Tweet
Sharp Move
UNDER 7.5 - Arizona / Milwaukee
UNDER 7.5 - Arizona / Milwaukee
-
WEST CAPPER
(directly from the west capper email)
MLB YTD: +78.4 UNITS
Everying today and tomorrow in baseball are small plays, 1* unit. We've had great success the past few months in baseball and don't want to get out of control just because of the playoff environment. It's still important to find value in games. GL!
- Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have the biggest home field advantage of any team in the playoffs, going an MLB best 59-24 at home. They are so dynamic at home and are far more aggressive in the strike zone at home. Their ace, Gallardo, is on the mound tonight with Greinke available in the pen. Gallardo has pitched well at home all season long, posting a 10-2 record with a 3.00 ERA compared to a 4.05 ERA on the road. He’s 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA against the DBacks, so he will certainly have confidence going into tonight. He dominated in game one using a heavy sinker, and gives the Brewers an outstanding chance against the right-handed heavy Dbacks.
Ian Kennedy is a viable Cy Young Candidate, winning 21 games this season and going 12-1 with a 2.11 ERA after the All-Star Break. Arizona is attempting to become the 1st team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in a best of five series in the world card era, and Kennedy gives them a great chance. He really kept the Diamondbacks in the game in game one until a Prince Fielder homerun gave the Brewers the lead for good.
We have the Brewers at -170 for 2** units on a futures bet, so we will be passing on the side tonight. I do like the under, so jump on the under 7.5 runs early before it moves to 7. We are going to stay small, so take it for 1* unit.
- St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies
In a postseason that has largely failed in the aspect of starting pitching, tonight will definitely buck that trend. Most of the elite starting pitchers in the postseason (Verlander, Sabathia, Wilson, Kennedy, Halladay, Lee, etc) have been mediocre up to this point, but that will change tonight.
Throw out what Carpenter did in game two, he was throwing on 3-days rest for the first time in his career. Consider this…outside of that game, Carpenter has allowed only one earned run and one walk to the Phillies in 15 innings.
The one chink in Halladay’s armor (if there is one), is lefties hit a respectable .273 against him this year. That puts Berkman in a favorable position, as he hit .307 and 27 home runs this year against righties. Halladay did give up 3 runs in the 1st last start and then went on to throw 7 perfect innings of no-hit ball.
The Phillies offense is getting great production out of Rollins and Utley, but Howard, Ruiz, and Polanco have really struggled. Howard is 0-for-8 with 5 K’s, and only one ball has left the infield. There is a lot of pressure on the Phillies tonight to win, and their offense has certainly been known to struggle for extended periods of time (2010 NLCS against the Giants). The Phillies scored the fewest runs of all the playoff teams this year, so I look for them to struggle against Carpenter.
Nobody is better than Halladay in game five, so I think South Street will be buzzing after a Phillies win tonight. The juice is currently -170, which is too much in my opinion. Halladay has only had two games this year under -165, but I can’t lay that much juice against a true ace like Carpenter. I do like the under 7 runs, with Lee in the bullpen backing up Halladay. We recommend taking the under 7 runs for 1* unit, and jump on this one early because it could go to 6.5 which would cancel any play. Also consider playing the under 3.5 runs for the 1st 5 innings, as I think both pitchers come out with their A game and we could see a 1-0 game entering the 6th.
- DETROIT TIGERS @ TEXAS RANGERS
Getting Justin Verlander at -115 is just a steal. Yes Texas is a great home team and rested, but Verlander is Verlander and the Tigers love left handed pitching. Verlander and CJ Wilson only threw against the other teams once this year, but I like the Tigers to steal game one. Like I said before, I don’t think Verlander will lose this postseason.
CJ Wilson is a great pitcher in his own right, and is well rested for this game, but he struggled at home this season, posting a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average over .025 higher than on the road. He was very good in the second half (2.56 ERA post all-star break), but he’s going against the most dominant pitcher in the big leagues.
I would normally make this a larger play because the Verlander value is incredible, but Delmon Young being out hurts, and Peralta and Victor Martinez have struggled historically against Wilson. I do think Verlander will shut down Hamilton and the Rangers explosive bats, but one thing that worries me is that while Verlander dominates just about everyone, he is slightly better against lefties and the Rangers are very right handed heavy.
One knock on Verlander is he has to control his emotions when he pitches. He just got finished throwing in the biggest game of his life at home against the Yankees, so I think the environment in Arlington won’t cause him to overthrow like he did last game. While the 100+ mph radar gun readings were impressive to watch in the 6th and 7th inning, Verlander is really at his best when his fastball is down in the zone and 95-98 mph.
We will be taking 1* unit on the Tigers (-115) and 1* unit on the under 8 runs.Comment
-
DOC
3-unit Play Take St. Louis Cardinals/Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7 (8:35pm ET) It's decisive Game 5 between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. The Cardinals have been fighting for their respective lives for over a month, beating out the Atlanta Braves for the wild card on the last day of the regular season after being behind by 9 games in early September. The Phillies, on the other hand, had their division wrapped up for several weeks before the end of the season and coasted into the playoffs without any pressure. However, none of that matters anymore, as both teams are on an even playing field fighting for the right to advance to the National League Championship Series in this one.
With the intensity level as high as it can go tonight, you'll be sure to see how over anxious hitters and conservative decision-making. That plays right into the hands of today's starting pitchers - Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay. There's no reason to pore over the resumes of Mr. Carpenter and Mr. Halladay. Bottom line, they're about as good as it gets in the National League and they've been here in the spotlight before. While it's highly unlikely, if one of those aces does happen to falter, you can bet that there will be help on the way before it gets too ugly. All hands will be on deck and you're only going to see the best relief pitchers that these teams have to offer. You saw it in the Tigers vs. Yankees game yesterday - almost of the starting pitchers will be available as well as will all of the top relievers. Both managers will also ensure that they are getting good matchups on the mound versus the hitters in the box, which will make it even tougher to score runs in this contest. That's why the Under is certainly where the value lies today.
Best of Luck - Doc's SportsComment
-
Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. #990. Take the Philadelphia Phillies Run-Line +130 over St. Louis Cardinals (Friday @ 8:35pm est).
The Phillies could very well win this game going away. They are undoubtedly aware of what happened to the Yankees won their respective division and got the boot at the hands of Detroit last night. The Phillies are taking no chances and send their ace to the mound here in Halladay and combine that with Carpenter being a bit shaky lately and what you have is the Phillies who will likely play in an electric atmosphere and take their frustration out at home. Halladay has given up just 7 hits over his last 2 starts and he's been very difficult to get on base and more importantly, he has put together 9 of 10 quality starts. The Phillies are 18-3 when Halladay starts with at least 5 days of rest and are 5-1 as a home favorite by this margin. As per the run-line, I think the value is sound as I just don't see the Phillies winning this game in a tight-contest but rather, I think they will win this game likely going away.Comment
-
Benjamin lee Eckstein "Mr Chalk" 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs
Ben lee lost on Thursday with the Yankees -$150/Tigers.
For Friday "Mr Chalk" likes two the Brewers -145/Diamondbacks and the Phillies -$180/Cardnials.
"Mr Chalk" is 5-2 + $180 for the 2011 MLB AL/NL Playoffs.Comment
-
Comment
Comment