10-6-11

[Mr. IWS]

Benjamin lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs

Ben lee won (5 in a row) on Wednesday with the Diamondbacks -$110/Brewers.

For Thursday "Mr Chalk" likes the Yankees -$150/Tigers.

"Mr Chalk" is 5-1 + $330 for the 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs.

[Mr. IWS]

WEST CAPPER
(directly from the West Capper email)

MLB YTD: +75.0 units

• 2** Tigers/Yankees under 9.5 runs (-110)...if stays at 9 runs, then 1*

Game 5’s are typically bullpen games, which would give the edge to the Yankees tonight. Doug Fister is 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 75 innings since being traded from the Mariners, and Ivan Nova is 9-0 with a 3.15 ERA in 80 innings since being recalled from Triple-AAA. Both of these pitchers are unflappable and should throw well tonight in this big situation.

Since this will be a bullpen game, I’ll focus mostly on the pens. Benoit and Valverde are one of the best 1-2 combos in all of baseball, so I think Jim Leyland would like to go Fister and then Phil Coke for a lefty matchup before turning the game over to Benoit and Valverde in the 6th or 7th. If the Tigers can get the lead to Benoit and Valverde then you have to like their chances of winning game 5. The Yankees fans should be all over Valverde from the time he walks down to the bullpen for his comments, so that should be interesting.

The Yankees bullpen is setup even better than the Tigers tonight. Nova has really been the best pitcher in this entire series (with his dynamic performance in the suspended game) and he’s not afraid of this big situation. The kid their call “Super Nova” has great stuff, but the X factor is Mariano Rivera. He has thrown 14 pitches in 10 days, so you can definitely count on the all-time saves leader to throw 2-3 innings tonight. A lot of people are making a big deal that CC Sabathia is available in the bullpen tonight, but I don’t see him giving much value to the Yankees unless it’s in an extra innings situation or if he comes in to face 1-2 Tiger hitters (Tigers catcher Avila for the lefty-lefty matchup or to make Martinez hit right-handed).

When you look at this series, everything changed in game 4 when Granderson made the diving catch in the 1st. If he doesn’t come up with that huge play, Don Kelly probably had an inside-the-park grand slam and Burnett would’ve been a mess for the Yankees. If the Yankees win this series, that one single play will be looked at as the key play that turned the series.”

In a situation like tonight with all hands on deck and good bullpens, I definitely like the under. Add to the fact that it's the Tigers-Yankees and their star filled lineups, the public is heavily on the Yankees and over. The casual fan looks at this game and thinks because it's not Sabathia vs Verlander, that these two relative no-name pitchers will get hit around. In fact, both Fister and Nova have been two of hottest pitchers in baseball the past ten weeks, and with the bullpens rested and ready to go, I see this being a low scoring game. I like this play at under 9 runs, but am waiting to see if the line will go to 9.5 runs before I take it. Vegas' biggest exposure is on the Yankees and over, so I think waiting closer to gametime to take the Tigers and the under is the best bet.

So far in this series there has been 12, 8, 9, and 11 runs scored, with the over 3-1 in this series. The public seems to think that the powerful Yankees hitters are starting to come out of their slump, so everyone is taking the over. Fister and Nova are a combined 24-33 O/U this year, so they favor the under.

Even though everyone is expecting the Yankees to win tonight, I still hold true to my belief that the Tigers will win the series and feel good about our 2** series futures bet on the Tigers. Take the under 9.5 runs for 2 units, and if the line stays at 9, then take it for 1*. If your not on our futures bet then you might consider a small 1* play on the Tigers as we get closer to gametime, but the play tonight is on the under.

[Mr. IWS]

SEAN MURPHY

6* PHILADELPHIA FLYERS Under 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Ncoast

Top Marq--M Tenn St
Reg Marq--Over Cal

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

25* California +24
10* Detroit Tigers +150

[Mr. IWS]

RANDY BRUCE

5 dimes Yankees -1.5 RL, +125

[Mr. IWS]

Denver Money | NHL Money Line

dime bet 3 MON (+100) Bookmaker.com vs 4 TOR