COWBOY
6* MLB: Tampa Bay & Texas OVER
6* MLB: Tampa Bay & Texas OVER
-
Sports Wagers MLB
Texas +125 over TAMPA BAY
David Price was the forgotten starting pitcher on that historic night in baseball last Wednesday. Had Yanks manager Joe Girardi not gotten cute with his staff, Price and the Rays may not be here. In any case, David Price has not been right for some time. His groundball/fly-ball ratio has been trending the wrong way for six weeks. His walks are also showing a serious increase. His month-by month walk totals are as follows: 9, 4, 9, 11, 14 and 16 in September. On Sept 7 he faced the Rangers and allowed two runs in six innings but don’t buy that. He was in trouble all night and got extremely lucky when hard hit balls were right at people. In his most important game of the year in his last start, the Yanks whacked him hard and he was gone after four frames and five runs. Price had a tough year at the Trop too, where he went 4-9 with a 3.71 ERA. Colby Lewis will not dazzle anyone. What he will do is consistently throw strikes and give the Rangers a chance to win. He usually gives the Rangers 6+ innings of quality frames. Lewis also posted a 3.43 ERA on the road and overall his BAA against was just .244 but on the road it was .237. Price has a reputation of being one of the best starters in the game but his current form screams stay away. He’s fragile right now and he’s facing a club that can smell blood like nobody else. Play: Texas +125 (Risking 2 units).
Updated Series Price:
DETROIT –102 over N.Y. Yankees
You can lay –1.25 with Justin Verlander tonight but the better play is Detroit to win the series because they’re grossly undervalued. Should Verlander win tonight, the Tigers will face two Yankee misfits over the next two games including A.J. Burnett tomorrow. Let’s forget about tonight for a minute. Verlander has the edge over C.C and the Tigers have momentum. After A.J. was A.J. again in 2011, and after his manager announced he was going with a three-man rotation against Detroit, the storm clouds rolled in Friday night and everything changed. "His month of September was not bad," Girardi said. That was the best the manager could do. New York’s weakness is just as glaring as at it was last year when the Rangers did them in. Outsider of Sabathia, they have no reliable starters and that puts added pressure on the offense. Joe Girardi’s move of calling upon Luis Ayala to pitch the ninth yesterday sums it all up. Yanks were only down four and Ayala is a mop-up man. Girardi threw in the towel and all these “small” things snowball into something much bigger. The Yanks need starting pitching and they need it badly. You can put together the best offense money can buy but in October, without quality starters, it’s too hard to advance. Freud said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”. Someone should point that out to Brian Cashman. Yanks are going home again this year but not to play more baseball. Play: Detroit –102 to win series (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).Comment
-
WEST CAPPER
(directly from the west capper email)
MLB YTD: +73.1 units
- 1* Rangers/Rays OVER 8 runs (-110)
David Price really struggled in his last start against the Yankees, allowing 5 runs in 4 innings. As a talent evaluator of baseball players, it is obvious Price is struggling with the command of his curveball right now. Earlier in the year Price was able to throw his fastball by hitters because he was locating it, but he has lost feel for his curveball and has lost his best off-speed pitch. That is absolutely why you’ve seen Price’s groundball/flyball ratio trending the wrong way and why his walks are showing an increase in the past few months. Price is 0-5 against the Rangers in his career, and he wasn’t overly impressive at home this year (like many of the Rays pitchers have been in years past). The one positive side note Price has going tonight is Jaso will be behind the plate and not Kelly Shoppach. With Jaso behind the plate calling Price’s pitches, Price haf a 4.81 k/bb ratio as opposed to 2.61 with Shoppach.
For the Rangers, Colby Lewis will consistently throw strikes and keep the Rangers in most games with 5-7 solid innings of work. He was better on the road (3.43 ERA vs 5.54 home ERA) this year, but he really struggled in his last 11 starts, posting a 4.91 ERA in August and 5.65 ERA in September.
The total is set at 7.5 at most shops (some already have 8), and I think there is value in both numbers. Lewis and Price faced off earlier this year, with Lewis going eight shutout innings in line to a 3-0 victory against Price. I think that result is keeping this number a little down, when with the recent struggles of both pitchers, the line should be more around 8.5 to 9 runs.
The ball seems to be flying better at the Trop this year than years past, and with 9 runs and 14 runs being scored so far in this series, I like this game small to go over. If you can get 7.5 runs then go 2** units, but for record keeping purposes, we will post this as a 1* unit over 8 runs.
- 2** Tigers (-125)
- 1* Tigers series price (-110)
We recommended the Tigers series price for 2 units at +120 before the series started, so if you’re currently on that bet, you might want to consider adding a unit to it at the current -110 value. If you’re not on the original and your book offers updated series prices, jump on the Tigers for 1-2 units.
In terms of the series, I think Verlander beats CC tonight and the Tigers take a 2-1 lead. Outside of CC, the Yankees don’t have any reliable starters and would be forced to win two straight against a hot Tigers team, and they would have to do it without their ace CC Sabathia. So the series value is GREAT right now.
For tonight, you’re getting the best pitcher on the planet at a very good price. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and ARod and Montero are banged up. Verlander has the best fastball and best curveball in the game and he is one of the few pitchers than can get hitters out with four pitches. Verlander will be making his first start on short rest, so his pitch count won’t be of concern but his daily routine will be. Today would typically be a bullpen day for Verlander’s off-day routine, but I don’t think it’ll bother him too much.
For CC, he is also one of the best in the business but if he allows 3-4 runs tonight it’ll probably be over for the Yankees.
The biggest mismatch in this game is the head-to-head matchups between the teams. Verlander owns the Yankees, with only Jeter having quality numbers against him. Texieria is 3-for-22 against him, A-Rod is hitting .230 against him, and Swisher and Cano are right around the Mendoza line. On the other hand, Miguel Cabrera absolutely owns CC Sabathia (hitting above .500 against him) and Maggilo Ordonez has had great success against him as well.
Give me the best pitcher in the game at home at a great price. Everyone is showing the stat that Verlander has yet to go 6 innings in any of his postseason starts, but he is COMPLETELY A 100% different pitcher than when he last threw in the playoffs. Take the Tigers (-125) tonight for 2** units.Comment
-
Jeff Benton
Monday's Action
20 Dime winner # 6 of 8 is a selectaon on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the home favaorite against the Indianapolis Colts. As I release this winner to you, the Bucs are the 10-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.
10 Dime bonus selection is the Colts-Bucs to go over the total this Monday night at Ray James Stadium. At the time I relcse this winner to you, the total on the game is a solid 40 1/2-points both here in Vegas and offshoreComment
Comment