10-14-11

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Safestwagering

Hawaii Warriors at San Jose State Spartons

I've been researching these teams way too long. Initially it seems like the Spartans are the play.
Big money is starting to move in their direction, and The Warriors are typically a poor road team.
Hawaii was crushed by UNLV, who is arguably one of the worst major programs in the
country this year.
But...... The Spartans are hurting at running back, and on defense, while some
of Hawaii's questionabe players should be on the field tonight.
We need to address The Warriors game against the "Runnin' Rebels" A duplication of that
performance will result in a loss for Hawaii. From what I've been told, they were more interested in
Vegas night life than they should have been, and also had 2 weeks of long traveling.
Last week on the road, they were very impressive against a pretty good Louisiana Tech team.
In addition, San Jose State's special teams have not played well, and their coach is
too laid back for me.


Take The Hawaii Warriors -5.5

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Gridiron Winners

Friday's Top Rated 10 Unit:
Hawaii Warriors -5

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Saturday ... Take Navy +3.5 over Rutgers

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CAPPERS ACCESS

San Jose st
Stl Cardinals

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Ocal Sports

4* Hawaii -5

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Handicappster

5* Diamond Pick St. Louis Cardinals ML -124

5* Diamond Pick OVER 7.5

NHL

5* Diamond Pick OVER 5.5 - San Jose Sharks / Anaheim Ducks

NCAAF

5* Diamond Pick Hawaii -5.5

5* Diamond Pick OVER 56.5 - Hawaii / San Jose State

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Doc Sports

2* Play Take San Jose Sharks (-120) over Anaheim Ducks (10:05pm ET)

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SB Professor

Original NCAAF Pick F
San Jose St. +6* (there are some 6s and some 5.5s out there, try and get the +6)

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Pointwise phones:

2* hawaii

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WEST CAPPER

MLB YTD: +92.5 UNITS

POSTSEASON SO FAR: 16-4 (+26.15 UNITS)
SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Tigers to win series vs Yankees +120 (WINNER, +4.40 UNITS)
SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Brewers to win series vs DBacks -170 (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
SEPTEMBER 30: 2** Rays/Rangers under 8.5 runs (LOSS, -2.2 UNITS)
OCTOBER 3: 1* Rays/Rangers over 8 runs (LOSS, -1.1 UNITS)
OCTOBER 3: 2** Tigers -125 (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 4: 1* Rays -105 (LOSS, -1.05 UNITS)
OCTOBER 4: 2** Rangers/Rays under 8.5 runs (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 6: 2** Tigers/Yankees under 9.5 runs (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 7: 1* Brewers/Dbacks under 7.5 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 7: 1* Cardinals/Phillies under 7 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 10: 3*** Rangers -140 (WINNER, +3.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 10: 1* Rangers/Tigers over 9 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 11: 1* Tigers -140 (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 11: 2** Tigers/Rangers under 9 runs (WINNER, +2.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 12: 3*** Rangers -120 (WINNER, +3.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 12: 2** Cardinals/Brewers over 7 runs (PUSH)
OCTOBER 13: 3*** Tigers -150 (WINNER, +3.00 UNITS)
OCTOBER 13: 1* Rangers/Tigers under 7 runs (LOSS, -1.10 UNITS)
OCTOBER 13: 1* Brewers +120 (WINNER, +1.20 UNITS)
OCTOBER 13: 1* Brewers/Cardinals under 8.5 runs (WINNER, +1.00 UNITS)
BREWERS @ CARDINALS

Yesterday’s win was huge for the Brewers, because it guarantees the series will go back to Milwaukee, where the Brewers had the best home record in baseball this season. Tonight’s game plays a large role in determining who wins the series, as the winner of game 5 in a 2-2 series has won the series 10 out of 13 times.

Zack Greinke takes the hill for the Brewers, and the key for him tonight is to get through the first 3-4 innings and build some confidence (which he is known to lack sometimes). If he struggles early, this could be a short night for the Brewers. Greinke has some of the best pure stuff in all of baseball. He struck out 9+ hitters in a dozen games this season, tied for most in baseball with Cliff Lee and Clayton Kershaw. Outside of Justin Verlander, Greinke has the best pure stuff of any pitcher left in the postseason.

While he had a 2.59 ERA after the all-star break (he started slow after missing much of April with an injury), Greinke has really struggled on the road. Greinke went 5-6 on the road with a 4.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (compared to 11-0, 3.13 ERA, 1.13 WHIP at home). He also struck out less hitters and walked more hitters per nine innings on the road. However, two of Greinke’s road wins came in his only two starts in St. Louis this season, both quality starts. While Greinke has struggled mightily on the road, he is capable of throwing seven shutout innings and handing it off to K-Rod and Axford to close it out. Despite facing Greinke a lot this season, Holliday is the only regular with outstanding numbers, as he is 5-for-12 with 2 HR against the right hander.

Jamie Garcia also had much better home splits than on the road, as he was 9-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. Opponents hit almost a full .100 less against him at home. Last game he was hit hard by the Brewers, and he really struggled to throw effectively inside in that game. None of the Cardinals starters have gone 7 innings yet this postseason, and many of the Brewers have below average numbers against Garcia (Braun is 5-for-22, 1 HR; Fielder is 6-for-21, 0 HR; Harriston is 2-for-11). Corey Hart should be back in the lineup tonight and he is hitting .400 against Garcia in his career.

The Brewers have been very conscience to pitch Greinke at home, yet his ERA is over 8.00 this postseason. With Lance Berkman expected back in the lineup tonight, this is as close of a matchup as it gets this postseason. With Greinke, it’s all about being comfortable on the mound, and the good news for Brewers fans is he has pitched well at Busch Stadium in his career, only giving up 4 runs in 15 innings.

I also think the warning issued by the umpires in game one really effected Greinke and Garcia negatively, because essentially neither pitcher were able to aggressively pitch inside the rest of the game. That changes tonight, and both pitchers need to establish the inside of the zone to be successful.

A lot has been made of the postseason struggles for both of these pitchers and how the public saw these pitchers throw in game one and get hit around to a 9-6 final. Because of Greinke’s struggles on the road and the Brewers woeful road record this season, I like the Cardinals to sneak this one out and go to Milwaukee with a 3-2 lead. Very small plays here, because this is as close as it gets. I was hoping to see a total more around 8 runs, but I see 7.5 listed at most shops. Take the Cardinals (-120) for 1* unit and the under 7.5 runs for 1* unit. Please keep in mind both of these plays are as small as they get, as both came VERY CLOSE to being no action and passing on them.

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JACK HOWARD


10 Dimes St. Louis/Milwaukee Over 7.5

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Sports Handicapper King

College football

3* Hawaii -5.5

Nhl hockey

3* Anaheim Ducks