10-16-11

[timbob]

Accuwager

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Prediction: New York Jets -7

The Miami Dolphins (0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) are in big trouble NFL gamblers so much trouble, that this pick is as easy as pie. Not only has Miami not won a single game this season, but they've looked increasingly inept in not reaching the 20-point plateau in each of their last three games. The winless Fins had a bye in week 5 following their uninspiring 26-16 Week 4 loss to San Diego as a 6.5-point road underdog in Week 4. Miami will face a New York Jets (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, 4-1 O/U) team that has lost two straight games and will be in all-out 'desperation mode' in this AFC East divisional showdown. The Jets fell to New England 30-12 as a 7.5-point road underdog in Week 5 and now they're going to take out all of their frustration on Miami's mostly clueless backup quarterback Matt Moore. New York is 9-3 ATS in its last dozen games against a team with a losing record while Miami has gone 0-6-1 ATS in its L/7 games overall. The Dolphins have won four of the last five games against the Jets, but there's no way it happening in this contest. Keep it simple and back the New York Jets to win and cash in!


Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots -7

The Dallas Cowboys (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) suffered the biggest comeback loss in franchise history in their last contest. Their prize? A date against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) in what now looks like a fascinating Week 6 showdown. Dallas collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Detroit Lions in Week 4, getting shut out in the final period while giving up 17 fourth quarter points to the explosive Lions in its heartbreaking 34-30 home loss as a 2-point favorite. New England man-handled the New York Jets in their 30-21 Week 5 win as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Patriots look like the solid pick in this contest and I believe they'll narrowly cash in as Tom Brady coolly makes the Boys defense pay with his incomparable accuracy. New England is averaging almost nine points per game more than the 'Boys (33.0 ppg to 24.8 ppg) while also allowing almost two fewer points per game defensively. Dallas has gone 6-0 ATS in their last half-dozen games as an underdog, but New England has gone 4-1 ATS in their L/5 games as a home favorite and a bankroll-boosting 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an SU win.The Patriots have won three straight over Dallas while covering the spread each time out while the favorite has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four meeting. NFL gamblers can expect this game to play out in the Pats favor!


New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Bucs
Prediction: New Orleans Saints -4.5

Is it possible that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U) could really show up this week and bounce back from their shocking 48-3 road loss to San Francisco as a 2.5-point underdog last week? Yes, they very well could. However, I just can't bring myself to advise any NFL gambler to back the Bucs, seeing as how they have the tough task of stopping Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS, 4-1 O/U) this week. The Saints squeaked past gifted rookie quarterback Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers 30-27 in Week 5 despite failing to cash in as a 6.5-point road favorite. Still, I like the Saints to get the road win and narrow ATS payday in this contest, mostly because the Buccaneers can barely score the ball with their pedestrian offense. While both teams are allowing n identical 25.0 points per game defensively, the Saints are averaging 14 points per game more than Tampa Bay – and that should be enough to make a difference in this NFC South divisional matchup. The Road team in this divisional series is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings while Tampa Bay has gone 5-17 ATS mark in their L/22 home games. The Saints are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against the Buccaneers and are the easy pick to win this game.


Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens -6.5

After seeing the Baltimore Ravens (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 4-0 O/U) pound the hell out of the New York Jets in their impressive 34-17 Week 4 win as a 5.5-point home favorite – and the inconsistent Houston Texans (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U) fall to the Raiders 25-20 as a 4.5-point home favorite this past Sunday, I'm thinking the Texans are going down again in this intriguing matchup. Ironically, while the Texans have been known more for their explosive offense – and pitiful defense – the last few years, it is Baltimore that is averaging more points per game this season (29.8 ppg to 25.4 ppg) while also allowing nearly five fewer points per contest defensively. Not only are the Ravens better on both sides of the ball this season, but they're also undefeated in two home games. Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in their L/10 games and a blistering 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, 1-5 ATS mark in their last half-dozen games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog no matter where they play. I smell a huge day looming for Ray Rice and company while Baltimore's voracious defense keeps Matt Schaub and company largely in check. Back the Ravens minus the points.


Cleveland Browns vs. Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Oakland Raiders -6

The Oakland Raiders (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U) got a very nice win in Week 5, not long after beloved owner Al Davis passed away. The Raiders held Houston's explosive offense to just six second half points while putting up 10 points of their own in the final quarter to win 25-20 and cash in as a 4.5-point road underdog. Oakland will face a Cleveland Browns (2-2 SU, 1-2-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U) team that got a timely bye in Week 5 after falling to Tennessee 31-13 as a 1-point home favorite in Week 4. I'm going to advise NFL gamblers everywhere to back the Raiders to narrowly cover the spread in this contest, mostly because of their overpowering rushing attack. Yes, I know the Browns are 7-0 ATS in its L/7 road games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points, Oakland has put together an impressive 5-1 ATS mark in their last half-dozen games while also going 7-3 ATS in their L/10 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. Cleveland is 1-6-1 ATS in its L/8 games and 1-5 ATS in their L/6 against a team with a winning record, but that's not what really leads me to believe Oakland is going to win and cash in. With Oakland ranking second in rushing by averaging a whopping 161.8 rushing yards per game, the Browns have struggled mightily to stop the run, ranking 25th in run defense, allowing 124.5 rushing yards per contest. The Browns have won four of the last five meetings against Oakland, but not this time NFL bettors. Play the Raiders to win anther for Al Davis.

[timbob]

Teddy Covers

10 INDY
10 HOUSTON
10 PITT UNDER

[timbob]

Platinum Plays
Premier Pick (Top Play)
Indy
Baltimore

500K Play
Atlanta

400K Play
Chicago
Chic OVER

Regular Plays
Rams
Phil
Det
Buff
Oak
Oak OVER
TB

[timbob]

Totals 4 U

Total of Year ( Whatever)
Pitt UNDER

Minn UNDER
Phil UNDER
Atl UNDER
Indy UNDER
Buff OVER
Balt OVER
Oak UNDER
Dall OVER
TB UNDER

[timbob]

Dwayne Bryant

3* Philly
3* NY Giants
2* Cleveland

[timbob]

ACE ACE

411 New Orleans
411 Buffalo

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Vagas Vic/Philly Daily News

Ravens Best Bet (3-2)
Eagles
Panthers
Cowboys
Buccaneers
Bears
Jets
Rams
Jaguars
49ers
Colts
Giants
Browns

Overall for year 34-40 .459 pct.

[timbob]

trushel
20* houston
10* giants

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Chase Diamond (ksp)

50 Dimes St. Louis Rams +14.5

30 Dimes Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

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Al DeMarco

15 DIME RELEASE

Detroit Lions

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A Bettor World
San Francisco +4
New England -6

4-Team Teaser:
Baltimore -1
Cincinnati -0.5
Oakland -0.5
New Orleans Even

[timbob]

ROBERT FERRRINGO


3-Unit Play. Take #221 New Orleans (-4) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

Tampa Bay's loss last week at San Francisco was an eye-opener. I was very uncertain about this Bucs team coming into the year. I felt that their performance last year was basically a fluke against a feeble schedule. But their young talent is unmistakable and they are a team playing in a sound system. However, this looks like it is going to be a regression year and that my first instincts were correct. This team tries to coast too much, but they don't have the talent to be one of those teams. LaGarrette Blount looks out of shape and now he won't be on the field this weekend because of his knee. That is going to put even more pressure on Josh Freeman, who is enduring a sophomore slump as a starter this year. This team is 20th in offense and 23rd in defense and they really haven't shown up to play much this year. They were manhandled by Detroit and San Francisco, really the only two ?good? teams that they have played. They were fortunate to beat a struggling Atlanta team in a game that the Bucs were way up for and they were to beat Minnesota after falling behind 17-0 at halftime. Oh, yeah, and then there's the fact that New Orleans is excellent. The road team is 13-3 ATS in this series and the Saints have won the last two meetings in Tampa by the scores of 31-6 and 38-7. Tampa has beaten New Orleans in back-to-back years, but both of those wins came in Week 17 when the Saints were just going through the motions. New Orleans is just one yard away from possibly being 5-0 right now and they are legit. I don't know what the Bucs are, but I haven't been impressed.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #206 Washington (+1.5) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

I don't know how Philadelphia is favored here. That isn't to say that they won't win this game. But there are just too many things pointing to the Redskins here that this play is worth a ticket just for the value. The Eagles are awful. They are just a bad football team. They have four or five streaky, athletic players, but there just isn't a lot of talent on this roster. They can't stop anyone and I like a home dog that brings a much, much better defense to the game. Then there is the fact that the Redskins have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Mike Shanahan has always been awesome coming off a bye, and he is 12-5 ATS in his career when his teams have an extra week of rest. This team is confident - especially after taking over sole possession of first place in the division last week while being idle - and they should be very focused. Philadelphia absolutely humiliated the Redskins last year in primetime, beating them down 59-28. I don't think that Shanahan - who is as spiteful as they come - has forgotten about that one. I absolutely loathe the fact that Rex Grossman is quarterbacking and that Kyle Shanahan is calling this game. Those two guys are pathetic. But that duo is really the only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger on a 6-Unit Play in this game. It is that good of a setup when you consider the defense, rushing, overall matchups, extra prep time, revenge, and a solid public fade here.

2-Unit Play. Take #211 Indianapolis (+7) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

There is absolutely no way that I trust the Bengals to lay these points. I know that Indianapolis has been a bit of a train wreck and that they are 0-5 right now. But they have played better than their record indicates. If it weren't for a superhuman effort from Dwayne Bowe they would have earned their first win last week against Kansas City. They also played Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay tough, and I felt like this team should have beaten Cleveland in Week 2. So they aren't as bad as their record indicates. The Bengals, on the other hand, I do not believe are as good as their record would make you believe. Buffalo and Jacksonville both outplayed them in the last two weeks but Cincy managed to find ways to fluke out wins there. The Bengals have played a cupcake schedule and they lost outright the last time that they lined up as a favorite. In fact, the Bengals are a money-burning 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite and they are 2-12 ATS the last 14 times that they have laid points at home. I think that the Cover-2 will fluster Andy Dalton a bit and I think that Curtis Painter might actually be the better quarterback in this one. Indy might not get its first win of the season but I think that they will hang around in this one before finding a way to lose by a field goal.

2-Unit Play. Take #214 N.Y. Giants (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

I went against Buffalo last week with the wretched Eagles and the Bills did everything they could in the second half to blow that game. Look, I just don't think Buffalo is that good. They have been opportunistic to this point and are +11 in turnovers. But once those dry up this team is going to be exposed. They have been on a good rush but they are bound to blow it. After all, they are the Bills and we have seen it before. The public is all over Buffalo in this game, betting them at a 70 percent clip. These are usually the times that the Giants come to play: when expectations are low. The Giants will be motivated in this game because they don't want to fall further off the pace in the NFC East. And on top of that they don't want to lose ground in prestige to a fellow in-state team. Buffalo didn't look good in their last road game, at Cincinnati, and I think that this will be a tougher matchup for them here. Eli and the Giants should be able to do just enough to hold off the hungry Bills here and I think that the number tells the tale.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #216 Baltimore (-7.5) over Houston (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

By now everyone should know how overrated I think that Houston is. This team was anointed as the AFC South favorites without ever actually accomplishing anything. And as we have seen time and time again over the last few years their hot starts - usually against inferior competition - is just a mirage. Baltimore is rested and ready to go and this team has looked dominating on the defensive side of the ball. They should be able to swallow up a Houston offense that will again be without Andre Johnson. The Texans are just 4-7 SU the last few years without Johnson and he is critical to what they do. I think that Matt Schaub is going to be a turnover machine in this one and that the Ravens are going to put pressure on right from the jump. The Ravens had extra time to prepare and they are used to attacking the Pittsburgh 3-4 defense so they will know where the holes are in the Texans' version. Houston is without its best defensive player as well, as Mario Williams is done for the year. Houston is coming off a disappointing home loss where they got pushed around by the Raiders and next week they have a key divisional game against Tennessee. This week they are walking into a buzz saw.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #223 Minnesota (+3) over Chicago (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1-Unit Play. Take #208 Detroit (-4) over San Francisco (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)



2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #216 Baltimore (-0.5) over Houston (4 p.m.) AND Take #220 New England (Pk) over Dallas (4 p.m.)

This Week's Totals
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 44.5 Cleveland at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.0 San Francisco at Detroit (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 50.0 Buffalo at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 50.5 Carolina at Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 16)



MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #225 Miami (+7) over N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 43.0 Miami at N.Y. Jets (8:30 p.m., Monday, Oct. 17)

I was going to make this a Game of the Year play but the number has just dropped too much over the last 48 hours for the play to hold its value. I do like the Dolphins in this game though and I think that this could be their first win of the season. Just like with the Eagles, people just aren't willing to accept that the Jets aren't that good. They have completely gotten away from their identity as a run-the-ball-and-play-great-defense team. Their defense has actually fallen apart and since they can't run the ball they are putting the offense in the hands of Mark Sanchez, who is pathetic. Miami lost its starting quarterback, Chad Henne, but I don't think that is a bad thing. Henne was missing way too many open throws and I think that Matt Moore will be alright for this team. He is a guy with some experience and prior to last year he was 6-2 in his first eight career starts with the Panthers. The Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare for this game and they are desperate to go out and get that first win of the year. This has been their best role under Tony Sparano - they are 12-4 ATS on the road and they are 10-3 as a road dog - and they have really had the upper hand in this series lately, winning four of five meetings both SU and ATS. The Jets are in a bit of a letdown spot after losing to the Patriots and there are growing issues in this locker room. This team is not as good as they think they are and I expect Miami to be in this one to the end.

That's it for this week. Good luck.

[timbob]

Allen Eastman

5-Unit Play. Take #213 Buffalo (+3) over N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
This play is from my 411 System.

The Bills shouldn't be getting points here! I think that Buffalo is the better team in this game and I am looking for an outright winner. The Giants have been outplayed over the last two weeks by two bad teams, Arizona and Seattle. They were fortunate that a bad call helped them beat the Cardinals and then they lost by 11 points as a double-digit favorite last week to the Seahawks and their backup quarterback. The Bills have been the best team in the league at forcing turnovers and this week they are playing against a Giants team that has a tendency to turn the ball over a lot. The Bills have won and covered all three of their games as an underdog this year. The Giants are just 4-10 ATS as a home favorite and right now I don't think that they are playing very good football. I think that the Bills will keep the momentum going.

4-Unit Play. Take #209 Carolina (+4) over Atlanta (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)

I think that the Panthers have a good chance of winning this game outright. They have played Chicago, New Orleans and Green Bay very tough this year. They have lost those three games by just an average of five points per game and those are some of the best teams in the conference. We bet against Atlanta last week and they didn't come to play against the Packers. I think that there will be a letdown from that game and I think that they are going to take the Panthers lightly. But Cam Newton has this offense playing well and Carolina has covered four straight spreads. I think the Panthers are playing with more confidence right now and just like the Buffalo game I think that the better team is getting the points.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 Cincinnati (-7) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)

The Bengals are starting to build up a strong resume this year. They are 3-2 and this is a game that they need to win if they are going to compete with the Steelers and the Ravens. Cincinnati has one of the best defenses in the league and with Cedric Benson and A.J. Green they have two big-time playmakers that can take the pressure off their rookie quarterback. The Colts are 0-5 and they are already talking about whether or not they would draft Andrew Luck with the top pick. This team already knows that it is not getting to the playoffs and right now Indy is one of the worst teams in the league. Curtis Painter has not played well and is completing less than 49 percent of his passes. Now he is on the road and I don't think that the results will be any better. Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall and should be good for a blowout winner for me here.

3-Unit Play. Take #206 Washington (+1) over Philadelphia (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)

Once again the wrong team is favored. The public loves this Eagles team and they refuse to believe that the Dream Team can be as bad as their record. But this Eagles team is bad and they have not played well at all this year. The Redskins are coming off a bye and they have had two weeks to prepare for this division rival. The Eagles are on the road for the third time in four weeks and there has already been finger-pointing going on in the locker room and in the media. Their season is falling apart and I don't think that they have done anything to deserve to be a favorite in this situation against a 3-1 Washington team. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS as a favorite and they are 4-10-1 ATS as a road favorite of less than a field goal. The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and I think Washington gets the cash.

2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 40.5 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)

The Steelers defense should dominate this game. Pittsburgh will stack the line and focus on Maurice Jones-Drew and they will try to make the Jaguars passing offense beat them. That is not going to work out well for Jacksonville in this game. The Jags are only averaging 12 points per game and they are one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh should dominate them with one of the best defenses in the game. This matchup reminds me of the Jaguars-Jets game in Week 2. Jacksonville lost that game 32-3 and was never a threat. I expect the same thing here. Before last week's 38 points the Steelers hadn't topped 24 points yet this year. I don't think that they will beat this number by themselves and I don't see the Jaguars managing more than 6-9 points. Take 'under' here.

5-Unit Play. Take #221 New Orleans (-4) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
This play is from my 411 System and it is my Game of the Week.

New Orleans is the best team in the AFC South and I think that they are going to prove it again this week. Tampa Bay lost 48-3 last week in San Francisco and I think that is the type of loss that really shakes a team's confidence. They do not look like a team that has the same edge that they did last year when they were an up-and-coming team that was a heavy underdog each week. I don't think that they are playing well with expectations. The Saints won 31-6 in this matchup last year and they are 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings. The road team is 13-3 ATS in this series. Drew Brees is completing almost 70 percent of his passes this year and he is playing at a very high level. I think that he will pick apart a Tampa defense that couldn't stop Alex Smith and Tampa Bay last week. Take the Saints here and look for a double-digit winner for our side!

2.5-Unit Play. Take #219 Dallas (+7) over New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 17)
The Cowboys were able to get healthy over their bye week and I think that they will come out sharp in this game. The New England defense is still one of the worst in the league and I think that they will have their hands full with Dallas now that Miles Austin is back. The Cowboys have played nine straight games that have been decided by three points or less and I think that they will stay within the points here in another close game. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS as an underdog and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. They will do enough here to make this number stick.

[timbob]

Vegas Sports Informer

NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #202 Take Green Bay -14 ½ over St. Louis (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 16)

Green Bay is the best team in the league hands down and Sunday afternoon the Rams will have no chance on winning this game in Green Bay. The Rams offense has been awful and in the last 4 games the Rams haven't been able to score more than 16 points. The Rams will struggle on offense against the Packers 'D' and the Packers offense will have no problem scoring against the Rams defense. Packers win big and Green Bay wins 42-10. St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and the Packers are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite.

2 Unit Play. #203 Take Over 40 Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 16)

Pittsburgh broke out last week on offense and this week look for the same results. Jacksonville defense is allowing 23ppg and the Steelers offense can easily score over this number at home Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh is 7-1 O/U in their last 8 games against AFC teams and the last 5 meetings between these two teams 4 of them have gone over the total.

3 Unit Play. #214 Take New York Giants -3 over Buffalo (1:00p.m., Sunday, Oct 16)

NY Giants lost last week to the Seattle Seahawks but the Giants didn't lose on their defense play they lost on costly turnovers late in the game. Giants win this game on defense and if Eli Manning doesn't throw picks we could see a double-digit victory for the G-Men. Buffalo is 5-11 ATS following a SU win and the Giants are 22-8-1 ATS in the month October.

5 Unit Play. #221 Take New Orleans -4 ½ over Tampa Bay (4:15p.m., Sunday, Oct 16)

(Game of the Week) The 49ers easily marched down the field against the Bucs defense last week so what is going to happen when Drew Brees has the ball. If the Bucs secondary can stop Alex Smith (49ers QB) what will happen if Drew Brees and the Saints offense start clicking on the road. What will happen! The Saints blow out the Bucs at home and the Saints gained a road victory. The last 2 meetings in Tampa the Saints easily won and outscored the Bucs 69-13 so a 3-peat will happen in Tampa and the Saints will have no trouble marching down the field. Tampa Bay is 3-13 ATS as a home underdog and the road team in this series is 13-3 ATS. Saints win big and Saints win by double-digits.

[timbob]

Jason Sharpe

Sunday October 16th 2011:

5 Unit Play Take #214 New York Giants -3 over Buffalo (1:00pm est):

Up/down theory in full effect here in this one. It's been a very profitable angle to take a team coming off an upset win the week before when they are going up against a team who lost last week as a favorite in the NFL. We have that exact same situation playing out here in this game.

The Buffalo Bills have been a nice story so far but I am not convinced this team is anything more than an average football team right now. The Bills had every break go their way last week in beating the Philadelphia Eagles. In fact the Bills were manhandled at the line of scrimmage, outgained by over 150 yards in the contest. On the year Buffalo allows 42 yards more per game than their opponents on the season. Clearly this is not a 4-1 team even though their record shows that.

New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin was not happy after last weeks huge upset loss to the lowly Seattle Seahawks in a game the Giants had no business losing. Coughlin's teams have gone 6-2-1 ATS the last nine times following a double digit home loss. A lot of people down on this team after the defeat last week but keep in mind this was a team that would have been 4-1 with a win last week, having won back to back road games the two weeks before.

It's always smart to look for teams coming in off opposite type results the previous week. If things played out as expected last weekend this line would be a few points higher than it is here. This is good value here. Take the Giants in a big bounce back spot in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #208 Detroit -4 over San Francisco (1:00pm est):

Coming back again with the hottest team in pro football. If you can find a streak before others and ride it out you can make a lot of money and we have been doing that with these Lions now for quite some time. The oddsmakers continue to undervalue this team week in and week out and do so again here.

Many see this game as a big letdown spot for the Lions here but I see the opposite and more a letdown for the 49ers. San Francisco comes in off a huge blowout victory last weekend and along the way I feel lost a few points of value in this one with their 45 point victory. The 49ers offense averages only 300 yards per game and 100 yards less passing per contest than the Lions. Lots of credit has gone to the SF defense this year but the Lions have had a better year defensively than the Niners, allowing less yards per game and per play this season.

The Detroit Lions are among the elite teams in the NFL right now but they are not being priced like one again here. You can on and on about the positive trends with the Lions these days but the one that seems to stick out the most is the 10-1 ATS record the Lions have had the last eleven times they have faced a team with a winning record.

We seen this past Monday night how big home field can be in this stadium as that crowd is hungry to keep the good times going in Detroit. The defensive pass rush is feeding off the energy in the building and now with a healthy Nick Fairly joining this group, this team's strongest unit has got even stronger. Detroit is for real and laying just four points at home here is a joke. Basically the betting market is saying only one point separates these two teams on a neutral field, really? What in the world am I missing here? Nothing, as the Lions should win going away in this one. Play Detroit here.

3 Unit Take #219 Dallas +7 over New England +7 (4:15pm est):

The Dallas Cowboys have had two weeks to stew over their big loss to the Detroit Lions, a game they let slip through their fingers. This is a good football team who is starting to get healthy following their bye week here. In fact the Cowboys are just a few plays from being a 4-0 team right now and the talk of the NFL. Instead they fly under the radar coming into this one here versus New England. Dallas is 4-0 their last four games ATS as a road underdog and 6-0 ATS their last six games as a underdog overall.

The New England Patriots are good but not great this year. Their defense is as bad as it gets in the NFL. This isn't a new problem either for the Pats. In fact an already bad defense looks even worse this year than last season. The Patriots comes into this one a week after playing their top rivals, the New York Jets so a letdown is very possible here.

Having two weeks to prepare for an opponent can be huge in the NFL, especially for a team coming off a bad loss like the Cowboys are. I expect this thing to go down to the wire. Play Dallas here.

3 Unit Play Take #223 Minnesota +3 over Chicago (8:25pm est):

My numbers show a Minnesota team being the better of these two football teams and with that we have what I call "the wrong team favored" here in this game.

The Minnesota Vikings finally got it going last week and grabbed their first win of the season. This is a veteran group who knows the seriousness of being 1-4 right now coming into this game. Now they catch a team coming off a short week after playing a road game on Monday night. Big time revenge spot here also for the Vikings who lost both times last year to the Bears, the last one in embarrassing fashion by a 40-14 score.

The Chicago Bears have been awful this season, outgained in every game thus far. They have failed to cover the spread in any of their last four contests and come in with one of the worst defenses in football right now, allowing well over 400 yards per game.

This is a much healthier Minnesota Vikings football team than the Bears and one that I feel is better overall. Take the points here and the Vikings in this one. I have another big weekend of baseball on tap, as I look to continue on with my awesome MLB season. I have now closed in on the $8,000 win mark overall for the year, a season high for me and my clients, as the biggest players playing $1,000 a unit are now up close to $80,000 this year. The MLB playoffs have been nothing but pure profit in just two short weeks as I am ahead almost 25 units in this short time, going 7-2 overall in my nine playoff selections and 7-1 with my side plays for the post-season. Still lots of time left to join in on all the winning. I am locked and loaded and really feel confident on how well I am seeing things unfold right now on the diamond.