10-16-11

[timbob]

Jeff Benton
Sunday's Action
60 Dime Rivalry Lock this Sunday will be on the visitang Carolina Panthers to combaine with the home team Atlanta Falcons to go OVER the total. As I releace this winner to you, the posted total for the game is 50 1/2-points both here in Vegas and offshore.

[timbob]

Sixth Sense

A real nice bounce back week last week, going 6-3 and so close to a 8-1 or 9-0 day. The 6-3 was good for a +8.10% day. The record now stands at 22-14 61.1% +19.80% for the year.

Also, I will come back on Saturday at 5 pm central with a totals update.

All plays are delivered via email and will be sent by 10 p.m. central on Friday evenings.

BEST BETS

YTD 22-14 +19.80%

3% PHILADELPHIA -2.5
3% DALLAS +6.5
3% MINNESOTA +2.5

League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.

Average Points Scored 23.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.1
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 6.5
Yard Per Play (YPPL) 5.6

GREEN BAY -14 St Louis 48

St. Louis qualifies in a 26-4-1 situation that plays on winless teams coming off their bye week. Numbers favor GB by 16 and predict about 48 points. Packers lost at home to the Rams back in 2006 by three but were home dogs in that game. Against the recent version of the Rams, they have played twice in St Louis as of late (2007 and 2009) and won 33-14 and 36-17. GB is now 11-3 ATS at home as a favorite of more than seven points in non-division games. In each of those games they covered the spread, they scored at least 30 points. In the games they did not cover the spread, they failed to score more than 24 points. They actually lost all three of those games SU. Rams are now 3-8 ATS the last 11 games as road dogs of more than seven points against teams above .500. They allowed at least 31 points in seven of those eight losses. The Rams also failed to score more than 13 points in seven of those eight losses. Given these two teams history, unless they can keep GB under 30 points, they don't stand much of a chance to cover this game. And, knowing you can almost just write down GB for a bare minimum of 27-30 points at home each game, that makes it difficult to cover this number. Also, the Rams haven't scored more than 16 points in a game this year. GREEN BAY 30 ST LOUIS 13

PITTSBURGH -12 Jacksonville 40.5

Jacksonville qualifies in a contrary situation that is 149-87-5. That situation played on Seattle last week. Numbers favor Pittsburgh by eight and predict about 36 points. These two teams don't play against each other every year and this isn't the same version of Jacksonville from years past but Pittsburgh has always struggled against Jacksonville. You have to go back 10 years to find the last time they defeated Jacksonville by more than five points, when they won by 13 as a 6.5 point favorite back in 2001. That includes four home games and four road games. Jacksonville has lost four straight games and was blown out in their only road game against good competition, when they lost 32-3 at the Jets. The situations favor Jacksonville in this game as does the value. Pittsburgh is still banged up but they have been pretty good the last 1+ years laying seven or more points at home as they are now 5-0 ATS. PITTSBURGH 24 JACKSONVILLE 14


Philadelphia -2.5 WASHINGTON 47

Philadelphia qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 429-279-18. They also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. Numbers favor Washington by five and predict about 46 points. Philly has won four of the last five, and eight of the last ten games played here between these two, including winning 59-28 last year. Philadelphia has now allowed 24 or more points in 11 of their last 13 road games, including 31 or more in eight of those thirteen road games. Ironically, they are 8-5 SU in those same 13 road games because they have scored a ton of points. In all but one of those 13 road games (week one this year at the Rams), they have totaled at least 48 points. Washington has been very competitive at home over their last ten games. In nine of those ten games, they have won or lost by four or less points. Their one loss by more than four points was to these Eagles last year 59-28 on Monday night. Eagles simply need to stop turning the ball over. If they can do that, they have more than enough offense to win and cover this game. The Redskins offense is not that explosive so Philly has an excellent chance to cover this game if they can avoid the mistakes. PHILADELPHIA 34 WASHINGTON 24


DETROIT -4 San Francisco 46.5

SF qualifies in a negative situation, which is 81-42-7 and plays against them here. SF qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 538-394-23 and 296-204-23. Numbers favor Detroit by four and predict about 46 points. Detroit lost by 14 and 18 in 2009 and 2008 but those games were in SF. Detroit has now scored 20 or more points in eight straight home games and haven't allowed more than 13 points in their last four home games. With the situations going both ways in this game and the no value on either side I will call for a four point Detroit win. DETROIT 24 SAN FRANCISCO 20


ATLANTA -4 Carolina 50.5

Atlanta qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. Numbers actually favor Carolina by one point and predict about 48 points. After losing at home to Carolina three years in a row, they have defeated Carolina at home, under Mike Smith, by 17, 8 and 21 points the last three years. Carolina has now allowed the following in their last seven road games: 28, 34, 31, 27, 31, 24 and 31 points. However, Atlanta has allowed 31 and 25 points at home this year to above average offenses. Value favors Carolina and until Atlanta proves otherwise, I will lean against them. Although the numbers suggest a slightly lower scoring game than the total, based on what both these teams are allowing on defense, I will shade to the over slightly. Atlanta will be without Julio Jones in this game. ATLANTA 28 CAROLINA 27


CINCINNATI -7 Indianapolis 41

Indianapolis qualifies in a winless situation, which is 104-50-7. Cincinnati qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 116-40-3 and plays against them here. That same situation played against TB a few weeks ago when they played Indy as well. Cincinnati qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 538-394-23. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 11.5 points and predict about 42 points. Indy has been somewhat competitive this year, especially after their initial road game at Houston to begin the season. They have lost by eight, three, seven and four points. The Bengal's have never been good favorites as they are now just 6-16 ATS as home favorites of four or more points the last ten years. Once again the situations favor Indy but they are still banged up, especially in the secondary making it impossible for me to take them, not to mention the value lies squarely with Cincinnati. CINCINNATI 26 INDIANAPOLIS 16


NY GIANTS -3.5 Buffalo 50

Buffalo qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 296-204-23 as long as they are getting at least three points. Numbers make this game a pick 'em and predict about 53 points. The value and situation favor Buffalo. Buffalo took advantage of five Philadelphia turnovers last week, despite being out gained. Meanwhile, the Giants turned the ball over five times themselves. That usually means good things for teams like the Giants, especially when a team like Buffalo with a below average defense goes on the road. I'll call for a three point game and let the line determine which way I lean. NY GIANTS 30 BUFFALO 27


BALTIMORE -8.5 Houston 44.5

Houston qualifies in my turnover table situation, which is 429-279-18. Numbers favor Baltimore by about eight points and predict about 44 points. These teams haven't met much of late. Baltimore jumped out to a huge lead last year in Houston on a Monday night, only to see Houston come back to tie the game and force OT. Baltimore won 34-28 on an interception return for a touchdown in OT. Houston's defense is improved this year but is now without Mario Williams for the season. They have allowed 13, 40, 24, 31, 34, 30, 31, 30, 24 and 27 points in their last 10 road games. Baltimore has put up points at home in non-divisional games, logging 34, 30, 17, 26, 37, 31, 31 and 48 points in their last eight home games against non-divisional teams. Houston figures to give up some points and the Ravens are scoring their share of points at home. With some of their secondary still hurting, Baltimore could give up a few points as well. I'll call for a seven point victory and let the line decide which way I lean. BALTIMORE 27 HOUSTON 20


OAKLAND -6.5 Cleveland 44.5

I don't have any situations in this game. Numbers favor Oakland by about six points and predict about 47 points. These two played three years in a row here from 2005 to 2007 with Oakland winning two of the three but no game decided by more than three points. For Cleveland this is only their second road game of the season. Joe Haden and Alex Mack are questionable for this game. Haden is a big deal and if he doesn't play I would probably lean Oakland's way. I don't have much of an opinion on this game. OAKLAND 27 CLEVELAND 20


NEW ENGLAND -6.5 Dallas 55.5

I don't have any situations in this game. Numbers favor NE by just three points and predict about 60 points. These two last met in 2007 during NE's undefeated season when NE won 48-27 as a 5.5 point away favorite in Dallas. Dallas has now played in 10 straight games that have been decided by four points or less. They are also now 3-0 ATS on the road as a dog under Jason Garrett winning two of those three with the only loss the meltdown loss at the Jets to begin this season. The other two games were SU wins at the Colts and the Giants. NE has now scored 30 or more points in 13 straight regular season games. They haven't played a ton of good offenses at home the past few years but when they have they allowed 28 points to Indy last year and 27 to GB last year (without Rodgers). This year they allowed 21 to SD but SD turned the ball over multiple times deep in NE territory and once on downs as well. NE will be tested this week. Unlike last week Dallas has an offense that can match NE and has a defense that is just as good as the Jets, for all practical purposes. They also get numerous players back healthy this week including Miles Austin at WR, Felix Jones at RB, Orlando Scandrick at CB and Gerald Sensabaugh at S. Don't be afraid to look at the Cowboys on the money line in this game. DALLAS 31 NEW ENGLAND 28



New Orleans -4.5 TAMPA BAY 49.5

I don't have any situations in this game. Numbers favor NO by six points and predict about 52 points. NO has won here easily the last two years as road favorites. They won 38-7 as 10.5 point favorites in 2009 and 31-6 last year as five point road favorites. NO has now scored 30, 23, 34, 36, 17, 24, 34, 30, 34, 31, 20 and 25 points in their last 12 road games. TB, when playing at home against good offenses, has not faired very well. They have allowed at least 27 points in seven of their last 10 home games against good offenses. The Saints are too good offensively so unless TB can score their share of points I don't see them covering this spread. They are missing DT Gerald McCoy and RB LeGarrette Blount. NEW ORLEANS 30 TAMPA BAY 20


CHICAGO -2.5 Minnesota 41.5

Minnesota qualifies in a couple of fundamental rushing situations, which are 499-319-22, 538-394-23, 294-204-23 and 161- 86-8 (if they are getting more than three points). Chicago qualifies in a negative fundamental rushing situation, which is 130-59-8 and plays against them here. Numbers make this game a pick 'em and predict about 40 points. The Vikings have struggled here as of late, losing nine of the last ten games played here. Minnesota is simply the better team in this game. With a better offensive line, defensive line and secondary along with value and strong situations in their favor, they are the right side in this game. MINNESOTA 24 CHICAGO 17

[timbob]

Paul Leiner

100* Ravens -7

50* Over 46 49ers/Lions

[timbob]

Maddux Sports

20 Units Giants
10 Units Lions
10 Units Colts
10 Units Texans
10 Units Cowboys

[timbob]

tom stryker

100% guaranteed gut-check blowout best bet atlanta falcons

[timbob]

ATS Lock early NFL:

Washington +3
Detroit -4
Over 50 in buff/giants game

[timbob]

bookiemonsters

16-7-1 run

49ers +6

[timbob]

NFL Sharps Picks: Week 6

This is a compilation of what the top handicappers in the Las Vegas Hilton Super Contest are selecting each week.
Here's how to read the chart below:

- The first team is the sharps' pick.

- The first number is how many sharps are taking that team.

- The figure in the parantheses is the difference between the number of sharps taking that team versus the number of sharps betting against them.

- The second team is the opponent.

- The number at the end is the number of sharps taking the opponent.




Here's this week's Sharps picks:

Dallas 30 (-23) New England 7
Oakland 21 (-15) Cleveland 6
New Orleans 21 (-15) Tampa Bay 6
Baltimore 18 (-12) Houston 6
Buffalo 18 (-7) NY Giants 11
NY Jets 16 (-11) Miami 5
Green Bay 16 (-9) St Louis 7
Detroit 15 (-4) San Francisco 11
Carolina 13 (-8) Atlanta 5
Philadelphia 13 (EVEN) Washington 13
Chicago 12 (-4) Minnesota 8
Pittsburgh 9 (-4) Jacksonville 5
Indianapolis 7 (-1) Cincinnati 6





The generic sharp ticket - determined by largest pick margin - is Dallas, New Orleans, Oakland, Baltimore, and the Jets.

The Vegas house ticket - determined by Vegas' willingness to not move a line despite tons of money on the other side - is Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Cleveland, and the Giants.

Almost exactly 50 percent of the sharps (30 out of 61 entries) are on Dallas, which is the highest percentage on any side that I can remember.



contes1 18- 6- 1, IND, NYG, CLE, TB, NYJ
SAMS 18- 6- 1, GB, PHI, BAL, DAL, NO
SAl 17- 6- 2, GB, PHI, NYG, BAL, NO

[timbob]

Kelso

50 Unit Play - Green Bay Packers -14

[timbob]

Sports Handicapper King

3* Indianapolis +6

3* Tampa Bay +6

3* Chicago Bears -2.5

Free: Milwaukee Brewers ML

[timbob]

NORM HITZGES

DOUBLE PLAY
Dallas Cowboys

SINGLE PLAYS
Minnesota Vikings
St Louis Rams
Miami Dolphins
Oakland Raiders Over

[timbob]

Computer Kid Totals

Oakland OVER 44.5

Green Bay UNDER 47.5

Washington OVER 47

[timbob]

LT Profits


NFL

Eagles -2.5 -125
49ers +4 -104
Panthers/Falcons UNDER 50.5 -110
Colts +7 -120
Vikings +114 ML
Vikings/Bears UNDER 41.5 -105

[timbob]

Chase Diamond

50 Dimes St. Louis Rams +14.5

30 Dimes Philadelphia Eagles -2.5

40 Dimes San Francisco 49ers +4.5

30 Dimes Jacksonville Jaguars +13

[timbob]

Ocal Sports

4* CAR @ ATL Under 50.5

8* Eagles -1.5

4* Giants -3

4* Colts +7

4* Steelers -12.5

4* Saints -4.5

4* CLE @ OAK Under 44.5

5* Cowboys +7