10-16-11

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Prediction Machine

Pauls picks NFL

Sunday
NO-4.5 60.8%
Buff +3.5 60.2%
Oak -6.5 60.2%

Monday
NYJ-7 59.3%

Other Picks

Det-4 60.1%
Car+4 58.0%
DAL+7 57.5%

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SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +6½ over OAKLAND

RIP Al Davis. That was a fine tribute the Raiders provided last week when winning in an unlikely, almost supernatural way. Without sounding insensitive, the aftermath of Davis’ passing may not be as triumphant. There will be plenty of distractions now with the Raiders returning home to deal with media and other things regarding his death and that won’t bode well for a team that has defensive liabilities. The Browns have had a couple weeks to prepare for this trip. Colt McCoy has averaged 43 pass attempts per game in 2011. He’s also thrown at least one touchdown in every game this year. With McCoy tossing against a secondary that is giving up 318 yards per game and multiple passing scores in four straight, the Browns figure to compete throughout. Play: Cleveland +6½ +101 (Risking 2 units).

ATLANTA -4 over Carolina

The public has short memories. Oddsmakers recognize that. The result is an erroneous number being posted for this contest. After a couple of crummy seasons, the Panthers have become league darlings with the addition of Cam Newton as their franchise quarterback. No doubt, they’ve become fun and exciting to watch. Conversely, the Falcons are now perceived as underachievers, understandably. But let’s not write off Atlanta just yet. They are 21-5 under Ryan in this stadium, they're well coached and they have superior players overall. The Falcons also played three of their first four on the road before returning home to play the powerful Packers last week. It’s time to bear down for these Dirty Birds and what we have here is an undervalued squad at home against a team that’s overvalued and coming off an intense and near upset at home against the Saints. Classic case of “buy low”. Smaller price also reduces Carolina’s backdoor chances. Play: Atlanta –4 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Jacksonville +13 over PITTSBURGH

We found a nice spot last week with these Steelers being undervalued against a mediocre Titans team. Now the opposite has taken place. How can Pittsburgh be a 3-pt favorite over Tennessee and one week later, a 12-point favorite over a slightly lesser Jacksonville squad? A severe overreaction to Pittsburgh's victory last week has inflated this number immensely. The Steelers remain a team with many issues, not the least of which is run defense. If Jacksonville has strength, it would be their ground game with star RB Maurice Jones-Drew leading the way. Conservative affair stays close. Play: Jacksonville +13 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Minnesota +122 over CHICAGO

In this league, without protection, you cannot win and the Bears cannot protect Jay Cutler. Poor Jay Cutler. Those hits keep adding up like constant jabs in a boxing match and now Cutler is running for his life while playing in fear. Chicago is also coming off a Monday night loss in Detroit and has one less day to prepare and recover. That can’t be good against a Minnesota club coming off its first win of the year. One win does wonders to a team psyche and let’s not ignore the fact that the Vikings could be 5-0 instead of 1-4. They had two touchdown leads in its first three games and lost them all. Those two TD leads came against three potential playoff teams in San Diego, Tampa Bay and Detroit. They also lost in K.C. by four before destroying the Cardinals last week. Adrian Peterson keeps racking up the yards and while Donovan McNab isn’t lighting it up, at least he’s not turning it over. The Bears have played a whole bunch of tough games and that takes a toll. The Vikes defense is much better than their getting credit far and you can expect that defense, led by the blood thirsty Jared Allen, to really turn the heat up on Cutler. Play: Minnesota +122 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. GIANTS –3 –123 over Buffalo

For now, this one is a no bet because of the –125 juice we have to lay on top of the –3. However, come Sunday morning, we might add this to our slate if the juice on the –3 comes down once the squares get a hold of the line. Beneath Buffalo’s shocking start is a 30th ranked defense that will eventually get exposed and this is a perfect situation for that to happen. The Giants are being largely discounted after clunker at home to lowly Seachikens but with New York’s passing game re-establishing itself, the Bills’ bubble finally bursts. A lot of folks had the Eagles beating the Bills last week and ripped their tickets. Many others had the G-Men to beat Seattle in their Survivor pools and they, too, ripped their tickets. Once again we have a classic case of “buy low” and “sell high” and we’re going to keep a close eye on this line. Don’t get sucked into playing the Bills. Again, for now it’s a no bet but there’s a good chance that’ll change come Sunday. Play: N.Y. Giants –3 (No bets).

The rest with no wagers

WASHINGTON +2 over Philadelphia SportsInteraction

Many believe that the Eagles can’t keep losing like this. Truth is they can. Just like Philadelphia should not have been favored in Buffalo last week, these Pigeons should not be chalk here. The Redskins play sound defense and have had an extra week to prepare for this reeling foe. Rap with us now: The O-line retreatin. Vick takes a beatin. Reid keeps a eatin. Fans disbelievin. Turnovers thievin. Hype was deceivin. Ain’t no retrievin that Dream Team Season. Play: Washington +2 (No bets).

St. Louis +15½ over GREEN BAY SportsInteraction

The Packers keep covering and the books keep paying out money to Green Bay backers. With the point-spread being the great equalizer and oddsmakers knowing the sentiment here, they have no choice but to inflate number in an attempt to draw Rams money. That offers value on the mutt and that’s sufficient enough for our endorsement. Play: St. Louis +14½ (No bets).

DETROIT –4 over San Francisco Pinnacle

Who didn’t know these two would be 9-1 combined? San Francisco likely the bigger surprise but this will be its biggest task yet. Niners’ heading out to third road trip in four weeks and with their secondary vulnerable to potent passing attacks, the soaring, roaring Lions get the call. Had Detroit not been coming off big Monday night win, this one would’ve made our top plays, as San Fran is a sell high team right now after putting a thorough beating on the Bucs last week as a small favorite. Play: Detroit –4 (No bets).

Indianapolis +7 over CINCINNATI Pinnacle

We’re as impressed with the young Bengals as any but come on now, this is a bit much. Cincinnati has been money as an underdog but spotting a full touchdown (2-12 as chalk past 14) with neophyte host over a Colts team that has been competitive in three straight hardly seems wise. Play: Indianapolis +7 (No bets).

BALTIMORE –7½ over Houston Pinnacle

Some teams can deal with injuries by working harder to overcome the adversity. The Texans are not one of those teams. Houston’s mental makeup is marginal at the best of times and now that the injury bug has infiltrated its locker room, we can’t see the Texans keeping pace with elite teams such as this one. Play: Baltimore –7½ (No bets).

Dallas +7 over NEW ENGLAND Pinnacle

Forgive and forget. That’s what Cowboys supporters will have to do in order to get past the collapse against the Lions two weeks ago. Even though Dallas facing top-talented Patriots, one has to be enthused about taking back a touchdown with a Dallas team that has played in 10 straight decided by four or less. Pats are good but they’re also largely unbalanced with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Last team to have the ball might win this one. Play: Dallas +7 (No bets)

TAMPA BAY +5 over New Orleans Pinnacle

We’re going to give the Bucs a mulligan for last week’s stinker in San Francisco. Our hopes are that this young team was looking ahead to this one and that they’ll provide a much better showing of themselves here. Saints being asked to spot points in 3rd consecutive road game in big division match and this one reeks of being the trap of the day. Be very careful about unloading on Saints. Play: Tampa Bay +5 (No bets).

This week’s Survivor Pick:

BALTIMORE:

The obvious pick this week is the Packers or Steelers and it would certainly be a shocker if either loses. The problem with playing the same team(s) as everyone else is that one of two things will happen. You’ll either go down with everyone else or you’ll split the pool 200 ways. Our strategy is to avoid that and step “outside the box”. So, this week’s pick is a healthy, talented and well-rested Ravens club against a banged up and poor traveling Texans. Maybe the Pack or the Steelers take their opponents for granted this week and show up in body only. If you must, we would play Packers instead of Steelers.

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Jeff Scott Sports

5 UNIT PLAY

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

New Orleans -4.5 over TAMPA BAY: Coming into the year I expected the Bucs to be a bit better and possibly challenge for the South title, behind a solid QB in Josh Freeman, but they have really been inconsitent this year. Sure they are 3-2 on the year, but they have been been out gained by 42 ypg and outscored by 8 ppg on the year. In the last 4 weeks they barley beat Minnesota, Atlanta and a BAD Indianapolis club and then were crushed by 45 points by a San Francisco team that just doen't blow out teams. Josh Freman had a great year last year with 25 TD's and only 4 INT's, but this year he has guided his team to just 20th in passing, while throwing for just 3 TD's and 6 INT's. A far cry from last years numbers. Today they take on a New Orleans defense that is Middle of the pack in most defensive categories, but they do know how to pressure the QB and are 7th in the league ate grabbing 2.8 sacks per game. That pressure should rattle Freeman enough for him to make some costly mistakes. The Tampa defense has been bad this year as they are 23rd overall (378 ypg), including 20th vs the pass (254 ypg), plus they have allowed 25 ppg. Now they must contend with the 2nd ranked passing offense of the Saints tht comes in averaging 336 ypg through the air and 7.7 ypa, which is 7th best. The Buc just don't have the defense to stop Drew Brees, while their offense is too eratic to think they can put enough points on the board to keep this one close. I Say New Orleans by 10+ here. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play ON any team that forced 1 or less turnovers in 5 consecutive games vs an opponent that commited at least 3 turnovers in their last game. This system is 36-11 since 1983.

4 UNIT PLAY

NY GIANTS -3 over Buffalo: The Bills continue to impress after last weeks big win over Philadelphia has them at 4-1 on the year and atop the AFC East standings, but this is the week this team will come back down to earth a bit. Yes the Bills are 4-1 on the year, but after their opening destruction of KC they have been outgained by 90 ypg, so this is a team that has been playing more with luck than talent of late. The Bills offense has been strong this year, ranking 11th (379 ypg) overall and 13th in passing (241 ypg), but their defense has been really bad as they rank 30th overall (422 ypg) and 26th vs the pass (283 ypg) and they will have all sorts of problems vs Eli Manning and company, who mlook to make amends for last weeks 5 TO disater vs the Seahawks. The Giant offense comes in ranked 9th in passing at 275 ypg and even though Eli has 5 INT's 3 of them did come in last week's loss and i really expect a big bounceback game from him here. The Giant defense has not been all that great this year, due mostly to injuries, but I expect a good showing from them today vs a Buffalo offense that is due for a fall. The Giants are 19-7 ATS off a game where 60+ points were scored, while the Bills are 14-34 ATS after coviering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, since 1992. Look for the Bills luck to run out here as the Giants bounceback with a solid win by at least a TD.

POWER SYSTEM PLAY

Cleveland/ Oakland Over 44.5: The OU is 4-1 when the Browns are off a BYE and the OU is 7-1 when the Raiders are home off a non-divisional win. The Browns will not be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut, but they have had the extra week to prepare for this one and they will be taking on a pathetic Oakland defense. The Raiders are 32nd in total defense (414 ypg), 29th in passing defense (300 ypg) and 28th in points allowed (26.6 ppg). Even the Cleveland offense should be good for about 21 vs this bad defense. The Cleveland defense does check in at 9th in the league, allowing 320 ypg, but they have yet to meet an offense this potent yet. So far this year the best offense the browns faced was Miami and they are ranked 16th in total offense. Today they will face the #9 offense of the Raiders and the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the league and that's not good news for a Cleveland defense that allows 124.5 ypg on the ground (25th). The Cleveland offense has had some time to prepare here so expect them to have a very good showing vs this defense, while the Raiders offense will have another great game. I look for around 50 points in this one. POWER SYSTEM FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Over when a non-division is playing off a SU home fav loss vs an opponent theat won SU & ATS the previous week. This system has gone 18-1 OU the last 4 years.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Dallas/ New England Over 55: Let's start off by saying that the system in the Browns/ Raiders game can be used for this game as well. This game will be fun to watch. Dallas brings the 3rd ranked passing offense into this one as they have put up 331 ypg through the air so far and they are 6th overall at 418 ypg. Dallas has had extra time to prepare and they will be taking on the worst ranked defense in the league. The Pats allow 433 ypg and 326 ypg through the air. The Dallas offense should have a field day vs them. On the other side we have a Pats offense that is first overall (495 ypg), 1st in passing (367 ypg) and 2nd in scoring (33 ppg). All those number are great, but what is most impreessive is that they are 6th in rushing offense,. When playing this Pats offense you don't kjnow what phase of it to try and stop as they are very balanced. The Dallas defense has been very good this year as they are 4th overall and 1st vs the run, but it doesn't matter what defense is out there, the Ptriots will score against them. Both of these offenses are very good and will have no problems in putting up enough points for an easy over here. I see around 60 points in this one. KEY TRENDS--- The OU is 14-2 in Dallas' last 16 on fieldturf, while the OU is 17-4 in the Pats last 21 as a favorite.

San Francisco +4 over DETROIT: Let's talk about emotion for a momemnt. Last week the Lions played and won their first MNF home ga,me in a long time and there was plenty of emotion that they used for that game. This team has been playing with a ton of empotion this year and they are off to a 5-0 start, but I see them coming back down to earth a bit in this one. The Niners are a very improved team and Jim Harbaugh has them playing well, as evidenced by last weeks blowout loss of Tampa Bay. The Niners defense has been very, ranking 13th overall and 2nd in points allowed and they should be able to contain this Detroit offense, that was slowed down a bit last week by a good Chicago defense. detroit is a good team this year, therre is no doubting that, but they are still a very young team and after playing such an emotional game last week, one can only expect them to have a letdown. I'll call for an outright upset by the Niners here.

2 UNIT PLAY

Indianapolis +7 over CINCINNATI: The Bengals are a very improved team this year and they do have the top rated defense in the league, but they are note ready to be a 7 point favorite over anyone. The Colts are getting closer and closer to getting that first win and the more work and practice Painter gets the better he will be. Let's also note that the Bungals are 0-9 ATS as home favroites the last 3 years and 24-45 ATS in October since 1992. Colts should keep this one close.

1 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia -1 over WASHINGTON: The Eagles have Burned me the last few weeks, but I will give them one more chance. The Eagles have one of the best offenses in the league as they check in 3rd n total offense, 1st in rushing and 11th in scoring. Despite the 1-4 start this team has still outgained their foes by a whopping 107 ypg, but it has been TO's that have and stupid penalties that have done them in this year. I feel that they will get it corrected today vs a Washington team that has overachieved this year due to playing a weak schedule. This play should be higher, but the sloppy play of the Eagles of late will not allow me to make this a top play.

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Gold Medal Club NFL Sunday

1)Jacksonville 50*
2)St.Louis 25*
3)Philadelphia 25*
4)Atlanta 25*
5)Chicago 10*

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Sixth Sense

Phila -2.5
Dall +6.5
Minn +2.5
Miami +7

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball Sunday

Play St. Louis (+120) over Milwaukee (Top MLB Play)
Starts at 4:00 PM EST

Shaun Marcum has lost 10 of the last 14 home games when the line posted is between -100 to -150 and he has also lost 11 of the last 17 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Shaun Marcum has lost 2 consecutive playoff games and he is 0-2 in his last three starts with an ERA of 12.82.


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NHL Hockey Sunday

Play Anaheim (-145) over St. Louis (Top NHL Play)

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday

4* Best Bet = DALLAS

3* = "UNDER" on Bengals/Colts

2* = New Orleans

2* = "under" on Packers/Rams

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Baseball Crusher
Play of the Day:

Milwaukee -126 over St. Louis

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Joey Cassano

NYG -3
Cleveland +6.5
Dallas +7

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PhD Picks 10/16

Green Bay -14
Pittsburgh -13
Philadelphia -3
Buffalo +3
San Francisco +4
Carolina +3.5
New England -6
New Orleans -7
Minnesota +1
Green Bay O47
Baltimore O45
Oakland U44.5

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GREAT LAKES SPORTS

NFL
GOM: 5* (205) Philadelphia Eagles 1:00est
4* (208) Detroit Lions 1:00est
3* (210) Atlanta Falcons 1:00est

Major League Baseball
4* (924) Milwaukee Brewers (with Marcum) 8:05est

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Football Crusher
Play of the Day:

Oakland -6 over Cleveland

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Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

St Louis Blues + Anaheim Ducks

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Sportbook Investing
Play of the Day:

Oakland -6 over Cleveland

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Dom Chambers
Today's winners ...

My 100 Dime play is on the underdag Indianapolis Colts over the Cincinnati Bengals. As I look at the sports books in Las Vegas at 1 a.m., the Bengals are a 7-point favoarite. My 40 Dime play is on the Baltimore Ravens over the Houston Texans. The sports bocks show the Ravens a 7-point favorite.