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RICHIE CARRERA
Philadelphia -3 over WASHINGTON 25 Dimes
Popular pick: Yes, it is. But that is no reason to stay away from this one. I don't buy into the motivation factor, because while Philly will be fighting for their season, when is the last time the Skins were at home against a bitter rival touting a 3-1 record. Now, what I do buy into (to some degree) is statistics. The team with the better statistics USUALLY wins games. If not for a slew of Mike Vick mistakes this year and your typical serving of Andy Reid at head coach, the Eagles should have only 1 or 2 losses. They have dominated teams statistically this year and it is only a matter of time until they start compiling some wins for their efforts. I DO NOT think this Philly team is "great" or a "dream team". As I pointed out in my power rankings; Philly possesses talent at the skill positions. They are weak at both lines and bad at stopping the run and that usually doesn't bode well... Fortunately for them, they have an offense that SHOULD be able to compensate for their short-comings IF they can limit their mistakes. I guess this just goes to show that you can have all of the All Pro corners that you want, but if you can't stop the run, you have a problem.. Also, I know that I am late to this party, but employing an O-line coach as your Defensive Coordinator even though he has zero experience coaching defense is like hiring a community organizer to be the .... Never mind. At the root of this play is a very exploitable Redskins defense; one that Vick and McCoy should have no problem finding paydirt against. I actually think that this is a line that the Eagles can block and corners that Philly's receivers can beat one-on-one with ease. Washington has put together great Defensive numbers against the likes of Arizona, St. Louis, NYG and a battered Dallas team... I don't think that this trend continues as I am expecting a bit of a blowout. I think that this is a rare example of when the sharps move the same directions as the public, resulting in a 3 point line movement. Jump on the right side and let's bank a 25 dimer.
Jacksonville +13 over PITTSBURGH 10 Dimes
The Jags always play the Steelers close. More importantly, MJD gets to go up against a Pittsburgh defense that has had trouble stopping the run. Also, look for Jones-Drew to gash the Pittsburgh defense by hauling in passes out of the backfield. While I don't fully trust rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to solve the Steeler zone blitz, I do think that he is competent enough to limit his mistakes and get the ball out quickly. With a big game from MJD, I expect the Jags to (I hate saying this phrase) keep it close. This one breaks a few of my rules (Rookie QB on the road in hostile environment to name one example), but I think it is a one possession game in Pittsburgh today.
Indianapolis +7 over CINCINNATI 10 Dimes
While the Bengals are admittedly a much better team than I expected this season, they haven't faced pash-rushers like Mathis and Freeney. Indy has lost their last 4 games by 1 possession and this may be their chance to steal one on the road. I expect this to be a closer matchup than many expect with the Colts in position to win late. (Buy the hook if you must)
Philadelphia -3 over WASHINGTON 25 Dimes
Popular pick: Yes, it is. But that is no reason to stay away from this one. I don't buy into the motivation factor, because while Philly will be fighting for their season, when is the last time the Skins were at home against a bitter rival touting a 3-1 record. Now, what I do buy into (to some degree) is statistics. The team with the better statistics USUALLY wins games. If not for a slew of Mike Vick mistakes this year and your typical serving of Andy Reid at head coach, the Eagles should have only 1 or 2 losses. They have dominated teams statistically this year and it is only a matter of time until they start compiling some wins for their efforts. I DO NOT think this Philly team is "great" or a "dream team". As I pointed out in my power rankings; Philly possesses talent at the skill positions. They are weak at both lines and bad at stopping the run and that usually doesn't bode well... Fortunately for them, they have an offense that SHOULD be able to compensate for their short-comings IF they can limit their mistakes. I guess this just goes to show that you can have all of the All Pro corners that you want, but if you can't stop the run, you have a problem.. Also, I know that I am late to this party, but employing an O-line coach as your Defensive Coordinator even though he has zero experience coaching defense is like hiring a community organizer to be the .... Never mind. At the root of this play is a very exploitable Redskins defense; one that Vick and McCoy should have no problem finding paydirt against. I actually think that this is a line that the Eagles can block and corners that Philly's receivers can beat one-on-one with ease. Washington has put together great Defensive numbers against the likes of Arizona, St. Louis, NYG and a battered Dallas team... I don't think that this trend continues as I am expecting a bit of a blowout. I think that this is a rare example of when the sharps move the same directions as the public, resulting in a 3 point line movement. Jump on the right side and let's bank a 25 dimer.
Jacksonville +13 over PITTSBURGH 10 Dimes
The Jags always play the Steelers close. More importantly, MJD gets to go up against a Pittsburgh defense that has had trouble stopping the run. Also, look for Jones-Drew to gash the Pittsburgh defense by hauling in passes out of the backfield. While I don't fully trust rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to solve the Steeler zone blitz, I do think that he is competent enough to limit his mistakes and get the ball out quickly. With a big game from MJD, I expect the Jags to (I hate saying this phrase) keep it close. This one breaks a few of my rules (Rookie QB on the road in hostile environment to name one example), but I think it is a one possession game in Pittsburgh today.
Indianapolis +7 over CINCINNATI 10 Dimes
While the Bengals are admittedly a much better team than I expected this season, they haven't faced pash-rushers like Mathis and Freeney. Indy has lost their last 4 games by 1 possession and this may be their chance to steal one on the road. I expect this to be a closer matchup than many expect with the Colts in position to win late. (Buy the hook if you must)
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